Managing Expectations

The idea that monetary policy is principally about “managing expectations” has taken hold in central banks around the world. Discussions of expectations management by central bankers, academics and by financial market participants frequently also include the idea that central bank credibility is imperfect. We adapt a familiar macroeconomic model so as to discuss key concepts in the area of expectations management. Our work also exemplifies a model construction approach to analyzing the dynamics of announcements, actions, and credibility that we think makes feasible a wide range of future investigations concerning the management of expectations.     

中央银行沟通的金融市场响应──基于股票市场的事件研究

本文使用事件研究法分析我国中央银行沟通行为对股票价格走势的影响。研究发现,影响确实存在且影响方向和力度与央行沟通方式以及股票市场背景有关。具体而言:(1)书面沟通影响显著,口头沟通则无明显作用;(2)宽松性政策信息沟通产生了正向影响,紧缩性信息沟通影响为负;(3)沟通事件的影响主要体现为一种短期作用,并伴随着即时效应、预知效应和滞后效应;(4)在熊市或牛市的不同市场背景下,央行沟通对股价的影响存在非对称性。结果表明,央行的沟通手段对金融市场有重要影响。     

Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy

The rational expectations revolution made clear that a complete macro model requires a specification of the government's economic policy. We argue that monetary policy should be conducted in such a way that the market can predict policy actions. An implication of market success in predicting policy actions is that interest rates move ahead of the policy actions, and such a timing relationship may appear to some as the central bank following the market instead of leading it. Another implication of the market predicting policy actions is that nominal interest rate changes provide no useful information to the central bank about the strength of aggregate demand or inflationary expectations. Finally, failure of the market to predict policy actions reflects a problem that needs to be addressed.We explore the theoretical implications of a monetary policy that is completely specified and perfectly understood by the market. We construct a bare-bones model to illustrate the key concepts. Finally, we conduct an empirical investigation of these issues, especially in the context of monetary policy since 1988, when the establishment of the federal funds future market made available well-defined market information on expectations about Fed policy actions. We find that when the intended funds rate is changed, interest rates over the maturity spectrum respond to news measured by changes in the one-month-ahead funds futures yield but do not respond to the anticipated component of the change in the intended funds rate.     

Nominal GDP futures targeting

Central banks have recently done a poor job of stabilizing the path of nominal expenditures. The adverse demand shock of 2008–2009 led to a severe recession in the United States and Europe. Monetary policy could be greatly improved with a regime of “targeting the forecast,” or setting policy so that the expected growth in nominal GDP is equal to the central bank's target growth rate. This goal could be accomplished by setting up a nominal GDP prediction market and then adjusting the monetary base to stabilize nominal GDP futures prices. The market, not central banks, would set the level of the monetary base and short-term interest rates under this sort of policy regime. Modest adjustments in such a regime could address many previous criticisms of futures targeting.     

央行货币政策报告文本信息、宏观经济与股票市场

本文利用金融情感词典和文本分析技术,分析中国人民银行货币政策执行报告的文本情绪、文本相似度和文本可读性等多维文本信息,刻画央行货币政策执行报告的文本特征,探究货币政策报告的文本信息与宏观经济和股票市场的关系。实证研究发现,货币政策报告的文本情绪的改善会引起显著为正的股票市场价格反应,报告文本相似度的增加会引起股票市场波动性的显著降低,报告可读性对公布后股票市场的波动性影响不显著。货币政策报告文本情绪还与诸多宏观经济指标显著相关。进一步研究发现,引起股票市场显著反应的是报告文本情绪中反映货币政策指引的部分,而反映宏观经济历史状态的部分对股票市场的影响不显著。本文从文本大数据分析角度证明了我国央行沟通的有效性,对国内央行沟通相关研究形成了有益补充。     

非常规货币政策退出：文献综述与研究展望

非常规货币政策是国际金融危机期间主要经济体中央银行缓解流动性压力、提振市场信心以及压低融资成本重振经济的重要举措。随着美联储开始逐步退出量化宽松政策。非常规货币政策退出成为各方关注的焦点。非常规货币政策退出会带来怎样的冲击？如何把握退出节奏？本文从非常规货币政策退出的内涵、原因、策略以及影响等角度对主要文献进行了总结．提出了进一步研究的几个方向。     

央行资本盒与货币政策的有效性

2007年次贷危机后,各国央行都承担起“最后贷款人”的职责,救助金融机构,央行自身资产负债表的质量不断恶化,引发对中央银行资本金的关注。央行在履行维持物价稳定和一些“准财政”职能时,资本金可能遭受损失,资本金的损失会影响到央行的公信力和独立性,以及货币政策的有效性。充足的央行资本金对于货币政策的有效执行来说是一种有力的保障。     

货币政策可信度的理论分析

货币政策可信度是指经济主体相信中央银行采取系统性的行动以最终达到所承诺的政策目标.如果公众相信中央银行将言行一致地进行货币政策操作,那么这样的货币政策就是可信的.市场经济中,货币政策的可信度在很大程度上影响到货币政策的效率.因此,明确货币政策可信度的涵义,分析货币政策可信度的影响因素,致力于提高货币政策可信度的制度建设,对提高货币政策的有效性具有现实意义.     

The role of financial journalists in the expectations channel of the monetary transmission mechanism

Monetary policy relies on managing the inflation expectations of the public in order to influence prices (inflation). Relying on the South African experience, we argue that most of the general public are exposed to the communication of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) only via the media. This state of affairs is fairly typical around the globe. We explored the role and biases of the journalists in transmitting the SARB’s communications to the rationally inattentive general public. Our aim was to obtain insights about the factors that influence media articles that deal with monetary policy issues. Using interviews and qualitative content analysis, we explored the extent of the journalists’ knowledge about inflation and monetary policy, their views concerning the credibility of the SARB, the sources of information they use, and the constraints and incentives they face in writing their articles.     

A Survival Plan for Global Capitalism

The intellectual impact of this economic crisis has already been colossal. The "Greenspanist" doctrine in monetary policy is in retreat. It no longer seems clear that it is easier for central banks to clean up after asset price bubbles     

Monetary policy transmission in vector autoregressions: A new approach using central bank communication

In this paper, we study the role played by central bank communication in monetary policy transmission. We employ the Swiss Economic Institute’s Monetary Policy Communicator to measure the future stance of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Our results indicate, first, that communication has an influence on inflation (expectations) similar to that of actual target rate changes. Communication also plays a noticeable role in the transmission of monetary policy to output. Consequently, future work on monetary policy transmission should incorporate both a short-term interest rate and a communication indicator. A second finding is that the monetary policy transmission mechanism changed during the financial crisis as the overall effect of monetary policy on (expected) inflation and output is weaker and of shorter duration during this period compared to the overall sample period.     

The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting

We measure the economic capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with asset pricing theory. Based on Barnett’s (Monetary policy on the 75th anniversary of the Federal Reserve System, pp. 232–244, Kluwer, Boston, 1991) definition of the economic stock of money, we estimate the expected discounted flow of expenditure on the services of monetary assets, where expenditure on monetary services is evaluated at the user costs of the monetary components. We use forecasts based on martingale expectations, asymmetric vector autoregressive expectations, and the Bayesian vector autoregressive expectations. We find the resulting capital-stock index to be surprisingly robust to the modeling of expectations.     

Monetary policy and stock prices – Cross-country evidence from cointegrated VAR models

This study applies the Cointegrated Vector-Autoregressive (CVAR) model to analyze the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between stock markets and monetary policy across five developed and three emerging economies. Our main aim is to check whether monetary policy plays an important role for stock market developments. As an innovation, monetary policy enters the analysis from three angles: in the form of a broad monetary aggregate, short-term interest rates and net capital flows. Based on this framework, we analyze whether central banks are able to influence stock market developments. Our findings suggest different patterns and causalities for emerging and industrial economies with the stock markets of the former economies more frequently related to monetary aggregates and capital flows. A direct long-run impact from short-term interest rates on stock prices is only observed for 3 out of 8 economies.     

货币政策和银行风险承担：一种非线性关系

宽松的货币政策会通过估值、收入和现金流机制,追逐收益机制以及中央银行沟通和反应机制等渠道增加银行风险承担,通过风险转移机制降低银行风险承担,从而导致货币政策与银行风险承担之间可能存在复杂的非线性关系。本文使用面板阈值模型,基于我国银行业数据研究了货币政策对银行风险承担的影响,发现我国货币政策对银行风险承担的影响存在门限效应,即货币政策对银行风险承担的影响取决于货币政策基准利率偏离泰勒规则利率的程度。当这种偏离小于门限值时,宽松货币政策会增加银行风险承担;当这种偏离大于门限值时,宽松货币政策会降低银行风险承担。本文研究对更好地理解我国货币政策对银行风险承担及金融稳定的影响有一定参考意义。     

Monetary policy for emerging market economies: beyond inflation targeting

Monetary policymakers normally seek to achieve multiple objectives: for prices as well as real economic activity, sometimes for the composition of real activity as well as the aggregate, and often for aspects of the economy's international balance. The fact that monetary policy has only one basic instrument to use therefore creates both complexity and tensions among these objectives. Although inflation targeting represents a way of imposing a logical consistency on monetary policy, in the presence of multiple policy objectives inflation targeting undermines policy transparency and therefore makes accountability more difficult too. Because of the limitation of monetary policy's having only one instrument, but multiple objectives, fiscal policy and prudential supervision and regulation of financial institutions are also important for enabling emerging market economies to achieve their macroeconomic aims.     

The information content of Eonia swap rates before and during the financial crisis

Before August 2007, implied forward rates in the overnight interest swap rates closely reflected market expectations about the future path of the Eonia, and therefore, about the future course of the ECB’s monetary policy stance. Nevertheless, this link was weakened considerably during the most acute episode of the financial crisis. Using the expectations hypothesis of the term structure as a benchmark model for the determination of the overnight interest swap rates, we find that after May 2010 the monetary transmission mechanism was partially restored when the ECB implemented various ‘unconventional measures’ in response to the financial crisis. On the contrary, liquidity and credit risks are still present in unsecured deposit markets, distorting the pricing and transmission of the ECB monetary policy stance along the Euribor rates. These results should be of interest for regulators, financial institutions, and researchers in European money markets.     

创新内含碳中和目标的结构性货币政策

2020年9月,我国提出努力争取2060年前实现碳中和,宣示了向低碳经济转型的战略。在实现碳中和目标过程中,货币政策起着极其重要的金融稳定、风险防控、融资引导作用,也将在其间经历相应调整。本文归纳总结了目前国内外对结构性货币政策的理论探讨和政策实践,分析了构建与碳中和一致的结构性货币政策的必要性,提出在碳中和目标下货币政策应采取更为积极的立场主动促进经济低碳转型,走向包含碳中和目标的结构性货币政策。本文同时讨论了构建与碳中和一致的结构性货币政策框架面临的理论和政策挑战,并提出了相关政策建议。     

储户预期与金融稳定

本文利用中国88家银行的面板数据及中国人民银行的储户问卷调查数据,研究储户对未来经济和收入感知的预期对金融稳定性的影响。研究发现,通过储户资产配置、货币政策预期与银行风险承担三个渠道储户预期水平上升有助于提高金融稳定性;机构储户对金融稳定性的边际影响高于居民储户;城市储户的预防动机需求会降低金融稳定性;从系统重要性银行角度看,储户预期对非系统重要性银行的影响更大,储户对房价信息与股市波动等信息的适应性学习会降低储户预期对金融稳定性的影响。     

Stock market synchronization and monetary integration

This paper focuses on the relationship between stock market comovements and monetary integration. A panel specification is used to explain bilateral stock market return correlations between fifteen developed economies over the period 1975-2006. Time fixed effects are included to capture global shocks and we also examine the role of bilateral trade linkages and international financial integration. Monetary integration leads to stronger stock market synchronization, both through the elimination of exchange rate volatility and through the common monetary policy and the convergence of inflation expectations. Trade and financial integration also contribute to higher stock market return comovements.     

中俄金融体制转轨模式的比较分析

中国和俄罗斯经过多年的金融改革,大大改变了金融制度环境,取得了较大的成效。通过对两国金融体制改革路径的评析和中央银行改革、政府职能定位和金融市场存在问题等方面的比较,本文得出结论认为,必须增强转轨国家中央银行的独立性,从而有效保障央行货币政策目标的实现;必须准确界定证券市场的功能,科学推进证券市场的发展;必须加强中小银行建设,满足转轨国家中小企业的融资需求;必须加强转轨国家在金融转型进程中政府职能的重新定位。