Summits,Riots and Media Attention: The Political Economy of Information on Trade and Globalisation

Supply of information has increased rapidly through the growth of commercial media and technological innovations. Yet economists still blame anti‐globalists’ demonstrations and public opposition to trade liberalisation on poor information. This paper analyses how the structure of the media industry affects the distribution of information on trade policy and globalisation. We present an empirical analysis of Belgian media reporting on trade policy and globalisation over the 1999–2002 period, supports these hypotheses and finds strong negative bias in media coverage. Moreover, we find that media coverage of trade policy and globalisation is highly concentrated around summit meetings of political leaders. Media attention in the popular press is heavily influenced by riots and demonstrations at summits. The paper points at important implications for public information on trade policy and globalisation and for economists.     

基于扎根理论的农业物流生态圈协同影响因素分析

农业物流生态圈作为一种先进的发展模式,可通过各子系统的相互协作达到双赢,解决传统农业发展面临的产业联动性差、技术水平低下、运营模式落后等问题,推动农业供给侧结构性改革。而考虑到农业物流生态圈涉及主体众多,其协同受多种因素共同作用,需要构建农业物流生态圈协同影响因素框架,以为农业物流生态圈协同研究提供指标体系。基于扎根理论这一质性研究方法,利用Nvivo11.0软件对访谈文本及相关文献资料进行深度分析,得到112个初始概念,进而由初始概念概括出39个范畴,提炼出15个副范畴,最终归纳出协同环境、协同机制、协同能力、协同意愿、扰动因素五个主范畴,形成农业物流生态圈协同影响因素框架。在这个框架中,协同环境可定义为外驱因素,协同机制、协同能力可定义为内驱因素,协同意愿可定义为中介因素,且各因素并非直接对农业物流生态圈产生影响,而是主要通过三条路径进行,其一是外驱因素→中介因素→农业物流生态圈协同,其二是内驱因素→中介因素→农业物流生态圈协同,其三是扰动因素对内驱因素和外驱因素进行调节。     

要素禀赋、中间产品与技术赶超作用机理

扩展的要素禀赋理论包括要素数量和要素质量两个维度,它们对后发经济收敛的机理是不一样的。借鉴中间品扩张模型,将要素数量和质量转化为中间投入品的数量和质量,通过中间投入品的数量扩张和质量提升对技术赶超的作用机理推导发现,后发国家实现技术赶超的速度取决于技术基础、要素的数量(包括人力资本的规模)、要素的质量指数及创新成本等,特别注意的是赶超速度与要素质量参数的关系是不确定的,要看要素质量与其他要素的匹配程度。最后提出了一些措施,以有效地促进技术赶超。     

How Has Globalisation Affected Inflation in China?

This paper investigates how globalisation has affected inflation in China. We estimated standard Phillips curve inflation equations and examined whether globalisation has affected the structure of inflation dynamics as captured by the Phillips curve. Empirical results suggest that the globalisation of the Chinese economy has changed the behaviour of inflation dynamics. In particular, the impact of domestic and global output gaps on domestic inflation in China has changed significantly since 1994. Before 1994, the domestic output gap was a major factor in driving domestic inflation. After 1994, however, the global output gap plays a significant and more important role in affecting domestic inflation. The finding implies that Chinese monetary authorities should specifically take into account the developments in global output in their monetary policymaking process.     

Three decades of globalisation: Which countries won,which lost?

The world average exports-to-GDP ratio increased from 17% in 1985 to 27% in 2015. Hence, world exports have grown much faster than world GDP. However, despite this overall trade integration, which is a key aspect of globalisation, the exports-to-GDP ratios have declined for 29 of the 118 countries with such data from 1985 to 2015. Some countries have been driving globalisation, while others have become marginalised. This paper examines three decades of globalisation to shed some light upon which countries might be considered winners and which countries might be considered losers of globalisation. After summarising the evolution of income and income per capita, we examine the evolution of exports and net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Contradictory to previous decades, we show there are now many countries from all income groups that have either experienced marginalisation or been driving globalisation. We then use novel regression analysis to review the robustness of generally accepted drivers of globalisation and marginalisation, with education and macroeconomic stability being the two most robust determinants.     

Globalisation,inequality and redistribution: Theory and evidence

This paper constructs a simple theoretical model to study the implications of globalisation for inequality and redistribution. It shows that when globalisation increases inequality, a policymaker interested in maximising the sum of welfares of all agents increases redistribution. Empirically, the paper examines the effects of globalisation on inequality and redistribution in a panel data set of 140 countries for the period from 1970 to 2012. It finds that both inequality and redistribution have been increasing with globalisation. The results are robust to the inclusion of many different controls and the exclusion of outliers.     

Revisiting the nexus between globalisation and the shadow economy: Untying the influences of de jure versus de facto globalisation

This paper examines the relationship between globalisation and the size of the shadow economy, focusing on the differential effects of de jure and de facto globalisation. Using panel data on over 120 countries from 1991 to 2017, the results suggest that globalisation reduces the prevalence of the shadow economy. Furthermore, after differentiating between de jure and de facto globalisation, we find that both de facto and de jure globalisation are effective in curbing the spread of the shadow economy, with de jure globalisation showing a marginally larger impact. However, once we disaggregate the sample into OECD and non-OECD countries, the results show that it is mainly the OECD countries driving this result while the influence of globalisation is statistically insignificant in non-OECD countries. These results withstand a series of robustness analyses and offer important policy implications.     

Trade Wars: The Exaggerated Impact of Trade in Economic Debate

The rules governing trade and capital flows have been at the centre of controversy as globalisation has proceeded. One reason is the belief that trade and capital flows have massive effects on the labour market – either positive, per the claims of international financial institutions and free trade enthusiasts, or negative, per the ubiquitous protestors at WTO, IMF and World Bank meetings demanding global labour standards. Comparing the claims made in this debate with the outcomes of trade agreements, this paper finds that the debate has exaggerated the effects of trade on economies and the labour market. Changes in trade policy have had modest impacts on the labour market. Other aspects of globalisation – immigration, capital flows and technology transfer – have greater impacts, with volatile capital flows creating great risk for the well-being of workers. As for labour standards, global standards do not threaten the comparative advantage of developing countries nor do poor labour standards create a ‘race to the bottom’.     

Human and financial capital as determinants of biopharmaceutical IPO de-listings

The present study combines human capital theory with work on IPOs related to sources of financial capital of recent, publicly traded biopharmaceutical firms and relates this to the de-listing of these firms. The study follows the generally accepted view that more or better quality human capital is a positive factor in individual and firm performance to develop the hypotheses, positing a negative relationship between these factors and IPO de-listing. The results show that to a limited extent firms having CEOs with more or better human capital and strategic alliance partners are associated with biopharmaceutical IPOs’ de-listing. The study further finds that de-listing in this industry is due primarily to acquisitions (and not financial distress) and that the findings differ based upon whether examining financial distress or acquisition de-listings. The study draws upon the IPO motivation literature to help explain the results.     

Globalisation and Obesity

The WHO has recently announced the global obesity epidemic. An economic model is developed in which globalisation factors generate health externalities and contribute to global obesity growth. The unbalanced panel data set contains the information for 79 countries over the period 1986–2008. Fixed‐effects panel data estimation and quantile regression analysis were used to analyse the data. The fixed‐effects panel model results indicate that the impact of trade openness and the globalisation social index (GSI) on global obesity rates is positive and significant, which is consistent with prior expectations, while surprisingly the foreign direct investments (FDI) has no impact on global obesity. While these results are interesting, they are hiding the effect of globalisation processes across the conditional distribution of the obesity variable. The use of quantile regression uncovered that the impact of the FDI and the GSI on low and average quantiles (low and average obesity rates in our sample) is positive and significant, while high quantiles are not affected. Since low and average quantiles (low and average obesity rates) are representative of the less‐ and medium‐developed countries, this result implies that social globalisation and FDI adversely impact obesity in less‐to‐medium developed countries. Trade openness generally has no impact on changes in obesity rates across quantiles.     

The Uneven Pace of Deindustrialisation in the OECD

Throughout the OECD, the period since the 1970s saw a secular decline in manufacturing's share of GDP and a secular rise in the share of services. Despite this being a central feature of growth, the economic forces behind deindustrialisation and the reasons why its pace varied so markedly across OECD countries are not well understood. Adopting an econometric approach founded in neoclassical production theory, we provide an empirical analysis of the role of changes in relative prices, technology and factor endowments in driving changes in production structure. The speed of adjustment to changes in these determinants of production structure varies across OECD countries and is correlated with levels of employment protection.     

The effects of social networks on the flow of international students

International study provides many benefits to the countries that host students, to the students’ home countries and to the students themselves. We extend the empirical knowledge regarding flows of international students, using a panel of data that spans 17 years, 26 host countries and 85 countries of origin. We examine the hypothesis that social networks are an important factor motivating study abroad by including lagged variables of the levels and shares of enrolment in the analysis. The analysis shows that they are significant factors: a 1% rise in a host country's share of an origin country's international student “diaspora” is associated with a 0.09%–0.12% rise in the number of students studying in that host from that origin, 5 years later. This is consistent with the literature on the economics of immigration, which finds social networks to be important, and transitory, in inducing immigration. These effects are found in models that control for other factors as well: earnings differentials, quality of higher education system, distance, common language and colonial relationship. The results suggest that one‐off policies to better recruit or attract international students will have ongoing benefits, in terms of follow‐on recruitment of further students by the initial students.     

武汉市渔业生产力与其人文影响因素的灰色关联性分析

以位于长江中下游平原的＂百湖之市＂——武汉市为研究对象,利用灰色关联模型分析了武汉市渔业生产力与其人文影响因素的互动关系。研究结果表明：各项人文影响因素与渔业中鱼类、虾蟹类、贝类和其他类生产量的关联度均在0.6以上,人文因素是影响渔业产量的基本因素;总体上化肥用量、养殖面积和城市化对渔业生产的影响较大,而人口密度、人口素质和人均GDP的影响较小;化肥用量、城市化、养殖面积和人口密度是影响武汉渔业生产中鱼类、贝类和其他类产量的主要人文驱动因子;人均GDP和人口素质是影响武汉虾蟹产量的主要人文驱动因子。     

Identifying the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes: a case study of Lahore,Pakistan

ABSTRACT

The study identifies the factors behind fatal and non-fatal road crashes in Lahore, Pakistan, by investigating 461 reported cases to Traffic Police Lahore that occurred during January–November 2014. Road crashes are categorized into fatal and non-fatal crashes and, because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression is used to identify the factors behind these crashes. As a follow-up, discriminant analysis is employed to classify the factors related to fatal and non-fatal crashes. The logistic regression results reveal that females are at higher risk of fatalities than male drivers. Among vehicle types, rickshaws and cars are more involved in fatal accidents because both are growing at large on roads. Long trucks and trailers are also involved in fatal accidents, mainly because of their huge size and drivers’ risky driving behaviours. It is also noted that risk of fatalities is higher in case where two vehicles bumped each other. Speeding and overloading are the common behaviours resulting in fatal crashes. Better urban transport systems and strict compliance with traffic rules and regulations may improve road safety in Pakistan.     

Education bias of trade liberalization and wage inequality in developing countries

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled–unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster.     

The Evidence on Globalisation

Globalisation is blamed for many socioeconomic shortcomings. I discuss the consequences of globalisation by surveying the empirical globalisation literature. My focus is on the KOF indices of globalisation that have been used in more than 100 studies. Early studies using the KOF index reported correlations between globalisation and several outcome variables. Studies published more recently identify causal effects. The evidence shows that globalisation has spurred economic growth, promoted gender equality and improved human rights. Moreover, globalisation did not erode welfare state activities, did not have any significant effect on labour market interaction and hardly influenced market deregulation. It increased, however, within‐country income inequality. The consequences of globalisation thus turn out to be overall much more favourable than often conjectured in the public discourse.     

Globalisation,Growth and Convergence

This paper, devoted to the study of globalisation, analyses two distinct but closely related issues: First, it aims at evaluating disparities in the degree of globalisation observed in a sample of 101 countries over the period 1970–2005. Second, the paper tries to shed some light to the much debated issue of whether globalisation affects economic growth and, in so doing, whether convergence in globalisation brings about convergence in per capita income. The results obtained are both encouraging: on the one side, as it is shown that there has been a clear process of globalisation convergence; on the other, the paper concludes that globalisation has been one of the main drivers of economic growth, thus fostering convergence in per capita income.     

Exploring factors driving social recruiting: The case of Australian organizations

This study identifies key factors driving the organizational adoption of social recruiting technologies, such as LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. The Technology, Organization, and Environment (TOE) framework, as an initial exploratory approach, is used to identify underlying factors of new technology adoption. Qualitative evidence collected from 12 Australian firms serves to specifically categorize key determinants of the organizational adoption of social recruiting technologies. It is found that apart from several TOE factors that significantly influence the organizational decision making with reference to social recruiting, top management support is seen as imperative for successful adoption of recruiting technologies. Formalization, comprehensiveness, and strategic orientation of organizational human resource departments are closely linked to adoption of social recruiting at the firm level. In addition, job applicants’ readiness and local success stories have driven firms to adopt social recruiting technologies. The study extends and modifies the TOE model to provide the theoretical foundations of social recruiting in the context of Australian organizations and help human resource professionals and practitioners to gain a better understanding of key drivers of organizational social recruiting.     

“十一五”期间我国农产品价格波动的影响因素分析——基于协整和向量自回归模型的实证研究

本文采用协整理论和向量自回归模型,并结合定性分析研究了"十一五"期间各种因素对我国农产品价格波动的影响,着重考察了国际农产品价格对国内农产品价格波动的影响。研究发现,我国农产品价格中的国际传导因素日益突出,但二者之间只存在着单向的因果关系;国际农产品价格波动对我国农产品价格的传导存在着时滞;农业生产资料价格的影响非常显著,我国农产品价格主要由农业生产成本决定;国际石油价格波动对国际农产品价格波动影响显著,但对我国农产品价格的影响有限。在此研究基础上,本文对稳定农产品价格、规避农产品价格风险提出了具体建议。     

O2O生鲜电商平台消费者重购意愿影响机制

基于迁徙理论,从驱动与锁定双视角出发,从推力因素、拉力因素和锁定因素三个层面对线上线下融合(O2O)生鲜电商平台重复购买意愿影响因素与内在机理进行实证研究。通过网络调查问卷采集886份消费者样本数据,运用结构方程模型对研究假说进行检验,结果表明,影响O2O生鲜电商平台重复购买意愿具有驱动效应和锁定效应两大机制,其中顾客满意度是驱动效应中的中介变量,顾客惰性是锁定效应中的中介变量。此外,推力因素的便利性、拉力因素的感知价值、锁定因素的转换成本、主观规范与在线涉入度均对消费者重复购买意愿产生正向影响。在后疫情时代,O2O生鲜电商企业应重视以消费者为中心的关系型营销理念,强化体验营销手段,在满足消费者便利性需求与高价值感受的同时,增强消费者对O2O生鲜电商平台的交易依赖,提高消费者黏性。