Current scientific and practical problems in restricting the growth of large cities in the USSR

Current problems involved in restricting the growth of large cities in the USSR are examined using the example of Moscow and its suburban areas. Government policies concerning urbanization and the distribution of the labor force throughout the country are discussed. The use of various types of incentives to regulate the economy and the labor force is suggested.     

On microfoundations of the city

This paper considers the spatial structure of a city subject to final demand and vertical linkages. Individuals consume differentiated goods (or services) and firms purchase differentiated inputs (or services) in product (or service) markets where firms compete under monopolistic competition. Workers rent their residential lots in an urban land market and contribute to the production of differentiated goods and inputs. We show that firms and workers co-agglomerate and endogenously form a city. We characterize and discuss the spatial distribution of firms and consumers in such cities on one- and two-dimensional spaces. We show that final demand and vertical linkages raise the urban density and reduce the city spread.     

中国城市人口可比增长速度的空间差异(1949──1995)

本文川计算城市人口可比增长速度的方法．分三个阶段检验了我国城市人口增长速度的总体状况和空间差异.认为城市人口增长速度呈明显的马鞍形,大城市增长速度波动最大,与决策者的认识与愿望不一致。通过三个阶段快速增长城市和缓慢增长城市分布的分析、认为东中西之间和南北之间的差异都很明显。我国城市发展的重点,第一阶段在西部．第二阶段在中部、第三阶段在东部。南方城市的增长速度在第一阶段远远落后于北方。第二阶段差距有所缩小．第三阶段南方城市接近或超过了北方城市。东部快于中西部．南方快于北方的趋势仍在继续。城市人口增长速度空间差异的变化与我国宏观经济发展方针的转变相一致。     

The crisis of urbanization in Asia: finding alternatives to megalopolitan growth

The rapid expansion of large Asian cities generates serious social, economic, and physical problems, and has thereby forced these areas to create alternative expansion plans, such as the idea of building up secondary cities and towns. The result of the rapid expansion of large cities, combined with poor urban management, accentuates the mass poverty in many Asian cities. This large urban population is expected to double or triple in size between 1970 and 2000. Because substantial resources are required to manage these megalopolitan areas, it is reasonable to deduce that millions of these city dwellers will be living in absolute poverty by 2000. It is the prospect of continued rapid growth over the next 2 decades that presents the most serious problem for Asian countries. Most metropolises cannot provide enough jobs for the current work force. In addition, public facilities, housing, transportation, and health services are examples of other problems threatened by a heavy concentration of people. Attempts to control this growth have been unsuccessful, mainly due to the 1950s and 1960s emphasis on productive investment, which left rural regions underdeveloped and poor. Secondary cities and regional centers in Asia perform important functions in promoting widespread economic and social development: 1) they stimulate rural economies and therefore establish a pattern of step-wise migration, and 2) they absorb population and therefore, relieve some of the pressure put on the largest metropolitan areas. Studies of secondary cities and their attempts at controlling growth of large metropolitan centers suggest broad guidelines for strategies. Some of these are: 1) the existence of large metropolises has little effect on the growth of primate cities; 2) few controls on growth of large areas are likely to be effective unless there are viable alternative locations at which high threshold economic activities can operate; 3) secondary cities must be closely related to the agricultural economies of their rural hinterlands; and 4) attention must be given to improving transportation and other communication between large metropolitan centers, secondary cities, and smaller cities and towns. The continued concentration of people and economic activities in vast megalopolitan areas will continue to generate serious economic and social problems that may help stimulate the evolution of some of these strategies.     

资源型城市转型期人口发展问题研究——以甘肃省嘉峪关市为例

资源型城市转型是世界普遍性问题,当资源型城市发展成综合性工业城市后,人口结构最终呈现老年型结构,三产从业人员知识和就业结构单一,城市下岗失业人员和隐性失业人口增加。同时,第二产从业人员比重扩大、性别比失调,最终产生"婚姻拥挤"现象。资源型城市转型期必须考虑协调城市资源与人口、环境、经济社会等各因素。     

Growth,economic structure,and residential distribution of a small city

This article presents a growth model of a small open city with economic structure and geography. The city which is located along a line segment has three, industrial, services and housing, sectors. The spatial growth model of a small city synthesizes the main ideas in some important models in the neoclassical growth theory, urban economics, and the literature of economic growth of small open economies. We show that the dynamic system has a unique equilibrium. We also simulate the motion of the urban economy over time and space. The unique feature of our approach is to treat production activities, economic structure, residential distribution, capital accumulation, and consumption on the basis of microeconomic mechanism as an integrated whole. Our simulation provides some important insights into the processes of the urban economic growth. For instance, under certain conditions, when the industrial sector’s productivity is increased, the wage rate, price of services, capital intensities of the services and industrial sectors, and per-worker output levels of the two sectors are increased. The total labor supply, the capital stocks employed by the three sectors and the labor forces by the service and industrial sectors are all increased. The shares of the three sectors are not affected by the technological change in the long term, even though the shares are initially affected. The per capita consumption level of the industrial goods rises and the consumption level of services falls. The land and housing rents are increased and the consumption of housing per household falls. Moreover, the current account balance tends to be more in surplus and the growth rate is increased.     

地区经济差距与人口流动:基于七国大都市区人口分布的比较研究

大都市区是一国人口的吸纳池。我国东部大都市区对人口的吸纳作用小,各大都市区的郊区和所辖县,以及多数大都市区的市区尚有很大的潜力和空间吸纳外来人口。鼓励包括中西部在内的农村剩余劳动力向东部大都市市区及郊区迁移,是一条减少地区和城乡经济差距,实现农村劳动力转移的有效途径。     

The growth of urbanization in Ethiopia, 1966-1984

"This paper studies the growth and dynamics of urbanization in Ethiopia during the period 1966-1984. Despite its very low level of urbanization (10.6%), Ethiopia experienced rapid urban population growth of 4.8% per annum over the period. The urban growth was more rapid at the beginning (1966-70 = 6.6%) then slowed down to 4.23% in 1970-1984. There is highly uneven regional distribution of urbanization with the core urban region accommodating close to half the urban population; within regions, the majority of the urban population is concentrated in one or very few large urban areas." Data are from the preliminary results of the 1984 census, the two rounds of urban National Sample Surveys, and the Manpower and Housing Survey.     

中国城市可持续发展态势分类评价

当前，中国城镇化正高速推进，城市已成为推动可持续发展的关键领域。以城市三支柱协调发展为理论基础，分别采用城市5年人口年均动态增长率、空气PM2.5浓度年达标水平、5年地区GDP年均动态增长率3项指标，作为城市社会进步、环境保护、经济增长3大维度表征，构建“8类4级”城市分类评价方案，其中4级是指城市发展呈现强、中、弱、欠可持续发展的不同特征。对中国2013年所有数据可得的地级及以上城市开展实证研究，获取基于发展态势的城市分类结果。结果显示，90%以上城市处于弱可持续发展态势，环境污染是中国城市发展面临的关键性难题。我国东北地区城市人口流失和财富增长后劲不足，可持续发展挑战巨大。     

Urbanization in a developing country: city size and population composition

Reasons for the high correlation between city size and educational attainment in developing countries are explored. "Two explanations are examined. First, the types of goods produced in larger cities require relatively high skill labor inputs. Second, public and perhaps private services demanded by higher skill people are only offered in larger cities. The paper econometrically tests these hypotheses for Brazil, estimating the elasticities of substitution (or typically complementarity) between high and low skill labor and the 'bright lights' effect for high versus low skill labor."     

垄断竞争、中间产品与城市规模

从分工经济与城市规模之间关系的角度,运用Dixit-Stiglitz模型框架下经济活动的规模收益递增原理,在城市内部最终产品生产企业利润最大化的条件下,系统讨论了投入的中间产品种类数与城市人口规模之间的关系、中间产品之间的替代性对城市均衡人口规模的反馈作用,以及城市内部中间产品专业化水平和互补经济程度之间的关系。在此基础上,利用广东省城市增长的部分数据进行了实证分析。认为:经济活动的集聚形成了城市;在城市体积增长和城市系统随产业的专业化与多样化发展而演进的过程中,城市规模经济的实现除了依赖生产要素流动外,最终产品生产企业对中间产品投入的需求也具有不可忽视的作用。     

试论煤炭城市人口自然结构的演化特征－以淮南、淮北市为例

以淮南,淮北两个典型煤炭城市为案例,对煤炭城市的人口增长机制进行了研究,采用不同年份的人口普查资料对其人口的自然结构及其演化特征进行了分析,在此基础上初步概括了煤炭城市人口自然结构演化的基本特征。     

聚集经济视角下城市发展问题研究

我国目前正处于城市化的加速时期,城市发展面临着严峻的挑战.中国城市普遍存在着显著的聚集经济效应,本文从城市聚集经济的角度出发,首先分析了聚集经济效应的交互作用,由于城市化经济与地方化经济的交互作用导致了城市化过程.其次,对城市化运行的根本动力进行了分析,分别从产业推动力、农业剩余劳动力转移、制度与政策三个层面进行详尽的研究.在此基础上,提出我国城市化过程中存在的主要问题,体现在就业问题、农民利益保障问题、社会公共服务问题、公共安全管理问题以及资源环境问题五个方面,最后,针对城市化过程中存在的这些问题,并结合我国的实际情况,对我国未来城市发展提出了几点建设性意见,并希望能为今后城市的发展提供指导.     

转型期中等城市新城市贫困问题实证研究--以安徽省芜湖市为例

转型期出现的新城市贫困问题已经对我国城市的外向发展和内向发展产生了严重影响，而以传统产业和中小企业为主的中等城市是我国新城市贫困的高发地区。文章以安徽省芜湖市为例，利用普查和社会调查等第一手资料，分析了芜湖市新城市贫困的人口、社会和空间特征。发现新城市贫困人口具有人口同期群效应和结构性特征，空间分布出现贫困人口区位化趋势。探讨了新城市贫困的形成原因。认为体制转轨和制度创新不足是我国新城市贫困人口产生的主要原因，而转型期城市发展与管理存在的诸多问题以及贫困人口自身因素也导致了新城市贫困人口的产生。提出解决新城市贫困问题必须依靠深化社会和经济体制改革，在城市贫困的社会救助、扩大就业、规范劳动力市场、加强社区建设等多方面进行制度创新。     

地理与服务业-内需是否会使城市体系分散化?

本文利用中国城市面板数据,考察了到大港口和区域性核心大城市的距离对第三产业劳动生产率的影响。我们发现,第三产业劳动生产率和到大港口的距离之间呈现出三次型的"∽"曲线关系,随着离大港口越来越远,第三产业劳动生产率下降、上升再下降。相比之下,第二产业劳动生产率和到大港口的距离之间也存在三次曲线关系,但是没有第二波峰,说明第二产业的集聚力比第三产业相对更强,但离散力相对更弱。同时,我们也发现,区域性的大城市对第三产业劳动生产率的影响比对第二产业的影响更加明显。本文的含义是,向沿海和大城市周边的空间集聚对于服务业发展非常重要,服务业作为内需增长的源泉并不会使城市体系分散化。     

房价对城市全要素生产率的影响机制研究——基于Tobit模型实证分析

基于2008—2016年全国35个大中型城市的面板数据,利用Tobit模型和投入导向型的数据包络分析(DEA)方法探究城市房屋销售价格对城市全要素生产率的影响。研究发现：在整体维度城市房价与城市生产率呈现先增加后减少的倒U型曲线,且城市的房价水平超过了“房住不炒”的最高临界值,房价上升的抑制效应显著。房价对于不同人口规模城市的生产率影响具有异质性,在人口规模达到特大城市时,房价与城市生产率呈现倒U型特征,人口规模达到超大城市后,房价与城市生产率倒U型特征消失。不同类型城市房价与城市生产率之间的倒U型关系和城市的异质性特征表明,我国大中型城市应进行房价的“一城一策”精细化调节,“房住不炒”的政策定位具有坚实理论依据和现实必然。     

The dynamics of city formation

This paper examines city formation in a country whose urban population is growing steadily over time, with new cities required to accommodate this growth. In contrast to most of the literature there is immobility of housing and urban infrastructure, and investment in these assets is taken on the basis of forward-looking behavior. In the presence of these fixed assets cities form sequentially, without the population swings in existing cities that arise in current models, but with swings in house rents. Equilibrium city size, absent government, may be larger or smaller than is efficient, depending on how urban externalities vary with population. Efficient formation of cities with internalization of externalities involves local government intervention and borrowing to finance development. The paper explores the institutions required for successful local government intervention.     

江苏省城市化进程与现状特征研究

本文从城市化的概念、表现和度量指标出发,分析了现行城镇人口统计中存在的问题,指出城镇人口应包括的人口范围。并把江苏城市化发展过程分为六个阶段,对发展的现状特征进行了分析研究。     

On the Market Failure in a Dixit-Stiglitz Setup with Two Trading Cities

This study discusses the reasons for market failure and its bias in an economy with two cities and two final goods: tradeable differentiated products and non‐tradeable housing. It is shown that inside the city, as in Dixit and Stiglitz (1977) , diversity (number of firms) is too small. With regard to the population partition between the cities, the paper distinguishes between a marginal and a global market bias against agglomeration or dispersion (in a second‐best context). The reasons for a marginal bias are twofold: a gap between marginal and average labor productivity and the (excessive) labor employed in housing production which vary between the large and the small cities. The source of the global bias is multiple stable equilibria. The marginal bias may be in an opposite direction to the global bias, such that more agglomeration may be marginally desirable, whereas full dispersion is (second‐best) optimal. Simulations demonstrate that the same market structure and potential source of market failure may imply bias in different directions, depending on the aggregate population size.     

中国城市建成区扩张的空间格局及效率分析(1990—2009)

文章使用1990—2009年中国260个地级及地级以上的城市数据,采用位序—规模法则、K值、GIS等方法,分析了中国城市扩张的空间格局及演变特点,并引入K’衡量城市空间扩张的效率。主要结论有:①城市扩张呈现明显的阶段性特点,主因是国家城市化战略的调整。2000年后城市发展趋向不均衡,城市体系发生动荡变化。这种变化应该高度重视。②城市空间规模变大的趋势更加显著,城市类型向更高级别推进,城市区域空间分布极不均衡,城市所在地区差异导致城市扩张进程分化,城市地位也随之变化。③各地区城市扩张速度有显著差异,省级中心城市的扩张前慢后快,城市扩张形成区域性集团。城市扩张与城市人口增长不协调,且有拉大趋势,整体上城市空间扩张应当放缓。④不同阶段,不同类型、不同地区城市扩张的效率有很大差异,扩张效率的高低提示各城市在城市扩张上应选择适宜的发展道路,并制定相应的政策和措施。