Is it still economic to build a new coal-fired power plant in the U.S.? A real option analysis

In the U.S., virtually no new coal-fired power plants have been built in recent years. Both industry experts and academics seem to believe that no rational firm will build a new coal-fired plant. Will such a trend continue in the future? To provide insights into this question, we investigate the optimal decision of an electricity company with an irreversible and deferrable opportunity to build either a new coal-fired or natural gas-fired power plant as its new base-load resource. According to our real option analysis, the optimal decision depends on the location. In the case of the eastern U.S., it is optimal to choose a natural gas plant if a firm is given a choice among a new natural gas plant, a new coal plant and deferring the investment. However, contrary to the common sentiment in the industry and academia, building a new coal plant in the western U.S. is still more economical than building a new natural gas plant in the absence of emission pricing. Furthermore, introducing carbon pricing to western U.S. states, as California did, can substantially increase the probability that a firm will optimally choose a natural gas plant over a coal plant.     

Feeding management of dairy cattle affect grassland dynamics in an alpine pasture

The effect of different supplementary feeding rates for grazing cattle on high-altitude pastures dynamics was evaluated. A field experiment was carried out during three years in a subalpine pasture area of the Eastern Alps. The investigated pasture area was 40?ha, located between 1820 and 2230?m?a.s.l. Two paddocks were chosen in the experiment and two herds of 12 cattle each were kept in the two enclosures for 5 weeks. For the first herd (HS), the supplementary feeding rate was 4.8?kg?OM?head^?1 per day, while for the second herd (LS), the rate was 1.6?kg?OM?head^?1 per day. The amount of herbage consumed by each cattle was determined using the n-alkane technique. To monitor the pasture vegetation dynamics, eight metal exclusion cages were placed in each paddock to determine herbage growth, utilization rates, vegetation composition and animal grazing selectivity. Grazing behaviour of dairy cattle, in terms of herbage intake and species selection was affected by the different feeding rates. Cattle grazing Paddock HS consumed 1.9?kg?OM?day^?1 of herbage less than Paddock LS. In the LS paddock, cattle grazed higher phytomass rates. When the animals were fed by higher concentrate rates, a more selective grazing seemed to significantly increase the pasture necromass component. The lower grazing selectivity favoured the development of species as Nardus stricta and Deschampsia caespitosa, which are well known for their low palatability. Distinct vegetation dynamic patterns were observed, with a reduction of hair grass and an increase of legumes in the Paddock LS.     

基于景观适宜性的山地公园植物景观 评价研究——以贵阳黔灵山公园为例

以贵阳市黔灵山公园为研究对象，选取24个植物景观单元。以生态适宜、景观适宜、社会适宜为准则层，建立山地公园植物景观景观适宜性评价体系。运用主成分分析确定评价指标权重，克服以往植物景观评价赋权重的主观性，建立山地公园植物景观景观适宜性评价模型，得到不同植物景观的景观适宜性指数。结果表明：黔灵山公园在适宜范围内的植物景观有10个，占评价单元总数的41.6%，适宜性较差的有14个，乔灌比(数量)在1:11.2~1.7:1之间的植物群落景观适宜性较好。根据评价结果，提出了3点山地公园植物景观营建策略，以期为山地公园植物景观评价及营建提供理论指导。     

北京园林绿地6种树木的叶片和一年生枝中5种重金属含量比较

为了解不同园林树木对重金属的吸收情况，以北京市陶然亭公园、紫竹院公园、中科院植物园、马甸公园、皇城根遗址公园和营城建都滨水绿道不同环境绿地为样地，选择样地间共有的园林树木，采用ICP光谱仪测定了6种树木叶片和一年生枝条中重金属锌(Zn)、铬(Cr)、镍(Ni)、砷(As)和汞(Hg)的含量，以此为基础，采用隶属函数法将6种树木单位重量对5种重金属的综合富集能力进行排序，并对同树种叶片与当年生枝、5种重金属吸收量分别进行相关分析。结果表明：1)不同树种叶片和一年生生枝条单位重量中重金属含量有显著差异，且因重金属种类而异。Zn、As含量最高的为金银木，Cr、Ni、Hg含量最高的依次为圆柏、侧柏、丁香；丁香富集Zn、Cr、As的能力最低，白皮松富集Ni能力最低，侧柏富集Hg能力最低。2)树木叶片和当年生枝单位重量对5种重金属综合富集能力排序为：金银木＞侧柏＞圆柏＞油松＞丁香＞白皮松。其中，针叶树种中圆柏、侧柏、油松富集5种重金属的综合能力显著高于白皮松(P＜0.01)，阔叶树种中金银木吸收重金属的能力显著高于丁香(P＜0.01)。3)树木不同器官中重金属含量也不同，不同树种间叶片与枝条中仅Cr含量具有显著相关性，相关系数为0.461(P＜0.01)，其他4种元素均未达到显著水平。4)同树种叶片和当年生枝Cr和Ni吸收呈极显著相关性(P＜0.01)，其他元素吸收之间未呈现相关性。本研究结果对北     

中国菊花主题花展及其对行业发展的作用

以解决岩石园“如何设计”“为何设计”的问题入 手，通过分析国内外知名岩石园，从而得到当前岩石园规划设计 依据的类型，确定以高山生境特征作为设计依据。但高山生境在 城市中无法完全复制，因此仅以模仿其景观风貌特点作为设计依 据。以中国高山生境为例，通过对生长的高山植被景观风貌进行 提炼，得到高山植被外观风貌构建模式图；结合外观风貌特点， 提取高山植被景观元素特点和设计要点，通过植物种类替换，构 建出岩石园基于高山生境特征的植物造景设计模式     

让自然参与设计：一种基于自然演替的 城市自生群落改良设计途径

城市自生群落具有重要的生态服务功能与潜力，但因其外貌不被公众所接受而难以在城市公共空间中应用。将群落生态学和设计学相结合，探索一种介入栽培植物对城市自生群落进行改良，最终形成具有一定美学价值的植物群落的途径。实验以植物群落设计美学原理和种间竞争原理为依据，向已经演替1年的城市自生群落中引入63种栽培植物，按照分层的方式对群落进行改良。3年的观测结果表明，有61.9%的栽培植物可以在城市自生群落中定居并建立优势，能对76.7%的自生植物起到抑制作用，使55.8%的自生植物消失。相比城市自生群落，改良后的群落美观度提高29.4%，公众接受度提高24%，群落的物种丰富度提高至2.29倍。相比一般的人工植物群落，改良后的群落可以节约58.2%的建植成本，降低83.9%的浇水成本和67.8%的除草成本。实验证明改良设计是一种可行的群落设计途径，能有效提高群落的物种丰富度和美学价值，同时让自然参与群落设计过程，实现人与自然的合作。     

基于台风危害的厦门地区园林树木受损 原因研究

基于2016年9月16日1614号台风对厦门绿地的严 重影响，通过为期2个月对台风现场实地调研以及相关部门抢 险的数据统计，第一时间了解此次台风中厦门重要园林树种的 受害状况，分析树木在台风中的受损原因。台风灾害发生后给 厦门市的园林树木以及景观带来巨大的损害，因此对于厦门地 区园林树木受损原因的研究非常有必要。研究了受损原因后， 才可以在灾前以及灾后对重要的园林树木种进行栽培养护管 理，增加厦门绿化的抗灾能力以及灾后的及时恢复工作。     

气候障碍因子对城市绿化适生树种选择的 影响——以上海世博公园为例

通过对上海近30年的气候因子汇总分析，结合对上 海世博公园主要绿化树种生长状况调查和年度生物量计算，通 过典型相关性分析发现，极端高低温、强风和暴雨等5个气候 因子对树木的生长产生了不同程度的影响，有些因子严重阻碍 了树木的正常生长，成为障碍因子。经过10年的绿化实践验 证，上海世博公园对骨干树种的选择，以乡土树种为主，群落 结构较为稳定，且气候障碍因子对乡土树种的影响较小。在引 种外来树种时，采用气候相似植物区系法，结合植物耐寒、耐 热带图，把种源地划分为2个气候带和3个植物区系，并确定了 最南引种线，成功引种了红花槭等20种观花色叶乔木树种。     

全球价值链分工对国际经济周期协同性的影响研究

为考察全球价值链分工的宏观经济效应,本文基于2000—2014年全球102个经济体相关数据,探究了全球价值链贸易对国际经济周期协同性的影响。结果表明,全球价值链贸易深化了国际垂直型分工,显著提升了国际经济周期的协同性;无论是制造业还是服务业价值链贸易,对国际经济周期协同性都具有显著正向影响,侧面反映出服务业也在越来越深入地融入全球分工体系;价值链贸易对国际经济周期协同性的影响效应主要体现于发展中与发达经济体之间,发达经济体之间的经济周期协同性受其影响并不明显。     

Relationships between absenteeism,conservation group membership,and land management among family forest owners

Absentee landowners, or those who do not live on their forestland, own approximately 117 million acres of private forestland in the U.S. Thus, their land management decisions and activities influence the flow of forest-based goods and services. We explore the question of whether absentee family forest owners are less active land managers than resident landowners and whether membership in conservation organizations is associated with higher levels of land management activity by absentee owners. To examine these questions, we administered a mail survey to randomly-selected family forest landowners in Indiana. While we found some support for the contention that absentee owners are less active forestland managers than resident owners, we also found they are not necessarily inactive landowners. We found absentee owners were less likely to have: inspected their forestland for invasive plants, pulled or cut invasive plants, used herbicides to kill invasive plants, reduced fire hazard, or grazed livestock than resident owners. Absentee owners were more likely to be enrolled in the Indiana Classified Forest and Wildlands Program, a preferential forest property tax program. Absentee owners who are members of a conservation organization were more likely than absentee non-member owners to have undertaken a variety of land management activities, including: undertaking wildlife habitat improvement projects, inspecting their forestland for invasive plants, pulling or cutting invasive plants, enrolling in the Indiana Classified Forest and Wildlands program, and obtaining a management plan.