中国寿险产品退保率的影响因素分析——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

本文利用2001-2011年我国各省区的宏观经济与保险数据,考察了影响寿险产品退保率的多种因素。通过固定效应面板数据模型分析,检验了"资金应急假说"、"市场利率假说"和"产品替换假说",为"资金应急假说"和"市场利率假说"提供了新的证据。研究结果表明:长期利率、短期利率和利差显著地影响保单持有人的决策,利率和利差的上升会造成退保率的提高;退保率和失业率、城镇人均住房支出呈正相关关系,和城镇居民收入呈显著负相关关系,结果显示城乡收入差距拉大对退保行为具有较大影响,阻碍了保险市场的发展;新单保险比例也对退保行为产生较大影响。此外,高龄比和金融增加比例也会影响投保人的退保行为。     

中国央行票据对人民币利率和汇率的影响——来自香港地区离岸市场的证据

本文采用事件分析法量化分析中国离岸央行票据发行对在岸和离岸人民币利率、汇率和汇率预期的影响。实证结果发现:第一,离岸央行票据发行对在岸和离岸人民币利率具有明显预公告效应,且在发行事件后对在岸和离岸人民币利率下跌有短期抑制作用;第二,离岸央行票据发行对离岸人民币汇率有预公告效应和缩小人民币贬值幅度的作用,但并不能抑制在岸人民币汇率的贬值趋势;第三,离岸央行票据发行使在岸和离岸人民币汇率均出现了短暂的汇率升值预期。     

中国共享式经济增长实证研究——基于公共支出、部门效应和政府治理的分析

文章首先基于多维贫困指标SHPI构建了共享式增长指数PEG,然后运用公共支出、政府治理水平和部门效应三个方面的指标来考察共享式增长。文章具体通过协整和误差修正模型分析了长期和短期影响共享式增长的主要因素及其调整机制,并在此基础上重点估计了各部门公共支出对共享式增长的影响。文章发现1978-2008年中国经济增长总体上具有共享性,但是大部分年份的共享程度较低。长期内,在公共支出、部门效应和政府治理水平三大类因素中公共支出方面的三个变量对PEG的影响最大。短期内,政府一般性支出和政府规模对共享式增长程度有非常显著的消极影响。     

转移支付对地方支出规模影响——来自全国县级面板数据的证据

本文通过理论分析认为转移支付对地方支出规模的影响由三个效应综合决定:直接收入效应、对地方自有收入的替代效应、通过影响经济增长的间接收入效应。基于2002——2009年全国县级面板数据,本文实证分析了转移支付对地方支出规模的综合效应和对地方自有收入的替代效应,研究发现转移支付对支出规模的综合效应为0.065,而替代效应为-0.073。此外,本文还考察了转移支付的区域效应:西部县市的综合效应和替代效应最大。国税与地税并行的征税管理体制,以及地方财权与事权的不匹配是转移支付对地方支出规模产生"粘蝇纸"效应的重要原因。本文结论对明晰地方支出责任和匹配财权与事权具有一定政策参考价值。     

中国股市市值对货币需求影响的实证分析

文章使用1994年1季度至2007年2季度数据,应用协整理论和误差修正模型估计出加入股市市值变量的货币需求函数,得出初步的结论是:我国股市市值、国内生产总值、实际利率、预期通货膨胀率与货币需求之间具有长期稳定的协整关系。股市市值在长期内会增加货币需求。而在短期动态方程中,滞后两期的股市市值一阶差分对货币需求的系数为负值,表现出资产替代效应。     

文化特征对用户采纳手机支付作用的研究

目前以手机支付为代表的移动商务在我国的发展并不尽如人意,文章认为文化是一个非常重要的不可忽略的影响因素.但是,目前国内外关于文化如何影响手机支付的研究还很少.文章从消费者个体层面首次详细全面地阐述了文化的五个维度(权利距、不确定性避免、个人主义/集体主义、男权主义/女权主义和长期导向/短期导向)作为决定变量和调节变量对用户采纳手机支付的影响,通过对模型的构建与验证,文章的十二项假设有八项获得数据支持.研究结果表明具有不同文化特征的个体在实际采纳手机支付时会做出不同的选择.因此,手机支付服务供应商应该重视个体消费者的文化差异,为不同的目标客户群提供手机支付应用来最大程度上满足消费者的需求.     

非线性泰勒规则及其政策效果——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析

本文以通货膨胀率为转换变量,建立了Logistic平滑转换形式的非线性泰勒规则,并将其纳入到具有微观基础的新凯恩斯DSGE模型中进行分析.文章利用1996年1月至2012年12月的数据通过贝叶斯估计,测定了货币政策拐点和转换速度,并进一步分析了各冲击因素对经济波动的短期和长期影响.研究表明实际货币余额冲击和货币政策冲击是造成我国经济波动的主要因素,因此,合理运用货币政策、调整短期利率,是保持经济平稳快速增长、管理通货膨胀的关键.     

经济开放对中国就业的长期和短期影响效应——基于跨省面板数据的协整与误差修正模型的再检验

文章基于1996—2007年的省际面板数据,采用面板协整和面板误差修正模型的计量方法就经济开放对我国国内就业的长期和短期影响效应进行了深入的实证分析,研究结果表明：（1）出口是就业增长的长期和短期原因,且长期的拉动效应更大;进口在长期和短期对国内劳动力都具有替代效应,且长期的影响弹性较小;外资是就业增加的长期原因但其对就业的影响效应很弱;（2）出口、进口和外资对就业变化的平均贡献度分别为12.994%、-4.051%和0.392%,总体的经济开放因素对就业变化的平均贡献度为9.336%,且贡献度的变化趋势表现为倒＂U＂型。     

人寿保险需求的结构性差异:保障和投资

人寿保险包括传统寿险和投资寿险两大类,本文比较和检验主要因素对这两类寿险需求的影响有何不同。作者利用我国2008年284个地级单位的截面数据,分别采用似无相关回归和三阶段最小二乘回归估计两类寿险的需求方程。主要发现:社会保障对传统寿险以替代效应为主,对投资寿险以收入效应为主;投资寿险对居民储蓄的转化能力显著强于传统寿险;预期通货膨胀降低了传统寿险需求,却增加了投资寿险需求;金融发展对投资寿险的促进作用显著大于传统寿险。在考虑供给因素并考虑其内生性问题后,本文结论保持稳健。     

专业化与企业风险——以寿险业为例

考虑到不同企业所在地区的资源禀赋等环境因素存在差异,本文以一家企业的产品结构与该企业所在市场的产品结构的差异度来度量该企业的专业化,称之为“相对专业化”.本文以2006-2016年中国地级(及以上)地区的寿险机构的分产品部门的数据为样本.考虑到专业化常常是内生变量,本文利用数据的层级结构,为专业化构造了合适的工具变量.通过回归分析发现:寿险公司的专业化程度提高1个标准差,赔付风险将降低17.11～23.77个百分点,退保风险将降低0.70～1.64个百分点;专业化对赔付风险和退保风险的负向影响在金融危机期间强于其他期间,在市场经济越发达的地区作用越强.     

基础养老保险缴费率膨胀系数研究*

围绕国家提出降低养老保险缴费率的宗旨,本文研究适度降低基础养老保险缴费率的路径,提出养老保险缴费率膨胀系数概念和定量研究数理模型。本文提出,社会保障体制转轨的“成本叠加”、全社会代际交叠的“有限责任”、个人生命周期的“不可预期”是导致养老保险缴费率膨胀的主要原因和内在规律。定量研究发现,现存养老保险缴费率膨胀系数为944%,其中覆盖面膨胀系数为559%,遵缴率膨胀系数为369%,提前退休膨胀系数为016%。纵向回归研究发现,覆盖面的膨胀系数弹性为-015,遵缴率的膨胀系数弹性为-02,提前退休的膨胀系数弹性为0938。在此基础上,本文提出了相关建议。 \     

Depreciated Depreciation Methods? Alternatives to Sraffa’s Take on Fixed Capital

This article discusses the treatment of fixed capital in the classical theory of price. Sraffa uses non-linear depreciation of ‘physical’ capital that equalizes all annual profit rates individually, but violates the proportionality of monetary machine value reduction and physical use-up on an annual basis. One alternative is to apply simple linear depreciation that has equal annual fixed capital costs. The key for consistency is that the internal rate of return on fixed capital investments throughout the fixed asset lifetime must be equated with the normal profit rate. A second alternative is to use ‘monetary’ capital, where the ‘correct’ amortization charges depend on the ability of the accumulated depreciation fund to earn interest. Among these valid alternative methods are the original proposals of Marx and Torrens, which were dismissed falsely and prematurely by Neo-Ricardian economists. These alternatives are shown here to imply fundamentally different prices of production. For all methods, the formulas for deriving amortization charges and fixed capital prices of all vintages are derived. The article also illustrates how the system of Sraffian price equations can be modified to incorporate these methods.     

The impact of economic factors on treatment results for tumor inpatients in the under-developed Western region of China

Objective:

To discuss the influences of economic factors on the treatment outcomes of cancer patients and the relaxation effects of medical insurance policies on the influences of economic factors.

Method:

The concentration index (CI) and horizontal inequality (HI) of treatment outcomes of cancer patients were calculated and the role of the economy, disease, and other factors to HI was analyzed by describing the influence of treatment expense on the treatment outcomes of different cancer patients.

Results:

The study showed that the equity of the death rate and the effective rate of six types of cancer patients was good. The HI of the cure rate was 0.225, indicating a strong, pro-rich inequity of the cancer inpatient cure rate, while the contribution of the economic factors to HI was 0.158. The uncured rate in the low-cost group represented the rate of patients who discontinued the treatment; the HI was ?0.324, indicating a strong, pro-poor inequity. The relaxation effect on the HI of the cured rate by medical insurance was 14.9%, while the effect on the HI of the uncured rate was 18.7%.

Conclusion:

At present, medical insurance has demonstrated relaxation effects on the fairness of treatment outcomes to some extent. The main reason for this inequity comes from the payment of the items at present. To relieve such inequity to a greater extent, the payment system should be changed and diagnosis-related groups should be implemented.     

我国寿险需求影响因素的实证分析

运用1985—2005年的有关数据,对影响我国寿险需求的相关因素进行回归分析。结果表明:国民收入、赡养率和寿险供给对于我国寿险需求的影响显著;而名义利率和预期的通货膨胀率对我国寿险需求的影响不显著。     

On the neglect of foreign exchange risk premiums

This note discusses the slope coefficient of a linear regression of the rate of exchange rate depreciation on the interest differential. It is shown that the variance of the rationally expected rate of depreciation exceeds the variance of the foreign exchange risk premium if that coefficient exceeds the value 0.5 (and vice versa). Empirical results indicating that the variance of the risk Premium typically exceeds the variance of the rationally expected rate of depreciation are presented.     

大额补充医疗保险发展模式分析

大额补充医疗保险是针对基本医疗保险统筹基金最高支付限额以上部分进行补偿而建立的保险形式.苏州、石家庄和山东三地的大额补充医疗保险运作实例,代表了现有的三大主流大额补充医疗保险运作模式.大额补充医疗保险未来合理的发展模式主要是医疗保障部门与保险公司合作经营,工会、行业或企业与保险公司合作也是一条重要途径.     

中国社会保险制度架构的缺陷

中国在制度惠及面方面,社会保险大大低于劳动保险。因为劳动保险是综合性制度安排,社会保险制度则是分险种而设定。事实上,除了养老和失业保险两个险种外,其他险种的覆盖面还很低。社会保险分险种进行制度安排所产生的一个后果是:综合缴费率过高,不仅抬高了制度门槛,而且不利于提高企业的竞争力,使社会保险覆盖面既扩不大,也扩不得。     

Individual Stock Returns and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Japanese Data

The present paper uses Japanese firm‐level data to investigate the effects of monetary policy on stock. The main purpose of this paper is to examine whether monetary policy has heterogeneous effects on stock returns and whether such heterogeneity can be explained by existing theories of monetary transmission mechanisms. We find little evidence that the demand sides of the interest rate and balance sheet channels explain the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy. However, there is evidence that the supply sides of the interest rate and balance sheet channels, when measured by capital intensity, financial leverage and interest payment burden, can explain its heterogeneous effects.     

Portfolio efficiency analysis with SFA: the case of PSI-20 companies

This study aimed to assess the technical efficiency (TE) of individual companies and their respective sectors that are traded on the Portuguese stock market. We accomplished this by combining the internal input variables (e.g., ‘market value and return’) with exogenous variables (e.g., ‘interest income’, ‘depreciation’, ‘cost of goods’, ‘employees’ and ‘net sales’) into a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model. The TE of the PSI-20 (Portuguese Stock Index) was estimated using factors that affect efficiency variability. The main advantage of using the SFA approach is its potential to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process. The results demonstrated that TE is higher for enterprises in the industrial, construction and distribution sectors, whereas the commercial banking sector has the lowest TE scores. The ‘employees’ and ‘depreciation’ are the variables which most contribute to stock market inefficiency.     

Capital income taxation,depreciation allowances and economic growth: A perfect-foresight general equilibrium model

Conclusions The results indicated in Table 1 show that incomplete depreciation allowances reinforce the distortions in the equilibrium growth path brought about by an ideal capital income tax. A reduction in the deductible share of economic depreciation, like an increase in the tax rate, raises the current level of consumption, but reduces the steady state levels of consumption and capital per efficiency unit of labour.The reason for these distortions is that the tax law is able to drive wedges both between the rate of time preference and the market rate of interest, and between the latter and the marginal productivity of capital. The first wedge is created through capital income taxation as such and its size is directly related to the tax rate. The second wedge is created by the incomplete deductibility of depreciation. Its size is directly related to the tax rate and inversely to the deductible share of depreciation. For the distortion in the growth path of the economy it is the sum of the two wedges that counts. Therefore it is plausible that incomplete depreciation allowances reinforce the effects of capital income taxation.Knowing the determinants of the two wedges one can easily derive the influence of a tax reform on the marginal productivity of capital, the market rate of interest and the rate of time preference (cf. Table 2). In the short run, the system of these three interest rates is anchored by the marginal productivity of capital, and hence any measure that widens a wedge is translated into a reduction in the rate or those rates below the wedge. In the long run the system is anchored by the rate of time preference and an increase in the width of a wedge is translated into an increase in those rates or that rate above this wedge.The paper was written in association with the Sonderforschungsbereich 5 (Staatliche Allokationspolitik im marktwirtschaftlichen System).