长江干线集装箱港口体系集中度演进分析

通过梳理长江干线港口集装箱发展历程,以长江干线21个主要港口为研究对象,选取1984—2016年各港口集装箱吞吐量,运用集中度法则,研究了长江干线集装箱港口体系的演进过程与发展特征,判别了竞合关系。结果表明:(1)长江干线集装箱港口体系的集中度总体呈下降趋势,港口间的竞争加剧;(2)集中度的变化轨迹呈现快速扩散、缓慢分散、稳步集中、再次分散、再次集中等5个阶段性特征,揭示了长江干线集装箱运输经历了由枢纽港占支配地位,到地区性港口迅速成长、集装箱港口体系均衡稳定的变化过程;(3)长江干线集装箱运输市场处于低度寡占型,但逐渐朝着充分竞争态势发展;(4)长江干线集装箱港口体系空间分布趋于均衡,空间格局具有较好的稳定性,形成了较为稳定的上中下游多中心并存的集装箱运输网络,重庆、武汉、南京、苏州等区域性枢纽港,在长江干线集装箱港口体系的演进中起主导作用。     

我国集装箱港口体系演进规律研究

从集装箱港口数量、吞吐量、空间布局、市场集中度几个角度,利用赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数来分析1979—2011年我国集装箱港口体系及市场结构的演变,指出1979—1989年是快速分散阶段,为高度集中的寡占市场;1989—2009年是缓慢分散和缓慢集中相互更替的发展阶段,形成了中度集中的寡占市场;2010—2011年延续了分散的趋势,HHI值已经小于1 000,出现了形成非集中竞争市场的趋势。这要求港口企业随着竞争程度的不断增强,需要不断提升质量、建设软环境,提高竞争力,从粗放式发展向精细化、敏捷化发展。     

长三角集装箱港口体系的集疏演化

以长三角12个集装箱港口为研究对象,选取2000—2015年各港口的吞吐量数据,采用基尼系数及其分解技术、重心偏移法和半径维数法等对长江三角洲集装箱港口体系的总体极化—离散格局、区域中心—外围格局、港口收敛—发散格局进行综合测度,并运用R/S分析法研判港口体系的空间集疏演化趋势。研究表明:2000—2015年间,长三角集装箱港口体系总体上由极化向离散转型,其中组间差异是港口体系空间分异的主要原因;港口运量集中分布于港口体系的运量重心,但呈现出由中心向外围扩散的态势;多数港口属于向上收敛或向下收敛型港口,对港口体系空间集疏起到均衡化作用;另外,长三角集装箱港口体系在未来的空间疏散化现象和边缘港挑战效应将长期持续下去。     

欧盟实施地区政策的经验与启示

一、欧盟地区政策的形成与实施 （一）欧盟地区政策的形成和演进过程 欧盟的地区政策经历了早期阶段（1957--1974年）、形成阶段（1975--1988年）、演进阶段（1989—2006年）。2007年将进入新阶段（2007--2013年）。     

我国沿海集装箱港口体系的空间结构及演化

以我国沿海34个主要集装箱港口为研究对象,选取2005—2013年各港口集装箱吞吐量,采用赫希曼—赫芬达尔指数、ArcGIS空间自相关研究方法,研究沿海港口体系的空间结构及其演化过程。结果表明:1沿海集装箱港口吞吐量的集中度日趋分散,港口间的竞争加剧,各港口群内部集中度表现不一致。2空间结构整体呈弱空间分散格局,除西南港口群外,其它各港口群枢纽港已形成。     

中国沿海集装箱港口群体系结构演化与竞争态势

利用赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数和偏离—份额分析法,基于港口体系和竞争理论,对中国沿海集装箱港口群2000—2013年的港口体系结构演化与竞争态势分析。研究结果表明,我国港口群体系格局从集中到分散演变,形成珠三角、长三角和环渤海地区港口群三足鼎立格局,港口群之间竞争激烈;目前港口群的竞争优势主要受腹地经济因素影响;香港港、广州港、深圳港和厦门港在全国港口体系中具有较强竞争优势。     

香港：跨越两个经济实体的华南集装箱集运中心

1引言自199以来．香港已经连续第五年雄居世界第一集装箱港的位置。除了新加坡紧随香港同为千万标箱吞吐量的特大港口、其它集装箱港口在规模上都被远远抛离（见图1）、虽然香港集装箱港飞速发展为世界经济东移及东南亚和中国与欧美主要贸易伙伴加强联系的结果．但作为地区集运中心其发展过程和今后可能的演变都与现有的集装箱集运中心理论并不吻合。因此、仔细探讨香港集装箱集运中心的发展过程的特殊性和其在区域集装箱运输体系中的作用就有理论意义。为了阐明上述特殊性和作用．本文将首先回述理论文献一指出它们的局限性、然后对香港作…     

国际航运中心模式的变化及上海国际航运中心的时代标志

一、国际航运中心模式的变化国际航运中心是一个发展的概念,随着时代的变迁,其内涵与体制也经历着持续的演进。纵观国际航运中心的演进过程可见,第一代国际航运中心的形成往往有赖于中心港口的经济地理位置,港口的自然条件以及航运中心内陆腹地的工业化水平。因此,一个天然良港或是水陆交通网的节点城市往往就在其经济发展过程中,自然演进为一个早期的国际航运中心,即使存在航运中心间的竞争,也是港口条件、规模以及腹地经济实力的竞争。进入第二代国际航运中心时代,其体制构建、政策推动的成分开始上升。体制与政策的推动对第二代…     

地区经济、交通基础设施与集装箱港口体系集中度变迁——基于1979-2010年中美集装箱港口体系的对比研究

在中美集装箱港口体系集中度变迁呈现趋同特征的事实分析基础上,采用质量竞争模型,从理论上研究了变迁的普遍因素,并进一步通过中美1979—2010年对比研究得出:集装箱港口体系的集中度主要受到沿海地区经济发展水平不均衡的影响;省间(州际)的交通基础设施网络分布差异也会使得集装箱集疏运体系分散化发展;相对于已经形成网络的美国铁路运输,我国港口的铁路里程的不均衡性仍然制约着港口体系进一步发展。     

发展集装箱海铁联运促进交通运输结构调整

我国集装箱海铁联运发展 一、集装箱海铁联运现状 改革开放后，尤其自20世纪90年代以来，我国港口集装箱运输迅猛发展，以快速增长的东部地区外向型经济为基础，以不断改善的公路和水路集装箱集疏运体系为支撑，港口集装箱吞吐量连年大幅度跃升，20年间的平均增长速度保持在25％左右，2010年全国港口集装箱吞吐量已达到1．45亿标准箱，自2003年后一直蝉联港口集装箱吞吐量世界第一，     

东北集装箱运输内陆中转站的发展设想

集装箱运输不仅实现了运输的高效化,信息化,门对门,而且改变了传统的货源组织方式和运输体系。它形成了以集装箱港口,运输通道,内陆中转站为主的内陆运输网络体系。在这一运输体系中,集装箱货运站有着非常重要的地位和作用,集装箱货运站发展滞后在一定程度上制约着内陆运输的集装箱水平和集装箱的运输效率,本文论述了集装箱运输网络形成和发展的一般规律,并在此基础上深入分析了东北集装箱货运站的发展现状,存在问题及内陆货运站的发展规划。     

Co-movement of the Chinese and U.S. aggregate stock returns

This article studies the co-movement of the levels, as well as of the volatilities, of the Chinese and U.S. aggregate stock returns in 1995–2014, focusing on the impact of the liberalization of Chinese stock market from 2005. The volatilities of the two returns appear to have started to co-move in 2006. To understand the co-movement, we use the GARCH BEKK method. The result suggests that before 2006, the evolution of the U.S. returns had a tendency to affect the Chinese returns in level and volatility. However, after 2006, the two returns affected each other in a more complex way.     

江苏省长江沿岸集装箱港口群体基本特征与战略方向

本文从系统综合性和空间地域性的角度,对江苏省长江沿岸集装箱港口群体的战略地位、区位优势、职能结构、地域结构和腹地组织等进行了全面分析,进而从宏观战略角度提出了该港群的未来发展方向。     

DRIFTING APART: CANADIAN AND U.S. LABOR MARKETS

Canadian and U.S. unemployment rates moved together within a narrow margin from 1961 to the mid-1970s. Since then, Canadian rates have exceeded U.S. rates by large margins—at times as much as 3 percentage points. Throughout this period, interest rates in the two countries have been nearly identical. Aggregate demand stimulation by government deficits has been greater in Canada than in the U.S., and the trade surplus in Canada has added to demand while the trade deficit in the U.S. has subtracted from demand. Therefore, it seems that conventional Keynesian arguments cannot explain the recent differences in unemployment rates.
Differences in labor market developments, however, can do so. During a period when real wages rose 35 percent in Canada, they fell 5 percent in the U.S. Since the recession of 1981, U.S. wages have dropped while Canadian wages have remained constant. Differences in labor productivity do not account for these developments. A strong case exists for the argument that the different paths of unemployment rates are due to different paths of real wage developments.
It is argued that the causes for these differences in labor market conditions are associated with substantial growth and decreases in unionization rates in Canada and the U.S., respectively. In addition, the unemployment insurance system in Canada is shown to be considerably more generous than that in the U.S.     

The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries

We study the changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to 14 OECD countries over the period 1981Q1–2010Q4. The U.S. monetary policy shock is defined as unexpected change in Effective Federal Funds Rate (FFR). We use a time varying parameter factor augmented VAR approach (TVP-FAVAR) to study the EFFR shocks together with a large data set of 265, major financial, macroeconomic and trade variables for U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Australia, Spain, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland and New Zealand. Our main findings are as follows. First, negative U.S. monetary policy shocks have considerable negative impact on GDP growth in the U.S., Canada, Japan and Sweden while most of the other member countries benefits. Second, the transmission to GDP growth has increased in OECD countries since the early 1980s. We also detect a more depressed GDP over medium term in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia, Norway and Sweden over the recent global financial crisis. Third, the size of U.S. monetary policy shocks during financial turmoil periods were unusual than normal periods and varies overtime. The financial crisis (2008–2009) is evidenced by decline in residential investment in the U.S. and propagation of this shock to Canada, Germany, Japan, Switzerland and New Zealand over the recent period. U.S. monetary policy shocks reduce share prices in most of the OECD countries; this impact is more pronounced over the turmoil period. Asset prices, interest rates and trade channel seem to play major role in propagation of monetary policy shocks.     

Implementing technology-forcing policies: The 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments and the introduction of advanced automotive emissions controls in the United States

Technology forcing is a strategy where a regulator specifies a standard that cannot be met with existing technology, or at least not at an acceptable cost. Using the 1970 U.S. Clean Air Act for controlling automobile emissions as a baseline example, we demonstrate the importance of the regulatory implementation process if regulations are to foster technological change. The 1970 legislation required steep emissions reductions for new 1975 and 1976 automobiles, which presented automakers with major technical and economic challenges. Nevertheless, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency successfully forced the adoption of two marquee control technologies—the catalytic converter in 1975 and the three-way catalyst in 1981. We focus on three factors critical to the implementation process: agency credibility to enforce standards, competitive pressures to drive industry research and development, and uncertainty about technological development.     

美国湿地保护和恢复政策综述

美国联邦政府湿地管理政策的演变大致可分为三个时期,即湿地开发期、政策转型期和“零净损失”期。这三个时期贯穿整个美国历史,在殖民和国家扩张时期,湿地转换成其他用途的激励导致了湿地的损失。直接鼓励湿地转换的激励机制于20世纪后期结束,随后直接和间接的激励逐渐被取消,保护湿地的政策才渐渐地被公众所接受。随着“零净损失”目标的采纳,保护和恢复湿地的努力也加快了速度。本文主要介绍美国湿地保护和恢复政策,如湿地其本情况、政府对湿地的管理和几点启示,仅供参考。     

THE EFFECTS OF U.S.-CHINA TRADE ON EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES IN THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER REGION

This article investigates the impact of foreign competition from China on employment and wages in four U.S.-Mexico Border counties: Santa Cruz, Arizona; San Diego, California; El Paso, Texas; and Webb, Texas. Using disaggregated industry-level data between 1992 and 2006, we find that increased trade with China is associated with significantly lower county-industry employment and wages. In contrast, and as expected, increased imports from Mexico are positively related to increased employment and wages in U.S.-Mexico border counties. The results indicate that the U.S.-Mexico supply-chain relationship related to the maquiladora industry is significantly affected by Chinese competition. Implications for policy include an increased focus on federal programs that are intended to diversify the border economy . ( JEL F13, F43, F23)     

港口收益与港口吞吐量的关系研究

以往的港口研究把更多的视角放在港口吞吐量与国民经济的关系上，却忽视了吞吐量的真正完成者即港口运营者的表现。在国家倡导高质量发展背景下，本文以中国 12个沿海港口为对象，定量分析了港口收益与港口吞吐量的关系，试图揭示吞吐量增长对港口收益增长的作用大小。研究发现：（1）无论港口营业收入还是营业利润，都与港口吞吐量 （货物、集装箱）具有高度的相关性，但从港口收益吞吐量弹性看，港口利润吞吐量弹性好于港口收入吞吐量弹性，且集装箱吞吐量增长对港口盈利作用更显著；（2）各港口收益 （特别是利润）吞吐量弹性多样化的表现说明，港口收益还受其投资或规模扩张制约，而不单单决定于其吞吐量的大小；（3）在沿海港口激烈竞争环境下， “以量取胜”的传统港口增长路径面临着中美贸易战走势不确定、中国经济转型、世界经济增长乏力等宏观因素的制约，香港、深圳等港口发展的战略转向为中国其他港口转型发展提供了参考。     

Inflation,minimum wage and other wages: an econometric study on French macroeconomic data

This study examines the set of interdependences between the formation of wages, prices and the minimum wage (SMIC) through a vectorial error correction model estimated on French quarterly macroeconomic data covering the 1970–1/1999-4 period. Two periods are distinguished: the period of inflation rise from 1970 to 1981, which coincides with an important squeeze of the wage range, measured by the ratio of the minimum wage to the hourly wage rate; the period of disinflation since 1981, that has been concomitant with a stability of wage inequalities. Disinflation has hardly benefited the evolution of the SMIC which has always profited by price rises, in real and relative terms, which have become less strong. This evolution does not benefit any more on wage rises, when the interdependences between variables are taken into account. The SMIC seems however to have gained in efficiency as an instrument on wage disparity reduction. It rises are finally more persistent in real terms and relatively to the other salaries and have always as little inflationary impact on wages as on prices.