Foreign Exchange Accumulation and the Entrapment of Chinese Monetary Power: Towards a Balanced Growth Regime?

This article criticises the notion that China's foreign exchange reserves have strengthened its monetary power. While some scholars have argued that China's international monetary influence has been ‘entrapped’ by the domestic interests of its export sector, a one-sided focus on the export sector fails to identify the significant constraints on its macroeconomic autonomy. This article proposes an extension of the concept of entrapment that draws attention to the key role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and their domestic fixed-asset investment in its growth regime: China's external monetary dependency – which is understood as both export dependency and the need to maintain foreign exchange accumulation – has been caused by a disparity between fixed-asset investment and private consumption that reflects a redistribution of income from the household sector to the SOE sector. In particular, I expose the SOE sector's rising interests in foreign exchange accumulation by uncovering a mutually reinforcing dynamic between China's external monetary dependence and the financial repression of its banking system. By entrenching an investment-led growth regime that provides key benefits the SOE sector, this dynamic is found to have seriously constrained the macroeconomic policy autonomy of Chinese authorities to rebalance growth away from investments and exports towards private consumption.     

You are suffocating me: Firm-level analysis of state-owned enterprises and private investment

Literature on whether government spending crowds out or crowds in the private sector is large, but still without an unambiguous conclusion. Using firm-level data from Ukraine, this paper provides a granular empirical investigation to disentangle the impact of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on private firm investment in Ukraine—a large transition economy. Controlling for firm characteristics and systematic differences across sectors, the results indicate that the SOE concentration in a given sector has a statistically significant negative effect on private fixed capital formation, and that the impact of SOEs is stronger in those industries in which SOEs have a more dominant presence. These findings imply that private firms operating in sectors with a high level of SOE concentration invest systematically less than businesses that are not competing directly with SOEs.     

Flows of direct investment and their effects on investment in Canada

An accelerator-flow of funds model of investment is used to estimate the effects of direct investment abroad by Canadian firms and direct investment by foreign firms on domestic investment in Canada for the period 1957.I–1971.IV. The results show that direct investment abroad has a negative effect, whereas foreign direct investment has a positive effect on domestic investment. The latter results confirm earlier findings by Caves and Reuber (1971).     

How Successful Has Chinese Enterprise Reform Been? Pitfalls in Opposite Biases and Focus

We analyze two new data sets: one on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and another on town and village enterprises (IVEs). We find zero TFP growth in SOEs and positive TFP growth in COEs. The evidence suggests that the positive TFP growth in SOEs found by some recent studies might be due to underdeflation of gross output and overdeflation of intermediate inputs. The criterion for successful SOE reform should also include intertemporal efficiency and SOEs′ contribution so macroeconomic stability. Increases in technical efficiency do not necessarily improve SOEs′ financial performance. SOE personnel have received an increasing proportion of value added, hence creating a fiscal crisis for the state. J. Comp. Econom., June 1994, 18(3), pp. 410-437. University of California, Davis, California 95616; Fort Lewis College, Durango, Colorado 81301; University of California, Davis, California 95616; and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100836, People′s Republic of China.     

Business fixed investment of Chinese manufacturing firms in the post-financial crisis era

ABSTRACT

I document the investment decline of Chinese manufacturing firms after 2011, following the end of the 4 trillion fiscal stimulus program and expansionary monetary policies for combating the 2008–2009 financial crisis. I employ a difference-in-difference strategy to show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) acted as investment stabilizers. In the post-crisis era, SOEs’ investment rates fell less compared to their private counterparts. Moreover, they had a smaller chance of exiting the market than private firms. In the face of monetary tightening, SOEs enjoyed a much smaller increase in the interest rates of their long-term debts. Although these may fuel the growth of the SOE sector relative to the private sector, and thus raised concerns for capital misallocation, the adverse effect on reallocation was dampened by shadow banking.     

国有企业双重效率损失研究

本文基于企业效率最大化要求剩余索取权与剩余控制权相对应这一企业理论分析了国有企业的生产效率损失和创新效率损失问题。国有企业的公有产权属性决定了国有企业中存在着生产效率和创新效率的双重损失。国有企业改革通过监督和激励机制设计在一定程度上实现了生产中的剩余索取权与剩余控制权的匹配,从而提高了国有企业的生产效率。然而,由于创新具有不同于一般生产的特殊属性,已有国有企业改革措施并不能实现创新中的剩余索取权与剩余控制权的匹配,因而无法改善国有企业的创新效率。由此,本文提出了国有企业的创新效率损失大于生产效率损失的理论假说。基于中国省级国有企业和民营企业的工业行业数据,统计分析和计量模型估计结果都稳健地支持了该假说。     

重资产配置与国有企业效率——兼议混合所有制改革中的价值网优化

在全面深化经济体制改革的过程中，国有企业改革一直处于核心环节。此前的研究主要关注了国有资本的“进退”或“比例”对企业效率的影响，本文则从异质性资源的角度分析了国有企业的重资产配置带来的效率差异。本文基于动态博弈模型提出基本命题并进行实证检验，得出以下主要结论：第一，国有企业较之非国企业具有更高比例的重资产配置；第二，当重资产配置对非国有企业的效率产生负向拖累时，改由国有企业承担有助于减少其不利影响；第三，在混合所有制中，随着非国有资本介入程度的减弱，重资产配置效率得到加强。本文的研究启示在于，对于业已形成重资产配置特征的国有企业而言，轻资产转型并不是其改革的必然方向，应当从异质性资源角度审慎定夺，利用异质性资源循序渐进地提升效率。在混合所有制改革中，非国有资本和国有资本可在轻资产和重资产中实现优势互补，提升价值网络整体的绩效水平。同时，当国有企业的决策目标中社会福利的权重相对减少、企业利润的权重相对增加时，国有企业才可能降低重资产配置倾向，并提高轻资产配置效率。     

Rethinking the Role of State-owned Enterprises in China’s Rise

The massive overseas expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is a central aspect of China’s ‘rise’ to great-power status. There is significant disagreement, however, over how to interpret SOEs’ role. Are they instruments of Chinese statecraft, being directed purposefully from Beijing as part of a ‘grand strategy’? Or are they relatively autonomous, profit-maximising businesses, their free-wheeling behaviour often undermining Chinese foreign policy? Finding that there is evidence for both theses, we provide a framework to explain this. We propose theorising party-state/SOEs relations using the concepts of state transformation and regulatory statehood. We show that the Chinese state’s fragmentation, decentralisation and internationalisation since the late 1970s has substantially increased SOE autonomy and weakened but also transformed the executive’s control, reconfiguring it towards a regulatory mode of governance. Party-state/SOEs relations are thus characterised not by direct command and control but weak oversight and ongoing struggles within the party-state. We illustrate this using a case study of China Power Investment Corporation and its Myitsone hydropower dam project in Myanmar. Here, a central SOE clearly defied and subverted central regulations, profoundly damaging Sino-Myanmar state-to-state relations. Party-state authorities are now struggling to rein in this and other central SOEs.     

Durable goods produced by state owned enterprises

A two-period durable-goods monopoly model is analyzed where the durable good is provided by a state owned enterprise (SOE). First, we suppose that the SOE is under pressure to provide employment, and therefore has an employment goal, as well as the traditional profit and consumer surplus objectives. Assuming that the SOE has difficulty committing to current buyers with respect to its profit and employment motives, we find that as the employment burden increases, the SOE tends to move further away from the efficient durability and provides a lower durability level than a pure profit maximizer. Additionally, we show that a durable-goods SOE without commitment power, will wish to partially privatize to help mitigate its commitment problem with buyers and increase social welfare. Both of these findings provide economic rationale for the partial privatization of SOEs in transitioning economies that have not been identified in the literature prior to this.     

论国有经济比重的内生决定

本文讨论了生产成本函数形状、企业生产目标函数的变化对于国有经济或国有企业在产业乃至整个经济中的比重的影响。本文贡献了一个关于社会福利极大化目标在企业产量决策中的权数θ与产量水平q的两阶段古诺—纳什博弈的混合寡头模型 ,分析了在等边际成本与线性的市场需求反函数条件下 ,国有企业目标函数的变化与私有企业进入对于国有经济相对地位的效应 ,论证了在上述条件下国有经济在国民经济中的比重不会趋于零。     

Privatization's impact on private productivity: The case of Brazilian iron ore

A major motivation for the recent wave of privatizations of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) was a belief that privatization would increase SOE productivity. There are now many studies showing most privatizations achieved this goal. Our theme is that the productivity gains from privatization are much more general and widespread than has typically been recognized in this literature. In assessing the productivity gains from privatization, the literature has only examined the productivity gains accruing at the privatized SOEs. But privatization may have significant impact on the private producers that often exist side-by-side SOEs. In this paper we show that this was indeed the case when Brazil privatized its SOEs in the iron ore industry. That is, after their privatization, the iron ore SOEs dramatically increased their labor productivity, but so did the private iron ore companies in the industry.     

Do policy burdens induce excessive managerial perks? Evidence from China’s stated-owned enterprises

This paper explores the effect of policy burdens of China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on senior executives’ excessive perks. The empirical analysis demonstrates that SOE policy burdens are significantly and positively correlated with senior executives’ excessive perks, indicating that SOE policy burdens increase agency cost. The results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity. Moreover, we find the following evidences. Strategic policy burdens of SOEs have a significantly greater impact on their senior executives’ excessive perks, compared with social policy burdens. The positive impact of SOE policy burdens on excessive perks is significantly weaker in east China due to the higher degree of marketization. The central government’s stricter supervision can also alleviate the positive correlation between policy burdens of centrally administered SOEs and senior executives’ excessive perks.     

Chinese firm and industry reactions to antidumping initiations and measures

China has been the subject of large numbers of both antidumping initiations and measures. This article explores the reactions of Chinese firms and industries to these actions by using dynamic system GMM estimator and industrial panel data on all Chinese firms in the industry, foreign firms operating within China and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for aggregated firms group between 1997 and 2007. We find that antidumping actions by developed and developing countries negatively impact industrial profits and employee and firm numbers and also exports, but improve labour productivity. We also find that different kinds of firms show different responses. All firms together in an industry react to antidumping the most, and foreign and SOE firms show a much smaller response. Further, antidumping effects from different countries are different. Developed countries’ antidumping actions have more negative impact than developing countries’ actions; the effects of US actions are different from the European Union’s.     

The Canada U.S. free trade agreement: Competitive tradeoffs between foreign direct investment and trade

This paper assesses the impact of the Canada U.S. Free Trade Agreement on exports and foreign direct investment of processed foods. Results indicate that U.S. exports to Canada more than doubled, while Canadian exports to the U.S. nearly doubled after the implementation of the Canada U.S. Free Trade Agreement in 1989. Regression results of the covariance model on panel data show that U.S. and Canadian food processing firms appear to use both exports and foreign direct investments as complementary market access strategies. This research was supported by a grant from the Canadian Embassy. In addition, the authors thank Carolyn Dimitri of the University of Maryland for helpful comments.     

集团控制与国有企业治理

本文研究集团控制对国有企业可能产生的正面影响机制——减轻管理层代理问题和可能产生的负面影响机制——加重股东间代理问题,全面评估国有企业集团控制作为国企治理模式改革的有效性。以2004年至2008年中国国有上市公司为样本的统计结果显示:(1)集团控制会有效减轻国有企业的管理层代理问题;(2)当外部监管程度高时,集团控制不会加剧国有企业的股东间代理问题;而当外部监管程度低时,集团控制会加剧国有企业的股东间代理问题。因此,集团控制是一种有效改善国有企业管理层代理问题的治理模式,而由此加剧的股东间代理问题应通过强化外部监管加以解决。     

政策性负担、道德风险与预算软约束

本文在一个动态博弈的框架下 ,考察了政策性负担与转轨经济中企业的预算软约束问题。在信息不对称情况下 ,政策性负担将导致国有企业经理的道德风险 ,从而导致国有企业的低效率 ;当市场竞争达到一定程度时 ,政策性负担必然带来国有企业的预算软约束。而且 ,预算软约束同企业的公有制性质无关 ,在同样承担政策性负担的条件下 ,私有企业比国有企业更容易产生预算软约束 ,并且要求政府提供更多的补贴。当国有企业承担政策性负担时 ,政府剥夺企业的生产自主权往往是一种次优的制度安排     

The political economy of tariff protection in China: evidence from the WTO accession

We analyze China's tariff rates at WTO accession using a political economy approach. A model drawing on Branstetter and Feenstra ( 2002 ) is used to derive an optimal tariff rate for each industry. The model predicts that a government would set a high tariff rate if an industry is of large state‐owned enterprise (SOE) share, multinational share, or small foreign import share. From the model we reveal the Chinese government's preference towards different interest groups under the binding tariff constraint from the WTO commitments. The estimated structural parameters imply that the political weights on both the SOE profits and consumer income diminish with the economic opening. More important, the government still favours SOEs over consumer income. Our findings are consistent with the special features of China's economy.     

双轨制、价格市场化与总量投资分析

本文在新古典投资理论的框架下引入中国转轨时期的制度性因素,建立包括私有部门、国企部门以及政府部门的投资行为模型,论证了国有企业多重目标而导致其过度投资和资本积累,同时解释了在转轨过程中出现的诸如"国退民进"等演化现象,论证了政府倾向于干预经济,施行"逆风向行事"规则,然而因其对项目真实利润的不可准确估测性会导致投资的过度波动,从而表明政府投资可能是经济中投资波动的来源。     

Investment behavior and investment aggregates during China’s economic transition

In view of the peculiar patterns of investment ownership structure and special investment phenomena in China, the paper sets up formal dynamic investment behavioral models for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises (NSOEs) under the background of full-dimensional and gradual economic transition. The models are based on two key points: entrepreneurs of SOEs have dual and changing operational objectives as the result of property-rights reformation; and dual-track approach of price liberalization process and reformation of financing system alters the actual user costs of capital goods. Analytical solutions are provided and it is shown that there exists a normative and unified explanation of the peculiar phenomena such as “investment deficiency” of NSOEs, “investment thirst”, “investment inefficiency,” and dual shrinkage of SOEs in both investment and output. Our research also sheds lights on evaluation of preceding reforms, understanding of SOEs’ losses and bad bank loans. The paper partially justifies the property-rights-oriented reformation of SOEs. __________ Translated from the China Economic Quarterly (经恎学季刊),2005, (7) (in Chinese)     

中国国有企业改革：经验、困境与出路*

作为国有企业产权改革主要模式，“混合所有制”改革是否有助于确保国有资产保值增值，是否有助于推动中国经济可持续发展等问题仍存在探讨空间。本文基于对于改革开放以来中国国有企业改革的成就和教训的考察，指出“混合所有制”可以作为竞争性部门国有企业改革的一个过渡形式；对于垄断央企的改革应该充分借鉴国际上自然垄断行业的改革经验，打破行政垄断，推动竞争性框架建立，并切实实现从“管企业”逐步调整为“管资本”，通过改革实现国有资产的保值增值，并为经济创造新的增长点。