上证规模指数交叉相关性分析

以上证超大盘、中盘、小盘指数为研究样本,通过滑动窗口改进的MF-X-DFA分析不同规模指数间的交叉相关性.结果表明:滑窗改进方法可以有效减少传统方法局部趋势函数不连续造成的伪波动误差,避免关系的误判;各规模指数之间相关性存在多重分形特征且有长期记忆效应,大盘与它盘指数分形相关性复杂,中小盘间关系较规律.实证结果对投资者和机构构建投资组合选择具有现实意义.     

欧盟与湖北碳交易市场的互相关性——基于MF-X-DMA的研究

本文运用多重分形降趋势移动平均互相关分析法(MF-X-DMA)考察欧洲联盟碳交易市场与中国湖北碳交易市场之间的互相关性及其多重分形特征。通过实证研究发现,欧盟碳交易市场与湖北碳交易市场之间存在显著的互相关性且具有多重分形特征。同时,在市场出现剧烈波动时,两个碳交易市场之间的联动效应更为明显;湖北碳交易市场的多重分形特征显著,分形强度大于欧盟市场,且后者的自相关性不存在明显的多重分形特征。此外,以湖北碳交易市场为代表的中国新兴碳市场,市场成熟度不高,其涉及的短期相关性极易受到外部因素的影响。     

美元指数与有色金属价格相关性分析

美元指数与有色金属价格之间的反向关系在国内外股指评论中广泛运用,但较少有研究深入探究其相关性的内生机理。本研究通过对美元指数与有色金属价格历史表现的数量分析,在探究二者相关性的同时结合历史事件解释其内生机理,并基于分析结果对如何利用二者关系给出建议。     

从美元指数、黄金价格与原油价格关系看原油价格体制—微观数据及政策含义

本文以国际原油价格、黄金价格、美元指数为研究对象,运用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验对国际原油价格、黄金价格和美元指数三者之间的联动关系进行实证研究.揭示出原油价格和黄金价格、美元指数之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系以及黄金价格和美元指数之间不存在着长期均衡关系.     

黄金价格影响因素的实证分析

文章选取从1998年1月至2007年11月的国际黄金价格月平均价格为研究对象,以布伦特原油价格、三个月国库券二级市场利率、美元M2、美国CPI指数、标准普尔500指数和美元指数作为解释变量,通过比较建立OLS模型和基于国际黄金价格的异方差性的GARCH模型进行分析。结果表明布伦特原油价格、美国CPI指数和美元指数这三个变量对黄金价格的影响是最显著的,其他因素只在某一段时间内显著。     

美元指数与黄金价格之间相关性的实证研究

美元是外汇交换中的基础货币,也是国际支付和外汇交易中的主要货币,在各项交易中发挥着重要的作用,现在世界上的大多数大宗商品都是由美元计价.美元指数作为其总体表现强弱的衡量指标,每个市场参与者在考虑参与投资时,都不可忽视此因素.因此,本文通过选取1990-1999年每年3月份和2003-2012年每年3月份美元指数与黄金价格走势数据,综合运用了相关性分析、计量经济学回归模型等方法,实证研究了美元指数与黄金价格之间的相关性.通过深入研究美元指数和黄金价格之间的相关关系,类推我国国内的其他全球大宗商品价格与美元指数的相关性,从而有利于我国的对外投资并有效地规避投资风险.     

我国空气污染的区域发展趋势分析

工业化产生的环境污染,已经严重危及人们生活质量的提高。研究采用相关性分析和R/S分形方法,使用全国和东、中、西部地区1995-2011年期间的序列数据。首先,以能源消费总量为控制变量,对工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业固体废物排放量与国内生产总值之间进行相关性分析,找出环境污染的主要成分是工业废气排放。然后,着重分析全国和东、中、西部地区工业废气排放量的R/S分形轨迹。实证结果表明:它们的Hurst指数均介于0和5之间,说明其工业废气排放量的未来变化呈负相关性,但它们的分维值却不同,全国和中部地区距1.5较近,说明两者的反持续性较东、西部地区弱,今后中部地区所面临的环境压力将增大,应成为重点监控对象。     

中日黄金期货市场多重分形实证研究——基于OSW—MF—DFA方法

运用重叠平滑窗技术对广泛使用的多重分形去趋势波动分析（MF—DFA）进行改进,形成基于重叠平滑窗的多重分形去趋势波动分析（OSW—MF-DFA）方法。在此基础上,结合多重分形谱方法,对上海和东京的期金市场进行多重分形比较研究。结果表明,两市场均存在多重分形,且都是由日对数收益率序列的长程相关和厚尾概率分布引起。此外还发现,与上海期金市场相比,东京期金市场的分形强度更大,从而市场风险也更大,但其获利机会却与此不相匹配。     

人民币汇率波动与证券市场价格波动相关性的实证分析

文章尝试运用单位根、协整模型和向量自回归模型,对人民币汇率波动与证券市场价格波动的相关性进行实证分析。分析结果显示,无论从长期运行关系还是短期波动状况,人民币兑美元汇率与上证指数、A股指数之间存在显著的相关关系,而与B股指数之间则不存在显著的相关关系,而人民币兑欧元、日元汇率与上证指数、A股指数之间则不存在显著的相关关系。     

人民币汇率与股指的协整分析及因果检验

汇率与股票价格的关系在理论和实证中存在较大争议。本文运用JJ协整检验、格兰杰因果检验分析了我国沪深主要股指与美元兑人民币汇率之间的长期协整和因果关系。研究发现虽然汇率与股指之间存在长期的协整关系。在格兰杰因果检验中,美元汇率与A股指数和综合指数有双向因果关系,对沪市B股有单向因果关系,与深市B股没有相关关系。     

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between WTI crude oil price fluctuations and investor fear gauges

This article investigates the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil prices and fear gauges using cross-correlation statistic test and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis. The results show that the cross-correlations between crude oil prices and three different kinds of fear gauges are multifractal. By finding the ‘crossover’, we separate the three pairs of time series into the short term and long term, and find that cross-correlations of small fluctuations are persistent in the short and long terms, cross-correlations of large fluctuations are strongly anti-persistent in the short and long terms. The relationship is useful to profit in future markets.     

The relationship between agricultural commodity prices,crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis

This study examines the relationship between crude oil prices, US dollar exchange rates and 30 selected international agricultural prices and five international fertilizer prices in a panel framework. The study uses panel VAR methods and Granger causality tests on panel data sets of agricultural commodity prices (as well as specific agricultural commodity sub-groups) and fertilizer prices with monthly observations of the period from June 1983 to June 2013. The empirical results of the present study indicate that crude oil prices as well as US dollar exchange rates affect international agricultural commodity and fertilizer prices. Furthermore, contrary to the findings of several studies in the literature, the present study supports bidirectional panel causality effects between crude oil prices and international agricultural prices as well as between US exchange rates and international agricultural prices.     

Relationship between oil price and exchange rate by FDA and copula

This article investigates the relationship between daily crude oil prices and exchange rates. Functional data analysis is used to show the clustering pattern of exchange rates and oil prices over the time period through high dimensional visualizations. We select exchange rates for important currencies related to crude oil prices by using the objective Bayesian variable selection method. The selected sample data exhibits non-normal distribution with fat tails and skewness. Under the non-normality of the return series, we use copula functions that do not require to assume the bivariate normality to consider marginal distribution. In particular, our study applies the popular and powerful statistical methods such as Gaussian copula partial correlations and Gaussian copula marginal regression. We find evidence of significant dependence for all considered pairs, except for the Mexican peso-Brent. Our empirical results also show that the rise in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price returns is associated with a depreciation of the US dollar.     

Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach

In this paper, we use a wavelet approach to study the linear and nonlinear Granger causality between the real oil price and the real effective U.S. Dollar exchange rate. Instead of analyzing the time series at their original level, as it is usually done, we first decompose the two macroeconomic variables at various scales of resolution using wavelet decomposition and then we study the relationships among the decomposed series on a scale by scale basis. A major finding of this paper is that the linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the real oil price and the real effective U.S. Dollar exchange rate vary over frequency bands as it depends on the time scales. Indeed, there is a strong bidirectional causal relationship between the real oil price and the real dollar exchange rate for large time horizons, i.e. corresponding to fundamentalist traders, especially fund managers and institutional investors. But, for the first frequency band which corresponds to a class of traders whom investment horizon is about 3-months and whom trading is principally speculative (noise traders), the causality runs only from the real oil prices to real effective U.S dollar exchange rate.     

A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence

This paper studies the relationship between oil prices and US dollar exchange rates using wavelet multi-resolution analysis. We characterized the oil price–exchange rate relationship for different timescales in an attempt to disentangle the possible existence of contagion and interdependence during the global financial crisis and analyze possible lead and lag effects. For crude oil prices and a range of currencies, we show that oil prices and exchange rates were not dependent in the pre-crisis period; however, we did find evidence of contagion and negative dependence after the onset of the crisis. Additionally, we found that oil prices led exchange rates and vice versa in the crisis period but not in the pre-crisis period. These findings have important implications for risk management, monetary policies to control oil inflationary pressures and fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries.     

A dynamic econometric system for the real yen–dollar rate

This paper investigates the existence of theory-consistent cointegrating relationships between the real yen–dollar exchange rate and economic fundamentals in Japan and the US. After rigorous cointegration analysis, the paper constructs a data-congruent simultaneous equations system for the real yen–dollar rate. Multivariate cointegration analysis covering the post-Bretton Woods period reveals two long-run relationships which are consistent with macroeconomic theories: one is based on a condition of uncovered interest rate parity incorporating the Japanese current account balance, and the other on a structural balance-of-payments equation. Several topics in time series econometrics such as exogeneity are also discussed in the model construction. Finally, a parsimonious dynamic system centering on the real yen–dollar rate is presented as a set of equilibrium correction models conditional on weakly exogenous variables.      

尹朗局势的发展及中国对策

当前伊朗的紧张局势左右着国际原油价格的走势，并呈现剧烈震荡的格局。美国以怀疑伊朗试图发展核武器为由，不断对伊朗进行制裁，其真实目的是控制石油资源且石油必须以美元结算。俄罗斯是伊朗在中东地区的传统贸易伙伴，为了维护自己的利益，围绕“石油美元”这一焦点问题与美国产生了激烈的竞争和错综复杂的关系。中国作为一个爱好和平的国家应积极寻找各种对策以稳定伊朗局势。     

美元、石油和金属价格——基于VAR模型的实证研究

近年来,美元贬值以及石油价格上涨一直被认为是造成有色金属价格上涨的两个可能的原因。在这一背景下,笔者采用VAR模型分析了美元价值和石油价格变化对我国铜、黄金、白银等金属价格的冲击影响,以及在此冲击下三种金属价格间的相互影响关系。结果表明:美元价值以及黄金和白银二者之间的相互影响关系在很大程度上决定了我国黄金和白银的价格行为;而美元、石油、黄金以及白银价格的变化对于我国铜金属价格的冲击尽管是显著的,但是四者均不是铜金属价格上涨的主要原因。     

Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality,time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility

This article examines the nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying influence between crude oil prices and the US dollar (USD) exchange rate using the Hiemstra and Jones (HP) test, the Diks and Panchenko (DP) test and the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model. By applying the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm and the DCC-GARCH model, the effects of structural breaks in volatility of the two markets are also investigated. The empirical analysis indicates that, first, crude oil prices are the nonlinear Granger-cause of the USD exchange rate, but not vice versa. Second, the USD exchange rate exerts a stronger and more stable negative influence on crude oil prices in the short term, and the influence gradually weakens after 2012. Finally, ignoring structural breaks can increase the negative volatility correlation between the oil and USD exchange rate markets, which is particularly remarkable during the financial crisis.     

Possible Best Currency Basket Selection from the Perspective of Real Effective Exchange Rate

We calculated the real effective exchange rate indexes and measured their volatilities based on four currency baskets to find which currency basket is optimal for achieving China's policy target of keeping exchange rates stable. The volatility of the bilateral exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar is also calculated to make a comparative analysis. Results showed that the bilateral exchange rate of the RMB and the US dollar is only stable in special time periods. In most time periods, pegging to the G3 currency basket is optimal to achieve the goal of stabilizing exchange rates while pegging to the AMU currency basket will result in the most volatile exchange rates.