论审计证据的选择:说服性抑或结论性

本文阐述了说服性审计证据与结论性审计证据的实质,从审计程序的性质、时间和范围入手,分析了说服性审计证据的形成原因。说服性而非结论性的审计证据是注册会计师和财务报表使用者等多方选择的结果,注册会计师只能为财务报表不存在重大错报提供合理保证。充分性和适当性是对审计证据说服性特征的度量。自觉遵守职业道德规范、严格遵循审计准则的规定和切实贯彻质量控制制度是注册会计师获取说服性审计证据的三大措施。     

The determinants of the price impact of block trades: further evidence

This article extends previous literature which examines the determinants of the price impact of block trades on the Australian Stock Exchange. As previous literature suggests that liquidity exhibits intraday patterns, we introduce time of day dummy variables to explore time dependencies in price impact. Following theoretical developments in previous literature, the explanatory power of the bid–ask spread, a lagged cumulative stock return variable and a refined measure of market returns are also examined. The model estimated explains approximately 29 per cent of the variation in price impact. Block trades executed in the first hour of trading experience the greatest price impact, while market conditions, lagged stock returns and bid–ask spreads are positively related to price impact. The bid–ask spread provides most of the explanatory power. This suggests that liquidity is the main driver of price impact.     

Commentary: Morality and workability ­ a rejoinder to O'Riordan

This paper is about understanding the rhetoric of precaution and the practice of decision-making in areas of environmental controversy. It untangles the rhetoric, as established in documented agreements referring to precaution, from the constituent ideas that embody it, as characterized by those who deliberate on its application. By analysing the ways in which the rhetoric of precaution is framed within these documents it is possible to identify different elements that make up the principle in theory. By focussing on the constituent ideas behind the precautionary principle it is possible to move forward from the stalemate of rhetoric that could become the focus of attention itself.     

调取的作为偷税证据的资料应不应退还?

税务机关可以对纳税人实施调账检查,但必须在3个月内完整退还调取的所有资料。如果部分应作为证据的资料没有退还,是否违反了这一规定？税务机关已做出的税务处理及处罚决定是否有效？碰到类似问题应如何处理？本文通过案例进行了分析。     

银行效率的决定因素：跨国实证

本文基于1990—2009年间68个主要国家和经济体的面板数据，从管理效率、市场竞争性和盈利能力三个基本方面对影响一国银行业效率的相关因素进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：从宏观经济政策来看，保持宏观经济的持续稳定增长，稳步推进资本账户开放，将有助于提高一国银行业的整体效率；从银行产业发展来看，银行业效率的提高需要在保持适度资产规模和产业集中度的基础上，防止银行信贷的过度扩张和银行危机的发生；从制度文化发展来看，加强产权保护，促进社会信用文化水平的提升，将有助于一国银行业效率的整体提升。     

Incompetency training: Theory, practice, and remedies

“Incompetency training” includes formal and informal instruction that consciously (purposively) or unconsciously imparts knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and behavior (including procedures) that are useless, inaccurate, misleading, and/or will lower performance outcomes of the trainee versus no training or training using alternative training methods. “Imparts” in the definition refers to exposing a trainee to incompetency training; such exposure is not a guarantee that the training increases the trainee's incompetence. This editorial is to stimulate research interest among scholars in incompetency training theory, evidence, and the efficacy of remedies. The editorial offers an early workbench model of incompetency training theory. The theory includes the proposition that executives and associates in firms, academia, and government organizations consciously as well as unknowingly offer incompetency training in many contexts. Increasing trainees' vigilance and ability to recognize exposure to incompetency-training may help trainees to decrease the effectiveness (impact) of exposures to incompetency training—advancing incompetency training theory and knowledge of incompetency training practice may be necessary conditions for remedying negative outcomes that follow from trainees receiving such training. Available evidence supports the first proposition and, to a limited extent, the second proposition.     

证据理论在信息网络系统信任管理决策中的运用

信任度评价是信息网络系统信任管理决策的基础和前提,是不确定信息多属性群决策领域的前沿课题之一。本文采用德尔菲法（Delphi）对影响信息网络系统信任管理的各种因素进行了深入分析,确立了信息网络系统信任度评价指标体系,在此基础上,考虑到该评估问题的复杂性、不确定性,提出了基于D—S证据理论的评价方法,通过实例分析验证了方法的可行性,为完善信息网络系统信任管理决策提供了新的思路与方法。     

Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties’ competition

We propose a new methodology for predicting electoral results that combines a fundamental model and national polls within an evidence synthesis framework. Although novel, the methodology builds upon basic statistical structures, largely modern analysis of variance type models, and it is carried out in open-source software. The methodology is motivated by the specific challenges of forecasting elections with the participation of new political parties, which is becoming increasingly common in the post-2008 European panorama. Our methodology is also particularly useful for the allocation of parliamentary seats, since the vast majority of available opinion polls predict at national level whereas seats are allocated at local level. We illustrate the advantages of our approach relative to recent competing approaches using the 2015 Spanish Congressional Election. In general, the predictions of our model outperform the alternative specifications, including hybrid models that combine fundamental and polls models. Our forecasts are, in relative terms, particularly accurate in predicting the seats obtained by each political party.     

美国科技政策学研究计划进展分析与启示

美国国家科学基金会于2006年设立了科技政策学研究计划（SciSIP）,经过十多年发展,在数据与方法研究以及共同体建设方面取得了重要进展。聚焦于SciSIP计划及其历年项目成果,对SciSIP计划发展历程进行总结,对SciSIP计划的研究成果和面临的挑战进行分析,以期为中国推进科技政策学研究及“科技政策学”这一新兴学科建设提供建议。     

企业应对反倾销的会计信息证据效力保障机制理论框架研究

首先阐述了企业应对反倾销会计信息证据效力保障机制的研究意义,明确了该机制研究的理论基础是由一个整合理论框架,以及严谨的概念基础和良好的创新语境等组成。然后,对国内外研究现状进行了动态分析,把国内学者相关研究的新进展和成效,国外经典的研究方法体系和关注企业策略性行为对反倾销的影响,战略性"反倾销管理"理念,作为设计我国企业应对反倾销会计信息证据效力保障机制的借鉴,从企业战略层面及相应的制度配置与协调上,构建了与我国企业应对反倾销相适应的会计信息证据效力保障机制。