中国城市化与生态环境交互耦合测度研究

城市化系统与生态环境系统是城市经济发展的重要组成要素,二者之间有较复杂的交互作用关系。在全面把握城市化内涵的基础上,引入"PSR"模型构建城市化与生态环境耦合评价指标体系,通过构建耦合测度模型,对中国30个地区城市化与生态环境的耦合值进行量化测度,分析我国2004~2013年各地区城市化与生态环境耦合情况及时序特征。研究结果表明我国生态环境受城市化影响显著,呈现"S"型波动特征,模型结果显示我国城市化与生态环境耦合协调类型为基本协调,处于拮抗阶段向磨合阶段过渡期,我国暂时未实现高水平协调,说明我国城市化与生态环境二者仍有较大的提升空间,需要加强环保治理投资,促进二者向高水平协调方向演进,充分发挥城市化与生态环境良性融合作用。     

中国省域生态文明建设与城市化的耦合协调发展

基于生态文明建设与城市化的耦合机制,分别构建生态文明建设与城市化评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型及相对发展度模型,研究了2008、2010、2012和2014年中国省域生态文明建设与城市化的耦合协调发展关系。结果表明:1研究期内中国生态文明建设与城市化的耦合协调发展总体上处于磨合阶段,生态文明建设水平较城市化发展水平相对滞后。2从耦合协调度来看,生态文明建设与城市化的耦合协调发展阶段呈"两头窄、中间宽"的梭型态势;从相对发展度来看,生态文明建设较城市化的相对发展状态呈"倒三角"态势。3生态文明建设与城市化的耦合协调发展过程具有波动性,未来应注重提升生态文明建设与城市化发展质量,促进生态文明建设与城市化稳定协调发展。     

广西市域生态文明建设与城镇化耦合协调分析

以广西域内14市为评价单位,采用综合评价模型、耦合协调度模型和相对发展度模型对广西生态文明建设与城镇化水平进行全面评价,并测度它们之间的耦合协调状态。研究结果表明：（1）2010—2020年生态文明建设与城镇化建设水平提升均十分显著,但其协调发展不平衡、不充分。（2）耦合协调发展水平有较大提高。2010年广西14市均处于拮抗阶段,而2020年则有9个城市处于协调阶段,有5个城市处于磨合阶段。（3）广西生态文明建设总体上滞后于城市化。2010年广西12个城市生态文明建设超前于城市化,只有2个城市生态文明建设滞后于城市化。而到了2020年生态文明建设滞后的城市就达到了8个,仅剩1个城市生态文明建设超前。（4）2010—2020年广西各城市生态文明建设与城镇化耦合协调发展类型发生了巨大变化,由2010年的大量Ⅲ型、少量Ⅰ型,演变成2020年的5种类型即Ⅳ、Ⅴ、Ⅶ、Ⅷ、Ⅸ。     

生态文明建设评价方法研究——以昆明市为例

随着城市化和工业化的推进,人们对资源环境的依赖越来越大,资源消耗与污染排放规模不断扩大,生态环境问题日趋严重。为此,党的十八大报告明确指出,要把资源消耗、环境损害、生态效益纳入经济社会发展评价体系,建立体现生态文明要求的目标体系、考核办法、奖惩机制。基于生态文明建设内涵,构建生态文明建设评价指标体系;建立发展水平指数模型、系统协调度指数模型和绩效模型;并对昆明地区的生态文明建设进行系统性评价,为系统性评价区域生态文明建设提供理论依据和实证。     

海南城镇化与生态环境耦合协调发展分析

基于2005-2015年海南省城镇化水平和生态环境发展的数据,利用耦合协调度模型分析了海南省城镇化与生态环境耦合协调状态的演变过程,结果显示:海南省城镇化水平呈现不断上升趋势,但生态环境综合指数变化却出现波动,城镇化水平的提升快于生态环境质量的改善,海南省由城镇化滞后型转变为生态环境滞后型;城镇化与生态环境耦合协调关系从中度失调发展到初级协调发展阶段.海南今后的发展要更加注重环境保护,使城镇化与生态环境协调发展.     

城市创新能力与城市化水平的耦合协调分析——以山东省为例

以山东省17个地级市为例,借助耦合、协调模型对其城市创新能力与城市化水平的关系进行了分析,得到如下结论:1各个地级市的城市创新能力和城市化水平综合指数并未实现理想上的等同,以滞后型的发展状态为主。2山东省城市创新能力和城市化的耦合度总体水平较高,城市类型以中、高度耦合城市类型为主,且时间序列上表现出显著提升;在空间格局上,耦合度呈现明显的"中心—外围"分布趋势,表明了中心城市在城市创新能力与城市化耦合的发展上的辐射和带动作用。3山东省城市创新能力和城市化的协调度总体水平偏低,但时间序列上呈现提升的态势,总体状况趋于良性发展;协调度相对较高的城市沿胶济铁路成带状分布,以济南市和青岛市为核心和端点,以胶济铁路为界线,北部区域的协调度明显强于南部区域。     

关于提升城市综合承载力实现可持续发展研究——以广州市为例

随着城市化和工业化的推进,广州作为与北京、上海、深圳同类型的超大型城市规模不断扩大,出现了环境污染、生态破坏、人口增长过快、资源枯竭、交通拥堵等一系列问题.城市作为一个复杂的系统,要实现可持续发展意味着不仅要保证经济社会的进步,而且注重城市质量的提升,从而最终实现整个城市生态、经济、社会的协调可持续发展.因此笔者认为必须在城市综合承载力上寻找广州城市发展的合理途径,引导城市科学、持续、协调发展.目前政府关注重点更多的在于规划,而且立意在于广州市区范围内.笔者认为,作为珠三角城市群的中心城市,广州要以产业升级为抓手、为龙头、为引擎,着眼于整个珠三角城市群进行产业输出与布局及转型升级,提升城市综合承载力,实现城市的可持续发展.     

城市生态环境与旅游经济协调效应及动态关系——以曲靖为例

以曲靖市为研究案例地,构建评价两者协调发展的指标体系,借助综合功效函数和耦合协调度模型,对2006—2015年曲靖市生态环境与旅游经济协调指数进行测算,并采用VAR模型验证两者长期的动态关系。结果表明:①2006—2015年,曲靖市生态环境和旅游经济综合评价指数总体上均呈现增长态势,生态环境与旅游经济评价值由量变发生质变。②2006—2015年,曲靖市生态环境与旅游经济协调效应逐渐由弱转强,整体上呈现出良好发展势头;二者耦合协调阶段经历了"协调衰退阶段(2006—2008年)→协调过渡阶段(2009—2010年)→协调发展阶段(2011—2015年)"的演化轨迹,呈现趋向良性协调过渡的阶段性特征。③曲靖市生态环境与旅游经济均存在长期均衡,两者互为格兰杰原因,生态环境质量的稳定性同时受到自身内部结构和旅游经济的双重影响,旅游经济增长的稳定性前期在很大程度上依赖于其自身内部结构和生态环境的双重影响,后期旅游经济系统对生态环境系统的响应趋向平稳,生态环境对城市旅游发展的影响表现出持久性特征。     

生态城市的建设研究

城市己经成为人类最主要的生存空间,城市化体现了人类创造的又一次文明。当代城市随着城市化进程的日益加快、城市工业化程度的不断提高和城市人口的急剧增加,城市正在承受着越来越大的环境、资源、能源压力。"生态城市"理念的诞生,是治疗城市环境污染、市民幸福指数低落、资源能源紧张问题的良药,是可持续发展理念的重要表达,是我国未来城市发展必然选择。文章以"什么是生态城市?如何建设生态城市?"为中心议题,主要沿着三个点三条线一个面展开研究:生态城市的自然环境、社会环境、经济环境作为三个点相互连接形成一个平面,在这个平面上讨论如何实现城市社会生态的和谐。文章重点探讨了"生态城市"的概念、浅略性的规划思想以及寻求适合中国国情和生态环境发展的生态城市建设之路。     

重庆三峡库区“新四化”与生态环境耦合协调分析

在测度重庆三峡库区各区县"新四化"发展水平和生态环境质量指数的基础上,运用耦合度指数、协调度指数和相对发展指数,从库区整体和区县两个空间尺度以及2000、2005、2010和2015年4个时间节点对库区的"新四化"与生态环境耦合协调状况进行了研究。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年,重庆三峡库区"新四化"综合指数和生态环境质量指数整体上提升均比较明显,但"新四化"综合指数和生态环境质量指数高值都集中在主城及周边区县。(2)2000—2015年,重庆三峡库区整体尺度的"新四化"与生态环境耦合协调水平比较有限,相对发展指数处于"新四化"发展同步于生态环境状态。县域尺度的协调度指数平均值介于0.549~0.818,且库腹区县的波动幅度大于库尾区县;相对发展指数平均值介于0.461~1.174,其波动规律与协调度指数相反,即库尾区县的波动幅度大于库腹区县。(3)2000—2015年,重庆三峡库区协调度指数和相对发展指数在空间上呈现圈层扩散现象,基本形成了库尾高水平和库腹低水平的片状集聚区。(4)2000—2015年,重庆三峡库区"新四化"与生态环境耦合协调发展的阶段和类型都经历了从低层次型向高层次型的蜕变过程。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Solidified Branding Function: How the Urban Brand Affects a Small Town’s Development? Case Study of Wangqingtuo,Tianjin, China

Chinese small towns are usually developed with single core industry,and the urban brand is the identity of a town that formed with the development of its indust...     

Nonlinearity in Stock Exchange Markets: The Case of Bist 100 Indices

In this paper,using data for the Bist 100 index,we investigate the presence of nonlinearities by employing several nonlinearity tests.The Brock,Dechert,and Sche...     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.