可计算的一般非均衡模型

本文根据现实世界经济变化的鲜明特征，建立了一个多部门市场经济的可计算非均衡动态模型。该模型突出了市场经济运转中市场中介入的核心作用：即在供求不等的价位上如何促使买卖成交，在生产和消费计划不协调的情况下如何协调生产、交换和消费活动。文章用递归（recursive-programming）方法模拟了市场的非均衡动态过程，部门内、部门间和市场上的反馈系统结构以及各种产品、投入物的存货调节机制和价格形成机制。经济人受约束的理性行为、适应性行为和小心谨慎行为以及若干经济制度特征都按可操作、可运转、可计算的方式进行了详细精致地描述和刻画。     

非均衡的经济动态模型

本文旨在按现实世界的本来面目建立一个非均衡的内生经济动态模型。在这个模型中 ,源于部门内和部门间关系的内生变量导致资本市场、消费品市场上产量和价格的波动。市场的非均衡过程、存货调节机制以及经济人的最优行为和适应性行为是基于对现实世界的观察进行模拟的。静态性质及其稳定性是作为一般市场动态过程的特例加以讨论的。     

上市公司会计造假的外部成因分析

无论是在证券市场高度完善的美国 ,还是在证券市场机制有待健全的中国 ,人们笼罩在会计造假的阴影之中。会计造假作为经济人的一种行为 ,有其产生的原因及其内在的规律 ,以及给社会造成的严重后果。如何有效的解决会计造假的问题 ?本文旨从外部角度进行分析并寻求对策。一、上市公司会计造假的分析著名的经济学家萨缪尔森曾指出 :“对现代经济行为没有两手 (市场与政府 )使之运转 ,这好像孤掌难鸣一样。”现代的市场经济应是市场 (右手 )与政府 (左手 )的协调 ,即动态的分工合作才是万能的。会计造假不是市场经济的错 ,造假的泛滥恰恰是经济…     

非均衡劳动力市场的真实经济周期模型

真实经济周期(RBC)模型通常以市场出清的一般均衡为其理论框架。这使我们无法有效的将这一跨时期的动态优化模型应用于现实的经济环境,因为现实的世界里普遍存在着各种非均衡的状况。本文将劳动的供给和需求分离开来,从而允许非均衡的劳动力市场存在。利用美国的数据,我们对该模型进行了实证检验,结果表明该模型能够更好的解释劳动力市场的波动及消费和就业间的关系,同时说明该模型在数据的拟和上比标准RBC模型更好。     

基于人力资本视角的劳动力市场非均衡分析

以非均衡理论为基础,构建了具有人力资本因素的劳动力市场非均衡模型,探讨了引入人力资本因素后非均衡劳动力市场如何变化,以及在不同的非均衡区域的劳动力市场供求关系的变化对人力资本因素的要求和影响,据此提出了相应的经济决策方法和建议。     

消费攀比、劳动调整成本与中国经济波动

引入消费攀比与劳动调整成本两种内生机制于动态随机一般均衡模型,显著改善了模型对于中国经济动态特征的匹配性,它能够增强消费的持久性动态特征,而且准确地复制出了实际经济对中性技术冲击的“驼峰”反应动态以及劳动力市场的反周期动态.进一步,我们定量分析了中国经济波动的来源问题,发现中性技术冲击和投资冲击对中长期波动的显著解释力.     

非均衡劳动力市场的真实经济周期模型

真实经济周期(RBC)模型通常以市场出清的一般均衡为其理论框架。这使我们无法有效的将这一跨时期的动态优化模型应用于现实的经济环境，因为现实的世界里普遍存在着各种非均衡的状况。本将劳动的供给和需求分离开来，从而允许非均衡的劳动力市场存在。利用美国的数据，我们对该模型进行了实证检验，结果表明该模型能够更好的解释劳动力市场的波动及消费和就业间的关系，同时说明该模型在数据的拟和上比标准RBC模型更好。     

日,美两国宏观调控模式的比较及其启示

日、美两国宏观调控模式的比较及其启示苗丽静健全的宏观调控体系是高效率的现代市场经济体制的重要构件与关键环节。我国的宏观调控是通过计划、财政和银行等部门进行的。在建立社会主义市场经济的过程中,三部门协调机制的正确设计与有效运转,在很大程度上影响着宏观经...     

我国工伤保险预防机制的研究

工伤保险是市场经济国家安全生产工作的三大支柱之一,工伤保险与安全生产相结合的合点是工伤预防.工伤预防功能发挥的作用越大,对安全生产的促进作用也就越大.而我国工伤保险存在行政部门割裂、费率机制尚未形成、事故预防不明确等问题,而这些方面正是影响工伤保险事故预防功能发挥的主要障碍.对此本文在借鉴典型发达国家预防机制运行情况的基础上.对部门机构的协调,如何利用市场力量搞好预防工作;如何确定差别费率、浮动费率以及预防基金比例.提出了相应的看法.     

人民币汇率的非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率

在现行制度背景下 ,本文从我国外汇市场经济主体微观行为出发 ,建立了我国的外汇需求和供给函数 ;进而分析了市场的均衡和非均衡态势 ,讨论了人民币汇率稳定运行态势后面的微观行为原因。分析发现 :1 .人民币汇率的非均衡是必然的和经常的 ,不能形成市场均衡汇率。在此背景下形成的现实汇率势必是扭曲的汇率 ,由此导致外汇资源的配置扭曲以及相应的真实资源配置扭曲。 2 .在汇率的稳定和调节机制上 ,当前汇率制度类似于“可调整的盯住汇率制” ,我国汇率制度因此具有固定汇率制的特征 ,但不具备固定汇率制的汇率稳定机制———稳定的汇率预期。 3 .现行汇率制度构成对汇率政策的严重制约 ,调节国际收支不得不倚重于直接管制政策的运用 ;货币政策丧失了独立性 ,加剧宏观经济的波动。这种低效率表明 ,我国当前汇率制度及其微观市场安排急待改革。     

A DISEQUILIBRIUM ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE AUSTRALIAN RAW WOOL MARKET*

This paper develops a quarterly disequilibrium model of the Australian wool market. It is postulated that because of inherent market imperfections the market does not clear. The model consists of demand and supply equations for both private and government traders, a minimum condition to determine quantity transacted and a price adjustment equation based on excess demand/supply. Effective demand/supply concepts which recognise the expectation of rationing are employed to model private demand/supply. Supplier price expectations explicitly account for the lower bound imposed by the minimum reserve price scheme (RPS). The estimates suggest that the disequilibrium hypothesis cannot be rejected, as a consequence measures of market imbalance are provided. The model is also used to simulate the effects of the removal of the RPS.     

Employment,labor supply and real wages in market disequilibrium

The purpose of this paper is to provide estimates of a disequilibrium labor market model which has been fitted to the US private non-farm sector and to the manufacturing sector. After examining the rationale of the ‘minimum’-type disequilibrium model, we reject it in favor of a formulation suggested by Chow. The latter provides not only a wage adjustment mechanism, but also a quantity adjustment mechanism and treats wages and quantities symmetrically. The empirical findings for both sectors support the disequilibrium formulation employed and reject the equilibrium hypothesis for the labor market.     

An alternative measure of wage flexibility

Wage flexibility is usually defined as the responsiveness of wages to market disequilibrium. But market disequilibrium can be defined in different ways. One can accept a non-Walrasian definition of equilibrium, the market being in equilibrium when agents have no incentive to change their decisions, even if a change of wages can improve their position. To study the behavior of wages as an equilibrating variable, it is appropriate to consider Walrasian demand and supply functions, in which wages are allowed to move in each period in a direction to restore equilibrium between Walrasian demand and supply, even when agents experience restrictions and take notice of these restrictions when making decisions. The degree of wage flexibility is most often measured as the amount of equilibrating change that took place in a certain period. In most wage equations wage flexibility is measured by the coefficient of the unemployment variable, which links the equilibrating change in the wage variable to the degree of market disequilibrium. The equalization of market disequilibrium with unemployment poses some problems. The authors wish to thank Freddy Heylen of the University of Gent for helpful comments.     

The econometrics of markets with quantity controls

This paper presents econometric methods for single markets with quantity controls or quotas. A theory of quotas based on disequilibrium/bargaining nations is outlined. Maximum likelihood methods are described for these theories. The methods are applied to the Australian tobacco-leaf market. It is argued that cigarette manufacturers gain slightly more from bargaining proces than tobacco-growers.     

The intensive and the extensive margins: not only an international issue

Empirical evidence shows that quantity (intensive margin) and variety availability (extensive margin) have effects of different magnitude on populations’ welfare. Indeed, the pattern of a market dynamics may cause changes in welfare inequality. Low income consumers benefit more from quantity than high income consumers, who are more interested in enjoying variety. These facts have been usually addressed as consequences of trade liberalization by international trade theory. However, market dynamics are also present within the borders of every country. It is important to understand what forces, unrelated with international trade, affect these dynamics. This paper explores the transmission of different real shocks into market dynamics in a new-Keynesian closed economy. Results show that the source of the shock is crucial to determine the magnitude and direction of the effects on each margin.     

A two-dimensional non-equilibrium dynamic model

This paper develops a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) with Keynesian features (it allows for a disequilibrium between output and demand and it considers a constant marginal propensity to consume), but where production is undertaken under plain neoclassical conditions (a constant returns to scale production function, with the stocks of capital and labor fully employed, is assumed). The model involves only two endogenous/prognostic variables: the stock of physical capital per unit of labor and a measure of market disequilibrium (MMD). The two-dimensional system allows for a careful analysis of local and global dynamics. Points of bifurcation and long-term cyclical motion are identified. The main conclusion is that the disequilibrium hypothesis leads to persistent fluctuations generated by intrinsic deterministic factors. These fluctuations may reflect some of the features frequently encountered in observed business cycles, once the model is conveniently adapted to this purpose.     

Income determination in market disequilibrium: The implications of spillover for the design of monetary policy

This paper specifies and analyzes a generalized disequilibrium macroeconomic model that explicitly includes the concept of spillover in nontatonnement financial and real markets. It is shown that the dynamic quantity and expenditure theories of income determination are special cases of the model which depend upon the degree of spillover from the bond to the commodity market. Simulation experiments designed to produce a vigorous monetary shock to the system clearly show that national product is very sensitive to the degree of spillover, and thus, the design of monetary policy within the context of gradual market clearing should consider the size of spillover.     

A Keynesian model of search and labor market disequilibrium

The paper develops Keynesian employment dynamics in a search model with stochastic vacancy-availability playing the major role. A UV curve is derived from the search dynamics, and in effect represents a demand for searchers to maintain employment levels. The supply of searchers is determined from the real wage, the duration of the search necessary to locate a vacancy, and layoff probabilities. Persistent disequilibrium in the labor market is examined, and it is shown how a lowering of the real wage can increase employment and lower unemployment.     

Destabilizing impacts of price and quantity adjustments to relative supply and demand

The static theories of the firm and household rest their practical validity on an assumption that disequilibrium conditions will rapidly be eliminated through price and quantity adjustments. This paper develops a model of stock management by producers to explore the time paths of production adjustment to disequilibrium. Model results suggest that typical corporate policies for responding to inventory and order backlog levels lead to continuing fluctuations in production and employment around equilibrium values. Moreover, fluctuations are acceptuated when price impacts on output and consumption decisions are included. Following Samuelson's Correspondence Principle, the results imply that equilibrium analyses for models containing equilibrium assumptions) have little explanatory power, especially over a short-run period of several years. Further, proper dynamic analysis requires comprehensive interrelating of stocks and flows, not merely incorporation of lagged adjustments to theoretical equilibrium conditions.