Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state‐level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one‐third over the next century.     

Industry Self‐Regulation: A Game‐Theoretic Typology of Strategic Voluntary Compliance

We analyse the possibility of successful industry self‐regulation in terms of the strategic interactions between industry members and government. In particular, this article presents a game‐theoretic typology of generic self‐regulatory scenarios and evaluates these in terms of the resulting likelihood of collective compliance. We discuss the advertising, press and life insurance industries in the UK as examples of the scenarios. Conclusions for corporate and public policy are offered.     

The Regulation of Dietary Supplements Within the United States: Flawed Attempts at Mending a Defective Consumer Safety Mechanism

The use of dietary supplements in the United States has escalated in the past decade, driven by the public's desire to exert control over their health and by the mistaken belief that the safety of dietary supplements is assured by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In fact, the marketing of largely unregulated supplements presents significant risks to public health.     

Financial Transaction Taxes,Market Composition,and Liquidity

We use the introduction of a financial transaction tax (FTT) in France in 2012 to test competing theories on its impact. We find no support for the idea that an FTT improves market quality by affecting the composition of trading volume. Instead, our results are in line with the hypothesis that a lower trading volume reduces liquidity and in turn market quality. Consistent with theories of asset pricing under transaction costs, we document a shift in security holdings from short‐term to long‐term investors. Finally, we find that moderate aggregate effects on market quality can mask large adjustments made by individual agents.     

The Consumption–Income Ratio,Entrepreneurial Risk,and the U.S. Stock Market

The owners of small noncorporate businesses face substantial and largely uninsurable entrepreneurial risk. They are also an important group of stock owners. This paper explores the role of entrepreneurial risk in explaining time variation in expected U.S. stock returns in the period 1952–2010. It proposes an entrepreneurial distress factor that is based on a cointegrating relationship between aggregate consumption and income from proprietary and nonproprietary wealth. This factor, referred to here as the cpy residual, signals when entrepreneurial income is low in relation to aggregate consumption and other forms of income in the economy. It is highly correlated with cross‐sectional measures of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial and default risk, and it has considerable forecasting power for the expected equity premium. However, the correlation between cpy and the stock market started to decline at the beginning of the 1980s. The decline in this correlation can be associated with increased stock market participation and with the progress of U.S. state‐level bank deregulation. This pattern is consistent with the view that entrepreneurial risk became more easily diversifiable in the wake of U.S. state‐level bank deregulation.