未来我国人口生育率面临下降压力

人口生育行为作为复杂的经济、社会现象,除受生育政策影响外,经济发展水平的提高、妇女受教育的改善以及婴幼儿死亡率下降和人口预期寿命提升等都会在不同程度上降低人们的生育意愿.未来,随着经济社会发展水平的提高,我国人口总和生育率仍面临较大的下降压力.为此,我国需进一步完善人口生育政策,降低育儿成本,以扭转生育率持续偏低的现状,确保人口与经济社会实现可持续发展.     

人口再生产宜均衡适度

2007年1月22日新华社受权播发了《中共中央、国务院关于全面加强人口和计划生育工作统筹解决人口问题的决定》，在此之前的1月11日，国家计生委公布了《国家人口发展战略研究报告》。在这两份文件和报告中，值得注意的一个提法，是认为中国总和生育率在未来30年应保持在1．8左右，过高或过低都不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展。     

低生育水平下我国生育政策的“逆向选择”及其政策思考

中国自1973年全面推行计划生育以来，在不到30年的时间内实现了人口再生产类型的历史性转变：人口再生产由“高出生、低死亡、高增长”转向“低出生、低死亡、低增长”。标志人口增长水平的妇女总和生育率从20世纪70年代初的54下降到2000年的1．8，并稳定至今，比其他发展中大国提前半个多世纪跨人低生育水平国家行列。     

“超低生育率”现象分析

目前,-种新的人口现象正在引起国际社会越来越深切的关注,这就是“超低生育率”(lowesl-low fer tility)现象。最近,联合国人口司在-份调查报告中预测,目前生育率处于中等水平的国家到2050年将出现人口下降。联合国人口司把妇女生育率分别列为高、中、低三种类别。高生育率主要出现在非洲许多国家以及亚洲的巴基斯坦和阿曼等国,这些国家的妇女平均生育5个以上的子女。中等生育率指的是妇女生育介于2.1到5个子女之间。据统计,目前全世界有74个国家处于这个行列,大约占全球国家总数的百分之四十。这些国家包括印度尼西亚、印度、埃及、巴西、孟加拉国、伊朗和菲律宾,它们占了世界人口的很大部分, 其生育率高低将直接影响到全球人口未来的走势。生育率较低国家的妇女平均生育不超过2.1个子女,具体分布范围包括欧洲、北美洲以及亚洲的日本、韩国和中国,估计有六十多个国家的生育率低于更替水平,人口再生产出现了内在的缩减趋势.     

如何看待人口数量多少的问题?

迄今为止,我国大规模人口控制和计划生育工作已接近40年,这期间,妇女总和生育率由期初的每个家庭平均生6个左右孩子下降到今天的1.7个(联合国数据),即使从1991年开始的低于更替水平的低生育率也已经持续了17年;这期间,我国经济社会发生了天翻地覆的变化,计划经济体制转变为社会主义市场经济体制,由单纯强调以经济建设为中心转向重视以人为本和高度关注民生.     

中国的可持续发展:人口、资源、环境现状与政策建议

一、我国人口、资源、环境的现状 (一)人口政策的实施取得显著成效,人口实现低增长。 自20世纪80年代计划生育政策实施以来,全国累计少出生3亿多人。“九五”期间,妇女总和生育率保持在2.1的更替水平以下,我国人口再生产实现了从高出生、低死亡、高增长到低出生、低     

从以人为本看我国人口问题与生育政策

我国人口低生育水平正在摆脱"人工控制"性质,越来越具有由经济社会发展驱动的自然性质。人口多少是个相对于经济社会发展的问题,只要经济社发展,人口多也不是大问题。在进入低生育率20年以后的今天,我国人口控制任务已接近基本完成,目前人口较多是历史遗留产物,继续保持超低生育率并不能解决人口多的问题,相反对未来人口、经济、社会平稳发展构成巨大威胁。我国人口多还会持续相当长时间,对此需坦然面对和积极应对。从以人为本科学发展观看,放宽现行生育政策势在必行,取消-孩政策迫在眉睫,这不仅是为了人口经济社会长期平稳发展,更是生育权利的合理回归和保障家庭发展与幸福。     

台湾地区未来50年人口变动趋势预测研究

根据1983-2001年台湾地区人口数量及结构的相关数据,以2001年台湾地区总人口数为基数,运用中国人口预测软件(CPPS),选取了总和生育率、平均预期寿命、出生性别比、生育模式四个预测参数,用高、中、低三套预测方案对台湾地区未来50年(2002-2051年)的人口变动趋势进行预测分析。台湾地区需要在适当控制人口规模的同时,将两性人口和老少人口比例各自保持在一个适度的区间内,使人口数量、人口结构处于最佳安好状况,从而对台湾地区社会、经济发展形成强有力的支持并有利于人、自然、社会的和谐发展。     

中国生育政策与生育率趋势研究

受生育政策影响,中国总和生育率已提前进入超少子化发展阶段。生育政策放宽影响具有一定的局限性,对生育率短期激励提升作用明显,其中对二孩及以上平均生育率、生育旺盛期的育龄妇女生育率和镇育龄妇女生育率的激励提升作用较为显著。但2020年后,总和生育率仍将持续下行。遏制生育率下滑趋势,需要制定以鼓励生育、促进人口长期均衡发展为导向的《人口法》,建立涵盖生育、托育、养育、教育的全周期鼓励生育政策体系。     

概率统计方法在我国人口统计研究中的应用初探

概率统计方法是研究随机现象的有力工具.在人口统计中,这种方法除了广泛应用于人口变动情况和儿童情况的抽样调查以及人口普查后的质量抽样调查外,也可用于人口统计分析研究.例如,利用时序回归法预测未来人口数;利用概率原理分析人口出生率的发展状况;利用假设检验及方差分析法检验各地区总和生育率有无显著差异;利用回归分析及相关分析法研究妇女总和生育率与各地区经济发展水平、文化程度及城镇化水平之间的相关关系等.下面通过实例来阐述概率统计方法在这些方面的应用.     

On the limits of rational expectations for policy analysis

In this lecture, I review work addressing three questions. First, are predictions about macro stabilization policies robust to reasonable departures from rational expectations? Second, do people's expectations converge to a particular set of rational expectations? Third, if they do converge, how quickly? I discuss examples from the literature where the answer to the first question is no. The answer to the second question is that learning equilibria converge to the “standard” rational equilibria analyzed in new Keynesian models. Finally, I discuss circumstances under which the answer to the third question is very slowly. In the examples, learning is slowest and policy analysis based on rational expectations is least robust in the face of shocks that render the stakes of getting policy “right” the highest.     

Are natural gas spot and futures prices predictable?

We answer two questions concerning natural gas spot and futures prices. The first is: Can natural gas futures prices predict natural gas spot prices? The second is: Are natural gas spot and futures prices weak form efficient or can they be predicted based on examination of historical data? To answer these questions, we use daily data for Henry Hub natural gas spot and futures prices. Our answer to the first question is that natural gas futures prices do not predict the magnitude of future natural gas spot prices any better than what would be predicted by a random walk model. This result has important implications for many financial analysts and policy institutions that have used commodity futures prices to predict movements in spot prices. The answer to the second question is that when we apply a unit root test that allows for heteroskedasticity and two structural breaks, natural gas spot and futures prices are predictable. We then simulate a contrarian trading strategy for spot and futures prices to show under what circumstances trading in spot and futures prices are also profitable. The results point to the need to accommodate heteroskedasticity when applying unit root tests to model energy spot and futures prices with high-frequency data, such as daily data.     

中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟。在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异。完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高。同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉。     

生育政策调整、退休年龄延迟与城镇职工基本养老保险最优缴费率

文章基于“十三五”规划建议提出适当降低社会保险费率的现实背景,从社会福利最大化视角,运用一般均衡模型对五种生育情景下不同退休年龄的城镇职工基本养老保险最优社会统筹缴费率进行测算,并分析降低社会统筹缴费率的经济效应。研究表明：（1）最优社会统筹缴费率随退休年龄的延长而下降,随人口增长率的上升而提高。0％－100％符合全面二孩政策规定的妇女生育二孩,使退休年龄为60岁时的最优社会统筹缴费率降到191．8％－196．3％,使退休年龄为65岁时的最优缴费率降到107．7％－116．4％。（2）除了受生育政策和退休年龄影响外,最优社会统筹缴费率对物质资本产出弹性、个人主观效用贴现因子和社会贴现因子的敏感性也较强。（3）降低社会统筹缴费率具有积极的经济效应,不仅能促进经济增长和增进社会福利,而且有助于完善我国多层次养老保险体系。因此,文章为降低城镇职工基本养老保险社会统筹缴费率的改革提供了依据。     

Information sharing about a demand shock

This paper examines two questions in asymmetric Cournot and Bertrand oligopoly with a demand shock. Under which conditions is information sharing a subgame-perfect equilibrium? What is the welfare effect when firms are better off? Given these questions, the normal assumptions in the earlier literature can be relaxed in three ways: demand functions can be asymmetric; a demand shock can affect firms differently; distributions of the demand shock and information signals can be arbitrary. Under these general assumptions, the answer to the first question is: every firm's response to the demand shock is stronger when all firms have perfect information than when one firm does so alone; the answer to the second question is: social welfare increases in Cournot competition, and consumer surplus decreases in Bertrand competition.     

Revisiting growth empirics based on IV panel quantile regression

We analyse the well-known issue of economic growth convergence using quantile regression. Most previous studies have used a least squares (LS) method or variation, which focuses on the issue only at the mean of the growth rate. Therefore, such results cannot provide a satisfactory answer to what can happen if the growth rate is far from the conditional mean level. For example, we consider the following question: do we still have economic growth convergence or is the convergence speed changed in a low growth period such as the ‘Great Recession,’ that started in 2008? We propose using instrumental variable panel quantile regression to answer this question. Our empirical findings demonstrate that economic growth convergence occurs at all quantiles over the entire conditional distribution, but that the convergence speed does depend on quantiles; the convergence speed is much higher when the GDP growth rate is at either high or low quantiles.     

Housing demand in Russia: Rationing and reform1

In a number of articles Alexeev (1988a) and (1988b) shows that in the former Soviet Union the administrative rationing of housing was partially replaced by market forces acting through the second economy. This paper uses a much richer dataset to update his analysis for Russia to consider housing demand in 1992, the last year of the administrative allocation system. Almost immediately after the survey used for this analysis Russia began to privatize the housing stock as part of its movement towards a market economy. The questions we ask are: Were households really able to beat the system, as argued by Alexeev and, if so, were they still able to do so in 1992? Our answer to the second question is that in 1992 households were not able to beat the system. Income had no observable effect on housing demand. Furthermore, we do not think that the difference in our empirical results and Alexeev's is due only to the broader economic changes that occurred since his estimation or the richer dataset available to us. Indeed, our answer to the first question is that there are good reasons for arguing that Alexeev's estimates of the income elasticity of housing demand are biased upwards.     

Future generations and economic activities: The case of the social discount rate

The objective of this article is to show the difficulties economists have when they try to answer the following question: What can economists do to promote a fair and “safe” economic development? Or otherwise said: what should we do to promote more equity between generations in an environmental perspective? The purpose of this article is not to develop new tools or policies but to give an overview of some theoretical and practical problems linked to the connection between environment, intergenerational justice and economic activities. The first section focuses on the reasons for the need to develop a reflection about intergenerational equity in the economics of the environment. The second section investigates some related theoretical problems, and the third section shows the practical difficulties economists have when dealing with intertemporal economic decisions; that is, trying to take intergenerational equity into account—in particular the choice of a discount rate for public investments.     

代际流动约束下生育率与收入不平等关系的国际检验

收入不平等问题和人口生育率过低问题是当下中国面临的两大难题,但目前理论界关于人口因素与收入不平等关系的研究,很少从生育率视角来考察以及考虑代际收入流动在其中的作用.文章从理论与经验两个方面来考察生育率对收入不平等的影响,理论模型表明:在关于代际收入流动的假设下,一个经济体中生育率的提高会使穷人比重提高,进而拉大收入不平等.进一步地,文章利用1970-2011年76个国家(地区)面板数据的经验研究发现:(1)总和生育率的提高会拉大收入不平等,如果每个妇女平均多生育一个孩子,将会使基尼系数增加0.025;(2)以出生率作为总和生育率替代指标的实证结果与基准结果基本一致,这说明不同生育率测算指标高度相关且可相互替代;(3)对于代际收入流动弹性越高、收入水平越低或生育率越高的国家(地区),其生育率提高对收入不平等的拉大作用越大.文章关于生育率对收入不平等影响的作用机制和异质性特征的考察,对于我国如何在实施"全面二孩"政策下寻求应对严峻的收入分配问题之策提供了国际经验和启示.     

生育政策调整是否会影响我国“碳达峰”目标的实现?——基于STIRPAT和Leslie模型的实证研究

以中国人口生育政策调整为研究背景,基于STIRPAT模型和Leslie模型综合考察中国人口生育政策调整可能对实现“我国二氧化碳排放力争2030年前达到峰值”目标所带来的影响。结果表明,除了经济发展水平、能源技术水平、能源消费结构等因素外,人口年龄结构对人均碳排放也具有显著影响。在论文设置的四种生育率情景下,人口总量峰值分别出现在2025年、2027年、2031年和2027年。若生育政策调整能够有效提高社会总和生育率,人口规模和人口年龄结构的变化会使碳排放总量峰值推后出现。因此,中国逐步放宽的人口生育政策可能会给实现碳达峰目标带来一定压力。