川西北高原藏区农村贫困化分异机制探测

[目的]客观揭示农村贫困化地域分异机制,为科学推进川西北高原藏区精准扶贫创新途径、综合战略和认真贯彻落实中央治藏方略提供参考依据。[方法]应用地理探测器模型、GIS空间分析与地统计方法等方法,探测川西北高原藏区贫困村单位面积GDP分异的主导因素,揭示农村贫困化分异机制,提出不同贫困化地域类型的扶贫政策措施。[结果]影响川西北高原藏区农村贫困化分异的主导因素包括到主要交通道路距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、土地利用、年均温度和海拔高程等,各因素对贫困村经济发展分异的解释力分别为80. 76%、12. 82%、8. 82%、5. 45%和3. 96%;贫困村经济发展贫困化的分异机制存在明显差异,可归纳为交通区位约束型、自然环境约束型和经济区位约束型等三大类型;农村贫困化驱动机制下的贫困村精准扶贫政策措施亟需因地制宜、科学推进、讲求实效,有序推进精准扶贫战略。[结论]精准扶贫应分类指导、重点突破,尤其加强贫困村交通、水利、公共基础设施建设和特色农牧业产业培植,注重多种扶贫模式的综合集成。     

中医药文化融入高等中医药院校意识形态工作探究

当前抓紧加强和改进高校意识形态工作具有极端重要性和现实紧迫性.中医药文化之意蕴与高校意识形态教育目标、内容价值相通,更与高校意识形态工作理念、方法内在相契.通过将中医药文化有机融入意识形态工作,进一步加强宣传阵地、实践阵地建设,协同发力,有助于实现高等中医药院校意识形态工作创新发展.     

农机社会化服务采纳、禀赋差异与农村经济相对贫困缓解

进入以缓解相对贫困为重点的后扶贫时代，农村经济相对贫困问题仍不容忽视。农机社会化服务作为小农户与现代农业有机衔接的桥梁，对于推进乡村振兴战略和脱贫攻坚有序衔接具有重要作用。文章讨论的核心议题是农机社会化服务采纳如何缓解农村经济相对贫困，并尝试建立了“农机社会化服务采纳——禀赋差异缩小——农村经济相对贫困缓解”的理论分析框架。为此，文章首先对农机社会化服务采纳影响农村经济相对贫困的作用机制进行了理论分析，然后利用2750份河南省农户问卷调查数据，运用Logit模型，实证检验农机社会化服务采纳对农村经济相对贫困的影响，并通过替代核心自变量和变更样本的方法进行稳健性检验，运用PSM模型和IVProbit模型以及ERM模型进行内生性讨论，最后通过中介效应模型对其作用机制进行验证。结果表明，农机社会化服务采纳对农村经济相对贫困具有显著负向影响，缓解了农村经济相对贫困。考虑内生性后，结论仍具有稳健性。进一步的机制验证发现，农机社会化服务采纳通过缩小劳动力禀赋差异和技术禀赋差异，缓解农村经济相对贫困，劳动力禀赋差异缩小和技术禀赋差异缩小的中介效应占比分别为21.22%和7.36%。可见，应将完善农机社会化服务供需体系纳入农户相对贫困治理机制考虑范畴，引导农户从传统家庭化生产转向现代社会化生产，扩大农机社会化服务采纳范围；同时完善就业服务等相关配套体系以吸纳释放的弱劳动力，促进农户收入增长，缓解农村经济相对贫困。     

高管校友关系与业绩预测披露行为

本文考察高管对个人社会关系的依赖是否对上市公司的信息环境产生冲击;具体的,本文系统论证了高管校友关系和上市公司信息披露的重要载体—管理层业绩预测之间的关系.结果显示,当公司与其供应商的高管之间存在校友关系或校友关系更广泛时,公司发布管理层业绩预测的概率和频数均显著下降,即高管校友一定程度上取代了业绩预测,成为了供应链上的信息流通渠道.进一步分析显示,当公司的私有信息成本较高或经营环境更不确定时,校友关系对业绩预测的替代作用更强;而当供应商议价能力较强时,这种替代作用显著下降.此外,本文发现高管校友关系也显著降低了业绩预测发布的自愿性和及时性.最后,本文发现校友关系引起的业绩预测披露减少,削弱了外部信息使用者获取公司层面信息的程度,表现为股价同步性和分析师预测分歧度加大.本文结果表明,高管对个人社会关系的依赖降低了上市公司的信息环境质量,可能使中小投资者处于更弱势的地位,一定程度上损害了市场公平性.本文将个人社会关系的经济影响拓展到信息环境领域,为社会关系如何影响公开信息披露行为提供了新的经验证据.     

Go beyond tokens: Number and type both matter

Drawing upon token theory and critical mass theory, this study examines whether all female directors are equally considered as tokens. We argue that inside female directors are less likely than outside female directors to be considered as tokens because they are more powerful and influential. Using a 10-year sample of Chinese publicly listed firms on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2008 to 2017, we find that even one inside female director can make a significant contribution to corporate social responsibility (CSR), while outside female directors do not have a positive effect on CSR until their number reaches the critical mass (i.e., three). The results suggest that the predictions of token theory and critical mass theory vary across female director types. These findings contribute to the current literature by integrating female director typology with their numerical representation to explain their token status.     

网络直播购物情境下的拟剧化营销——基于抖音直播平台的分析与诠释

网络直播购物逐渐成为一种新的网络营销与消费方式。对于该模式的剖析,有助于对网络直播购物这一新兴事物进行全景化的解构与阐释,更好地理解与把握该模式的本质与趋势。本文基于第三方立场与视角,以戈夫曼拟剧理论为基础,锚定抖音平台为实践场景,尝试诠释拟剧理论在网络直播购物情境中的新变化、新形式、新内涵。研究选择Top100网络直播主播为分析对象,采用后台运营数据、页面数据爬虫、人工观察分析等多元数据采集与分析方法,对整个网络直播购物场景进行分析。研究发现,网络直播购物呈现出鲜明的拟剧化营销特质,各类要素间存在循环强化的运行机理,消费者的购物行为有着显著的集体偏好,且主体间的协同合作机制促进了消费的延续。该发现有助于对拟剧化营销运行机制、拟剧理论的新场景及网络直播购物这一新兴商业模式进行客观辩证的思考。     

EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data

ABSTRACT

This article identifies the breakdowns in the covariance of three benchmark crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and investigates the changes of market connectedness across the breakdown periods. As the crude oil futures are traded in different regions, this article eliminates the non-synchronous trading data by employing the Vector Moving Average structure and the Bayesian data augmentation approach, which keeps the integrity of original data without changing its properties. The results show that there are significant breaks in the covariance structure of crude oil futures markets. The breakdown periods are consistent with the periods when the market volatilities are at high level and the returns are volatile. The changes of market connectedness are independent of the covariance states, which supports the globalization hypothesis for the crude oil market. The results also suggest that there is more information flow out of the WTI than to the WTI during the sample period, particularly during the breakdown periods in 2008–2009.     

服务营销:3G时代企业致胜的法宝

随着3G时代的到来,电信企业之间的竞争将更加激烈.电信企业要想在激烈的竞争环境中立足,拥有自己的市场,必须以服务营销为战略研究重点,建立以用户为中心的服务营销体制,建立包括企业利润、企业的成长性,用户忠诚、用户满意、提供给用户的产品与服务的价值,员工能力、满意、忠诚及效率在内的电信服务利润链.     

正视现状调整策略发展东盟贸易

中国—东盟贸易自由区将是“全球第三大市场”。随着双边贸易谈判进行，东盟贸易对中国经济影响越来越大。同时，东盟贸易也给中国企业带来无限商机。为此，我们应该积极进行应对，调整我们的策略，尽量在东盟贸易中赢得市场。