风险态度影响信任行为的情景依赖性--实验经济学的检验

信任是一种冒险行为,但这种冒险突出地表现为情景依赖性。本文采用实验经济学的研究范式,刻画了是否信任和信任程度的二元选择集和多元选择集的信任决策情景,同时利用获得和损失情景考察人们的风险态度。实验结果发现人们信任行为的动机是利他偏好、心理状态和计算理性,但只有在二元选择信任决策情景和获得风险决策情景中,信任行为与风险态度才显著相关,这也进一步表明信任行为的动机是多样的,这些动机在不同情景下有不同的自我表达,从而导致信任行为在不同决策情景下的差异。此外,实验结果也证实了性别对于信任行为的影响仅限于信任程度,对信任与否的决策没有显著影响。     

网络团购中感知风险对信任及购买意愿的影响

网络团购是近年来发展较快的一种商业模式,吸引着越来越多的消费者。本文探讨网络团购中的感知风险对信任以及购买意愿的影响,利用SPSS17.0和AMOS17.0统计软件分析数据,得出结论:感知过程风险对信任有负向影响作用;感知产品风险只对情感信任有负向影响;认知信任对购买意愿有正向影响而情感信任则影响不显著;感知过程风险通过认知信任中介变量间接影响消费者购买意愿。     

电子商务信任与风险的文献综述与评析

通过对电子商务信任与风险有关文献的综述和评析，初步澄清有关信任和风险的概念以及信任、风险与行为之间关系的某些模糊认识，致力于克服目前国内外电子商务信任研究的混乱状况，以便为建立一个科学、严谨、结构合理的电子商务信任的理论框架打好基础。     

技术创新的风险决策

分析了技术创新风险决策的特点、技术创新风险决策的矛盾及其权衡,对技术创新决策者的风险态度进行了探讨,提出了技术创新风险决策的3H7S范式。     

信任、感知风险与网络购物意愿的关系研究

在文献研究的基础上,编制了网络购物意愿调查问卷,对部分市民和学生进行了实证调查,回收了149份有效问卷。采用结构方程模型对信任、感知风险、网络购物意愿的关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,感知有用性、信任对网络购物意愿产生显著的正向影响;感知风险对网络购物意愿产生显著的负向影响;感知易用性和信任对感知有用性产生显著的正向影响;信任对感知风险产生显著的负向影响。     

组织信任及决策承诺与决策质量之关系探讨

通过关注组织信任在战略决策过程中的作用机制，研究组织成员间的信任与战略决策质量的关系，尤其是受信任影响较大的决策承诺在其中的中介作用。对组织信任、决策承诺和决策质量概念进行了系统的探索性分析和验证性分析，证实了组织信任对战略决策质量有显著的正相关关系，研究结论是组织信任对决策质量的影响主要是通过决策者的决策承诺来传递的。     

算法决策:人工智能驱动的公共决策及其风险

作为一种自主算法决策,人工智能技术已经渗透到公共决策过程的各个环节,使公共决策模式产生重大变革.本文基于公共政策循环理论的视角,提出了一个人工智能算法对公共政策的问题界定与议程设置、政策制定、政策执行和政策评估四个阶段的影响与应用的分析框架,指出人工智能算法通过其大数据处理能力和预测分析能力,对提高公共决策的科学性、精准性和有效性发挥了巨大的作用.与此同时,人工智能算法存在的算法偏见、预测偏差和算法"黑箱"等问题可能引发公共决策失灵和合法性危机.最后,本文还提出,为了合理利用人工智能技术提高公共决策的有效性,规避算法决策的风险,决策者应关注人工智能算法决策与人类常规性决策的应用范围、适用性以及两者之间的互补协调关系,同时在算法驱动的公共决策各个环节中加强公共参与,建立参与式算法决策框架.     

创业决策机理研究：影响因素与作用方式*

本文以情境检测的方式探讨创业决策的影响因素与作用机理,通过对364份样本的分析,发现已有研究所关注的风险感知、风险倾向、手段导向逻辑、经验认知等因素,都对创业决策具有重要影响。与已有研究结论不同的是,本文发现风险感知不是风险倾向影响创业决策的中介变量,而是与风险倾向并列影响创业决策;与二者并列的另一个重要因素,是近年来创业研究所关注的手段导向逻辑。研究结果发现,经验认知作为自变量,通过风险感知、风险倾向、手段导向逻辑对创业决策发挥影响。     

基于均值-风险模型的弹性供应网络集成优化

考虑决策者的风险态度,研究了需求不确定和失效风险并存情况下多周期弹性供应网络的集成优化问题。其中,通过生成随机情境模拟失效风险和需求不确定性,利用均值-风险模型度量决策者的风险态度。建立了一个综合考虑多源供应、期权契约和战略应急库存3种弹性策略的混合整数随机规划模型,针对该模型的特点设计了抽样平均近似求解算法进行模型求解。最后,通过数值算例验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。     

创业团队风险感知与创业决策关系研究——基于团队沟通的中介作用分析

文章探讨了创业团队的风险感知、团队沟通与创业决策之间的关系,构建了相应的研究模型,采用实证研究方法,以湖北、江苏两省的创业团队为主要研究对象,通过采用多元线性回归方法对269名创业团队成员的调研数据进行分析,结果表明风险感知与团队沟通对创业决策制定的高效性与认同度等均具有显著的正向影响作用,风险感知对团队沟通也具有显著的正向影响作用,团队沟通在风险感知与创业决策之间具有中介作用。     

Can Risk‐Averse Households Make Risky Investments? The Role of Trust in Others

In this paper, using data from the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2006 and 2013 waves), we illustrate the link between individuals’ attitudes to financial risk combined with their willingness to trust others, and their investments in risky assets. Individuals who display either risk tolerance alone or – to a lesser extent – risk aversion and trust more frequently decide to buy risky assets. The comparison between Scandinavian and Mediterranean countries indicates that trust plays qualitatively different roles depending on the prevailing combination of risk attitude and trust in the area being studied.     

信任与控制对项目绩效改善作用的研究

信任与控制是项目治理中的两项重要治理手段,二者皆对项目绩效水平产生影响。本文旨在分析项目治理框架下信任与控制的联接关系及其对项目绩效改善的作用机理。通过分析项目组织中信任与控制研究的基础理论与实证分析成果,进一步深入对项目组织中信任与控制对项目绩效作用的认识。鉴于此,本文从信任与控制的概念,信任与控制之间的相互关系以及信任与控制对项目绩效的影响三个方面对信任与控制改善项目绩效进行了文献综述,梳理了上述内容的研究脉络,分析了现有研究的成果、特色与存在的问题,并在此基础上指出了未来研究方向。     

基于云模型的需求端粮食供应链信任研究

信任有助于企业间的合作,不同信任类型的选择会产生不同的合作效率。运用云模型对需求端粮食供应链企业间的信任度进行评价,帮助选择合适的信任类型。利用信任决策逻辑证明信任类型选择的正确性。研究结果表明:粮食加工方和粮食生产者的关系型信任处于较高信任等级,计算型信任处于较低信任等级,应选择关系型信任;粮食加工方和粮食经销方的关系型信任处于较低信任等级,计算型信任处于较高信任等级,应选择计算型信任。信任决策逻辑的分析验证了研究结果的正确性。     

网络环境下消费者信任影响因素研究———以产品类型为调节变量

信任已成为电子商务研究领域的重要议题。本研究通过对文献的梳理发现,已有研究主要源自社会交换理论、期望－确认理论、合理行动理论、计划行为理论与科技接受模式5种理论基础,理论基础的差异致使在消费者信任影响因素的研究成果中存在重复与分歧。本文以一个新的视角对已有研究成果进行整合,构建出一个理论模型,并获得实证支持。其中,信任的影响因素被划分为感知网站投入、声誉及信任倾向,信任本身被划分为信任信念与信任意图。该模型被证明是一个有完全中介效应的调节变量,即感知网站投入、声誉及信任倾向都完全通过信任信念的中介作用对信任意图产生显著的正向影响,而这一影响过程会受到产品类型的调节：在购买高涉入－理性类产品时,感知网站投入与声誉都对消费者的信任意图发挥着重要的影响,在购买低涉入－理性类产品时,消费者更愿意依照自己的信任倾向做出决策。     

Trust and reciprocity: misunderstandings

We contest a reductive view of trust, quite diffused in economics, and in studies influenced by the Game-Theory framework: the idea that trust has necessarily to do with contexts requiring “reciprocation”; or that trust is trust in the other’s reciprocation. A multi-layer cognitive model of trust will be proposed. Trust is not conceived only as an attitude towards the other, implying different kinds of beliefs (evaluations, expectations, beliefs on the other”s motives, etc.), but also as a willingness to rely on others that makes us dependent and vulnerable to them, as well as a concrete act of reliance based on this. Not necessarily we trust people because they will be willing to reciprocate; and we do not necessarily reciprocate for reciprocating. Trust (even “genuine” trust) is based on a variety of motivations ascribed to others and makes prevail the adoption of our needs and goals: from “altruism” to “self-interest”, from reciprocation to norms or to affective reasons.     

员工的信任结构与知识共享

信任是员工在组织内实现知识共享的重要心理机制。本文通过对208个样本的基于认知的普遍信任和基于组织成员身份的组织信任的测量,证明了普遍信任与组织信任相互独立并存在一定程度的相关。通过回归分析,普遍信任中性善认知因素、组织信任中组织行为信任因素对于员工知识共享的意愿与行为有着更高程度的影响。从一个角度说明中国人不仅不缺乏普遍信任,而且与他人共享知识的行为也不完全以“情感关系”为特征。     

家族企业多维度信任与工作绩效

信任对家族企业的工作绩效有非常重要的意义。文章从信任的多维度出发,研究了家族企业信任对工作绩效的影响。在文献研究的基础上,作者以家族企业的高管人员和企业主为调查研究对象,进行了实证分析。研究结论表明,家族企业信任对工作绩效具有一定的影响,其中：一、家族企业情感性信任对工作绩效有显著的正向影响;二、家族企业认知性信任对工作绩效有显著的正向影响;三、在家族企业中,情感性信任对工作绩效的正向影响比认知性信任对工作绩效的正向影响更大;四、在家族企业中,对于工作绩效的影响,情感性信任和认知性信任是相互替代的关系。研究结论将为我国家族企业的可持续发展提供参考决策。     

Does trust extend beyond the village? Experimental trust and social distance in Cameroon

In this paper we use experimental data from rural Cameroon to quantify the effect of social distance on trust and altruism. Our measure of social distance is relevant to everyday economic interactions: subjects in a Trust Game play with fellow villagers or with someone from a different village. We find that significantly more money is sent when the players are from the same village. Other factors that influence transfers at least as much as the same-village effect are gender, education and membership of rotating credit groups. To test whether Senders are motivated by altruism, they also play a Triple Dictator Game. Senders transfer significantly more money on average in the Trust Game than in the Triple Dictator Game. However, there is also a social distance effect in the Triple Dictator Game. Results from a Risk Game suggest that Trust Game transfers are uncorrelated with attitudes to risk.     

Financial risk attitudes and aging in Australia

A number of empirical studies document that people tend to become more risk averse as they get older. But other studies find only little evidence that age matters for financial risk attitudes. This prompts a call for revisiting the relationship between age and risk attitude to better support policy recommendations. The current paper contributes to this effort by utilising large-scale population data to conduct a dynamic panel analysis. Care is taken to avoid the problem of endogeneity of lagged risk attitude in modelling its effects. Analysis reveals that individuals' past risk attitude has a positive effect on their current risk attitude. However, there is only little evidence that risk attitude and age are systematically related. Our results shed some light on the previous contradictory empirical findings in the literature and suggest that past risk attitude is potentially of greater relevance than chronological age in determining current risk attitude.     

The Relationship between Behavioral and Attitudinal Trust: A Cross-cultural Study

We study the relationship between trust in an experiment and trust measured by means of popular survey items in different countries. Students from Chile, Colombia, India, Mexico and Sweden participate in a public goods game experiment and answer a set of standard attitudinal survey questions about trust. We find that behavioral trust and attitudinal trust significantly differ among countries. Behavioral trust is highest in Sweden, followed by Latin America, and lowest in India. Attitudinal trust is highest in Chile and Sweden, followed by India and Mexico, and lowest in Colombia. Further, the predictive power of survey items also differs among countries. Trust measured by survey items is significantly related to behavioral trust in some but not in all societies. No single survey item predicts actual trust across all countries. Plausible explanations of the inconsistent relationship between behavioral and attitudinal trust across countries are discussed.