Macroprudential regulations and bank profit efficiency: international evidence

This study examines the impact of macroprudential regulations on bank profit efficiency. The latter is being estimated with a production frontier function using a cross-country dataset of more than 3000 banks from over 130 countries during 2013–2018. The results show that macroprudential regulatory policies diminish bank efficiency. This finding applies to both borrower-targeted and financial institutions-targeted policies, and it is robust to the inclusion of controls for microprudential regulations, financial consumer protection policies, and other county-level characteristics in the regressions.

     

Recent evidence on the performance and riskiness of contrarian portfolios

The paper assesses the most recent performance, persistence and riskiness of contrarian portfolios. Evidence from the major world and European market of France shows that such portfolios appear profitable on average, but their performance is not persistent from one holding period to the next; hence there exist inherent risks, especially for investors that remain in markets for up to two consecutive investment periods. These risks, as measured by the CAPM (traditional, and less traditional versions that are meant to capture timing) and the Fama–French model, are not systematic and they are not related to market timing. Overall, taking only long positions in normal markets and hedged positions following market shocks seems to be the most promising route for contrarians in France.     

The relevance of information and trading costs in explaining momentum profits: Evidence from optioned and non-optioned stocks

Considerable evidence from many countries suggests momentum strategies generate profits. These have been difficult to rationalise and evidence on the sources of such profitability is inconclusive. We utilise a sample of optioned stocks, characterised by high liquidity, high market capitalisation and fewer short sales constraints and compare results with control samples of non optioned stocks chosen on the basis of market value, turnover and bid–ask spread. The sample characteristics, and the fact that derivatives improve the impounding of information into prices, enable us to draw conclusions about the causes of momentum profits. While we find that short sales constraints are not the major driver of profitability and that most momentum profits disappear using two transactions costs measures of the bid–ask spread, one not previously used, the persistence of some momentum profits indicates that the market underreacts even to the most publicly available information.     

Liquidity Commonality in the London Stock Exchange

Abstract:  A number of events such as the international market crash of October 1987 and the 1997 East Asian crisis show that individual firm liquidity is affected by market-wide factors. However, research in systematic liquidity is still at an embryonic stage and given the gap in the literature, the paper offers first time evidence (to the best of our knowledge) on the presence of systematic liquidity in the UK using FTSE100 and FTSE250 stocks. The unique setting of the London Stock Exchange as regards changes in trading regimes, allows an original answer as to whether changes in the nature of market making from obligatory to non-obligatory, affect commonality in liquidity. Results indicate that commonality is quite strong for FTSE100 stocks at individual and portfolio level, while for the FTSE250 it is strong only at portfolio level. Overall commonality is on average similar across trading regimes, irrespective of the nature of the provision of liquidity.     

What should we know about momentum investing? The case of the Australian Security Exchange

This paper investigates Australian momentum strategies and their performance stability separately employing two samples a) the S&P/ASX 200 constituents and b) all market securities; for different time periods and market states. To avoid transaction intensive strategies, non-overlapping portfolios are employed. Results show that momentum performance is not sample specific and is positive in all cases, yet at varying magnitudes for different states and years. The profits are robust to univariate and multivariate risk considerations, seasonality (which is however present), and to different starting months.     

Mesdames et Messieurs,momentum performance is not so abnormal after all!

This article provides evidence regarding the performance of momentum investment strategies that is consistent with the Neoclassical Theory. More specifically, while momentum investment returns appear orthogonal to systematic risk in the extant literature, this article illustrates that they are due to correlated changes of hedge portfolio systematic risk exposures with market conditions. Momentum portfolios are excellent market timers in both expanding and contracting markets. Their returns however are generally not abnormal when timing is considered in an augmented unconditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), while the standard version erroneously considers them to be so, possibly explaining why momentum studies have so far rejected the Neoclassical Theory.     

Contrarian Profits and the Overreaction Hypothesis: the Case of the Athens Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the existence of contrarian profits and their sources for the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). The empirical analysis decomposes contrarian profits to sources due to common factor reactions, overreaction to firm‐specific information, and profits not related to the previous two terms, as suggested by Jegadeesh and Titman (1995). Furthermore, in view of recent evidence that common stock returns are related to firm characteristics such as size and book‐to‐market equity, the paper decomposes contrarian profits to sources due to factors derived from the Fama and French (1993, 1996) three‐factor model. For the empirical testing, size‐sorted sub‐samples that are rebalanced annually are employed, and in addition, adjustments for thin and infrequent trading are made to the data. The results indicate that serial correlation is present in equity returns and that it leads to significant short‐run contrarian profits that persist even after we adjust for market frictions. Consistent with findings for the US market, contrarian profits decline as one moves from small stocks to large stocks, but only when market frictions are considered. Furthermore, the contribution to contrarian profits due to the overreaction to the firm‐specific component appears larger than the underreaction to the common factors.     

Short-term Contrarian Strategies in the London Stock Exchange: Are They Profitable? Which Factors Affect Them?

Abstract:  This paper provides evidence on short-term contrarian profits and their sources for the London Stock Exchange. Profits are decomposed to sources due to factors derived from the Fama and French (1996) three-factor model. For the empirical testing, size-sorted sub-samples are used, and adjustments for infrequent trading and bid-ask biases are also made. Results indicate that UK short-term contrarian strategies are profitable and more pronounced for extreme market capitalization stocks. These profits persist even when the sample is adjusted for market frictions, risk, seasonality, and irrespective of whether equally-weighted or value-weighted portfolios are employed. The most important factor that drives contrarian profits appears to be investor overreaction to firm-specific information.