Semistatic hedging and pricing American floating strike lookback options

We price an American floating strike lookback option under the Black–Scholes model with a hypothetic static hedging portfolio (HSHP) composed of nontradable European options. Our approach is more efficient than the tree methods because recalculating the option prices is much quicker. Applying put–call duality to an HSHP yields a tradable semistatic hedging portfolio (SSHP). Numerical results indicate that an SSHP has better hedging performance than a delta-hedged portfolio. Finally, we investigate the model risk for SSHP under a stochastic volatility assumption and find that the model risk is related to the correlation between asset price and volatility.     

Functional Itô calculus†

We extend some results of the Itô calculus to functionals of the current path of a process to reflect the fact that often the impact of randomness is cumulative and depends on the history of the process, not merely on its current value. We express the differential of the functional in terms of adequately defined partial derivatives to obtain an Itô formula. We develop an extension of the Feynman-Kac formula to the functional case and an explicit expression of the integrand in the Martingale Representation Theorem. We establish that under certain conditions, even path dependent options prices satisfy a partial differential equation in a local sense. We exploit this fact to find an expression of the price difference between two models and compute variational derivatives with respect to the volatility surface.     

Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion

Cap-and-trade programs such as the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) expose firms to considerable risks, to which the firms can respond with hedging. We develop an intertemporal stochastic equilibrium model to analyze the implications of hedging by risk-averse firms. We show that the resulting time-varying risk premium depends on the size of the permit bank. Applying the model to the EU ETS, we find that hedging can lead to a U-shaped price path, because prices initially fall due to negative risk premiums and then rise as the hedging demand declines. The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) reduces the permit bank and thus, increases the hedging value of the permits. This offers an explanation for the recent price hike, but also implies that prices may decline in the future due to more negative risk premiums. In addition, we find higher permit cancellations through the MSR than previous analyses, which do not account for hedging.     

Do firms lease to hedge? CEO risk-taking and operating lease intensity

Operating leases are used extensively for financing, but their ability to separate ownership and use also creates hedging opportunities. We investigate whether firms recognize such opportunities by examining the relation between chief executive officer (CEO) risk-taking incentives and the use of operating leases. Consistent with firms using operating leases to hedge, we find higher CEO risk-taking incentives lower operating lease intensity. To address endogeneity, we use the adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 123R as an exogenous shock to option compensation, dynamic panel generalized method of moments, simultaneous equations, and change regressions. Our results are robust to placebo and alternative tests.     

The untold story of commodity futures in China

We investigate the behavior of commodity futures risk premia in China. In the presence of retail-dominance and barriers-to-entry, the term structure and momentum premia remain persistent, whereas hedging pressure, skewness, volatility, and liquidity premia are distorted by time-varying margins and strict position limits. Furthermore, open interest, currency, and inflation premia are sensitive to institutional settings. The observed premia cannot be attributed to common risks, sentiment, transactions costs, or data-snooping, but are related to liquidity, anchoring, and regulation-induced limits-to-arbitrage. We highlight the distinctive features of Chinese futures markets and assess the challenges posed to theories of commodity risk premia.     

Hedging costs and joint determinants of premiums and spreads in structured financial products

Evaluating more than 317,000 discount certificates in the German secondary market, we find that premiums and spreads are endogenous and negatively related but depend on different key determinants. The fundamental determinants of the premiums are mainly profit-related, that is, dividends of the underlying, issuers’ credit risk, lifecycle effect, and competition, whereas hedging costs are less important. However, initial hedging costs (IHC) are priced into the premium in the case of large inventory changes. The spread is mostly determined by hedging costs and risk components, such as IHCs, rebalancing costs, volatility, scalper risk, and overnight gap risk—but also by dividends.     

兼容性制度竞争:双层对冲与地区制度的嵌套设计北大核心

地区制度的兴起增加了全球治理机制的复杂性。竞争性多边主义理论强调制度竞争会导致国际机制的碎片化和规则冲突。制度聚合理论则认为制度背景会强化规则的一致性,甚至形成制度服从。这种冲突—聚合的二分法不足以分析地区制度与多边制度之间关系的复杂现实。作者提出一个双层对冲的分析框架,以解释地区制度与核心多边制度间的联系机制;一方面,地区成员要通过建立地区制度寻求外部选项,实现对现有多边制度的制衡。另一方面,地区成员又离不开现有多边制度,需要借用现有的多边制度资源来解决地区制度建设中的机会主义问题。为了实现双层对冲,地区成员国会根据地区制度的系统冲击效应和投资报偿结构,设计不同的制度嵌套。作者比较了金融救助领域的欧洲稳定机制、清迈倡议多边化以及拉美储备基金等地区金融安排,其结果符合预期。双层对冲框架下的兼容性制度竞争有利于推动国际制度的渐进变迁,限制了大国在国际秩序转型中的冲突烈度,为世界政治的和平权力转移提供了可能。     

中美玉米期货市场功能效率比较

价格发现与套期保值是期货市场的基本功能,能够反映期货市场的运行效率。通过对比中美贸易摩擦前后期货市场的价格发现和套期保值功能,分析中美玉米期货市场效率间的差距,探究我国玉米期货市场运行效率低的原因。利用格兰杰(Granger)因果分析、协整检验、分位信息份额模型、套期保值比率及绩效分析方法,定量对中美两国2013—2019年玉米期货及现货的数据进行分析,结果表明,中国玉米期货市场存在较强的价格发现功能,但套期保值绩效不佳。使用前沿分位信息份额模型和滚动格兰杰因果法分析中美两国期现货市场动态关系的区别,发现中国仅存期货市场对现货市场的单向引导,而美国在中美贸易摩擦前表现为玉米期现货市场具有相近的引导能力,套期保值效率较高,中美贸易摩擦增强了其现货市场对期货市场的引导能力,降低了期货市场运行效率。从期现货市场双向引导关系视角来看,中国玉米期货市场效率低的原因主要是现货市场的信息不完全、发展不完善,期现货市场缺少长期稳定的双向引导关系抑制了期货市场功能发挥。中国应全面加强期货市场建设,提升期货市场定价效率,推动农产品期货市场快速健康发展。