Is operational hedging a substitute for or a complement to financial hedging?

This paper investigates operational hedging by firms and how operational hedging is related to financial hedging by using a sample of 424 firm observations, which consist of 212 operationally hedged firms (firms with foreign sales) and a size- and industry-matched sample of 212 non-operationally hedged firms (firms with export sales). We find that non-operationally hedged firms use more financial hedging, relative to their levels of foreign currency exposure, as measured by the amount of export sales. On the other hand, though operationally hedged firms have more currency exposure, their usage of financial derivatives becomes much smaller than that of exporting firms. These results can explain why some global firms use very limited amount of financial derivatives for hedging purpose despite much higher levels of currency risk exposure. We also show that hedging increases firm value.     

THE ECONOMIC EXPOSURE OF U.S. MULTINATIONAL FIRMS

In this paper we find that the exchange rate exposure of individual firms increases with the return horizon. Also, the cross-sectional differences in the magnitude of exposure of individual firms are significantly related to firm size but not to the relative portion of foreign sales to total sales. The empirical evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that hedging activities exhibit economies of scale, and, consequently, the magnitude of economic exposure is less for larger firms than for smaller firms.     

The Role of Product-Level Dynamics in Export Growth and Productivity: Evidence from Estonia

Recent empirical studies of international trade have stressed that firm-level decisions about the number of export products or markets are an important margin of adjustment in response to globalization and changes in economic conditions. We investigate how decisions about the export product mix are associated with aggregate export dynamics and productivity of firms. We use detailed data on product and export market levels for the full population of Estonia's firms. Decomposition analysis of trade flows shows that both the relative importance of firms' beginning to export products and the role of product-level churning (firms' adding and dropping of products) in total Estonian export growth increases significantly after accession to the European Union in 2004. We show that concentration on core competence products has a rather different association with productivity of firms in different-size groups. Large firms with a large number of different types of export products gain, on average, in terms of productivity from concentrating their export sales on their core export products. There is no such general regularity in the case of small firms.     

Integrated foreign exchange risk management: The role of import in medium-sized manufacturing firms

Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as an instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role of import in medium-sized manufacturing firms in Denmark (a small, open economy). We find a strong, negative relation between import and the use of foreign exchange derivatives on the aggregate level. Our findings are consistent with the notion that firms use import to match the foreign exchange exposure created by foreign sales activities.     

The Asian exposure of U.S. firms: Operational and risk management strategies

This paper examines the Asian currency exposure of U.S. firms with regard to their international operational and risk management strategies. We find that contemporaneous and lagged changes in real exchange rates have significant impacts on firm value for about 30% of the U.S. firms with Asian operations. The effects of a strong dollar are heterogeneous, with both significantly positive and significantly negative coefficients. The exchange exposure coefficients are then estimated as a function of international operational and risk management variables. A strong dollar has an adverse effect on firm value when the firm has a negative initial exposure position, and is related to exports and local sales activities of the firms. However, asset deployment in Asia raises the exposure in absolute terms regardless of initial exposure condition. Variables for hedging incentives explain exposure in both positive and negative exposure cases. Finally, a disaggregate study by country shows significant intra-regional differences, indicating the different ways in which the U.S. firms used their Asian subsidiaries operationally.     

Stock market reaction to COVID-19: Evidence from U.S. Firms’ International exposure

We examine the U.S. stock market reaction to the World Health Organization's announcement declaring COVID-19 a global health emergency, with a focus on firms' international exposure. We find that while international exposure through foreign sales, foreign assets, imports and exports are significant and negatively associated with standardized cumulative abnormal returns in the short-run, the effect reverses in the long-run. In the long-run, internationalization contributes to multinational firms being more resilient to economic shocks caused by COVID-19.     

促进经济结构调整的财税政策研究

目前,我国经济结构存在的问题主要表现在投资、消费和出口不平衡,三次产业及子产业结构不合理,收入分配结构不合理等。这些结构性问题互为因果,相互交织在一起。本文认为,短期内解决结构性问题的重要思路应当是调整收入分配、促进产业结构升级,充分发挥财税政策工具对解决上述问题的作用。     

关于缓解我国外汇收支顺差问题的政策思考

该文对外汇收支和结售汇的持续大额顺差进行思考和分析,指出其产生源于对外经济发展的结构性因素,因此要系统性地改善外汇收支失衡状况,需要海关、税务、商务部、人民银行和外汇局等多部门共同协调,治理、改善贸易进出口和外汇投资环境,理顺出口、投资和消费三者关系,致力于经济结构调整和发展方式转变。具体可从提高出口档次和引资门槛,以及疏通进口和个人境外投资渠道两方面着手。     

The use of a bankruptcy forecasting model to analyze corporate behavior in Israel

Most models used in predicting business failure actually rank the firms involved according to the probability of their financial distress Such ranking may also be used to explain patterns of corporate behavior and economic developments, as is shown in this paper Israeli manufacturing corporations are ranked here according to a multivanate index of risk based on five financial ratios that have been shown to successfully predict financial distress three years prior to the actual failure. Greater use of supplier credit and recourse to more than one bank are significantly linked to a higher degree of risk as measured by the index Extension of customer credit is conversely related to this risk status of the firm, while there does not seem to be a clear and significant relationship between such status and the growth in sales.     

探析中美贸易逆差的原因及影响

近年来,随着中美经贸关系的日益紧密,分析不断扩大的美中贸易逆差具有十分重要的意义.本文主要研究了美中贸易逆差的原因和影响,结构安排如下:首先交代了研究背景,通过一些数据介绍了美中贸易逆差的现状,指出研究此问题的必要性.第二部分,分别采用国际收支平衡原理和要素禀赋定理两种方法进行分析,得出美国的国内政策是造成美国经常项目赤字的主要原因的结论,同时指出了一些流行说法的纰漏之处.可以看到,在全球储蓄结构巨大失衡的情况下,单单通过削减美国财政赤字或通过人民币升值,都不能解决巨额美中贸易逆差.这一问题的解决需要中美双方的政策协调.     

Match your sales force structure to your business life cycle

Although companies devote considerable time and money to managing their sales forces, few focus much thought on how the structure of the sales force needs to change over the life cycle of a product or a business. However, the organization and goals of a sales operation have to evolve as businesses start up, grow, mature, and decline if a company wants to keep winning the race for customers. Specifically, firms must consider and alter four factors over time: the differing roles that internal salespeople and external selling partners should play, the size of the sales force, its degree of specialization, and how salespeople apportion their efforts among different customers, products, and activities. These variables are critical because they determine how quickly sales forces respond to market opportunities, they influence sales reps' performance, and they affect companies' revenues, costs, and profitability. In this article, the authors use timeseries data and cases to explain how, at each stage, firms can best tackle the relevant issues and get the most out of their sales forces. During start-up, smart companies focus on how big their sales staff should be and on whether they can depend upon selling partners. In the growth phase, they concentrate on getting the sales force's degree of specialization and size right. When businesses hit maturity, companies should better allocate existing resources and hire more general-purpose salespeople. Finally, as organizations go into decline, wise sales leaders reduce sales force size and use partners to keep the business afloat for as long as possible.     

A Note on the Earnings of Real Estate Salespersons and others in the Financial Services Industry

The earnings of females in various sales professions are less than their male counterparts. By expanding on the set of variables used by Jud and Winkler we were able to explain a large portion of this differential for most professions. Child rearing and marriage explain much of the differential in income in business sales outside of real estate. These variables fail to explain the remaining large gap in real estate sales, however.     

Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation

Why did the volatility of U.S. real GDP decline by more than the volatility of final sales with the Great Moderation in the mid‐1980s? One explanation is that firms shifted their inventory behavior toward a greater emphasis on production smoothing. We investigate the role of inventories in the Great Moderation by estimating an unobserved components model that identifies inventory and sales shocks and their propagation in the aggregate data. Our estimates provide no support for increased production smoothing. Instead, smaller transitory inventory shocks are responsible for the excess volatility reduction in output compared to sales. These shocks behave like informational errors related to production that must be set in advance and their reduction also helps explain the changed forecasting role of inventories since the mid‐1980s. Our findings provide an optimistic prognosis for a continuation of the Great Moderation, despite the dramatic movements in output during the recent economic crisis.     

台湾中国输出入银行之转型经验

子台湾在经历了成功的经济发展初期之后，为因应出口替代需要，以及持续扩大出口以巩固经济成长，开始以政策性金融之方式，补足一般私有金融未能充分发挥之功能。特别是关于出口产业方面，为提高长期融资之比重，政府在成立了中小企业银行后，依循世界各国对进出口金融之先例，在1979年由财政部100名出资，成立了“台湾中国输出入银行”。该行主要任务为配合政府经贸政策，提供金融服务，协助厂商拓展对外贸易与海外投资，并增进国际合作，以持续推动台湾经济稳定与发展。输出入银的转型，仍将扮演资金供给者角色，有助于其业务触角与利茎，提升知名度。     

Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns

This paper estimates hedge fund and mutual fund exposure to newly proposed measures of macroeconomic risk that are interpreted as measures of economic uncertainty. We find that the resulting uncertainty betas explain a significant proportion of the cross-sectional dispersion in hedge fund returns. However, the same is not true for mutual funds, for which there is no significant relationship. After controlling for a large set of fund characteristics and risk factors, the positive relation between uncertainty betas and future hedge fund returns remains economically and statistically significant. Hence, we argue that macroeconomic risk is a powerful determinant of cross-sectional differences in hedge fund returns.     

线上销售与未来股票收益

本文通过分析相关上市公司在电商平台的线上销售数据,发现线上销售增长可以预测未来股票收益。根据线上销售增长率构建投资组合可以获得月均1.27%的超额收益,经三因子、五因子模型调整后收益率分别为1.40%和1.35%,并且该超额收益在较长时间内不会逆转。横截面回归结果显示,线上销售增长与未来股票收益显著正相关,并在控制其他市场异象因子后仍然显著。此外,本文还发现线上销售数据的预测能力主要集中在投资者关注有限、线上销售占比高以及套利成本高的公司,其投资价值来源于对公司未来基本面信息的预测能力。进一步研究表明,同时利用线上销售指标和营业收入指标进行投资可以获得更高的超额收益。在考虑业绩预告和业绩快报对线上销售指标预测能力的潜在影响后,结果依然稳健。     

美国出口管制政策、对华出口管制及其发展趋势研判

出口管制政策是美国为保障国家安全、实现外交政策所采取的经济手段之一。美国出口管制政策的原则有国家安全原则、外交政策原则和短缺物质原则等,出口管制政策的措施主要有许可证审批、商品管制清单和国别分类组等内容。影响美国对华出口管制政策未来发展的因素众多,如中国经济崛起、台海局势及美国对华巨额贸易逆差等,短期内美国不太可能放松直至取消对华出口管制政策。美国对华出口管制政策既损害了美国自身经济贸易的发展,也损害了中国经济贸易的发展,其实质是一种经济帝国主义的表现。     

An Analysis of U.S. and Latin American Financial Accounting Ratios

Financial accounting ratios of non-U.S. companies are subject to misinterpretation by U.S. investors due to differences in accounting principles, institutional practices, and economic environments. The purpose of this study is to compare selected financial accounting ratios of companies from seven Latin American countries with those of a matched sample of U.S. companies, and explain any observed differences in the ratios based on the above three factors. In general, the results indicated that the liquidity, activity, and coverage ratios of the Latin American companies were lower than those of the U.S. companies. The profitability ratios varied, however, with the profit margin on sales generally higher for the Latin American companies, the return on assets mixed, and the return on equity ratios not significantly different between the Latin American and U.S. companies.     

The role of trust and social commitment in start-up financing

Access to finance is a perennial problem for business start-ups. This article advances the extant literature on the determinants of entrepreneurial finance by presenting a comprehensive analysis of the amount needed to start a business, the amount of self-investment and the number of external sources of financing utilized. Based on information from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2015, the empirical analysis shows that the availability of external sources of financing depend primarily on demographics, entrepreneurial experience, business features, e.g., export propensity and growth potential; and, on the phase of economic development. Furthermore, relatively high levels of social trust may increase the likelihood of obtaining external financing. The novelty of the product/service offered, financial barriers and investor/property rights protection in turn may also explain the proportion of self-investment provided to a new business. An analysis of financing options of socially-oriented businesses shows that they are more successful in obtaining financial support from private investors/venture capitalists and governments.     

Measuring the economic importance of exchange rate exposure

This paper re-examines the nature and the economic significance of the exchange rate to firm value relation using a database of non-financial firms from over 18 countries. Our main contribution is to apply a portfolio approach to investigate the economic importance of exposure. We find that firms with high international sales outperform those with no international sales during periods of large currency depreciations by 0.72% per month, whereas they underperform by 1.10% per month during periods of large currency appreciations. In contrast to the previous literature, our evidence shows that exchange rate movements can have an economically significant impact on firm value.