THE IT REVOLUTION ACROSS THE UNITED STATES

In this paper we study the geography of the IT revolution in the U.S. economy. By relating the intensity of IT production and diffusion to labor productivity growth for the United States, we find three main results. First, states with above-average production intensity of IT manufacturing show more growth acceleration than other states. Second, the same applies to states with above-average IT diffusion. Yet, while the result for IT-producing states is strong, the result for IT-using states is somewhat smaller and less robust across specifications. Third, we also reconcile our state-wide pieces of evidence with previous industry and aggregate evidence. Accelerating productivity growth in IT-producing states stems from both IT-producing and IT-using industries in those states and is not a manifestation of the exclusive importance of IT production. Moreover, the less robust evidence for IT-using states is due to lower growth contributions from IT-producing and other industries in these states, not a symptom of a missing effect of IT usage.     

THE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS AND ESTIMATES FOR THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY IN THE PERIOD 1964 TO 19801

Household production as well as other informal economic activities have received scant attention in economic science. In the last decade the view has been taken that there has been a big shift from formal to informal production. In order to examine this trend this article presents estimates for the size of household production for the Federal Republic of Germany which are based on time-budget data collected from 1964 to 1980. To show the sensitivity of the results two different estimating methods the Opportunity Cost Method and the Market Cost Method, are used. Since productivity growth took place not only in the formal economy but also in household production, estimates will be presented which take productivity growth explicitly into account. The article concludes with a comparison of estimates for other countries.     

文化要素与经济增长

狭义地说,文化是世代相传下来的、规则化的"惯例",以及一套价值观念和相应伦理规范的"信仰"。关于文化对经济增长的作用机制,大致可以从三个方面给出初步解释:文化要素影响企业家职业选择和企业管理者选择机制,影响企业层次生产率,进而影响总生产率和经济增长;文化作为知识资产,以其特有的方式进入总生产函数,决定了经济增长率和增长路径;经济和文化的共生演进,将成为服务经济时代的典型化事实,并影响经济增长方式和经济竞争方式。     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标,因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标,对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此,本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验,对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化,模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率;二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率,验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性;三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度,提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

基础设施对中国经济增长的影响及机制研究*——基于扩展的Barro增长模型

基础设施既可以作为特殊的资本存量直接促进经济增长，又可以通过促进投资和劳动力增加（增加生产要素数量）以及提高存量资本和劳动力的边际生产率（提高生产要素效率）间接促进经济增长。本文构建了一个扩展的Barro经济增长模型，并利用中国1992—2016年省级面板数据和中介效应模型对两条机制进行实证检验。结果发现：基础设施对经济增长具有促进作用，但对交通、能源、通信三类基础设施的影响以及在2008年金融危机前后均表现出异质性。直接效应呈动态上升趋势，中介效应则逐渐下降。针对异质性的原因，本文进一步采用非线性模型进行检验。结果表明我国基础设施对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为规模扩张型、数量型或外延型，而不是以质量型和内涵型为主的形式。能源和通信基础设施对经济增长的总效应具有规模效应，交通基础设施的规模效应不显著，但也对经济增长具有持续促进作用。这说明目前我国三类基础设施仍然具有较大投资潜力。其中的关键是要通过基础设施建设提高生产要素效率。     

基础设施对中国经济增长的影响及机制研究*——基于扩展的Barro增长模型

基础设施既可以作为特殊的资本存量直接促进经济增长，又可以通过促进投资和劳动力增加（增加生产要素数量）以及提高存量资本和劳动力的边际生产率（提高生产要素效率）间接促进经济增长。本文构建了一个扩展的Barro经济增长模型，并利用中国1992—2016年省级面板数据和中介效应模型对两条机制进行实证检验。结果发现：基础设施对经济增长具有促进作用，但对交通、能源、通信三类基础设施的影响以及在2008年金融危机前后均表现出异质性。直接效应呈动态上升趋势，中介效应则逐渐下降。针对异质性的原因，本文进一步采用非线性模型进行检验。结果表明我国基础设施对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为规模扩张型、数量型或外延型，而不是以质量型和内涵型为主的形式。能源和通信基础设施对经济增长的总效应具有规模效应，交通基础设施的规模效应不显著，但也对经济增长具有持续促进作用。这说明目前我国三类基础设施仍然具有较大投资潜力。其中的关键是要通过基础设施建设提高生产要素效率。     

THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR LIVESTOCK IN SAHELIAN COUNTRIES

The evaluation of livestock production in the United Nations System of National Accounts implies a measure which is inconsistent with the general principle evaluation of production in this system.
This paper deals with a critical appraisal of the methods used by the SNA and two sahelian countries in livestock accounting.
Finally, estimations of NIGER'S GDP over the period 1983 to 1985 are carried out, using the four livestock production assessments presented. Differences in GDP's evaluations are large, reaching 17 percent in 1984 and 7 percent in 1985 in terms of rate of growth.     

DOES GNP EXAGGERATE GROWTH IN “ACTUAL” OUTPUT? THE CASE OF THE UNITED STATES

Measures of national product can be misleading because there is nonmarket production. There are also distortions due to transactional activities, which are expenditures to support transactions, not actual output consumed. For 1950–89, this study recalculates output for the United States, adjusting for transactional activities and nonmarket production. Due to relatively rapid growth in transactional activities, GNP overstates output growth in the 1950s; because there was slow expansion of transactional activities in the early 1970s, GNP understates actual output. Since 1974, increases in transactional activities and shifts to market production lead GNP to exaggerate improvement of "actual" output per capita.     

THE SUITABILITY OF THE DIVISIA INDEX FOR THE MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMIC AGGREGATES

This paper considers the properties of the Divisia, or chain-link, index, as they relate to the argument that this is the most appropriate index for use in studying the sources of economic growth. The great advantage of the Divisia index is alleged to be its "accuracy", that is, its capacity to combine time series of prices and quantities to give a true reflection of the height of a utility or production function over time. The paper shows that there are circumstances where the confidence in the accuracy of the Divisia index is justified, but that the conditions required are very restrictive and typically do not obtain in the contexts where the Divisia index is used. Misplaced confidence in the Divisia index has led to errors of interpretation that might otherwise have been avoided, and has given rise to a distorted view of the process of economic growth.     

能力—机会框架：理解企业创业和成长的统一视角*

“交易范式”影响下发展出来的主流经济学片面强调激励和契约,无法为理解真实世界的企业创业和成长现象提供有效理论支撑。本文重新构建了一个根植于“生产范式”,尤其是资源—能力理论和演化视角的,并能够适用于理解后发展语境下企业创业和成长现象的统一理论框架——“能力—机会”框架。这个框架包含四个基本命题：第一,当讨论企业创业和成长问题时,本质上都在讨论组织能力和市场机会的问题。第二,能力和机会的来源、类型以及二者系统性的变化过程,共同直接决定了企业的创业选择和成长动力。第三,能力和机会同时具有工业和产品特定性,只能在持续的工业生产和管理过程中内生出来。往往已经存在或有条件创造出什么类型的能力和机会时,才可能出现相应状态的创业和成长活动。第四,后发展语境中的特定组织能力和市场机会,从未因为市场经济制度的存在而自动产生。政府部门和公共研究机构等非市场组织,充当了塑造能力和机会的状态及其变化过程的关键力量。总之,“能力—机会”框架提供了一种显著区别于主流经济学的新研究视角,同时有助于弥合创业研究和企业成长研究长期存在的鸿沟。     

HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION AND NATIONAL PRODUCTION: AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE RECORD

1 By no means is the home based production of housewives the only or even the most important aspect of nonmarket production. The entire question of work vs. leisure, and the distinction between leisure and nonmarket oriented production, are currently under intensive scrutiny. See for instance the work of Nordhaus and Tobin [7, especially appendix section A.3], Gronau [2] and items cited in Gronau. The omission from the national income accounts of work performed at home by males, non-married females, and “working wives” is extremely important. This paper is concerned only with married females because (1) they are the subject of what must be one of the oldest jokes in the subject of social accounting, and (2) the relationship of production by housewives to total production has changed in the past ten years or so, and that deserves some attention even if it is not the most important thing which has been happening with respect to the GNP.
Specifically, we will present estimates of the value of home based nonmarket production by housewives. These estimates will then be used to supplement various national product aggregates in order to calculate more accurate growth rates for the U.S. economy. We find that the value of nonmarket production by married women during the 1960's has averaged approximately thirty percent of the GNP and close to 40 percent of the national income. The inclusion of the nonmarket work of housewives in GNP would reduce the measured rate of growth of real GNP per potential worker by about ten percent, the exact amount depending on how the value of nonmarket work is estimated. Our estimates indicate a reduction in the absolute rate of growth of almost 0.25 percent.     

科技创新能力与区域经济实力差异的实证研究

从新经济增长理论的视角将经济增长、科技创新整合为一个理论分析框架进行实证研究，结果表明：区域经济非均衡增长在很大程度上依赖于科技进步、科技知识生产、交换和运用(消费)情况。凡是科技创新能力较强的省区，大多都是经济实力较强的省区，多是东部省区；而科技创新能力较弱的省区，同时也是经济实力比较弱的省区，多属于西部省区。因此，实施西部大开发战略，其中一个重要方面就是实施西部科技创新战略，提高西部科技创新能力。     

NEW ESTIMATES OF SWEDISH HISTORICAL GDP SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE NINETEENTH CENTURY*

The first Swedish historical national accounts were compiled in the 1930s, and that pioneering work formed the main basis for later estimates until now. In this paper, an attempt to construct new historical accounts for 1800–1980 is presented. First, the methodology is discussed, particularly concerning series in constant prices adapted for analysis of growth and structural changes. In principle Paasche deflators should be used, but for such a long period they are inadequate due to the huge changes in the goods composition of production as well as of consumption and investment. Instead, a division of the whole period into shorter subperiods is made and within these, Paasche deflators are applied. Then the series for the deflation periods can be linked in order to arrive at longer series. Second, some findings of the work (still in progress) are reported. The new series show a slower growth rate in the second half of the nineteenth century than the earlier ones, and Sweden can internationally no longer be seen as the country where this period's economic miracle took place. Instead, concerning rate of growth of GDP per capita as well as its level, Sweden seems to have been a middle-way country compared to other European countries. In the first half of the 20th century, on the other hand, the growth rate was high in an international comparison. The Swedish sectoral changes followed a general pattern with decreasing agricultural and increasing industrial shares. The service share was not unusually high in the nineteenth century. Within this service production a very distinct pattern of structural change is evident. Finally, a plea is made for a regional breakdown of the national GDP data in order to obtain a better understanding of the economic growth and modernization process.     

DEPRECIATION, OBSOLESCENCE AND THE ROLE OF CAPITAL IN GROWTH ACCOUNTING

Maurice Scott has argued that the neoclassical production function and growth accounting are fundamentally flawed as tools for understanding the growth process. If the role of capital were correctly evaluated, then (he argues) the famous 'residual' of growth accounting would disappear. Contrary to these claims, this paper seeks to show that growth accounting gives correct answers to interesting questions, even when all technical progress is embodied in new capital goods and even when depreciation is entirely due to obsolescence.     

LONG-RUN GROWTH PROJECTIONS AND THE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION: A SURVEY OF MODELS USED BY THE U.S. GOVERNMENT

This paper examines the theory and method behind the long-run growth projections of four prominent models used within the U.S. government. The growth models of the Congressional Budget Ofice, the Social Security Administration, the Office of Management and Budget, and the General Accounting Office are all firmly based on the neoclassical framework of an aggregate production function, but several practical dfferences exist. Most notably, the CBO and GAO models endogenize capital accumulation, while the SSA and OMB simply assume that labor productivity growth will continue at historical rates. Although recent endogenous growth theory and the expanding empirical literature on cross-sectional variation emphasize alternative factors, the US. government agencies remain appropriately committed to the traditional, neoclassical framework as a tool for projecting long-run growth.     

对我国经济增长方式转变的新思考

我国经济增长方式长期存在着由粗放型向集约型转变的困扰,表现为经济增长过度依赖于投入的增加,生产技术水平偏低,劳动者素质结构改善缓慢,经济比例关系没有理顺,产业结构不合理现象突出等。转变增长方式的关键在于增强国内自主创新能力,调整和优化产业结构,以科技进步推动经济增长由低质低效向高质高效的转化,以产业结构的调整和优化保障增长目标的实现。     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OUTPUT VARIABILITY AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM POST WAR UK DATA

The paper investigates the relationship between output variability and economic growth using a GARCH-M model with industrial production in post-war Great Britain. The data reveals a positive relationship between variability and growth rates.     

CONCEPTUAL INCONGRUITY IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

This paper is presented as a general contribution to discussions underway with respect to the revision of the SNA. The author argues that underlying premises in the current (1968) version of the SNA tend to favour quantitative aspects of production and that the treatment of certain financial items such as interest and valuation of inventory change have been compromised in regard to their effects on production.
The need for alternative approaches to these components in the subaccounts of the SNA is emphasized, the rationale involved is explained and modifications to some of the subaccounts are proposed. The alternative approaches affect the boundaries of production and it is argued that the new boundaries would provide a more realistic representation of current values of gross domestic product. It is also noted that the modified production accounts are more compatible with the balance sheet subaccounts.
The author shows that production subaccounts on input-output and productivity are based on the need for quantitative measures in analysing growth in the volume of goods and services produced and of productivity to determine efficiency of factor utilization. It is argued that the existing conceptual structure of these two subaccounts meet these needs and should be retained in their present form.     

新科技革命对我国经济体制改革的新要求

新科技革命是技术创新成果积累和制度变革相互作用的产物。新科技革命带来的社会生产力飞跃性发展,必然对生产关系和上层建筑产生深刻影响,对我国经济体制改革提出新的历史要求。我国迎接新科技革命的挑战,必须深化改革,为先进生产力快速成长创造良好的制度条件。     

UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD WOOL MARKET: TRADE,PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWERS’ INCOMES*

Applying recent estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth on Australian sheep farms, we analyse the long‐run effects of TFP growth on the world wool market using a detailed model of the world wool market that treats raw wool, wool textiles and wool garments as heterogeneous commodities. The model divides the world wool market into nine regions and eight major industrial sectors capturing the extreme nature of the multistage production system through which wool passes. We find that regional sheep producer's welfare responds by between ‐0.9 per cent and 0.7 per cent assuming conservative TFP growth over the period 1995/96–2003/04. Sensitivity analysis shows the welfare effects to be robust with respect to all model parameters, but sensitive to the size of the TFP growth and the degree of TFP spill‐over. Our realistic representation of the multistage nature of the wool production system shows that wool inputs steadily decline in importance in moving from early‐ to late‐stage processing. This production structure indicates that the productivity of sheep farmers has little effect on the prices of and demand for wool garments. In contrast, trade in wool inputs is very responsive to the productivity of sheep farmers.