嘉兴市旅游客源市场开发与营销对策

随着旅游业的发展,旅游客源市场的开发与营销已成为一个地区旅游业可持续发展的关键。文章在分析嘉兴市旅游客源市场规模、空间分布规律和游客行为特征的基础上,对嘉兴旅游客源市场的竞争机制和开发定位进行了研究,提出了嘉兴市旅游业客源市场可持续发展的营销对策。     

内蒙古入境旅游客源市场格局及对策——基于2004—2012年面板数据动态分析

对旅游客源市场演化特征和内在机制进行分析,是促进旅游业健康发展的前提和条件之一。文章依据《中国旅游统计年鉴》(2005—2013年)数据,应用亲景度和竞争态模型,利用统计软件,对2004—2012年内蒙古入境旅游客源市场进行了分析,揭示了其变化轨迹,进而对拓展该客源市场提出了对策和建议,以为内蒙古旅游业实现可持续发展提供学术支撑和理论依据。     

城市水源地旅游市场特征及开发战略研究--以首都水源地密云县为例

城市水源地是城市水资源供给的地区，城市可持续发展有赖于城市水资源的可持续供给，水源地有其独特的区域发展规律。旅游开发是调整、优化水源地产业结构和提高居民生活水平的重要措施，对于水源地可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以首都水源地密云县为例，分析了城市水源地生态环境保护与旅游业发展的辩证关系，并依据客源市场特征及市场开发背景的分析，从旅游市场定位、旅游产品开发、旅游形象、旅游促销四个方面提出了密云旅游市场开发战略，以期促进密云旅游业的持续发展和首都水源地的保护，并为同类型旅游地的发展提供借鉴。     

福建省旅游海外客源市场的特征与开发战略

本文通过福建省与广东省旅游海外客源市场现状对比,概括了福建省旅游海外客源市场的现状特征,分析了福建省海外旅游业落后于广东省的原因,提出了进一步开拓海外客源市场的战略构想。     

台湾旅游客源市场的结构与开发浅谈

自1987年以来，台湾旅游客源市场在中国大陆旅游业日渐显示其重要性。该市场具有总量增长快，散客比例高，中青年化，商务旅游比重高等特点。针对这些特点，祖国大陆的旅游企业应该相应采取不同的措施，以加快加大对台湾客源市场的开发。     

澳门博彩旅游业客源“内地化”趋势的研究

博彩旅游业是澳门经济发展的重要战略平台。自2003年内地开放自由行以来，澳门博彩旅游客源市场的“内地化”趋势日益明显，澳门博彩旅游客源市场的这种内地化倾向给澳门经济发展带来了许多隐忧。从澳门在国际旅游体系的角色及城市功能地位出发，澳门博彩旅游客源市场的未来发展应在加强区域旅游合作的基础上，走“多元化”的发展道路。为此，应采取相应措施，推动澳门博彩旅游客源市场向多元化方向发展。     

河南省旅游市场分析及客源目标市场选择

河南省拥有丰富的旅游资源,但近年来旅游业绩却一直徘徊在全国中下游水平,强大的资源优势并没有转化为相应的经济优势。其根本原因之一是旅游市场拓展不力,影响了旅游品牌的建立和竞争力的提高。文章运用市场分析模型和数理统计方法对入境和国内旅游市场进行了深入细致的分析,总结了入境和国内客源市场的特点,划分了入境和国内旅游的三级客源目标市场,力图从旅游市场拓展方面为旅游业的发展做出有益的探索。     

江西省海外客源市场空间结构研究

旅游地客源市场空间结构对旅游业发展具有重要影响。通过研究2001-2010年江西省海外主要客源市场数据,分析了海外客源市场的集聚程度,得出江西省海外旅游市场所呈现的一些规律;探讨了江西海外旅游市场是否具有稳定性,并提出江西省在发展海外市场的一些对策。     

澳门博彩旅游客源市场“内地化”趋向的分析

博彩旅游业是澳门经济发展的战略平台。自2003年内地开放自由行以来,澳门博彩旅游客源市场的＂内地化＂趋势日益明显,澳门博彩旅游客源市场的这种内地化倾向给澳门经济发展带来了许多隐忧。从澳门在国际旅游体系的角色及城市功能地位出发,澳门博彩旅游业的未来发展应在加强区域旅游合作的基础上,走＂国际化＂的发展道路。为此,应采取相应措施,推动澳门博彩旅游客源市场向国际化方向发展。     

山西旅游经济五年实现跨越式发展

近几年，在省委、省政府的重视下，省旅游局下大力抓了旅游市场的开拓，初步扩大了山西在省外、国外的知名度，拓宽了旅游市场，增加了旅游客源。坚持不懈地抓旅游资源和产品开发，旅游基础设施条件有了较大改善，初步形成了以航空、铁路、公路为主的综合旅游运输体系，为加快旅游业发展提供了基础条件。旅游产业规模不断扩张。到2001年底，全省旅游总收入首次突破100亿大关，使旅游业成为我省国民经济新的增长点。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for Reality Mining

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.