区域金融风险预警系统研究——基于Z市的实证分析

本文通过建立区域风险预警指标体系及风险预警评价模型,构建了"三级预警"模式的区域金融风险预警监测系统,较好地实现了风险的梯次预警管理。该系统将大量区域宏观经济运行指标和银行业微观指标纳入其中,并综合运用层次分析法(AHP)与熵值法优化设定预警指标的组合权重,以期达到宏、微观预警指标兼顾,主、客观赋权统一的目的。运用该系统,文中对S省Z市A、B两区县近四年的区域金融风险状况进行了实证比较分析,剖析了该市当前金融风险的主要表现形式,并从区域风险类型和风险等级两个维度,提出风险化解路径和有针对性的风险防范建议,为z市区域金融风险防范和化解工作提供了较为科学的解决方案。     

保险业综合经营新趋势下风险预警与控制机制研究文献综述

保险业同其他金融行业的日益融合已成为国际上的主流趋势。本文主要从保险业发展综合经营的现状和最新趋势入手,阐述建立风险预警与控制机制的必要性和现实意义,通过整理现有对保险综合经营模式的选择、建立保险控股公司面临的风险及如何通过内控机制和外部监管对风险防范和化解等方面的文献,我们发现,目前对如何建立健全中国保险业综合经营新环境下的风险识别、计量、监测(包括预警)、控制、监管及化解机制的论著较少,存在较大的研究空间。     

对商业银行实施风险预警监管效果好

为加强对商业银行风险状况的早期预警和动态监测，督促商业银行增强金融风险的自我防范、自我控制和自我化解能力，平凉银监分局在综合运用非现场监管和现场检查等信息的基础上，建立了《平凉市辖内商业银行风险预警体系》，对辖内商业银行实施风险预警监管，收效良好。     

国家审计功能的拓展:从监督处罚到风险防范——以政府债务常态化审计为视角的分析

随着新冠疫情爆发和世界经济周期见顶回落,我国经济社会面临的重大风险迅速累积.监督处罚功能无法涵盖审计风险化解和风险预警的全部实践,国家审计功能拓展为风险防范,成为历史的必然.本文以政府债务常态化审计为例,阐释国家审计风险防范的功能属性和实现机理,并用实证数据加以佐证.研究发现,国家审计对风险的防范,体现在风险预警、增量风险控制和存量风险化解等层面;由于不同地区经济发展和审计资源配置不均衡,审计风险防范功能的实现存在显著的区域性差异.基于此,提出推进审计委员会的统筹协调作用、完善风险常态化审计机制、挖掘科学的风险预警指标和加强审计职业化建设等.     

金融审计标准国际化对防范化解重大风险攻坚战的促进作用

本文分析了防范化解重大风险攻坚战的现状及面临的问题,从三个方面提出金融审计标准国际化对我国打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战的促进作用。     

论农业政策性银行信贷风险管理

信贷风险管理一直是金融业努力探索的问题.对我国农业政策性银行而言,面临着政策性与市场性双重风险,防范和化解政策性信贷风险意义特别重大.本文借鉴发达国家成功的经验,提出防范和化解农业政策性信贷风险的基本思路建立贷款风险预警防范系统;建立农业政策性信贷安全区;运用现代网络信息技术,加快超库存量粮食顺价销售;争取国家政策,加快消化政策原因形成的财务挂账;建立贷款风险补偿机制;建立内控机制,实行责任追究;加强法制建设.     

支付系统运行风险预警研究

为加强对支付系统运行风险的防范,本文在确定支付系统运行风险主要指标及指标权重的基础上,通过基准指标选取、同步指标选取、危机指数合成、先行指标选取、预警指数合成等步骤得到预警指数和危机指数的分布,实现对运行风险的预警;并选取2013年1月到2015年8月作为对运行风险月度数据进行测算的研究区间对该预警方法进行实证分析,取得良好效果。     

标本兼治强监管除隐患

＂颜值高、气质佳＂这是人们对近期中国经济的评价。而要把这样的好形象、好趋势保持下去,就需要对各类风险进行严防死守,金融风险的防控则是重中之重。在决胜全面建成小康社会必须打赢的三大攻坚战中,防范化解重大风险是首要任务。＂推动重大风险防范化解取得明显进展。当前我国经济金融风险总体可控,要标本兼治,有效消除风险隐患。＂3月5日,国务院总理李克强在对2018年政府工作报告中再次这样强调。     

基于资金流量表的我国系统性金融风险指数测度研究

本文基于我国2001—2020年资金流量表数据，使用风险传染网络模型方法，对我国部门间金融风险传染效应进行分析，并测度了我国系统性金融风险指数。研究发现，金融部门是我国部门间金融风险传染的主要承担者；我国宏观金融网络的稳健性在党的十九大后明显增强，各部门引发的风险传染总损失效应整体呈震荡波动态势，但2018年以来总损失效应明显低于之前的平均水平；本文测算出的系统性金融风险指数与M2/GDP的走势在多个时间点较为吻合，其对于防范化解系统性金融风险具有前瞻性预警作用。基于此，本文从加强对金融部门的风险监测与管理，加强对政府部门和国外部门的风险监测，进一步完善宏观审慎政策框架等方面提出政策建议。     

地方金融组织风险预警机制和突发事件应急处置预案探讨

<正>加强监测预警是做好防范和化解地方金融组织风险的重要基础,要建立健全风险预警机制,研判、预警本行政区域内地方金融组织的苗头性风险,对存在的安全隐患、违法违规经营活动和涉嫌非法集资、黑恶势力线索等依法处置。制订地方金融组织突发事件应急处置预案,包括突发事件类别、监测和预警响应、处置措施。     

综合风险管理：“十二五”的新命题

当前中国已经进入“双转”的第三阶段,即经济社会双重转型的全面深化阶段。在这一阶段,“双转”期间的利益摩擦和冲突迅速凸显。“十二五”期间,我国宏观社会经济面临金融风险、三农风险、生态风险、公共风险等“四大风险”,其背后的风险因素包括强国与富民、先富与后富、虚拟经济与实体经济、经济发展与生态保护、经济建设与社会建设、市场失...     

基于Logistic回归法的商业银行财务风险预警模型研究

商业银行的稳定健康直接关系到金融体系的稳定和国家经济的发展乃至国家安全。本文在对商业银行财务风险进行深入分析的基础上,通过比较＂经营稳健的商业银行＂和＂经营出现财务风险的商业银行＂在资本充足性、信用、盈利能力、流动性和发展能力五个方面存在显著性差异的指标,采用Logistic回归法构建了一个多指标综合监控的银行财务风险测度模型,以期能够有效地识别风险,通过事前控制确保商业银行的健康稳定发展,平抑经济波动,为实现国民经济的良性循环奠定基础,最终促进我国国民经济沿着良好的态势发展。     

银行监管和股东属性对银行风险的影响——基于新兴经济体的监管数据分析

银行监管按世界银行的标准划分为总体监管和12类分项监管;银行大股东属性包括政府类、金融企业类、外资类等.总体监管可以有效地降低银行风险;大股东为工业类、金融类企业的银行能够更好地控制风险,而家族类银行的风险程度较高;通过对分项监管进行研究可以发现,加强对所有权、资本要求、经营活动限制、外部审计要求、流动性、存款保险制度、退出及监管效率八个方面的监管可降低银行总体风险,而加强准入、内部管理、资产分类配置、信息披露这四类监管反而会增加银行总体风险.     

风险:我国社会保障面临的挑战

我国现行的社会保障潜伏着多重风险,既有社会保障基金收支风险,也有社会保障制度风险,更有社会保障社会风险。建立社会保障预警系统,才能进一步明晰中央政府与地方政府社会保障职责,加大财政对社会保障支付力度,解决养老保险转制成本,加快社会保障立法,化解社会保障风险。     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

The business case for regulation of corporate social responsibility and accountability

This paper develops an alternative (or supplementary) theoretical justification for the regulation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and social and environmental accounting and reporting (SEAR) to the justification contained in the extant academic literature. It does this by demonstrating how, contrary to the dominant business discourse, increased regulation designed to protect the social and environmental interests of a range of stakeholders can also serve to enhance corporate economic performance and shareholder value.

The theoretical perspectives developed in this paper are drawn from Beck's and Giddens’ theories on reflexive modernity, and indicate that reflexively appropriated knowledge can be a key factor in developing socially constructed understandings of the social and environmental risks to a range of stakeholders inherent in business operations.

In situations where voluntary self-regulation of CSR and SEAR has been ineffective in preventing corporate actions and decisions that have resulted in damaging social and environmental consequences, processes of reflexivity can substantially increase public awareness of the level of risk they face from corporate operations. Such increased perceptions of risk can lead to a loss of trust in an individual corporation or a whole industrial sector, and this can be exacerbated where stakeholders begin to actively seek out alternative risk discourses to inform themselves about possible risks of which they were previously unaware. We argue that effective statutory regulation could avoid these outcomes, and the loss of shareholder economic value that can flow from these outcomes.     

养老保险中的政府责任——基于风险管理的视角

从社会保障帮助人们处理生活风险的核心职能出发,审视政府在养老保险中的责任,政府应协调和利用各种力量实现养老保障目标,控制个人、企业等主体在养老决策中的风险因素。在多支柱养老保险体系中,政府的责任在于统筹利用不同的养老金类别在收入再分配、风险分担和处理、资本积累和金融深化等方面各自的优势。为实现养老保障目标,政府还应承担财政兜底责任,履行财政兜底责任,必须控制财政风险。     

The valuation of risk transfer in UK school public private partnership contracts

A number of studies have examined the public private partnership (PPP) policy and have questioned the risk transfer argument used by the UK government to legitimise its adoption. This paper contributes to the literature by illustrating how accounting numbers have been used to value risks and justify the PPP decision. Data from the full business cases of two UK PPP schools and semi-structured interviews are used to illustrate the complexities and subjective judgements involved in valuing risks and achieving optimal risk transfer. The analysis suggests that the accounting numbers used to value risks are not neutral or objective but are socially constructed and may be manipulated to justify the PPP decision.     

Sociology,risk and the environment: a material-semiotic approach

Abstract

Sociology has made significant contributions to the conceptualisation of risk and critique of technical risk analysis. It has, however, unintentionally reinforced the division of labour between the natural/technical and social sciences in risk analysis. This paper argues that the problem with conceptualisations of risk is not a misplaced emphasis on calculation. Rather, it is that we have not adequately dealt with ontological distinctions implicit in both sociological and technical work on risk between material or objective risks and our socially mediated understandings and interpretations of those risks. While acknowledging that risks are simultaneously social and technical, sociologists have not, in practice, provided the conceptual and methodological tools to apprehend risk in a less dualistic manner. This limits our ability both to analyse actors and processes outside the social domain and to explore the recursive relationships between risk calculus, social action and the material outcomes of risk. In response, this paper develops a material-semiotic conceptualisation of risk and provides an assessment of its relevance to more sociologically informed risk governance. It introduces the ideas of co-constitution, emergent entities and enactment as instruments for reconciling the material and social worlds in a sociological study of risk. It further illustrates the application of a material-semiotic approach using these concepts in the nuclear industry. In deconstructing social–material dualisms in the sociology of risk, this paper argues that a material-semiotic conceptualisation of risk enables both technical and social perspectives on risk not only to coexist but to collaborate, widening the scope for interdisciplinary research.     

存款保险、市场竞争与银行经营稳健性

本文基于银行存款市场空间竞争模型,探讨存款保险制度的实施效果和福利效应,及其与市场竞争政策的交互作用。研究表明,政府隐性担保尽管能够保障存款人利益,但会降低存款人对银行经营稳健性的要求,使得银行追求高风险高收益资产从而降低经营稳健性;而市场化的存款保险制度通过费率与风险挂钩的激励机制,能够有效提升银行经营稳健性,同时避免过高政策成本负担,实现较高的社会福利水平。随着市场竞争强化,引入风险差别费率保险制度,在提升银行经营稳健性和增进社会福利方面的效果逐渐增强。模型分析表明,当长期允许机构自由进出市场时,政府强化竞争政策短期可能降低银行的经营稳健性,但长期内高风险银行逐渐退出市场而更有效率的低风险银行进入市场,这种柔性市场退出机制使得银行业整体经营稳健性增强。因此,在金融市场中强化竞争政策,推行并完善当前市场化的风险差别费率存款保险制度,长期内有助于在保护存款人利益的同时,提升银行稳健性和社会福利。