Green consumption behavior prediction based on fan-shaped search mechanism fruit fly algorithm optimized neural network

Predicting consumption behavior is very important for adjusting supplier production plans and enterprise marketing activities. Conventional statistical methods are unable to accurately predict green consumption behavior because it is characterized by multivariate nonlinear interactions. The paper proposes an optimized fruit fly algorithm (FOA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model for consumption behavior prediction. First, to address the problem of uneven search direction of FOA leading to insufficient search ability and low efficiency, the paper proposes a sector search mechanism instead of a random search mechanism to improve the global search ability and convergence speed of FOA. Second, to address the issue that the initial weights and hidden layer bias values of the ELM are randomly generated, which affects the learning efficiency and generalization of the ELM, the paper uses an improved FOA to optimize the weights and bias values of ELM for improving the prediction accuracy. Taking the green vegetable consumption behavior of Beijing residents as an example, the results show the optimization of the initial weight and threshold of ELM by the GA, PSO, FOA, and SFOA, the prediction accuracy of the GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, FOA-ELM, and SFOA-ELM models all surpass those of ELM. Compared with BPNN, GRNN, ELM, GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, and FOA-ELM models, the RMSE value of SFOA-ELM was decreased by 9.45%, 8.40%, 11.89%, 5.84%, 2.22%, and 2.69%, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the SFOA-ELM model in green consumption behavior prediction and provide new ideas for the accurate prediction of consumption behaviors of other green products with similar characteristics.     

协调度视角下长江流域产业转移效率研究

实现区域经济协调发展是当前我国在块集聚与点极化双重压力下面临的现实难题，长江经济带尤其是欠发达省份承接发达地区产业转移是解决该难题的必然路径选择。产业转移活动因区域主客体特征变量不同，呈现出典型的多发式转移和门槛转移特征，使得区域政策制定缺乏科学指导，陷入盲目拼政策红利的状态。结合效率模型及考虑熵权的经济社会发展协同度分析，测算了2004-2016长江经济带各省（市）年综合产业转移效率，并考察了门槛效应值及变化趋势。结果表明：在考察期内，长江经济带各省（市）产业转移效率提升较为明显，但不少省（市）存在不协调的阶段性平衡关系，且这种关系还未显露经济总量驱动下的协同发展能力。     

高质量发展下中国产业转型升级方向研究

产业不断转型升级是实现经济高质量发展的关键，从数量和质量两个维度可以总结出其具体路径。选取1985-2017年中国年度数据和1960-2017年美国年度数据，运用向量自回归模型对广义和狭义产业结构以及经济增长间的动态关系进行分析。结果表明，中美之间产业转型升级对经济发展的影响存在差异，据此可以得出高质量发展下中国产业转型升级方向，即拓展并细化产业转型升级维度;注重不同产业间的配比，尤其是生产性服务业和制造业配比;重视并确立制造业的根本地位;提升我国经济外向型程度。     

军民融合协同创新驱动产业园区高质量发展研究

军民融合产业园区高质量发展对于推进军民深度融合、在全国形成可复制可推广经验具有重要意义。军民融合协同创新通过促进新知识涌现、推进新产业集聚发展，最终汇聚经济发展新动能，驱动园区高质量发展。在提出军民融合协同创新驱动园区高质量发展的机理与组织框架基础上，将发展模式归纳为以分享经济为背景的资源共享模式、以新型研发机构为核心的第三方模式、以产业联盟为核心的产业链拓展模式和以交易平台为核心的“PPP”模式，最后提出相关对策建议。     

Environmental regulations in private and mixed duopolies: Taxes on emissions versus green R&D subsidies

In this article, we compare two kinds of environmental regulations—emissions taxes and green R&D subsidies—in private and mixed-duopoly markets in the presence of R&D spillovers. We show that a green R&D subsidy is better (worse) than an emissions tax when the green R&D is efficient (inefficient), irrespective of R&D spillovers, whereas the existence of a publicly owned firm encourages the government to adopt a subsidy policy. We also show that the optimal policy choice depends on R&D efficiency and spillovers. In particular, when green R&D is inefficient and the spillover rate is low (high), the government should choose an emissions tax and (not) privatize the state-owned firm. When green R&D is efficient, however, an R&D subsidy is better, but a privatization policy is not desirable for society, irrespective of spillovers.     

中国农业农村发展七十年:成就、经验与展望——中国农业经济学会第十次会员代表大会暨2019年学术研讨会综述

2019 is the 70 th anniversary of the founding of the people’s Republic of China and the key year for implementing the rural vitalization strategy.Summarizing the great achievements made by agriculture and rural areas in the past 70 years will have an important theoretical value for promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas and the strategy of rural revitalization.Under such circumstances,the 10 th member congress and 2019 academic seminar of CAAE was successfully held in Beijing.The key to promote rural revitalization lies in deepening rural reform,focus on the property right system and market-oriented allocation of factors,and establish a system and mechanism of free circulation and equal exchange between urban and rural areas.In order to promote the organic connection between small-scale peasant and the modern agriculture,it is necessary to speed up the development of agriculture social service industry.Finally,it is suggested to adhere to the two-wheel drive of rural revitalizationand new urbanization,promote the effective coverage of rural public services,and improve the rural governance mode of combining autonomy,rules of law and virtue.     

基于SWOT-AHP的工业仓储用岛开发利用策略研究——以舟山群岛新区为例

本文采用SWOT分析法对舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用的优势、劣势、机遇和挑战进行定性分析,再通过AHP法进行定量分析,构建SWOT-AHP模型。通过计算舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用策略四边形,确定舟山工业仓储用岛开发利用应选择开拓型战略,即发挥自身优势、抓住外部机遇。     

区际产业转移关联溢出与产业高质量发展——对电子设备制造业的实证检验

基于我国区际产业转移大背景，使用1999-2016内地年30个省市、27个二位数工业行业数据定量测度区际产业转移，选择产业关联较强的电子设备制造业为研究对象，使用投入产出法识别关联产业、测算其关联产业溢出，利用2004—2016年内地28个省市面板数据构建模型对关联产业溢出效应与电子设备制造业转移的关系、产业转移中的关联产业溢出与电子设备制造业高质量发展的关系分别进行了实证检验。研究发现：①2014年中国工业空间基尼系数出现拐点，总体工业由之前的分散转移转为新的集中转移，而电子设备制造业仍处在向中部地区和西南地区集聚的分散转移中；②电子设备制造业转移中的产业关联溢出效应确实存在，且促进了电子设备制造业生产效率的提高和产业高质量发展；③产业转移中第三产业关联溢出效应对电子设备制造业分散转移的作用高于工业，但工业的关联溢出对电子设备制造业生产效率提升的作用明显高于第三产业。     

要素自由流动能实现区域协调发展吗——基于“协调性集聚”的理论假说与实证检验

经济活动的空间集聚是当代经济内涵式增长的源泉,现有文献多从要素流动视角来考察经济集聚过程中的区域差异。然而,若将要素流动引入区域生产函数进行推导,可以发现非区域性要素集中规模的扩大,既能提高要素流入区域的劳动生产率,也能提高要素流出区域的要素收益率,基于此,本文以“协调性集聚”为核心概念,通过拓展现代集聚模型来构建要素在自由流动中走向协调发展的理论假说。实证结果进一步显示,虽然我国发展要素在大规模流向东部发达地区,并呈现进一步向超大城市和城市群集聚的趋势,但要素流动在提高要素流入区域劳动生产率的同时,也显著提高了要素流出区域的要素收益率,并从需求侧激发了要素流出区域的市场潜能,要素流动在要素配置效率不断提高的过程中呈现“协调性集聚”的趋势。因此,发达的要素流入区域通过优化公共服务体系提高劳动生产率,欠发达的要素流出区域通过建立健全要素自由流动机制提高要素回报率和收益率,是新时代我国形成市场主导型区域协调发展机制的有效途径。