中国财政分权与地方基础设施供给的实证分析

在我国,自上而下的政绩考核机制激励着地方追求短期经济增长,导致其在基础设施投资上拥有很高的热情。文章实证分析了该结论,并用模型论证经济增长、城市化和财政分权等因素是导致地方基本建设支出增长的主要原因。     

地方政府债务现状与风险防范对策研究

在当前的新形势之下,地方政府为了能够促进区域内的经济增长与基础设施建设,不惜大量举债,也就导致当前我国地方政府在债务风险方面呈现出全面增长趋势,而这一风险也给地方政府的债务管理工作带来了极大挑战。基于此,文章将针对地方政府债务的由来及风险控制现状进行分析,并提出针对性的地方政府债务风险防范对策,以期在稳定区域经济良好发展的同时,提高地方政府管理工作实效。     

中国经济增长40年的动力——地方政府行为的视角

改革开放40年来，中国经济获得了堪称奇迹的高速增长。现有研究大多侧重于揭示中国经济高速增长的经验，却忽视了伴随高速增长的频繁波动现象。一个完备的理论解释应该既能解释中国经济的高速增长，也能回答为什么经济波动频仍的问题。从这个角度看，基于地方政府行为的解释无疑更加深入。本文首先梳理众多解释中国经济高速增长的观点，指出地方政府竞争理论的成功之处。然后，从地方政府行为的视角出发，分析过去几十年中国经济的波动，发现根源于地方政府的“理性预期”和“学习效应”，地方政府的行为是导致中央政府宏观微调常常失效的关键。最后，本文从矫正地方政府行为的角度，提出适应新环境、构筑新动力以及拓展新空间是推动中国经济走向高质量发展的必然路径。     

地方金融与研发创新系统助推区域经济高质量发展的研究——以江苏省C市为例

通过对地方金融与研发创新、经济增长的互动影响关系进行分析,运用协同理论构建地方金融、研发创新与经济增长的三个子系统协同关系模型。以江苏省C市2010-2018年数据为例,分析C市地方金融、研发创新与地方经济增长协同发展的情况。结果表明,C市地方金融、研发创新与经济增长之间基本趋向良性循环,且协同度在逐年提升。但就单个子系统而言,地方金融子系统没有研发创新与地方经济增长有序度高,一定程度上地方金融发展速度不够影响企业研发创新和地方经济发展。     

经济增长目标压力与城市绿色发展

以中国2003-2017年286个地级及以上城市政府工作报告中的经济增长目标数据为基础,对当年经济增长目标与过去实际经济增长均值之差进行归一化,构造经济增长目标压力指数,分析其对城市绿色发展水平的影响及其传导机制.研究表明,经济增长目标压力指数与绿色发展水平之间存在倒U型关系,过高的经济增长目标压力导致城市绿色发展水平下降,其传导机制在于:过高的经济增长目标压力导致地方财政支出、实际利用外资、资本存量、就业人数等增加,工业增加值占GDP比重和人均地区生产总值下降,污染产业产值占工业总产值比例上升、环境治理水平下降,进而抑制了城市绿色发展水平的提升.选择适度的经济增长目标有利于城市绿色发展.     

新型城镇化背景下土地财政模式的有效性与合理性探讨

地方政府在中国创造经济增长奇迹的过程中扮演了重要的角色,而土地财政模式则为地方政府实现竞争优势和发展提供了重要工具和手段。在紧扣社会经济变迁的宏观背景下,通过"企业化"的视角全面地解释地方政府的角色和行为,并从更长的时间维度和内涵体系,分析土地财政模式的原理和机制,探讨其有效性与合理性。研究认为,土地财政模式具有一定的经济有效性,促进了经济增长和城镇化进程,但地方政府过快的土地贴现,导致其有效性与合理性出现了分离,难以保障社会经济的可持续发展。若是超前的土地城镇化不能带来规模收益递增,且地方政府财政收支结构和筹资方式不改变,则城镇化的发展将不可持续。在新型城镇化背景下,需要进一步完善土地财政模式,使其继续发挥制度优势。     

转型发展中的制度变迁主体类型及其结构性耦合机理分析——中国区域发展水平差距之“谜”的经济学解读

学者们从财政分权、地方政府的激励和竞争角度很好地解释了中国向市场化过渡过程中经济保持的持续、高速增长。但是中国经济高速增长的另一特征是随着改革开放和财政分权,地区间差距逐渐扩大。考察中央政府、地方政府、区域微观主体三方在我国制度变迁中的目标追求、约束条件以及不同作为,结论为:由于三类主体的不同目标和偏好组合构成了区域的不同发展路径,并因此导致了中国区域经济发展差距的扩大。     

产业结构变迁、地方政府投资对经济增长的影响分析

后危机时代,我国经济增长速度出现了明显的下滑,调结构和加大投资成为保增长的主题。本文依据2000年至2010年中国31个省、市、自治区的面板数据分析地方政府投资行为、产业结构升级对经济增长的影响而得出结论:地方政府投资和产业结构升级均对经济增长有明显的促进作用,地方政府投资除了能直接利好经济增长外,研究还发现其对第三产业的发展即产业结构升级也有促进作用,表明地方政府投资在产业结构框架内依然对经济增长有正面影响。     

土地财政、房地产与经济增长

"土地财政"作为一个中国特色的财政现象,近年来一直被社会内外广泛关注。土地财政对于经济增长的影响利弊兼有,一方面它促进了房地产相关行业的繁荣,另一方面却导致了工业、制造业等实体经济领域的衰弱。本文认为土地财政确实导致了经济增长的下滑,因此,从长远之计出发,地方政府需要尽快削弱对土地财政的成瘾和依赖。     

地方财政支出对区域经济增长收敛性的影响分析

地区经济差距问题是我国目前所面临的重要问题,研究发现从长期趋势和整体上来看,我国各省之间经济增长不存在绝对收敛的特征。在中国省际区域间经济增长的条件收敛中,地方财政支出作为控制变量并没有促进经济增长的收敛,加速了区域经济增长的发散。本文在此基础上继续采用β-收敛法来测算地方财政支出的具体支出项目对我国区域经济增长收敛性的影响。     

THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON MUNICIPAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EMPIRICAL RESULTS FROM KENYA

This paper considers the role of public infrastructure in municipal economic development in Kenya. The primary objectives of the examination are to estimate the impact of roads and water infrastructure on municipal incomes, to ascertain the extent to which differences in institutional authority over water service delivery affect the quantity or quality of infrastructure, and to determine whether the presumed simultaneity between infrastructure and incomes matters for purposes of estimating the effect of the former on the latter. The analysis provides evidence to suggest that the impact of public infrastructure in the roads and water sectors on municipal economic development is significant. Also, the examination implies that local governments, when given authority over water services, do not appear to provide a larger quantity of water infrastructure than does the central government and/or its parastatal. On the other hand, and perhaps more significantly, the paper provides some initial evidence that the public water infrastructure services provided by local authorities are more accessible and reliable than those provided by central institutions. Finally, the results of the paper support the conclusion that possible simultaneity between public infrastructure and incomes does not seem to matter for estimating the quantitative impact of infrastructure on economic development.     

经济发展对城市基建和外商投资的创新门槛效应研究

创新是引领城市经济高质量发展的核心引擎之一,基于2003—2018年间中国271个地级及以上城市的面板数据,以经济发展程度为门槛变量着重考察基础设施建设和外商投资对城市创新活动的非线性影响机制以及城市间的空间溢出效应。研究结果表明,基础设施建设和外商投资对城市创新都具有经济发展的双门槛效应,当经济发展程度达到第一个门槛值时,才会显著促使城市创新产出的提升。当经济发展程度跨越第二个门槛值时,会进一步增加城市的创新产。城市间的创新活动具有明显的空间依赖性,对于经济发展程度差距较大的城市之间,基础设施建设显著增强创新溢出效应。     

MAKING TRULY COMPETITIVE CITIES – ON THE APPROPRIATE ROLE FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT

Much economic and urban research lends increasing support to the view that local government authorities could actually improve their 'competitiveness' by not being required to engage in the 'business' of local economic development and rather by concentrating on their 'core' activities such as maintaining sound, basic infrastructure within their jurisdiction.     

On the effects of capital mobility on local infrastructure policy and rent-seeking

This paper deals with the influence of capital mobility on local infrastructure policy and on rent-seeking activities of local interest groups. It employs a model where households differ with respect to their endowments with the immobile factor land. Local governments decide about the level of productive infrastructure in their jurisdiction. According to their land endowments, different households benefit to a different degree from infrastructure. This redistribution effect of local infrastructure gives households an incentive for rent-seeking. As this paper shows, capital mobility and fiscal competition between local governments have an influence on the equilibrium level of rent-seeking. Rent-seeking expenditures increase with the introduction of capital mobility in a broad class of cases.     

Infrastructure and Performance of the Italian Economic System

This paper aims to analyze the consequences for the Italian economy of the recently started process of modernization and extension of the country's infrastructure. The planned measures are expected to increase the competitiveness of Italian businesses, and to improve the quality of life. In the short term, investments in infrastructure will increase the construction sector's production and, consequently, activate income and employment multipliers. The Italian economic system being highly differentiated from a territorial viewpoint, the impact of new investments on its economic system has been analyzed by means of a biregional model that accounts for the peculiar productive structure of the 20 Italian regions.     

Inter-metropolitan regional migration galvanized by high-speed rail: A simulation analysis of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line in Japan

The development of transportation infrastructure impacts migration, production, and other economic activities along with it. In this study, we conducted a multiregional computable general equilibrium simulation analysis to assess the effects that the proposed 2027 high-speed railway, the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan, will have on population migration. The 47 prefectures ordained by the Japanese administrative unit were considered, and the simulation potential workforce population was taken as 110 million. The population is concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area. As per our simulation, once the proposed high-speed railway opens, “travel costs” (comprising time and the monetary costs of traveling) will decrease. This situation will stimulate economic activities and lead people to migrate to the prefectures where the economic environment improves. The results show that this development will ease extreme population concentration while simultaneously increasing employment and production values. However, additional analysis indicates that further development of the Linear Shinkansen to strengthen the current high-speed rail on the route to Tokaido will increase population concentration.     

新农村建设视角下的陕西小城镇发展研究

陕西小城镇因存在规划缺乏科学性,空间分布缺乏合理性、基础设施落后、环境竞争力不强等问题。为此,应因地制宜,科学规划,把住小城镇建设方向;打造特色,培育产业,增添小城镇经济活力;加快建设,完善功能,优化小城镇发展;拓宽建设资金渠道,加大投入力度;坚持环保、生态和可持续发展原则,走可持续发展的道路,从而加快陕西小城镇及新农村建设步伐。     

The Effect of Incentive regulation on Infrastructure Modernization: Local Exchange Companies' Deployment of Digital Technology

This study examines the investment patterns of all large local exchange telephone companies in the United States over time. It identifies how different regulatoy environments have influenced the recent historical pattern of investment in modern infrastructure equipment. It focuses exclusively on the postdivestiture experience of local telephone exchange companies (LECs). It examines the growth of fiber-optic deployment and of complementary equipment associated with the modernization of today's information infrastructure. The study estimates the influence of different regulatory structures on infrastructure deployment by LECs. The study is unique in that if relates individual LEC investment patterns to LEC-specific regulatory, demographic, and economic characteristics. Thus, it isolates the contribution of state regulatory policies from that of other demographic and economic factors in the determination of infrastructure deployment at the state LEC rather than at the corporate level. Its main findings are as follows: First, price regulation (and, in particular, price caps) is a more potent regulatory mechanism than the standard earnings sharing scheme. Second, when associated with an earnings sharing scheme, price regulation is less effective in triggering infrastructure deployment than when it is implemented by itself. These results raise questions about the effectiveness of a popular regulatory instrument-earnings sharing schemes-and highlight the effectiveness of generic price-cap regulation. These results have implications for the design of regulatory policy at both the state and federal levels. In particular, given the importance currently being placed on the development of the information superhighway, regulatory emphasis should be focused more on price regulation than on regulating profits.     

整合营销理论在无锡物流企业品牌建设中的应用

无锡物流业发展具备较好的基础条件和广阔的市场空间,但没有真正铸造自己的品牌。因此,需要用整合营销理论指导物流企业服务品牌建设,通过客户忠诚度的维护和提高、实行一站式服务、构筑营销战略联盟等方法,塑造无锡物流企业自身的品牌形象,增强无锡物流企业的市场竞争力。