江苏省水环境污染与经济发展关系研究

以环境库兹涅茨理论为基础,建立了江苏省经济增长与废水排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)计量模型,并分别从时序维度和截面维度对两者之间的关系进行了研究.结果表明:时序维度上,江苏省废水排放总量、城镇生活污水排放量、城镇生活污水COD排放量与人均GDP的拟合反映出显著的EKC曲线特征;从截面维度上,各城市废水排放总量、工业废水排放量、工业COD排放量与人均GDP的拟合也呈明显的EKC关系.总体上,江苏经济与水环境之间正趋向良性发展,水污染正在减弱,有望在未来实现经济与环境的双赢.     

资源型城市经济发展与环境污染关系研究——以衡阳市为例

为促进衡阳市经济与环境协调发展,采用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)对衡阳市经济发展与环境污染水平的关系进行定量研究,以衡阳市2004-2016年人均GDP为经济指标,以废水排放总量,废气排放总量,工业固体废物贮存量为环境指标。结果表明:衡阳市人均GDP与环境污染未呈现倒"U"型环境库兹涅茨曲线。人均GDP与工业废水排放量及工业固体废弃物产生量的EKC曲线表现为倒"N"型的三次曲线特征,且均已通过倒"N"型的峰值,说明衡阳市工业废水排放量和工业固体废弃物产生量会随着经济增长呈现下降趋势。人均GDP与工业废气排放量呈现较弱的"S"型,无明显峰值和拐点,且呈现上升趋势,说明衡阳市工业废气排放量会随着经济增长呈现增长趋势。结合衡阳市实际,提出促进衡阳市经济与环境协调发展的对策和建议。     

山东省污染物排放与经济发展关系研究

运用多元线性回归和环境库兹涅茨曲线模型模拟1981—2015年山东省环境质量与经济发展之间的关系。研究结果表明,山东省SO2排放量与人均GDP的关系不显著,SO2排放量随经济发展先急剧上升后波浪式下降;烟粉尘排放量与人均GDP符合U型模型,工业废水、固体废物排放量与人均GDP存在倒U型关系。山东省应优化产业结构,提高公众环境保护意识,加强环境治理,加大投资力度,避免环境污染程度随经济发展出现反复恶化的情况。     

淮河流域的工业环境库兹涅茨曲线再检验——来自2005—2014年安徽省地级市面板数据

基于2005—2014年淮河流域安徽段8个地级市工业环境与经济相关统计数据，通过非参数Kernel函数估计描绘该区域人均GDP和工业污染排放物的动态演进过程，进而构建淮河流域环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型，考察淮河流域生态环境质量变迁与经济增长的关系。研究表明:该区域的经济发展水平整体处于上升阶段，随着时间推移地区之间差距拉大，而人均工业废水排放和人均工业废气排放的核密度估计分布图存在一定的相似性；人均工业废气排放量与人均GDP呈现线性关系，人均工业废水排放量和人均工业固体废弃物排放量与人均GDP之间均表现出正“U”型二次曲线关系，与典型的EKC曲线特征不是完全符合，安徽淮河流域大部分地区仍然处于随经济发展而生态环境不断恶化阶段。     

基于面板数据的中国区域水环境污染EKC分析

为深入探讨环境指标选择对库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的影响,利用对数多项式函数,通过改变具体水环境污染指标,分别采用工业废水排放量、工业废水排放当量以及提出污染感知度等环境指标与人均GDP进行模型拟合。研究发现,环境指标越能反映真实水环境污染情况,拟合结果越符合EKC规律,中国的水环境污染和人均GDP的关系在统计上符合EKC规律。探讨水资源丰富程度和经济发达程度对EKC的影响。水资源匮乏的省份,水环境质量与经济增长符合EKC规律。经济发达的省份,水环境持续恶化的趋势全部得到扭转,经济落后的省份表现不一,部分省份的水环境污染依然在加剧。     

用水总量与经济发展关系探讨

选取我国2004—2013年的用水量、经济增长数据,通过分析用水量与人均GDP间的关系,探讨我国各地区用水总量与经济发展的关系。结果表明:我国用水量与经济增长之间并不符合典型的倒U形库兹涅茨曲线特征;通过修正曲线模型,分析得到我国用水总量与人均GDP之间呈U+倒U形的曲线。为剖析我国用水总量与经济增长的演变规律,在模型中引入第一产业增加值在GDP中所占的比例、人均可支配收入以及城镇化率等反应经济发展的指标,衡量产业结构调整、城镇化水平对用水量的影响,为在未来的经济发展过程中合理开发利用水资源提供事实依据。     

日本碳排放的库兹涅茨曲线研究——基于VEC模型和Chow's检验的分析

应用环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,运用VEC模型和Chow’s检验对日本1971—2014年人均碳排放、人均GDP和对外直接投资之间的关系进行了整体与分阶段检验。研究表明:从整体看,该期间的碳排放库兹涅茨曲线呈正"N"型;但1971-1993年的碳排放库兹涅茨曲线呈倒"U"型,而1993—2006年则呈正"U"型,1993—2014年则没有得到明显的库兹涅茨曲线。对外直接投资和人均GDP对碳排放具有正向影响,且长期效果大于短期效果。日本的东亚雁行国际分工模式、较完备的环境法律体系、积极的节能减排政策和较强的环保意识使日本实现了经济增长与碳排放脱钩。中国应落实好可持续发展战略,升级国内产业结构,发展新能源技术,完善低碳发展的法律体系,树立低碳发展理念,尽早步入低碳社会。     

河南省耕地和城镇用地变化与经济发展的相关分析

以河南省1996-2005年的统计资料为基础,分析在经济发展过程中耕地面积的变化以及城镇用地的变化,并运用统计分析方法,对近十年来耕地和城镇用地变化与固定资产投资、人均GDP等经济指标进行相关分析.结果表明:耕地面积与固定资产投资、人均GDP呈正"U"型二次曲线相关;城镇用地与固定资产投资、人均GDP呈对数曲线相关.这说明随着经济的发展耕地和城镇用地将逐渐达到平衡状态.     

江苏能越过碳排放库兹涅茨曲线拐点吗?——基于江苏碳排放的二阶段因素分解模型分析

对江苏省能源消耗的碳排放进行了估算,分析了人均碳排放与人均GDP的关系,并对江苏省碳排放进行了二阶段因素分解分析。结果发现,江苏碳排放库兹涅茨曲线存在拐点,经济发展是带动江苏省人均碳排放增长的主要因素,而能源效率对抑制江苏人均碳排放增长起到了关键的作用,能源结构、产业结构的贡献份额都呈现"倒U型"曲线。江苏能否顺利越过该拐点,则取决于包括加大转型升级力度等一揽子政策的实施。     

城市用水与经济发展:政策的影响——基于27个国家的实证分析

揭示城市人均用水和经济社会发展的长期关系,分析政策因素对于城市人均用水量的影响。基于面板数据回归模型,考察27个国家在1960—2010年的城市用水情况,发现城市人均用水与经济发展存在着N型关系,即随着经济发展,城市人均用水量经历先增后减的过程,当经济发展达到较高水平,城市用水趋于稳定,且略有增加,这一关系吻合库兹涅茨曲线的形态,因此被命名为水的库兹涅茨曲线。区分水的效率政策和水的效能政策2种不同的政策,发现水的效率政策对于降低城市人均用水量效果更为直接显著,而水的效能政策则需要一定时间的实施使其发挥效果。政府可通过合理配置不同的政策实现水资源的优化利用,从而实现可持续发展。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

The Effect of the Structural Adjustment Program on the Output,Prices and Exports of Major Agricultural Export Crops in Nigeria

The primary objective of this paper is to examine changes in the level of output, prices and exports of major export crops resulting from the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria. THere two main sources of data: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its annual reports, Economic and Financial Review, and the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) through its Trade Summaries. Although the SAP led to appreciable increases in output and producer prices, its effects on exports were insignificant. The implications of these for the implementation of the program are explored.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Revealing different understandings of soil held by scientists and farmers in the context of soil protection and management

This paper aims to analyse and draw together results from similar studies in England, Switzerland and France which investigated farmers’ understanding of soil and compared it with that of scientists, researchers and advisors (collectively called scientists in this analysis). A range of methods were used across the three studies and different theoretical approaches, looking at forms of knowledge, local practice of knowledge production and conceptions of reality, were employed to explain the results. Despite the different contexts, methodologies and theoretical approaches in the three studies, the results reveal similar patterns of difference in farmer and scientist understanding of soil. In the English study, farmers demonstrate a ‘know-how’ form or intuitive working knowledge of soil while advisors rely on scientifically established forms of ‘know-why’ and seek to understand and explain soil processes. Similarly in the Swiss study farmers’ and scientists’ differing perceptions are directed and shaped by their respective aims, methods and context of work. In the French study, farmers and researchers are shown to have different conceptions of soil, they attribute different meaning to the same activities, and use different words and language to describe the same features. In all three studies understanding is shown to be cultural and contextual, as such an integrative theoretical framework is proposed.     

森林生物多样性评价模型的改进

针对2002年的评价模型中的不足,提出了新的改进后的森林生物多样性变化的评价模型,并在我国第六次森林资源清查(1999～2003)资料的基础上,对1973～2003年我国森林生物多样性的变化进行了补充评价。评价结果表明:我国森林生物多样性的压力越来越大,压力指数由1973年的100,上升到2003年的199.10,上升了1.99倍;森林物种多样性总体的下降趋势已有一定幅度的改变,森林物种多样性指数增加了31.12%。森林生态系统多样性和森林生物多样性先逐渐上升,尔后又下降,第六次森林资源清查时又有所恢复,并分别上升了4.67个百分点和17.90个百分点。     

Evaluating Alternative Policy Responses to Higher World Food Prices: The Case of Increasing Rice Prices in Madagascar

Higher world food prices have led many developing countries to adopt policies to mitigate the impact on low-income households. This article sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to evaluate tariff reductions and targeted transfers in Madagascar. Although lowering tariffs generates substantial efficiency gains, these accrue mainly to the top half of the welfare distribution, and poor net sellers are actually worse off. Developing a system of targeted direct transfers to poor households is likely to be a substantially more cost-effective approach to poverty alleviation.     

转变地质工作发展与服务方式的实践和建议

天津市地矿局注重加快转变经济发展方式,发挥地质工作优势,推进低碳清洁能源的开发利用创新和技术进步,紧紧依托地质工作的人才、技术和行业优势,加大清洁环保资源的勘查、研究、开发、利用。针对天津市水资源缺乏的情况,积极加强后备和应紧水源勘查。按照“两种资源,两个市场”的思路,通过实施中外合作勘查项目,以境外勘查工作为载体和平台,实施引进来和走出去战略,为天津市经济社会发展提供地质技术支撑。