Banks’ earnings: Empirical evidence of the influence of economic and financial market factors

The structure of income is a foremost address within research on banks’ performance, especially with regard to effects on the resilience of banks’ earnings. Indeed, given their central position in the economy, banks shall thrive to generate sustainable earnings and control for their potential volatility. Existing studies mostly consider the weight of non‐net interest income (nonNII) as opposed to the traditional NII income source. Such aggregated nonNII is found to increase earnings risk but more granular studies conflict. We propose an original investigation of the influence of economic and financial conditions on various income types, assuming that performance may actually be driven by both the income structure and external conditions. We focus European banks, which have long been allowed to diversify beyond retail banking. Out of a straight panel framework, we question if the influence of external conditions spreads to earnings components other than credit losses and trading income and if it does allow for diversification benefits among components. We find that each component actually evolves owing to its own equation. Furthermore, effects of single variables may cumulate over different components of earnings (e.g. GDP) or provide with diversification benefits. These effects are all the more important since they are not mitigated by operating expenses. Hence, over a regarded period, banks’ performance depends upon their structure of income and upon volatilities and correlations of influential variables. Besides controlling for ex‐ante volatility, our approach shows that a given structure of income is not necessarily more resilient than others but that selected non‐banking income may support a higher stability of Earnings     

Bank selection and share of wallet among SMEs: Apparent differences between Hong Kong and Australia

This paper examines the factors that small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Hong Kong consider when selecting a banking partner, and the extent to which they use different banks (share of wallet). The findings are contrasted with those from another study of Australian business. The results show that firms in both countries view a bank's willingness to accommodate their banking and credit needs as being important. Hong Kong firms appear to give this factor higher priority when making their bank selection, while Australian firms appear to place higher emphasis on long-term relationships. Australian firms appear to have a more stable relationship with their primary bank as compared to the firms in Hong Kong where switching behaviours are found to be common. While ‘guanxi’ is often seen as critical in maintaining a business relationship in the Asian context, this study suggests it has limited impact for SMEs in Hong Kong in increasing share of wallet. The findings offer marketing implications for banks that are operating, or are planning to operate, business banking in both places.     

我国商业银行私人金融业务的风险特征及管理对策

近年来,私人金融业务在商业银行中的战略地位日益重要.但与此同时,作为推动这项业务持续发展的重要保障,私人金融业务的风险管理也必须同步完善.本文认为,相对于公司业务和以储蓄业务为主的传统私人金融业务而言,现代私人金融业务具有其鲜明而迥异的风险特征.而对这些风险特征的忽略,导致了当前我国商业银行的风险管理体系仍然沿用以公司业务为重点的传统模式,风险管理模式的转型滞后于私人金融业务战略地位的转型.为此,作者指出,必须针对私人金融业务的风险特征,重新构建商业银行的风险管理体系,并相应完善商业银行风险管理的外部环境.     

论银行业务外包

银行业务外包是指银行通过契约将原内部工作交由他人完成,是银行应对日益激烈的市场竞争的重要工具,也是银行主动调整战略、实现核心价值的有效手段。随着国际银行外包业务范围扩大化、专业化、全球化的趋势,关于中国银行业务外包的研究越来越引起国内理论界和实务界的关注。本文在对国际国内银行业务外包进行比较分析的基础上,针对我国银行外包业务刚刚起步,业务范围狭隘、外包服务商不成熟、法律监管制度不健全等问题,我们提出了相应的政策建议。     

对商业银行现金调拨、整点业务管理模式的探讨与研究

随着银行市场化进程,原有传统、单一现金调拨、整点业务管理方式,已不适应商业银行业务发展客观要求,应遵循科学性、规范化、现代化的原则,积极研究和建立商业银行现金调拨、整点业务管理模式,构建符合现代银行经营理念、经营方式的业务框架。     

基于六西格玛管理法的我国银行流程再造研究

基于六西格玛管理法的银行流程再造(PRSS),是以银行业务流程为切入点,引入六西格玛管理法的思想、步骤、目标、技术方法来规范、量化银行流程再造,并以其作为理论指导路径和实施框架,从而不断提高顾客满意度与绩效,使银行获得持续的动态竞争优势。它是一项复杂而持久的系统工程,需要对整个银行体系传统的经营理念和经营模式进行全面而深刻的变革。     

美国商业银行开展理财业务的经验及对国内银行的启示

近年来,随着国内经济的快速发展和银行业全面开放的日益临近,国内各大商业银行越来越重视发展理财业务,以期在同业竞争中取得优势。本文从美国商业银行开展理财业务所依托的组织架构、产品和服务、采取的模式以及建立的流程等入手,分析了国内理财业务的现状和前景及工商银行在开展理财业务时面临的主要问题。据此,作者提出以下建议:提高对发展理财业务重要性的认识构建顺畅的前中后台营;销服务体系;加快产品和服务创新,努力发展交叉性金融业务;完善理财业务流程,打造理财品牌;加大科技投入,提高客户服务和风险控制能力;建立核心人才队伍,完善考核和激励机制。     

Shadow Banking,Risk Transfer,and Financial Stability

Shadow banking is the process by which banks raise funds from and transfer risks to entities outside the traditional commercial banking system. Many observers blamed the sudden expansion in 2007 of U.S. sub‐prime mortgage market disruptions into a global financial crisis on a “liquidity run” that originated in the shadow banking system and spread to commercial banks. In response, national and international regulators have called for tighter and new regulations on shadow banking products and participants. Preferring the term “market‐based finance” to the term “shadow banking,” the authors explore the primary financial instruments and participants that comprise the shadow banking system. The authors review the 2007–2009 period and explain how runs on shadow banks resulted in a liquidity crisis that spilled over to commercial banks, but also emphasize that the economic purpose of shadow banking is to enable commercial banks to raise funds from and transfer risks to non‐bank institutions. In that sense, the shadow banking system is a shock absorber for risks that arise within the commercial banking system and are transferred to a more diverse pool of non‐bank capital instead of remaining concentrated among commercial banks. The article also reviews post‐crisis regulatory initiatives aimed at shadow banking and concludes that most such regulations could result in a less stable financial system to the extent that higher regulatory costs on shadow banks like insurance companies and asset managers could discourage them from participating in shadow banking. And the net effect of this regulation, by limiting the amount of market‐based capital available for non‐bank risk transfer, may well be to increase the concentrations of risk in the banking and overall financial system.     

Financial markets development,business cycles,and bank risk in South America

In this paper, we examine whether banking crises or business cycles affect the influence of financial markets development on bank risk in a sample of 37 publicly listed commercial banks in seven South American countries over a 22-year period between 1991 and 2012. Banking crises in this region offer a natural setting in which the impact of financial markets development on bank risk is examined. We find that financial markets development improves banks’ capitalization ratio and reduces their exposure to non-traditional banking activities, suggesting that financial markets development on average reduces bank risk. In addition, banking crises and business cycles appear to moderate the impact of financial markets development on bank risk. In the aftermath of banking crises, banks appear to concentrate more on their core traditional banking activities.     

基于价值链理论的商业银行业务流程优化研究

商业银行业务活动和流程是否协调,是决定其客户价值的重要基础.本文以价值链理论为指导,对我国商业银行的业务活动与业务流程进行归类分析,阐述业务活动与流程之间互相联系、共同影响客户价值的关系,建立了商业银行业务流程的优化模型.业务活动的优化关键是解决商业银行的活动瓶颈、不断对商业银行的弱势增值活动进行优化;业务流程的优化可以通过外包非核心业务、集中资源发展商业银行核心业务来解决.商业银行在业务流程优化过程中要注意以客户价值的提高为核心、差别化设计服务流程、集中资源发展核心业务等战略环节.     

银行价值链模块化视角的专业化银行发展之路

本文试图从银行价值链模块化改革的视角出发,探讨如何构建专业化银行、核心银行和综合化银行共同发展的银行体系。     

Geographic diversification in banking

In the aftermath of the 2007–2009 crisis, banks claiming positive diversification benefits are being met with skepticism. Nevertheless, diversification might be important and sizable for some large internationally active banking groups. We use a universally applicable correlation matrix approach to calculate international diversification effects, in which bank subsidiaries are treated as individual assets of the banking group portfolio. We apply the framework to 49 of the world's largest banking groups with significant foreign business units over the 1992–2009 period. Focusing on the most important risk in banking, credit risk, we find that allowing for geographical diversification could reduce banks’ credit risk by 1.1% on average, with risk reduction ranging from negligible up to 8%.     

代理行业务洗钱风险与反洗钱监控机制分析

银行开展代理行业务可能面临的严重洗钱风险因汇丰洗钱案再次引起全世界瞩目。本文主要从国家风险、客户风险两方面分析了代理行业务面临的洗钱风险,从FATF风险为本方法入手,分析了银行控制代理行业务洗钱风险的反洗钱监控措施。     

Banks’ capital buffer,risk and performance in the Canadian banking system: Impact of business cycles and regulatory changes

Using quarterly financial statements and stock market data from 1982 to 2010 for the six largest Canadian chartered banks, this paper documents positive co-movement between Canadian banks’ capital buffer and business cycles. The adoption of Basel Accords and the balance sheet leverage cap imposed by Canadian banking regulations did not change this cyclical behavior of Canadian bank capital. We find Canadian banks to be well-capitalized and that they hold a larger capital buffer in expansion than in recession, which may explain how they weathered the recent subprime financial crisis so well. This evidence that Canadian banks ride the business and regulatory periods underscores the appropriateness of a both micro- and a macro-prudential “through-the-cycle” approach to capital adequacy as advocated in the proposed Basel III framework to strengthen the resilience of the banking sector.     

Shadow banking shadowed in banks’ balance sheets: Evidence from China’s commercial banks

Using hand‐collected data, we creatively construct an ‘on‐balance‐sheet shadow banking business’ (OBS‐SBB) measure to precisely quantify commercial banks’ shadow banking activity concealed on their balance sheets. We show that OBS‐SBB activities could both increase individual and systemic risks. To further test the underlying mechanisms, we use China’s implementation of Basel III as an exogenous shock and employ the difference‐in‐differences approach. We find that banks demand OBS‐SBB in order to bypass capital requirements, previously less‐capitalised banks significantly increase their OBS‐SBB ex‐post, and greater impact is found among small and medium‐sized banks and during loose monetary policy periods.     

Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach

This study proposes a novel framework which combines marginal probabilities of default estimated from a structural credit risk model with the consistent information multivariate density optimization (CIMDO) methodology and the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) supplemented by a dynamic t-copula. The framework models banks’ default dependence explicitly and captures the time-varying non-linearities and feedback effects typical of financial markets. It measures banking systemic credit risk in the three forms categorized by the European Central Bank: (1) credit risk common to all banks; (2) credit risk in the banking system conditional on distress on a specific bank or combinations of banks; and (3) the buildup of banking system vulnerabilities over time which may unravel disorderly. In addition, the estimates of the common components of the banking sector short-term and conditional forward default measures contain early warning features, and the identification of their drivers is useful for macroprudential policy. Finally, the framework produces robust out-of-sample forecasts of the banking systemic credit risk measures. This paper advances the agenda of making macroprudential policy operational.     

WHY BANKS HAVE A FUTURE: TOWARD A NEW THEORY OF COMMERCIAL BANKING

According to some observers, the commercial bank–an institution that conducts the twin activities of accepting deposits payable on demand and originating loans–has outlived its usefulness and is in a state of terminal decline. The broad statistical evidence for this contention, however, is somewhat mixed. While some studies suggest that the role of banks in the United States is declining, others suggest that banks are simply using new vehicles to offer their services and that their role has not diminished at all. This article takes a different approach to analyzing the future of banks by examining the economic rationale for their past existence and exploring the extent to which this rationale can be expected to hold up in the future. The author begins by explaining why the two core banking activities–taking in deposits payable on demand and originating non-marketable loans–are performed by the same institutions. The explanation turns on the recognition that both activities essentially require the institution to come up with cash on short notice–that is, to provide liquidity. Scale economies in providing liquidity explain why both activities are provided by the same entity. Deregulation and innovation have increased competition in the financial services industry, which has forced banks to concentrate on the essentials of liquidity provision. This is why the outward nature of banks' activities has changed (for example, banks today often sell instead of holding loans, and provide back-up lines for commercial paper instead of originating loans), though not their underlying economic rationale (particularly the credit evaluation and monitoring involved in “relationship” banking). Beneath the surface reality of dramatic changes in financial products and services, the fundamental banking business of liquidity provision is alive and well. Moreover, in the course of performing their traditional activities, banks have acquired competencies that enable them to perform a variety of other financial and nonfinancial activities that deregulation and innovation have opened up to them. As part of their evaluation of these nontraditional activities, bankers must ensure that their organizational structures, controls, and compensation policies are appropriate for the new environment of deregulation and technological change.     

工商银行私人银行业务研究

私人银行业务以财富管理为核心,是个人金融业务的高级形式,也是商业银行资源综合运用能力的体现.该业务正是外资银行进入中国后将重点开展的业务,也将是内外资银行竞争的焦点.面对竞争激烈的私人银行业务市场,工商银行必须在打造中国第一零售银行的基础上,不断增强竞争实力,争抢个人高端客户,在私人银行业务上做大做强.本课题即在私人银行业务研究的基础上,结合目前中国私人银行市场现状及工商银行财富管理业务开展情况,对国内商业银行发展私人银行业务策略进行粗浅探讨,以期提供一些参考与借鉴.     

转型期国有商业银行员工压力的调查与应对策略

本文从对国有商业银行向现代商业银行转型过程中员工的压力问题调查出发,分析了当前员工压力的特点,包括几乎所有的员工都有压力,压力与职务成正比,压力呈现不确定性,释放压力的渠道狭窄。然后,在借鉴香港及国外商业银行对员工压力管理的加压、减压措施和员工帮助方案(EAP)等做法的基础上,提出了转型期国有商业银行员工压力评估和管理架构,制订出《员工压力评估表》和《员工压力管理架构》。最后提出国有商业银行员工压力管理的具体途径:一是高度重视员工压力问题并采取相应的减压和加压措施;二是采取专业手段,科学管理员工压力;三是提升自身调适能力,使员工能够主动适应压力。     

Post‐merger strategy and performance: evidence from the US and European banking industries

The banking industry has one of the most active markets for mergers and acquisitions. However, little is known about the type of operational strategies adopted by banking firms in the years following a deal. For a sample of bidding banks in the USA and Europe, this study compares the design and performance implications of different post‐merger strategies in both geographical regions. Using accounting data, we show that European banks pursue a cost‐cutting strategy by increasing efficiency levels vis‐à‐vis non‐merging banks and by cutting back on both labour costs and lending activities. US banks, on the other hand, raise both interest and non‐interest income in the post‐merger period.