土地市场扭曲如何影响制造业出口产品质量升级*——基于土地市场交易数据和制造业企业数据的实证分析

地方政府“以地谋发展”的策略在促进各地区制造业大规模集聚和出口贸易快速增长的同时，也势必会给企业出口产品质量带来深刻影响。本文综合利用中国土地市场网城市土地交易数据、中国工业企业数据、中国海关进出口产品数据和中国城市面板数据，实证检验了土地市场扭曲对企业出口产品质量升级的影响，并对其内在机制进行了探讨。研究发现：中国城市建设用地配置存在明显的工业偏向性，进而导致工业用地价格被低估，产生工业用地应得收益大于实际价格的反向扭曲问题。这种反向扭曲可通过抑制技术进步、阻碍产业结构高级化、弱化集聚经济效应等机制显著降低制造业企业出口产品质量。土地市场扭曲对企业出口产品质量升级的影响具有明显的异质性特征。具体而言，土地市场扭曲不利于一般贸易企业与混合贸易企业出口产品质量提升，但对加工贸易企业出口产品质量提升具有促进作用。土地市场扭曲对企业出口产品质量升级的抑制作用由东到西依次递增。土地市场扭曲不利于外资企业和国有企业出口产品质量提升，对集体企业及民营企业的影响不显著。     

Farm Capital Investment and Deviations from the Optimal Path

We identify farms’ optimal investment path in capital assets and compare it with their actual investment to assess the direction and extent of deviation from the optimal investment. A probit model is further used to investigate the determinants of the probability that a farmer over‐ or under‐invests in capital assets. We use a panel dataset of Dutch dairy farms over the period 2003–2013, and find that most farms under‐invest in capital assets during the study period. Although the number of farms that had over‐invested in capital assets is relatively small, these farms account for the biggest share of total investment in capital assets. The probit results show that liquidity, agricultural support payments, age, land tenure and standard output size are important variables explaining the likelihood of over‐and under‐investment.     

Size of nested cities

Models of cities based on conventional spatial market theory are unable to replicate a realistic size distribution. The stochastic process approach to size distribution, which assumes proportionate growth, does not provide an economic foundation for spatial trades. There is an apparent irreconcilability. We propose that since there is a continuum of equilibria in models of spatial markets with endogenous location, proportionate growth can work as equilibrium selection. We present computations for an urban configuration that has not been presented in the literature before. A small city locates inside a larger city's agricultural supply zone. This generates a larger variation in city size that may include a realistic size distribution.     

The effects of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choices

Prior work has examined how, in the pursuit of long‐term goals, past goal behavior influences present goal choices. Instead, the present work focuses on how anticipating future goal behavior, specifically future goal‐inconsistent behavior, influences present goal choices. For example, how anticipating overspending on an upcoming vacation influences current spending behavior. The authors propose that the effect of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choice is moderated by the perceived changeability of the future behavior. When future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as changeable, consumers tend to imagine it away, and it has no systematic effect on present goal choices. However, when future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as unchangeable, consumers accept it as a matter of fact, and systematic effects occur. Specifically, some consumers not only fail to buffer against future goal‐inconsistent behavior's negative consequences, but tend to exacerbate those consequences by increasing their goal‐inconsistent behavior in the present. Four studies examine this surprising behavior, using an individual difference (the response‐to‐failure scale) to identify when and for whom it occurs. The studies demonstrate the role of perceived changeability using various manipulations across multiple critical goal domains such as spending, eating, and academics.     

Improving forecasting performance using covariate-dependent copula models

Copulas provide an attractive approach to the construction of multivariate distributions with flexible marginal distributions and different forms of dependences. Of particular importance in many areas is the possibility of forecasting the tail-dependences explicitly. Most of the available approaches are only able to estimate tail-dependences and correlations via nuisance parameters, and cannot be used for either interpretation or forecasting. We propose a general Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting tail-dependences and correlations as explicit functions of covariates, with the aim of improving the copula forecasting performance. The proposed covariate-dependent copula model also allows for Bayesian variable selection from among the covariates of the marginal models, as well as the copula density. The copulas that we study include the Joe-Clayton copula, the Clayton copula, the Gumbel copula and the Student’s $t$-copula. Posterior inference is carried out using an efficient MCMC simulation method. Our approach is applied to both simulated data and the S&P 100 and S&P 600 stock indices. The forecasting performance of the proposed approach is compared with those of other modeling strategies based on log predictive scores. A value-at-risk evaluation is also performed for the model comparisons.     

Is Oil Palm Expansion a Challenge to Agroecology? Smallholders Practising Industrial Farming in Mexico

Agroecology has become a powerful alternative paradigm for rural development. In contrast to conventional approaches, this paradigm shifts the emphasis from technology and markets to local knowledge, social justice and food sovereignty, to overcome rural poverty and environmental degradation. However, the spread of this approach faces several obstacles. This paper deals with one of these obstacles: the ‘preference’ of smallholders for industrial farming. We specifically analyse the widespread uptake up of oil palm by smallholders in Chiapas. Contrary to agro‐ecological assumptions, oil palm proved favourable to smallholders in Chiapas because of historical and contemporary state–peasant relations and the advantageous economic circumstances within the oil palm sector. Based on this research, we identify four challenges for agroecology: (i) the existence of contradictory interests within the peasantry as a result of social differentiation; (ii) the role of the state in making conventional development models relatively favourable to smallholders; (iii) the prevalence of modernization ideologies in many rural areas; and (iv) the need for this paradigm to acknowledge smallholders' agency also when engaged in industrial farming. These challenges need to be tackled for agroecology to offer viable alternatives in a context of agro‐industrialization.     

Experimental investigation into the role of trust in collusion

Trust has traditionally been regarded as conducive to ethical decision making. However, empirical studies on the relationship between trust and ethical decision making are rare, especially those concerning the negative effects of trust. Therefore, our study aimed to provide empirical evidence in this area. An experiment was designed to investigate whether trusted parties are more likely than non‐trusted parties to enter into a collusion that will have unfair consequences for a third party. The results showed that trusted parties are significantly more likely to collude than are non‐trusted parties. Furthermore, an ancillary analysis revealed the mechanism of trust. First, participants with a stronger need to collude were the most likely to collude in the trust group. Second, experimental and hypothetical settings generated different results, and we suspect that real harm plays a vital role. Overall, we conclude that the absence of trust serves as an impediment to collusion.     

Variety in the video game industry: An empirical study of the Wundt curve

This study analyzes the effect of variety on consumer utility using historical behavioral information for 1,397 consumers participating in 729,049 unique rounds of play. We show that consumers generally exhibit a preference for variety as part of their gameplay utility. The relationship between variety and utility is nonlinear and follows, at least for some types of variety, an inverted u‐shape as predicted by the Wundt curve. Our results represent the first such evidence on the importance of variety in video gaming, which has significant implications for consumption through optimization of gameplay utility to satisfy the demand for variety.     

Academic leadership and commercial activities at research institutes: German evidence

This paper focuses on entrepreneurship by academic leaders. With the use of patents, inventions, and spin‐offs to measure commercialization, and directors, research group leaders, and business owners as academic leaders, results, using a sample of more than 2,500 German researchers, show differences across academic leaders and commercialization. Findings for spin‐offs are different from those for patents and inventions. Academic leaders in sciences were more likely to commercialize. Doctoral degrees helped patents by business owners and spin‐offs by group leaders, whereas female business owners and female group leaders faced challenges patenting and inventing, respectively. For business owners, age increased the likelihood of patenting but lowered spin‐offs.     

The impact of conservation tillage on maize yield and input demand: the case of smallholder farmers in north‐west Ethiopia

This study analyses the economics of conservation tillage (CT) with respect to its effect on maize yield and chemical fertiliser, herbicide, and female and male labour demand. We estimate production and input demand functions using seemingly unrelated regressions on plot‐level cross‐sectional farm household data collected in the north‐west of Ethiopia. A two‐step control function is applied to address potential endogeneity bias due to the inclusion of the CT adoption decision as an explanatory variable. Our results show that CT increases maize yield and chemical fertiliser demand. Additionally, the results show that the adoption of CT reduces female and male labour required for crop production. However, this is achieved through the increased use of herbicides, which might have an undesirable health and environmental effects.