House prices and consumer welfare

We develop a new approach to measuring changes in consumer welfare due to changes in the price of owner-occupied housing. In our approach, an agent's welfare adjustment is defined as the transfer required to keep expected discounted utility constant given a change in current house prices. We demonstrate that, up to a first-order approximation, there is no aggregate change in welfare due to price increases in the existing housing stock. This follows from a simple market clearing condition where capital gains experienced by sellers are exactly offset by welfare losses to buyers. We show that this result holds (approximately) even in a model that accounts for changes in consumption and investment plans prompted by current house price changes. There can, however, be changes in welfare due to additions to the stock of housing, or to changes in the price of renovating and upgrading the existing stock of housing. For the United States, we estimate the welfare cost of house price appreciation to be an average of $127 per household per year over the 1984–1998 period.     

房价形成机制与定量分析初探

本文探讨了房价形成机制,认为供求关系决定房价,基本面、资金面、政策面等各种影响因子通过影响有效需求和有效供给最终实现对房价趋势的作用,形成房价波动和周期规律。在此理论基础上,利用实证数据对房价定量分析模型进行研究,论述了"房价是供求比的函数"的推导过程和逻辑关系,为今后房价分析模型的研究抛砖引玉。     

中国房价与地价的关系——基于相关分析和因果分析的实证研究

近年,中国房价持续迅猛上涨引发了不少讨论和争议,其中房价和地价的关系也是热点之一。本文以中国房地产为研究对象,借助SPSS16．0和Eview5．0,采用实证研究方法,对中国自1999年第一季度到2009年第四季度的房价和地价数据进行相关分析和格兰杰因果分析,揭示房价与地价的相关性和两者之间的协整关系,以及中国房价和地价在短期乃至长期相互影响的状况,为房价调控策略选择提供科学依据。     

城市经济对住宅价格影响研究--以35个大中城市为例

住宅市场具有很强的地域特性,不同城市由于经济发展等因素的影响,造成住宅价格具有较大的差异。将城市经济分为城市经济规模、城市产业结构和城市经济效率,以35个大中城市为例,运用静态面板数据模型研究城市经济对住宅价格的影响。结果表明,城市经济对住宅价格具有很强的正相关作用,尤其是城市经济规模和城市产业结构。城市经济规模方面,GDP、地方财政支出对住宅价格具有显著的正面影响;城市产业结构方面,第三产业增加值占GDP比重越高,住宅价格越高;城市经济效率方面,人均地方财政收入和第二、三产业增加值与建成区面积之比都对住宅价格具有显著的正相关性。因此,城市在区域经济一体化的带动下将追求创新高效率的发展,同时优化城市空间结构和产业结构,有助于住宅市场的健康发展。     

中国房价与地价的关系——基于相关分析和因果分析的实证研究

近年,中国房价持续迅猛上涨引发了不少讨论和争议,其中房价和地价的关系也是热点之一。本文以中国房地产为研究对象,借助SPSS16.0和Eview5.0,采用实证研究方法,对中国自1999年第一季度到2009年第四季度的房价和地价数据进行相关分析和格兰杰因果分析,揭示房价与地价的相关性和两者之间的协整关系,以及中国房价和地价在短期乃至长期相互影响的状况,为房价调控策略选择提供科学依据。     

Unemployment risk, house price risk and the transition into home ownership in the United Kingdom

Using household panel data, this paper examines the impact of income uncertainty, in the form of unemployment risk, on home ownership in the United Kingdom. The existing literature based on cross-sectional studies finds a negative relationship between income uncertainty and home ownership. This paper utilises data on transitions into home ownership and exogenous variation in unemployment risk, avoiding the endogeneity of employment to home ownership status. It also conditions the empirical estimates on a measure of house price volatility utilising a local-level house price index to control house price risk, which might also discourage home ownership. Results show a strong role for unemployment risk in lowering the likelihood of house purchase, but no statistically significant role for house price risk.     

房价和地价相互关系的实证分析——基于上海等地数据的检验

房价与地价之间的关系问题一直是争议较大的热点,理论界有两种截然不同的观点：一种是成本论,从供给角度来看,地价决定房价;一种是需求论,从需求角度来看,地价上涨是由于房屋需求增加。本文基于长三角地区较有代表的四座城市数据对此问题进行分析。     

基于粒子群优化BP神经网络的房价预测

针对房价预测问题,文章给出一种基于粒子群优化的BP神经网络算法,并利用该算法提出两种预测房屋销售价格指数的方法。对房屋销售价格月指数的时间序列预测,直接建立PSO-BP模型;而对年指数预测,首先选择房价影响因素进行因子分析,然后在此基础上建立PSO-BP模型。两种对房屋销售价格指数的PSO-BP模型预测结果与BP模型相比,其精度均有较大提高,收敛更快。     

Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis

If borrowing capacity of indebted households is tied to the value of their home, house prices should enter a correctly specified aggregate Euler equation for consumption. I develop a simple two-agent, dynamic general equilibrium model in which home (collateral) values affect debt capacity and consumption possibilities for a fraction of the households. I then derive and estimate an aggregate consumption Euler equation, and estimate its structural parameters. The results provide robust support for housing prices as a driving force of consumption fluctuations.     

A mixed index approach to identifying hedonic price models

Recent literature suggests identifying house price hedonic regressions by using instrumental variables, spatial statistics, the borders approach, panel data, and other techniques. We present an empirical application of a mixed index model, first proposed by Bowden [Bowden, R.J., 1992. Competitive selection and market data: the mixed-index problem. The Review of Economic Studies 59(3):625–633.] to identify hedonic price regressions. We compare the performance of the mixed index model to a traditional hedonic model and to a hedonic model that includes characteristics of the buyer of each house. We find the mixed index model outperforms the other models based on bootstrap distributions of predicted housing values, prediction variance, and predicted policy effects. The mixed index model distributions are less skewed and kurtotic than the other models, suggesting it more closely satisfies the classical linear regression assumption of normally distributed errors. Compared to the mixed index model, the traditional hedonic overstates the importance of lot size and school quality to house price and understates the importance of environmental quality.     

House price convergence in euro zone and non-euro zone countries

This study investigates whether single currency use increased house price convergence among various countries. First, the panel unit root test results indicate that the house prices in euro zone countries were more correlated than the house prices in non-euro zone countries. Second, the house prices in various European countries converged towards the house prices in Germany, which uses the single currency, rather than towards those in the United Kingdom, indicating that single currency use increased the influence of the German housing market on other markets. Finally, the log t regression model, a new convergence test, was employed and determined that the house prices in various European countries were not converging before 1992 but began to do so after that year. After the euro was implemented as an official currency, the house prices in various countries converged towards a consistent level. On the basis of the relative transition paths, this study determines that the differences among housing markets in various countries have continuously decreased since 1992. The empirical results indicate that the law of one price is applicable to tradable goods and that single currency use can integrate housing markets, which include non-tradable goods.     

基于租赁价格的房地产价格泡沫测度研究--以广州市房地产价格数据为例

在对房地产基础价值进行界定的基础上,提出了基于房地产租赁价格并考虑通胀因素的房地产价格泡沫测度方法。利用广州市2001-2013年的相关数据,对房地产价格泡沫程度进行了分析,并提出了相应的警戒标准,进而得出结论：以广州市为代表的一线城市的房地产价格尚未达到30%的泡沫警戒线,房价涨跌幅度仍属市场机制调节的正常范围,因而没有必要采取非市场调节手段干预房价的正常波动。     

A house price index based on the SPAR method

Within the European Union there has been a push to provide European governments and the European Central Bank with the statistics they need for monitoring the owner-occupied sector. This paper reports on the results of a project to develop a house price index for the Netherlands. From January 2008, Kadaster, the Dutch land registry office, and Statistics Netherlands began jointly publishing house price index numbers for the whole country and for some specific dwelling types and regions. A number of special institutional features of the situation in the Netherlands contributed to the choice of index construction method. The indexes are computed using the Sale Price Appraisal Ratio (SPAR) method, which utilizes the ratios of transaction prices and previous appraisal values. We describe the SPAR method, compare it with repeat sales methods and assess the reliability of the official Dutch appraisal values. Empirical results for January 1995–March 2009 are presented. The SPAR method performs well compared to repeat sales, and the results reported will be of interest to other countries that have, or could instigate, institutional arrangements similar to those in the Netherlands.     

基于WebGIS的基准房价信息发布系统设计

基准房价是指以宗地为单位、同种用地类型的房地产单位面积的市场特征价格，构建基准房价的目的在于全面、及时、定量、准确地披露房地产价格体系。基准房价的研究可以为政府制定政策性住房售价、租金标准、征地拆迁补偿标准、房地产税费征收等提供参考依据，同时也可以为普通民众的房地产消费提供价格指导。鉴于基准房价研究的重要意义，在总结国内外基准房价概念、内涵、特点及其信息发布相关理论和技术现状的基础上，设计实现了一个基于WebGIS技术基准房价信息发布系统，经过试运行，用户可以通过该系统快速准确地查询研究区域内的基准房价及其相对应的空间信息。     

论征收补偿协议的行政法效力

房屋征收系政府行为,征收补偿协议系政府职能部门与被征收入签订的、解决征收补偿问题的法律行为。《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》（以下简称《征收条例》）第25条规定：“房屋征收部门与被征收入依照本条例的规定,就补偿方式、补偿金额和支付期限、用于产权调换房屋的地点和面积、搬迁费、临时安置费或者周转用房、     

Issues in measuring a monthly house price index in New Zealand

The sale price appraisal ratio (SPAR) method, which takes the ratios of the current house prices and their previous assessed values to construct an index, has been applied in New Zealand since the 1960s. This paper uses housing market transaction data for 12 cities in New Zealand (1994–2004) to develop monthly SPAR house price indices. These indices were subjected to a variety of statistical tests and benchmarked against the comparable monthly quality controlled weighted repeat sales indices. Finally, the paper provides some useful suggestions for future research based on the SPAR index and other alternative house price indices, such as the assessed value (AV) method.     

An exploration of factors influencing the choice of commodity price risk mitigation strategies

Most firms are exposed to price volatility associated with commodities, which can significantly affect the price paid for raw materials, energy, packaging, shipping, and component purchases. Commodity price risk represents the financial, operational and informational effects of commodity price volatility (CPV). The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the supply chain risk management literature by providing a taxonomy of commodity price risk mitigation strategies and factors that may influence the adoption of these strategies. A qualitative study was conducted using a grounded theory approach, based on case studies of companies with home operations in Italy, Germany, and the US. The paper provides some initial evidence for theory and practice as to: 1) how firms can mitigate the risk from CPV by implementing various sourcing, contracting, and financing strategies; and 2) the influence of commodity/product factors, buying organization factors, supply chain factors, and external environment factors on strategy capability and choice.     

Daily House Price Indices: Construction,Modeling, and Longer‐run Predictions

We construct daily house price indices for 10 major US metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat‐sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case–Shiller house price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of longer‐run monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower‐frequency data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多空间尺度普通住宅用地的合理地价研究

本文通过房价收入比、地价房价比的关系对住宅市场地价水平的合理值进行估计,用区间分析法来研究普通住宅用地的合理地价区间。考虑到区域差距、行业收入差距大,对国家级、省市级、地区级甚至细化到城市的环线和小区级别,对不同空间尺度下的中等收入家庭年收入等参数进行分析,来估计不同空间尺度下的普通住宅用地的合理地价水平。这有助于建立风险预警系统,引导房地产业向健康稳健方向发展。     

城市商品住宅价格的影响因素研究——以重庆为例

在分析城市商品住宅价格影响因素的基础之上,建立商品住宅价格的计量经济模型。运用模型对重庆市主城区商品住宅价格进行的实证分析结论表明,影响重庆商品住宅价格最主要的因素是居民人均可支配收入,这与实际比较吻合。预计在未来一段时期,重庆市商品住宅价格将随城市经济的发展而稳步提高。