中国家庭股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响——来自CHFS的微观证据

近年来针对股市资产价值变动与消费关系的研究多采用宏观数据，难以揭示股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的细节。为克服以上缺陷，文章利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据分析股市资产价值变动对中国居民消费的影响。实证结果表明：（1）股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响总体较弱，其中市值变动的财富效应主要体现在改善性消费上，而对饮食等日常必须消费和奢侈品消费影响较小，这可能与我国居民的收入结构和投资方式有关；（2）随着年龄增长，居民的收入分布和资产配置倾向发生改变，股市资产价值变动对不同年龄居民消费的影响呈现先减小后增大的U型分布。研究结论揭示了股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的分布特征，为今后股市改革方向提供了建议。     

Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis

Although optimal monetary policy stabilizes food inflation theoretically, empirical studies remain limited not only in the context of volumes and the estimation approaches, but are focused on selected advanced and emerging countries to the neglect of Africa where poverty and dominance of food in the consumption basket are more pronounced. We provide empirical evidence in the context of South Africa using quantile regressions. Rising food prices are destabilized even further by restrictive monetary policy; a finding that has ramifications for inflation targeting, especially given that a quarter of the country’s population is food poor.     

广东省县域农业生产效率分析——基于2015-2019年揭阳市5县域DEA模型为例

农业生产效率提升是实现农业现代化的重要手段。本文以《揭阳市统计年鉴(2015-2019)》的农业相关数据,从县域的视角研究揭阳市农业生产效率,运用DEA模型对揭阳市5个县域的3个投入指标和1个产出指标进行实证分析。结果显示,2015-2019年揭阳市农业生产效率均属于DEA无效,总体效率提升并不明显,且各县域呈现发展不平衡的状态,仅惠来县位于生产前沿面上,普宁市的农业生产效率最低,规模报酬属于递减态势。因此,恰逢“十四五”谋划之时,对揭阳市各县域农业生产效率做出分析研究,为现阶段提升揭阳市农业生产效率提出有参考价值的建议,为广东省县域农业生产效率分析提供范本。     

Catching up with the Americans

This paper develops an international version of the consumption-based capital asset pricing (CCAPM), which we refer to as “catching up with the Americans.” Previous CCAPM research develops the concept of “catching up with the Joneses,” where a representative economic agent exhibits higher marginal utility of consumption as a result of higher past per capita consumption in his own country. Catching up with the Americans, on the other hand, is an international habit-preference hypothesis. It extends the idea of catching up with the Joneses by stating that consumers of non-U.S. countries gain higher marginal utility of consumption as a result of higher past American consumption growth. Contrary to much of the CCAPM literature, we test this version of the model using long bond rates rather than equity returns. However, like most of the previous research on the CCAPM, the catching up with the Americans model fails to explain the relationship between consumption and asset returns.     

An analysis of option pricing under systematic consumption risk using GARCH

An issue in the pricing of contingent claims is whether to account for consumption risk. This is relevant for contingent claims on stock indices, such as the FTSE 100 share price index, as investor’s desire for smooth consumption is often used to explain risk premiums on stock market portfolios, but is not used to explain risk premiums on contingent claims themselves. This paper addresses this fundamental question by allowing for consumption in an economy to be correlated with returns. Daily data on the FTSE 100 share price index are used to compare three option pricing models: the Black–Scholes option pricing model, a GARCH (1, 1) model priced under a risk-neutral framework, and a GARCH (1, 1) model priced under systematic consumption risk. The findings are that accounting for systematic consumption risk only provides improved accuracy for in-the-money call options. When the correlation between consumption and returns increases, the model that accounts for consumption risk will produce lower call option prices than observed prices for in-the-money call options. These results combined imply that the potential consumption-related premium in the market for contingent claims is constant in the case of FTSE 100 index options.     

Household Surveys,Consumption, and the Measurement of Poverty

Household surveys are playing an increasingly important role in the measurement of poverty and well-being around the world. The Living Standards Measurement Study, which was begun in the World Bank under the guidance of Graham Pyatt in 1979, has played an important role in this movement. Its surveys are widely used within the Bank to measure consumption-based poverty, and survey data are now the exclusive basis for the global poverty counts. This paper discusses a number of unresolved issues in using consumption-based surveys for measuring well-being, including the choice of a money-metric versus welfare-ratio approach, the collection of suitable price information, the effects of measurement error on estimation, and methods for correcting per capita consumption for the demographic structure of the household.     

Costs of financial instability, household-sector balance sheets and consumption

Extant work on costs of financial instability focuses on fiscal costs and declines in aggregate GDP following banking crises. We estimate effects of banking and currency crises on consumption in 19 OECD countries, showing consumption plays an important role in the adjustment following a crisis, and effects are not captured solely by the impact of crises on standard consumption determinants, income and wealth. Additional effects, attributable to factors such as time-varying confidence, uncertainty and credit rationing, are aggravated by high and rising leverage, despite financial liberalisation easing liquidity constraints. High leverage implies that banking crises taking place now could have greater incidence than in the past.     

Got milk? The rapid rise of China’s dairy sector and its future prospects

This paper synthesizes recent research and new empirical findings to build a more comprehensive understanding of developments in China’s dairy sector. China’s tremendous rise in dairy demand has been driven by several mutually reinforcing factors: including rapid income growth, promotion by the government and dairy industry, changes in urban lifestyles, and the development of new, more sophisticated marketing channels. Domestic milk output has grown to satisfy rising demand largely by increasing the dairy herd. Substantial increases in productivity have been achieved through technology adoption, but there is evidence that the torrid growth has created inefficiencies because adaptations to marketing rules, infrastructure, and institutions have not kept pace with the changing environment. These results suggest there is ample room for future growth in both domestic milk production and dairy demand, but multinational firms and imported products will likely play and increasing role as China’s dairy market continues to develop.     

Environmental standards as barriers to trade

This paper examines the case of a good, polluting in consumption, whose pollutive content is restricted by a government with strong environmental policies. When foreign producers are unable to comply with the restrictive environmental standard of such a country, to which they wish to export, they often allege that those standards constitute illegal barriers to free trade. An example of such a good is gasoline, excessively pollutive formulations of which are prohibited from importation into the United States by the 1970 Clean Air Act. Rather than banning them, such imports should be taxed, along with the domestically produced substitute good, according to their respective pollutant contents. This would foster economic efficiency and should be more acceptable to foreign producers than the outright prohibition mandated by the Clean Air Act. The results of this paper reaffirm the argument in a previous article in this journal (Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 29 (1995) 187), though the countries’ roles in the two papers are reversed, that free trade and Pigouvian environmental policies increase international welfare.     

消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差

本文放松了理性经济人假设,在行为经济学双曲线贴现模型框架下,以"自我控制"认知偏差及相应的模型参数设定对东西方消费文化差异进行了技术表达,进而阐明了消费过度(欧美国家)和消费不足(东亚国家)这两类消费行为偏差的形成机制。本文采用全球48个国家和地区1978—2007年的面板数据,以儒家虚拟变量和性生活指数作为消费文化的替代变量检验了文化与消费的关系。结果表明,在解释东西方消费率差异时,预防性储蓄等传统理论的解释力远低于不可观测的国家个体效应。儒家虚拟变量和性生活指数能分别解释国家个体效应的28%和58%。这表明消费文化等不随时间改变的个体因素比传统变量更能解释各国居民的消费差异。实践层面上,双曲线贴现模型中锁定技术能有效纠正"自我控制"认知偏差,从而消解儒家文化对消费的深度抑制,可为扩大内需政策创新提供思路启发和技术支撑。