“十四五”时期推进新旧动能转换的思路与策略

“十四五”时期是国际经济秩序重塑的关键期、新一轮科技革命和产业变革由孕育发展向形成高潮的关键过渡期、我国跨过高收入门槛的关键期和改革攻坚的关键时期,也是我国新旧动能接续转换的关键时期。加快新旧动能转换对于促进经济持续稳定健康增长、抢占新一轮科技革命机遇和实现高质量发展等意义重大,是我国转换发展方式、调整经济结构、建设现代化经济体系和实现体制机制转型的重要途径。必须深化对新旧动能转换内涵和特征的认识,厘清思路,明确新旧动能转换重点;深化体制机制改革,激发新旧动能转换活力;培育主体,做优做强一批新旧动能转换领军企业和优质中小企业;加快集群建设,形成一批新旧动能转换高地;创新优化要素支撑,夯实新旧动能转换基础;提升对外开放水平,拓展新旧动能转换空间。     

Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by the opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational wind farms. This paper describes a novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safety-critical access conditions during crew transfers. Methods of generating density forecasts of significant wave height and peak wave period are developed and evaluated. It is found that boosted semi-parametric models outperform those estimated via maximum likelihood, as well as a non-parametric approach. Scenario forecasts of sea-state variables are generated and used as inputs to a data-driven vessel motion model, based on telemetry recorded during 700 crew transfers. This enables the production of probabilistic access forecasts of vessel motion during crew transfer up to 5 days ahead. The above methodology is implemented on a case study at a wind farm off the east coast of the UK.     

Quantifying landscape externalities of renewable energy development: Implications of attribute cut-offs in choice experiments

Renewable energy is worldwide seen as a key element necessary to address climate change. However, finding socially acceptable locations for renewable energy facilities and the accompanying infrastructure increasingly often faces fierce opposition. This paper quantifies the landscape externalities of renewable energies employing a choice experiment. In addition, it is investigated how accounting for non-compensatory choice behavior, i.e. attribute cut-offs, affects welfare measures and subsequently policy recommendations. The empirical application is Germany where we conducted a nationwide survey on the development of renewable energies. We first show that cut-off elicitation questions prior to the choice experiment at least partially influence preferences. We further find that most participants state cut-off levels for attributes. Many are, however, at the same time willing to violate the self-imposed thresholds when choosing among the alternatives. To account for this effect, stated cut-offs are incorporated into a mixed logit model following the soft cut-off approach. Model results indicate substantial taste heterogeneity in preferences and in the use of cutoffs. Also, welfare estimates are substantially affected. We conclude that welfare changes from renewable energy development could be strongly underestimated when cut-offs are ignored.     

Determinants of energy use in the informal food sector

Although enterprises in the informal food sector require energy to transform, cook and process food, energy-use patterns in this sector are not well understood by policymakers and the local-level authorities who regulate their trading activities. This paper reviews relevant literature and presents empirical data collected in Rwanda, Senegal and South Africa on the use of traditional and modern energy sources by informal food sector operators. Our sample includes male- and female-operated enterprises in the urban centres of three African countries where the informal food sector is important, not only for providing the convenience of affordable and readily prepared meals, but also as a source of income for women and men in developing countries. Multiple fuel-use and energy-stacking strategies are common among informal food enterprises and policy needs to acknowledge this if it is to intervene in ways that will benefit both enterprises and regulators.     

Myopia and saliency in renewable resource management

An important challenge in managing renewable resources is to understand why owners and managers sometimes make decisions that deplete resources and future earnings, such as when graziers allow pastures and land condition to be degraded. In this paper, we test two potential reasons for unsustainable management practices, myopia and salience, with each explaining why resource managers may exhibit impatience in harvest decisions. Myopia is associated with decision makers placing lower weight on future outcomes than would be implied by their pure time preference. Salience is associated with overweighting of consumption ‘now’, implying inconsistency in time preferences. To test for these effects on renewable resource management, an incentivised, dynamic field experiment was carried out with rangeland grazing enterprise owners in north‐eastern Australia that related management choices with uncertain rainfall events to both profits and land condition over time. Results demonstrate that respondents exhibiting myopia/salience in their choices tended to achieve lower cumulative scores in the experiment, as well as lower land conditions on their properties as measured with remote sensing data. Our results explain why there may be persistent optimisation failures by resource owners that reduce both profits and environmental outcomes.     

On the rebound: estimating direct rebound effects for Australian households

Reducing dependence on fossil fuels by decreasing energy consumption is a common environmental policy. One mechanism used to achieve this is to encourage increased energy efficiency. However, improving efficiency may have an opposing effect and cause an increase in energy consumption if the intensity of use changes. This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect. We estimate direct rebound effects for energy use in Australia based on both aggregate residential energy use data and on household energy expenditure data. Our approach implements a new methodology developed by Hunt and Ryan (2014, Catching on the rebound: Why price elasticities are generally inappropriate measures of rebound effects. Surrey Energy Economics Discussion Paper Series SEEDS 148; 2015, Energy Economics 50, 273) that explicitly relates energy service use with energy source demand and directly incorporates measures of efficiency changes. The results indicate that the rebound effect is relatively high for energy use by Australian households. Due to the unique nature of our household data set, we can examine the influence of demographic and housing characteristics. We find that low‐income households and households with vulnerable members have the largest rebound effects. The relatively large rebound effects found here suggest that consumers gain from efficiency by improved energy services, and thus, policy targeting energy efficiency is not likely to be successful at reducing energy consumption.     

Inter‐firm R&D collaborations and green innovation value: The role of family firms' involvement and the moderating effects of proximity dimensions

The present paper investigates the relationship between the involvement of family firms in R&D collaborations aimed at developing green solutions and the value of resulting innovations. To dig into this relationship, the moderating effects of two proximity dimensions (i.e., geographical distance and technological relatedness) are also assessed. Analyses are based on a sample of 156 joint patents classified into the “Alternative energy production” field, as defined by the International Patent Classification Green Inventory and successfully filed at the United States Patent and Trademark Office in the period 1997–2010 by publicly listed companies. According to our conjectures, results reveal a positive relationship between the involvement of family firms and green innovation value. Moreover, our findings show that this relationship is hindered when partners are geographically distant or technologically proximate. Eventually, we contribute to the literature on green innovation by unveiling under which conditions inter‐firm R&D collaborations lead to more valuable innovations.     

基于模态应变能密度理论的网架结构损伤识别方法

为了研究网架结构的损伤检测方法,根据应变能密度理论,提出采用单元模态应变能密度差值作为网架结构损伤识别指标的方法,以损伤单元模态应变能密度差值的大小初步确定单元的损伤程度。分析了5种具有代表性的损伤工况,并在数值计算结果中引入了白噪声。结果显示,在一阶模态下,针对单损伤、多损伤和轻微损伤、严重损伤等不同损伤工况,损伤杆件的模态应变能密度差值均为高值。因此,该方法可以有效识别出网架结构的损伤位置,根据损伤单元的模态应变能密度差值大小初步确定单元的损伤程度,且在一定的噪声水平下具有较强的鲁棒性,对网架结构损伤识别具有参考价值。     

Can Industrial Restructuring Significantly Reduce Energy Consumption? Evidence from China

This article uses China’s input–output (I-O) tables in 2002, 2007, and 2012 to estimate the real energy consumption of each sector after the I-O adjustment. The relationship between the sectors is further analyzed using the utility analysis method based on ecological network analysis. The empirical results show that although the traditional energy-intensive industries are the major energy-consuming sectors from a direct energy consumption perspective, large energy consumption by energy-intensive industries is transferred to downstream industries through intermediate products after the I-O adjustment. Specifically, the building industry and service sector are the sectors with the highest real energy consumption. With the upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure, the proportion of energy-intensive sectors in China is declining. However, the development of the service sector and infrastructure construction still requires large intermediate inputs. Thus, industrial restructuring cannot significantly reduce China’s total energy consumption.     

基于运行规划的能源综合服务系统能效管理研究

以浙江电网企业转型现代能源综合服务的具体战略与发展规划为研究背景，针对能源综合服务系统的运行规划目标，开展基于运行规划的能源综合服务系统能效管理研究。从系统工程的视角出发，以能源流为纽带，基于多尺度能源系统建模方法，构建了能源综合服务系统模型，并结合系统综合能效，采用粒子群优化算法来优化系统各设备单元的运行策略，以实现基于运行规划的最优能效管理。通过能源综合服务系统模型计算表明，大规模清洁能源和可再生能源的接入，可以明显提高系统综合能效；随着区域用户总冷量和/或总热量需求占总电力需求的比值增大，系统最优综合能效逐渐增大；与使用内燃机、燃气轮机及汽轮机为原动机的热电联产系统相比，使用燃料电池为原动机的热电联产系统可以使能源综合服务系统综合能效更优。