Hazardous waste sites and property values in the state of New Jersey

The polluter pays principal is justified as a deterrent to future pollution. However, the US experience suggests that it has considerably reduced the clean up rate of existing hazardous waste sites. Coaseapos;s theorem is used as basis to propose that a partnership between the polluters and property owners near these sites will not only ease financial burden but will also speed up the pace of cleanup. A hedonic price model is used to empirically estimate the impact of siting of hazardous waste sites on property values and determine the economic feasibility of the proposed partnership. The empirical estimates are based on municipality level data from the state of New Jersey. The benefis from speedy clean up of hazardous waste sites to New Jersey property owners are observed to exceed the cleanup cost of these sites.     

Foreign investors’ influence on the real estate market capitalization rate – evidence from a small open economy

This article adds to the scarce literature on the influence of international investment flows on local real estate values. We hypothesize that a greater foreign-investor presence in a real estate market results in a lower capitalization rate and examine whether this holds true in the Helsinki CBD office market in Finland. This market provides an interesting case study by being part of a small open economy, in which the presence of foreign investors has substantially varied over time. The Dynamic OLS estimations using data for the period 1990–2015 provide support for the hypothesis. The baseline results show a highly statistically significant negative impact of foreign-investor participation on the capitalization rate, the point estimates indicating that a 10% point growth in the share of foreign buyers of the total transaction volume decreases the cap rate by approximately 30 basis points.     

金融冲击与房地产市场波动*——一个宏观分析框架及中国的经验证据

本文从总量宏观分析的视角,提出了金融变量与房地产市场的“总体冲击—传导机制”假说,据此用中国的数据构建金融状况指数（包含房价的FCI1和不包含房价的FCI2）,再对金融状况指数（FCI1和FCI2）与房地产指数做实证分析。研究发现,在资产价格中房价比股价更能反映一国的金融状况;在引入金融状况指数的金融变量中,利率与房价的相关性最强;房价和利率对总产出的影响周期更长。国房景气指数、房地产投资指数和房价指数对FCI冲击的响应显著,并存在不同的表现。由于房价对居民财富、金融状况和宏观经济的影响显著,货币政策理应干预房价,必须精准把握干预的时机和干预的力度以及注重多种货币政策工具的有效搭配使用。     

市场情绪如何影响城市房价

基于行为金融学理论建立了房地产情绪指数影响房价的模型，借鉴Baker and Wurgler（2006）提出的构建资本市场投资者情绪指数的方法，从供需两方选取合适的情绪指标；同时，运用大数据方法，选取百度指数作为情绪指标，运用主成分分析法构建了我国35个大中城市房地产市场的情绪指数，实证研究了市场情绪对房地产价格的影响。另外，还测度不同区域房地产市场情绪指数，通过实证分析横向对比东部和中西部城市市场情绪对房价的影响程度。实证结果表明，市场情绪对房地产价格有着显著的正向影响；市场情绪对房地产价格的正向影响呈现区域异质性，东部地区市场情绪对房地产价格的正向影响强于中西部地区。     

The valuation of landfill disamenities in Birmingham

The disposal of waste by landfill generates community concerns, during both site operations and following the cessation of activities. Whilst previous hedonic studies have generally examined the impact on property prices of distance to the nearest active landfill site this paper presents a study for Birmingham in England in which properties are simultaneously located close to numerous active and historical landfill sites. Accounting for the proximity of historical landfill sites alters the perceived disamenity impact of active sites and furthermore, reveals evidence of significant disamenity impacts, decades after site closure, albeit over shorter geographical distances. Estimated disamenity impacts are however somewhat sensitive to assumptions regarding the geographical range of the externalities generated by landfill.     

Internal Migration Determinants: Recent Evidence

The present study investigates the impact on gross state in-migration over the 1999–2002 period of a variety of economic and non-economic factors. The empirical estimates indicate that gross state in-migration was an increasing function of expected per capita income on the one hand or actual per capita income on the other hand and a decreasing function of the average cost of living. Interstate unemployment rate differentials per se do not appear to have influenced gross migration, however. In addition, gross state in-migration was an increasing function of the availability of state parks, recreation, warmer temperatures, location in the West, and greater sunshine while being a decreasing function of the violent crime rate and the presence of hazardous waste sites.Revised version of a paper presented at the 56th International Atlantic Economic Conference, Quebec City, Canada, October 16–19, 2003.     

房价波动、隐含担保与银行系统性风险*

银行对房地产行业的信贷优先倾向导致信贷投放向房地产业集中,房地产价格波动对金融系统性风险的影响日益突出。本文基于银行与房地产两部门或有权益资产负债表分析框架,从资产和负债两个方面研究房地产部门对银行的风险传导机制,构造银行对房地产部门的隐含担保比例作为度量风险传导强度的指标,运用TVP VAR方法刻画2002—2016年我国房价波动与房地产部门、银行系统性风险的动态演变路径。研究结果表明,我国房地产风险主要通过银行信贷从负债项进行风险传导,房地产部门风险对风险传导强度的影响存在明显的结构性突变,银行系统性风险存在非线性加速恶化特征。本文最后提出要稳定房价、拓宽房地产融资渠道、降低地方政府对土地财政依赖等建议。     

Alternative Land-Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo

The System of National Accounts (SNA) requires separate estimates for the land and structure components of a commercial property. Using transactions data for the sales of office buildings in Tokyo, a hedonic regression model (the “builder’s model”) was estimated and this model generated an overall property price index as well as subindexes for the land and structure components of the office buildings. The builder’s model was also estimated using appraisal data on office building real estate investment trusts (REITs) for Tokyo. These hedonic regression models also generated estimates for net depreciation rates, which can be compared. Finally, the Japanese government constructs annual official land prices for commercial properties based on appraised values. The paper compares these official land prices with the land prices generated by the hedonic regression models based on transactions data and on REIT data. The results reveal that commercial property indexes based on appraisal and assessment prices lag behind the indexes based on transaction prices.     

Valuing externalities from energy infrastructures through stated preferences: a geographically stratified sampling approach

The externalities produced by high-voltage transmission lines are multidimensional, may strongly depend on the local context, and are thus difficult to capture through standard environmental valuation exercises. We experiment a GIS approach to design a geographically stratified contingent valuation sample of the population resident in infrastructure corridors in a whole region. We estimate, by means of a binary choice logit model, the perceived marginal damage from impacts of power lines on human health, the landscape and the environment. Specific treatment is given to qualitatively different forms of impact, namely real estate depreciation versus diffused perception of damage, arising at different distances from the lines. The set of GIS-based variables (proximity to power lines, presence of other infrastructure, endowment of natural and built heritage and other local context variables) prove to be significant predictors in the utility function of resident households. Finally, we compute simulated values that combine information on individual’s willingness to pay, population density and the dimension of the considered corridor around the infrastructure, so as to generalize the outcomes of case-specific studies for use in policy choices such as infrastructure localization, undergrounding and negotiation of compensations.     

房地产市场对银行收益的系统性影响研究——以美国、中国香港、中国大陆市场为例

文章研究了三地上市银行和房地产公司股票之间的收益关系,发现三个市场的银行股票收益都显著地受到房地产股票波动的影响,并且利用三地数据的结构性差异点,确定了次贷危机发生作用的时点.对比次贷危机前后的三个市场银行股和房地产股票收益的关系后发现,代表银行股收益对房地产股波动敏感性的回归系数在次贷危机后均有所增大,显示美国和中国的银行业所面临的房地产风险已经由非系统性风险转变为系统性风险,其风险敞口在加大.     

消费传导视角下资产 价格对物价水平的影响

本文在生命周期-持久收入（LC PIH）模型基础上分析了资产价格波动对居民消费及物价水平的影响，发现资产价格波动可以通过预算约束效应、实际收入效应、预期收入效应与替代效应四个渠道影响资产持有者的消费行为，进而影响物价水平。在此基础上，本文运用ARDL UECM模型实证分析了资产价格对物价水平的影响，实证结果发现股票、房地产价格在长期内与物价存在相关关系，房地产价格是影响物价水平的重要因素，但股票价格对物价的影响不显著且不稳定。     

Housing price variability: national and local impacts

This article examines the influence of national and local forces on housing prices in 20 local US real estate markets during the recent housing price run-up and decline. We use reduced-form panel data fixed-effects models with robust SEs to determine the impact of national and local effects on housing prices in 20 US cities across time. A national home price index and mortgage rate are used to measure national impacts on the local markets. A mix of socio-economic variables estimates local impacts. We find no results indicating that national trends lack relevance in local markets; however, we find wide support for the additional inclusion of local socio-economic factors in all markets. The findings are consistent with an environment in which national polices and trends influence all markets; however local policymakers and investors can continue to expect geographic differences in market outcomes.     

Hollowing out of the Real Economy: Evidence from China’s Listed Firms

The paper studies an often-observed phenomenon of diversification of manufacturing firms into real estate development in East Asian economies. Utilizing a sudden change in China’s accounting standards that requires firms to disclose information about their real estate holdings for investment purpose (or investment property), we examine both the impact of such diversification on firms’ investment in their original business and the stock market response to such diversification. Our results confirm there exists underinvestment in original business (or hollowing out of the real economy) for firms diversifying into real estate, and that there is a lack of investor response to such diversification, in both short-run and long-run. Our study calls for further research on the role of real estate development in the long-run competitiveness of developing economies.     

商业银行信贷配给对中国房地产业波动的影响*

商业银行信贷配给控制中国房地产业信贷规模和结构,造成供给和需求的规模与结构扭曲,影响货币政策和财政政策的调控效果,容易引起房地产业波动。本文通过构建信贷配给模型,测算不同波动时期当中,商业银行信贷配给程度的变化趋势,以及对房地产业的影响。实证结果显示,信贷配给程度的变化与房地产业波动显著相关,信贷配给改变了投资和消费在推动房地产产出过程中的结构,并制约路径依赖对产出的影响,同时影响财政政策和数量型货币政策稳定房地产业的效果。本文认为,可以通过逐渐弱化商业银行在房地产金融市场中的垄断地位,丰富房地产信贷供给层次和结构,以及加强信贷供给监督来缓解信贷配给的消极作用。     

基于可靠性理论和W-F定律的房地产市场预警系统研究

本文基于可靠性理论对房地产市场预警系统进行了可靠性识别,根据韦伯-费希纳(W-F)定律描述了房地产市场预警指标与人的主观意识影响指数的关系,并确定了预警对象对人的主观意识综合影响指数,将其作为评定房地产市场预警状态的依据。对2002—2008年河北省廊坊市房地产市场的预警研究表明,基于可靠性理论和韦伯-费希纳定律的房地产市场预警方法是可行的。     

限购背景下存准率与房价的关系研究

2010年以来,我国主要的大中城市纷纷出台了商品房的限购政策,同期法定存款准备金率也多次调整.在限购政策背景下,本文运用广义矩(GMM)方法,将限购政策作为逻辑变量加入到估计模型中,对限购背景下的存款准备金率调整与商品房价格的关系进行了定量分析.结果表明,限购政策对于抑制房价过快上涨具有显著意义,同时,政府上调存款准备金率在滞后2期和3期时对于抑制商品房价格过快上涨也具有一定的积极作用,但商品房价格不会因存款准备金率的上调而出现急速下跌,而是在存款准备金率持续上调的过程中呈现出先上涨后下跌,再上涨、再下跌的交替变化特征.研究同时发现,限购政策和存款准备金率调整对于我国东部地区城市影响显著,而对于中西部城市影响则不显著.基于此,本文提出了运用存款准备金率手段在抑制商品房价格过快上涨过程中的对策建议.     

政策对房地产价格影响分析

政策作为影响地价的重要因素对地价起着全面性、覆盖性的影响作用。近年来土地价格变化较大，增长较为迅猛，部分长三角、珠三角和京津地区的增长速度较快，为此国家出台了各项政策以调控房地产市场。通过建立1997-2006年上海市房地产价格指数的回归模型，将房地产政策量化后作为影响房地产价格的指标进行回归分析，验证了政策对房地产价格的实际影响力。     

房地产周期、固定资产 投资周期与经济周期的关联性 ——基于货币政策视角下的分析

本文应用TVSTAR方法实证研究了房地产周期、固定资产投资周期与经济周期的关联性，以及货币供给量M0，M1和利率的调整对联动的影响。研究结果显示，经济增长周期与房地产周期间存在显著的区制性特征。在收缩区制，房地产周期的变动是引起CPI周期变动的原因，而固定资产投资周期具有显著的逆经济增长周期的波动特征。在扩张区制，货币供给量M0和M1增加，对稳定经济增长、增加投资和维持房地产市场的繁荣具有积极作用，但持续和过度的宽松货币政策易引发通胀和房地产泡沫，在收缩区制，上述货币政策工具失效。     

我国房地产税与房价关系的实证研究

本文以我国1988--2006年房地产税和房价的相关数据为基础,通过协整分析、向量自回归、误差修正和Granger因果检验,研究了我国房地产税对房价的短期影响及两者的长期关系。结论如下：我国房地产税和房价之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,房价和房地产税存在正相关关系,调高房地产税会引起房价增长;在不考虑地方公共支出对房价影响的情况下,房地产税的长期影响效应要大于短期影响效应;我国房地产税制设置欠完善,房地产税的变化会影响房价,而房价的变化不会影响房地产税。最后,本文提出,应对现行的房地产税收制度进行改革,减少房地产流通环节的税种和税负,开征物业税。     

基于系统动力学的房地产调控政策动态仿真模型

从供需两个方面综合分析了土地政策、税收政策和金融政策对我国房地产市场的影响路径和传导机理。运用系统动力学分析原理,构建了房地产调控政策动态分析模型,并利用计算机软件进行仿真模拟。对拟实施政策效果进行比较分析的结果显示:土地政策对我国房地产市场的影响最大,税收政策对房地产供给市场的影响比对需求市场的影响大;同时调节利率工具和信贷工具变量,金融政策仍对我国房地产市场的影响不大。最后提出,我国应将调控供给作为调控房地产市场的重点。