我国居民间接能源消费碳排放的测算及分解分析

利用消费者生活方式方法(CLA),测算1993~2007年我国居民间接能源消费碳排放量,以及城镇和农村居民人均碳排放量的变化趋势。以1993年为基年,对我国居民间接能源消费碳排放量的变化进行分解分析。结果表明:(1)居民间接能源消费碳排放量整体呈上升趋势,城镇和农村居民人均碳排放量也逐年增加,其中2007年城镇居民是农村居民人均碳排放量的三倍。(2)研究期间,人均消费水平城镇化率、居民消费结构和人口规模是拉动居民间接能源消费碳排放量增加的主要因素,而能源消费强度和碳排放强度是抑制碳排放量增加的主要因素。其中2003~2007年碳排放强度起到正效应;居民消费结构表现为负效应,对减少碳排放起到一定作用。     

浙江省能源消费碳排放动态特征及影响因素研究

采用IPCC推荐的碳排放计算公式,测算了2000年到2011年浙江省能源消费碳排放量,分析了人均碳排放量和碳排放强度的动态特征,并利用LMDI分析其排放变化的影响因素。研究期间,浙江省人均能源消费碳排放量不断上升,碳排放强度呈现下降的趋势,浙江省碳排放处于碳排放强度倒U型曲线高峰到人均碳排放量倒U型曲线高峰阶段的过渡期。经济发展对人均碳排放量增长起到拉动作用,产业结构、能耗强度、能源结构、碳排放系数变化起到抑制作用。产业结构、能耗强度和单位能源消耗碳排放强度变化均对碳排放强度下降产生正向驱动作用。     

西北五省区交通碳排放现状及影响因素研究

论文利用1995—2016年西北五省区交通能源消耗数据,对其碳排放量进行了测算,从碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、能源碳排放结构以及能源强度分析了五省区交通碳排放的现状。基于改进的STIRPAT模型,利用岭回归,探讨了客货运周转量、人均GDP、能源强度、城镇化率、私家车保有量对五省区交通碳排放的影响。结果表明:五省区交通碳排放量与人均碳排放量总体呈波动上升趋势,2000年后,上升趋势更显著;石油使用始终是西北地区交通碳排放的主要来源;能源强度从大到小为:宁夏、青海、甘肃、陕西、新疆;岭回归分析显示,除甘肃省外,西北地区影响因素贡献度均为:能源强度人均GDP城镇化率私家车保有量客货运周转量,而对甘肃交通碳排放贡献度最大的则是人均GDP。     

广东省终端能源消费碳排放增长的驱动因素

将居民能源消费的二氧化碳排放纳入研究范围,采用LMDI分解法对2000—2011年广东省终端能源消费碳排放增长的驱动因素进行分析。结果显示:在影响碳排放增长的各种因素中,经济规模、人口规模和收入对碳排放增加整体上表现为正效应;产业结构、生产部门能源强度、生产部门能源结构和能源碳排放因子整体表现为负效应;生活部门的能源强度和能源结构的效应不确定;总体上正向驱动效应超过负向驱动效应,致使广东省的碳排放量呈不断上升态势。     

京津冀能源消费、碳排放与经济增长

运用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》中的碳排放核算方法[1],测算2000—2011年京津冀二氧化碳排放量、排放强度、人均排放量和单位面积排放量,从变动趋势、消费结构、相关性和空间分布四个角度分析京津冀的能源消费、碳排放与经济增长。结果表明:京津冀能源消费量和碳排放量在12年间均呈增长趋势;碳排放强度均呈下降趋势;津冀的高排放主要是由以煤炭消费为主的能源结构和以高耗能工业为主的产业结构引起的。碳排放量与能源消费量和经济增长密切相关。在京津冀协同发展背景下,应大力调整产业结构,优化能源结构,建立碳汇合作机制。     

中部六省能源消费碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素

采用2005—2016年中部六省能源消费碳排放面板数据,对其能源消费碳排放时空演变特征及其收敛性进行分析,在此基础上运用LMDI分解方法,探索产出规模、能源强度、产业结构、人口规模及能源结构等因素对中部六省能源消费碳排放的影响,并分析各影响因素的空间特征。结果表明:(1)各省能源消费碳排放均存在收敛,且收敛于各自的稳态水平,各省之间的差异短时间内不会消失;(2)除能源结构变化对中部六省碳排放表现为负效应之外,其余五个因素对其碳排放均表现为正效应,各效应按累积贡献率绝对值大小依次是:产出规模效应、能源强度效应、产业结构效应、人口规模效应和能源结构效应;(3)各因素对中部六省能源碳排放影响均存在明显的空间差异,其中产出规模扩大对湖南能源碳排放拉动作用最大,能源强度下降对湖南能源碳排放的抑制作用最大,产业结构变化仅对山西能源碳排放起到抑制作用,人口规模变化仅对安徽省能源碳排放起到抑制作用,能源结构变动对安徽、河南以及湖北能源碳排放表现为正效应。     

中国人均能源碳排放因素分解及减排途径分析

以1981-2008年中国一次能源消费总量、人口数和GDP数据为基础,通过实证分析经济发展、能源强度和能源结构对这一时期人均碳排放的贡献发现:经济发展拉动了人均能源碳排放的增长,能源强度的降低抑制了人均能源碳排放的增长,能源结构的变化在研究期内先对人均能源碳排放起促进作用,然后起抑制作用,其拐点出现在1997年,但研究期内贡献不显著.近年来,能源结构的贡献却有逐步增强的趋势.     

吉林省能源消费碳排放相关影响因素分析及预测——基于灰色关联分析和GM(1,1)模型

采用灰色关联分析方法对吉林省2000~2012年能源消费人均碳排放量与能源消费价格、能源消费结构、能源消费强度、经济发展水平、产业结构和城市化水平等相关影响因素的关联度进行分析,并利用GM(1,1)模型对吉林省2016~2018年人均碳排放量进行了预测。预测结果显示,各相关影响因素在保持现状的情况下,能源消费人均碳排放量未来将会以更高的年均增长速度持续增长。为此,文章根据灰色关联度分析结果,从能源消费价格、能源消费结构、产业结构和能源消费强度几个碳排放相关影响因素入手,提出了降低吉林省能源消费碳排放的政策建议。     

长江经济带建设下江苏省工业碳排放测算及影响因素研究

论文基于长江经济带战略视角研究江苏省工业碳排放问题,以推动"强富美高"新江苏建设。运用IPCC清单法测算了2000—2015年江苏省工业碳排放量,并构建了基于能源结构、能源强度、经济结构和经济规模的碳排放恒等式,结合LMDI分解法,对2000—2015年江苏省碳排放的工业层面进行分解。结果表明:江苏省工业碳排放总量整体呈波动上升趋势,但增速减缓,单位能耗下降速度快于人均碳排放上升速度;经济规模是工业碳排放增长的主要动力;能源强度是有效抑制碳排放的关键因素;经济结构效应对于工业碳排放增长的贡献率由正到负;能源结构因素对于工业碳排放贡献率微弱,碳减排潜力有待发挥。结合以上结论提出以"区域协同、东西互补、绿色发展"为核心的工业生态发展新思路。     

城镇化进程中居民生活碳排放动态特征分析

对2000~2012年间中国城镇居民与农村居民的直接、间接碳排放变化情况进行统计及回归分析,结果表明:截至2012年,城镇居民人均直接碳排放量年均增长17.14%,间接碳排放量年均增长6.42%,农村居民人均直接碳排放量年均增长16.51%,间接碳排放量年均增长2.81%;能源消费强度的下降及居民生活消费支出的上升联合作用,使城镇与农村居民生活间接碳排放量均呈现波动增长趋势,其中食品与居住消费是居民间接碳排放主导因素;城镇居民人口数量是城镇居民生活碳排放总量的决定性因素;城镇生活方式相比农村具有更低的单位生活支出碳排放量;城镇化率对居民生活碳排放量分别具有0.13%和0.09%的弹性系数,初步验证了城镇化与居民生活碳排放的正相关关系。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for Reality Mining

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.