Problems with detecting assumed mediation using the hierarchical multiple regression strategy

In human resource management (HRM) and allied fields (e.g., organizational behavior, management, and industrial and organizational psychology), tests of mediation are frequently conducted using the hierarchical multiple regression (HMR) strategy of Baron and Kenny [Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1173–1182]. Although previous research has identified a number of serious problems with this approach, the present study adds to the literature by identifying yet additional problems with its use in inferring the existence of mediation. Using a statistical simulation, we found that certain patterns of correlation coefficients guarantee inferences about mediation, whereas other patterns preclude such inferences. On the basis of various analyses including logistic regression and inspection of three-dimensional plots, we identified patterns of correlation coefficients needed to satisfy Baron and Kenny's [Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1173–1182] conditions for inferring mediation. The same patterns have no necessary relation to actual causal connections among variables in mediation models. Moreover, as a consequence of the failure of the HMR strategy to detect mediating effects, many instances of actual mediation in HRM and allied fields may have gone undetected. In view of the foregoing, we conclude that the HMR strategy should no longer be used in testing for mediation.     

Statistical Thinking in Empirical Enquiry

This paper discusses the thought processes involved in statistical problem solving in the broad sense from problem formulation to conclusions. It draws on the literature and in-depth interviews with statistics students and practising statisticians aimed at uncovering their statistical reasoning processes. From these interviews, a four-dimensional framework has been identified for statistical thinking in empirical enquiry. It includes an investigative cycle, an interrogative cycle, types of thinking and dispositions. We have begun to characterise these processes through models that can be used as a basis for thinking tools or frameworks for the enhancement of problem-solving. Tools of this form would complement the mathematical models used in analysis and address areas of the process of statistical investigation that the mathematical models do not, particularly areas requiring the synthesis of problem-contextual and statistical understanding. The central element of published definitions of statistical thinking is "variation". We further discuss the role of variation in the statistical conception of real-world problems, including the search for causes.     

职务犯罪指定居所监视居住的适用： 统计分析 ——以1694份判决书为样本

指定监视居住是一种以强制措施满足侦查需要的特殊制度,具有重要的学术史意义,其发展经验对于公安机关指定监视居住的完善,对于监察留置程序的完善都具有重要意义。对全国1694份判决书的研究表明,职务犯罪指定居所监视居住数量呈“山峰”形状,在2014年下半年达到顶峰之后迅速减少,办案级别主要为基层检察院,省际区域性差别较大,适用指定监视居住的案件主要为行贿受贿案件,适用理由主要为本地无固定住所以及办案需要,有五成多的嫌疑人被指定监视居住15天内,指定监视居住平均长达23.63天。其存在的问题是,指定监视居住未发挥替代逮捕的功能,一些案件指定监视居住时间过长,且存在非法指定监视居住、非法讯问的问题。可见,最高人民检察院控制指定监视居住适用案件范围的意图得到了充分的体现,需要确立针对贿赂犯罪的特殊程序,对于满足办案需要的人身自由限制手段应当严格规范其时间限度、讯问程序。     

效果逻辑与因果逻辑：两类中小企业创业者的再验证——环境不确定性感知与创业自我效能感的调节效应

现有研究认为，创业经验差异是专家创业者倾向于选择效果逻辑和创业新手倾向于选择因果逻辑的重要原因。基于问卷调查数据，运用层次回归分析方法探讨两类中小企业创业者（创业专家与创业新手）的创业决策逻辑差异，以及创业自我效能感与环境不确定性感知对创业者与创业决策逻辑选择的调节效应。结果表明，创业专家明显倾向于选择因果逻辑而非效果逻辑，而创业新手明显倾向于不采用因果逻辑。环境不确定性感知水平和创业自我效能感越高（低），创业者越倾向于选择效果（因果）逻辑。最后，环境不确定性感知水平和创业自我效能感均显著负（正）向调节创业者选择效果（因果）逻辑。     

A causal analysis framework for land-use change and the potential role of bioenergy policy

We propose a causal analysis framework to increase understanding of land-use change (LUC) and the reliability of LUC models. This health-sciences-inspired framework can be applied to determine probable causes of LUC in the context of bioenergy. Calculations of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for LUC associated with biofuel production are critical in determining whether a fuel qualifies as a biofuel or advanced biofuel category under regional (EU), national (US, UK), and state (California) regulations. Biofuel policymakers and scientists continue to discuss to what extent presumed indirect land-use change (ILUC) estimates should be included in GHG accounting for biofuel pathways. Current estimates of ILUC for bioenergy rely largely on economic simulation models that focus on causal pathways involving global commodity trade and use coarse land-cover data with simple land classification systems. This paper challenges the application of such models to estimate global areas of LUC in the absence of causal analysis. The proposed causal analysis framework begins with a definition of the change that has occurred and proceeds to a strength-of-evidence approach that includes plausibility of relationship, completeness of causal pathway, spatial co-occurrence, time order, analogous agents, simulation model results, and quantitative agent–response relationships. We discuss how LUC may be allocated among probable causes for policy purposes and how the application of the framework has the potential to increase the validity of LUC models and resolve controversies about ILUC, such as deforestation, and biofuels.     

浅谈反倾销对我国的影响及应对措施

20世纪90年代以后,西方国家经济普遍不景气,经济增长率低,失业率居高不下,使全球经济发展缓慢.因此各国为了保护本国产品的国内市场,频繁运用反倾销措施来限制外国产品进入.同时,由于乌拉圭回合协议的生效,要求各国大幅度削减关税和取消进口数量限制,各国为抵消这一谈判结果对本国工业的冲击,利用反倾销自由裁量权,纷纷采用反倾销这一便利而有效的措施.我国遭受反倾销调查的案件太多,这不仅严重影响了我国出口效率,也损害了我国的经济和政治形象.因此,我们要就其特点采取有效的应对措施加以解决.     

Do entrepreneurs from institutionally distinct countries apply different decision logic when internationalizing their companies? A multiple-case analysis

Literature on entrepreneurs’ decision logic has either focused on effectuation or causation, lacking comparison and analysis of logics when founders come from different institutional environments. This paper presents an exploratory study examining the behaviors, beliefs, and decisions of entrepreneurs (all typical drivers for new market entries), considering those institutional differences. Research was based on the comparison of two case studies of young software companies, one from Brazil and one from Germany, each founded by two entrepreneurs with similar academic and professional backgrounds. Results indicate that apparently, business environment affects founders’ decision logics with much more strength than the institutional environment.     

美国反倾销因果关系的五种裁定方法分析

倾销同产业损害之间因果关系的存在,构成实施反倾销措施的必要条件之一。反倾销现行规则关于因果关系认定标准的宽松界定,导致具体裁定过程往往无法有效地证明因果关系的存在。本文以美国为例,分析了其在反倾销实践中使用的五种因果关系裁定方法。该五种方法均存在一定的缺陷导致因果关系的裁定失去了实际意义     

Corporate effectuation: Entrepreneurial action and its impact on R&D project performance

Innovative products are widely recognized as an important source of competitive advantage. However, many companies have difficulties finding efficient and successful approaches to different types of R&D projects, particularly those that involve a high level of innovativeness. Therefore, the present study moves effectuation theory from the entrepreneurial context to R&D research. First, the characteristics of an effectual approach in the context of R&D projects are developed and differentiated from those of conventional prediction-based strategies (causation). Second, using a thorough qualitative and quantitative scale-development process to capture particularities of effectual and causal dimensions in the R&D context, expert interviews and a pilot study (123 R&D projects), the study develops a multi-factor measurement model of effectuation and causation. These measures are validated in a follow-up study with a larger sample of 400 projects. Third, the new measures are applied to test two central hypotheses: (a) effectuation is positively related to success in highly innovative contexts, (b) causation approaches are beneficial in projects with low levels of innovativeness. Overall, this study moves the effectuation logic from the entrepreneurial to the corporate R&D context, captures its particularities, and investigates its performance outcomes.     

调整转型期的中国房地产市场——波动特征、原因及调控走向

当前中国的房地产市场开始进入调整转型期,正确看待和认识调整期中房地产市场的发展具有重要的现实意义.本文在分析调整转型期中房地产市场运行特征的基础上,分析了房地产市场产生波动的原因,并有针对性地提出我国房地产市场今后的调控走向.