工业机器人应用与劳动收入份额——来自中国工业企业的证据

提升劳动报酬在国民收入中的比重，是促进共同富裕的重要举措。在机器换人浪潮下，自动化技术对劳动收入份额的影响日益受到关注。本文将自动化技术纳入扩展理论框架，揭示了机器人应用对企业劳动收入份额的作用机制。基于2000—2013年中国工业企业数据库与中国海关数据库的匹配数据，从微观视角考察机器人应用对企业劳动收入份额的影响。研究发现：机器人应用会显著降低企业劳动收入份额，且在一系列稳健性检验后，结论依然成立。机器人应用通过资本-劳动替代效应、工资率效应和生产率效应导致劳动收入份额下降。异质性分析表明，机器人应用降低了大多数行业的企业劳动收入份额，尤其是食品制造业、印刷业等劳动密集型行业，非国有企业和沿海地区企业的劳动收入份额下降幅度更大。研究还发现，提高劳动力市场整合程度和劳动者议价能力，有助于缓解机器人应用对劳动收入份额的负面效应。本文研究有助于中国更好地应对机器人应用对劳动力市场形成的冲击，为实现高质量发展与共同富裕提供了重要的政策启示。     

提升总体劳动收入份额过程中的结构优化问题研究——基于产业与部门的视角

基于收入法GDP和资金流量表核算的劳动收入份额数据,本文在探讨劳动收入份额构成、波动性并进行结构分解的基础上,研究了总体劳动收入份额稳步提升中的结构优化问题。在提升总体劳动收入份额过程中,在保持产业(部门)结构相对稳定时要重视产业(部门)内部劳动收入份额的结构优化,在维持产业(部门)劳动收入份额相对稳定时要重视不同产业(部门)增加值比重提高过程中的产业(部门)结构优化;还要重视产业(部门)内部效应和产业(部门)结构效应的协同对稳步提升总体劳动收入份额的综合效应。在优化结构时稳定维持第一产业(企业部门)劳动收入份额和努力增加第三产业(住户部门)增加值占国民经济的比重对提升总体劳动收入份额至关重要。     

人工智能对全要素生产率的影响研究

人工智能作为新一代信息技术,成为提升全要素生产率的新动能。本文基于省级行政区的面板数据,采用空间自相关模型(SAR),实证检验人工智能对全要素生产率的影响效果。研究发现：(1)人工智能发展能够显著提升全要素生产率水平,但影响程度存在地区异质性,其对东部地区的促进效应明显高于中、西部地区;(2)人工智能对全要素生产率具有显著正向空间溢出效应,这种正向空间溢出会显著提升相邻地区全要素生产率;(3)机制识别发现,人力资本和产业结构升级是人工智能促进全要素生产率提升的重要机制。本文研究结论有助于更好地理解全要素生产率空间策略的外在驱动力,对实现产业转型升级和经济增长至关重要。     

竞争政策与企业劳动收入份额——基于《反垄断法》实施的准自然实验

在高质量发展中实现共同富裕应重视初次收入分配的效率与公平，而中国收入分配不平等现象依然存在。《反垄断法》作为竞争政策顶层设计的制度安排，将推动“有为政府”与“有效市场”更好结合，并对企业初次收入分配产生重要影响。本文构建理论模型，刻画竞争政策通过要素市场与产品市场影响劳动收入份额的内在机理，并利用《反垄断法》实施这一准自然实验，实证检验了竞争环境改善对企业劳动收入份额的影响。结果发现，《反垄断法》实施显著提升了高垄断企业的劳动收入份额，并且随着反垄断执法强度加大，其对高垄断企业劳动收入份额的提升作用愈加明显。机制分析表明，《反垄断法》实施对收入分配的影响主要通过要素市场上的要素组成效应与产品市场上的成本加成效应等途径来实现。进一步研究发现，《反垄断法》实施在提升资源配置效率、促进高质量发展的同时，提升了普通员工收入份额、缩小了企业内部收入差距，兼顾了共同富裕。本文研究丰富了《反垄断法》实施的政策效果评估相关文献，为国家达成高质量发展中实现共同富裕的战略目标提供政策启示。     

劳动报酬占比变动的产业结构调整效应分析

劳动者报酬GDP占比下滑是中国劳动收入增长背景下的客观事实。在农村剩余劳动供给相对充裕条件下,劳动报酬占比变化反映了产业结构变迁中的劳动边际产出效率变化。二元经济下的工业化及三次产业结构调整和升级过程中,资本替代劳动是劳动报酬产业内效应变化的主要原因,边际生产率决定的劳动工资引导劳动要素从劳动报酬较高的农业部门向非农业部门转移是劳动报酬占比产业间效应下降的原因。随人口自然增长率下降,劳动力绝对供给能力面临下降,农村剩余劳动力相对供给能力减弱,劳动供给曲线左移将替代劳动边际生产率对劳动报酬的决定,直接提升产业间劳动力转移成本并带动产业内劳动力报酬提升。     

人工智能技术对企业数字创新的影响研究北大核心

随着数字化和智能化技术的深入应用,人工智能成为新一轮科技革命和产业变革的重要驱动力。本文基于2010~2020年30个省(区、市)面板数据实证检验中国整体以及三大经济区域人工智能技术对企业数字创新的影响效应。研究结果发现:从国家整体视角,人工智能技术对企业数字创新具有显著促进作用;从区域视角,东部与中部地区人工智能技术能够显著提升企业数字创新发展水平,西部地区则不显著;从空间视角,人工智能技术不仅对本地区企业数字创新存在正向空间直接效应,还对其他区域企业数字创新存在正向的空间间接效应。对此,应制定发挥多方主体协同优势、增强区域联动效应、鼓励企业跨省域数字创新合作等举措,以更好发挥人工智能技术对企业数字创新的促进作用。     

略论劳动差异与劳动分配

改革的最终结果,是要通过利益分配关系的调整,促进社会不断进步。当前,国家在继续完善企业工资总额与企业经济效益挂钩分配办法的同时,在企业内部分配制度改革上,逐步推行了以岗位技能工资制为主要形式的内部分配制度。 岗位技能工资制从其基本内容和工作要求看,较以往企业内部实行的分配制度,能更加全面反映和体现出企业不同岗位和不同技能员工间的劳动分配差异。但从目前全国推行岗位技能工资制的实践看,岗位技能工资制本身存在着由于过分强调岗位差异和技能差异对分配差异的影响,而相对忽视了企业员工实际劳动差异在分配差异上的具体体现之不足。为此,本文从劳动差异评价角度出发,对这个问题作初步探讨。 一、劳动差异与劳动分配的基本关系 从企业的角度看,企业中员工的劳动收入,应是企业根据员工的劳动贡献所支付的劳动报     

我国制造业不同外包形式的就业效应研究——基于动态劳动需求模型的实证检验

本文测算了我国27个制造业细分产业的总外包水平、低技术外包水平、高技术外包水平和服务外包水平,并构建了我国制造业的动态劳动力需求模型,利用一步广义距估计(One Step Diff-GMM)法分析了制造业的总体外包、低技术外包、高技术外包和服务外包的就业效应,结论为:制造业总体外包、低技术外包和高技术外包对就业呈抑制作用;低技术外包和高技术外包水平相当,但低技术外包的就业净效应是高技术外包的将近二倍;而服务外包规模尚小,还不足以对就业产生影响。     

人工智能与中国企业参与全球价值链分工

人工智能是各国构筑核心竞争力的重要模块,更是关乎产业转型和价值链升级的主要抓手。本文使用International Robot Federation提供的机器人数据、中国海关数据库和中国工业企业数据库提供的企业数据构成了研究使用的高度细化的微观企业数据,在实证层面检验了人工智能对中国企业全球价值链参与的影响,数据跨度为2000—2013年。本文的主要结论是:①人工智能显著促进了中国企业参与全球价值链分工,且在多重稳健性检验和考虑工具变量的因果识别后仍然显著。②人工智能对中国企业全球价值链嵌入的影响目前主要集中在加工贸易企业。③2008年国际金融危机以后,人工智能对中国参与价值链的促进效应得到进一步释放。④人工智能对价值链参与的影响主要是通过两个渠道实现:一是替代从事低端环节生产的劳动力来降低企业成本;二是提高企业的生产率来增强企业的竞争力。⑤针对行业层面的数据分析发现,人工智能会显著促进行业的全球价值链位置提升。因此,在劳动力成本不断提高的现实情况下,重视创新发展,就是要抓住人工智能高速发展的契机,减少人工投入、提高企业的生产率,从而助力中国企业以更高水平融入全球价值链分工体系。     

分行业技术进步对就业的动态影响研究--基于中国34个工业行业1980～2011年的数据

基于1980～2011年中国34个工业行业的数据,本文运用VAR模型研究了分行业技术进步与就业之间的动态效应。结果表明：机械工业、交通运输、电气机械等、仪器仪表办公设备、家具制造等12个工业行业的技术进步在短期内显著的促进了劳动力就业,这种就业“创造效应”在中期逐渐减少,长期几乎无影响。而对于饮料行业、黑色金属矿采选业、电力蒸汽行业、石油加工这4个行业的技术进步则短期内显著地减少了劳动力需求,即产生了“破坏效应”,但这种效应到了中期以后开始转为“创造效应”,长期几乎无影响。政策启示在于：继续加强对中高技术和高技术产业的扶持力度;加强机械工业、交通运输等技术密集型行业所需的专科劳动力的培养;完善饮料、黑色金属采选业等劳动密集型行业的失业保障和再就业的培训体系。     

外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响

本文利用UNCTAD数据和中国人口普查微观数据,基于地区就业的行业结构和贸易对象国对中国征收的行业层面的进口关税,构建地区层面外部关税变动指标,研究外部关税变动对中国区域劳动力就业的影响。研究发现:(1)外部关税下降幅度越高的地区,总体就业、可贸易部门和不可贸易部门的就业增加也越多;(2)出口和内销规模扩张的就业创造效应、生产率提升的就业破坏效应,是外部关税下降影响地区可贸易部门就业的重要渠道;(3)外部关税下降带来的地区可贸易部门出口扩张、就业增加和工资上涨,通过产业关联和消费驱动等正向溢出效应增加地区不可贸易部门就业,通过就业的部门间再配置效应减少地区不可贸易部门就业;(4)外部关税下降对地区不可贸易部门就业的影响呈现出先抑制后促进的动态演进过程,这与外部关税变动下中国区域劳动力供给的调整紧密相关。此外,外部关税变动对地区不同属性劳动力就业的影响效果存在显著差异。本文的研究结论对于外部关税变动下稳定区域劳动力就业的相关政策制定具有一定的参考意义。     

U.S. Multinational Activity Abroad and U.S. Jobs: Substitutes or Complements?

Critics of globalization claim that firms are being driven by the prospects of cheaper labor and lower labor standards to shift employment abroad. Yet the evidence, beyond anecdotes, is slim. This paper reports stylized facts on the activities of U.S. multinationals at home and abroad for the years 1977 to 1999. We focus on firms in manufacturing and services, two sectors that have received extensive media attention for supposedly exporting jobs. Using firm‐level data collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Washington, D.C., we report correlations between U.S. multinational employment at home and abroad. Preliminary evidence based on the operations of these multinationals suggests that the sign of the correlation depends on the crucial distinction between affiliates in high‐income and low‐income countries. For affiliates in high‐income countries there is a positive correlation between jobs at home and abroad, suggesting that foreign employment of U.S. multinationals is complementary to domestic employment. For firms that operate in developing countries, employment has been cut in the United States, and affiliate employment has increased. To account for firm size, substitution across firms and entry and exit, we aggregate our data to the industry level. This exercise reveals that the observed “complementarity” between U.S. and foreign jobs has been driven largely by a contraction across all manufacturing sectors. It also reveals that foreign employment in developing countries has substituted for U.S. employment in several highly visible industries, including computers, electronics, and transportation. The fact that there were U.S. jobs lost to foreign affiliates in key sectors, despite broad complementarity in hiring and firing decisions between U.S. parents and their affiliates, helps explain why economists view the impact of globalization on U.S. jobs as benign despite negative news coverage for declining industries.     

Global value chains,large-scale farming,and poverty: Long-term effects in Senegal

This paper presents panel data evidence on the impact of expansion of global value chains and large-scale export-oriented farms in developing countries over almost a decade. We estimate the income effects of wage employment on large-scale farms in the horticultural export sector in Senegal, using data from two survey rounds covering a seven-years period of rapid expansion of the sector. We estimate average income effects as well as heterogeneous income effects, using fixed effects and quantile fixed effects regressions. We find that poverty and inequality reduced much faster in the research area than elsewhere in Senegal. Employment in the horticultural export sector is associated with higher household income and the income effect is strongest for the poorest households. Expansion of the horticultural export sector in Senegal has been particularly pro-poor through creating employment that is accessible and creates substantial income gains for the poorest half of the rural population. These pro-poor employment effects contrast with insights in the literature on increased inequality from rural wage employment.     

Labor productivity and employment gaps in Sub-Saharan Africa

Drawing on a new set of nationally representative, internationally comparable household surveys, this paper provides an overview of key features of structural transformation – labor allocation and labor productivity – in four African economies. New, micro-based measures of sector labor allocation and cross-sector productivity differentials describe the incentives households face when allocating their labor. These measures are similar to national accounts-based measures that are typically used to characterize structural change. However, because agricultural workers supply far fewer hours of labor per year than do workers in other sectors in all of the countries analyzed, productivity gaps shrink by half, on average, when expressed on a per-hour basis. Underlying the productivity gaps that are prominently reflected in national accounts data are large employment gaps, which call into question the productivity gains that laborers can achieve through structural transformation. Furthermore, agriculture’s continued relevance to structural change in Sub-Saharan Africa is highlighted by the strong linkages observed between rural non-farm activities and primary agricultural production.     

The Impact of Technological Change on Work and Wages

This review begins with a discussion of how technology affects wage structures. The literature reviewed is divided into two segments—studies of the impact of technological change on wages (and growing inequality), productivity, and employment and studies of the interrelationship of technology, human resource systems, and labor productivity. We conclude with suggestions for future research topics. Overall, we find that technological change accounts for only part of the changing wage structure in the United States, whereas changes in institutional forces that affect the creation of industry rents and the distribution of rents are also an important factor.     

参与生产分割对中国工业价值链及收入的影响研究

生产分割对一国价值链的提升和收入增长具有重要的促进作用,本文考察了参与生产国际分割对中国35个工业行业的价值链水平、收入增长以及投入要素的报酬收入的影响。结果表明:生产分割与贸易出口等指标对因变量具有显著效果,生产分割对技术部门的价值链促进作用所引起的差距比资本部门明显,生产分割使得技术部门、资本部门的收入增长差距均加大,另外生产分割也促进了高密集度资本投入要素的报酬收入增长,同时还拉开了高技术与低技术劳动力投入要素的报酬收入增长之间的差距。     

How information and communication technology drives (routine and non-routine) jobs: Structural path and decomposition analysis for China

A comprehensive exploration into the routine/non-routine job implications of information and communication technology (ICT) is crucial for tackling routine-replacing technological change challenges in the digital era. To this end, we propose an integrated input-output (IO) analytical framework to detangle the intertwined relations between ICT and non-ICT sectors, and further incorporate structural path analysis (SPA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to examine the extent to which and how ICT sub-sectors drive the formations and changes of embodied routine/non-routine jobs in ICT. An empirical study using China's national IO tables from World Input-Output Database and the matched occupational employment data derived from 2000 and 2010 Population Census is conducted. We find that China's ICT growth over 2000–2010 has not led to a decline in jobs, which still holds true for both ICT manufacturing and ICT service, as well as for routine/non-routine jobs. We also find an increase in the embodied employment share of non-routine relative to routine jobs. The typical paths “source sector → (intermediate sector) → ICT final demand” generate many routine/non-routine jobs, which are primarily lied in the zero and first rounds. The decomposition results show that the declining sectoral routine/non-routine job coefficients drives the decline of both ICT embodied routine and non-routine jobs (especially the former), which is completely offset by the rising final demand of ICT. The proposed integrated IO analytical framework could also be applied to other indicators and extended to multi-country/region analysis.     

供需结构优化、分配结构演化与2035年共同富裕目标展望

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,中国推动经济社会发展,归根结底是要实现全体人民共同富裕。新发展阶段下中国既要优化供需结构以加快构建新发展格局,又要改善分配结构以全面贯彻新发展理念,而供需结构优化与分配结构演化又是紧密关联的。本文建立了一个包含供给结构、需求结构和分配结构的多部门动态一般均衡模型,将分配结构演化分解到供给结构与需求结构转型上,提出了需求结构通过影响供给结构进而影响分配结构的理论机制。本文对近三十年全球四十余个经济体劳动收入份额和技能溢价的演化进行了发展核算,展示了中国分配结构演化的特征事实、供需动因与国际比较。研究发现,中国分配结构演化道路具有一定的特殊性:一方面,劳动收入份额转为上升,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的劳动密集型产业(消费品)的劳动密集程度;另一方面,技能溢价不断扩大,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的产业内部(消费品)的技能密集程度;供需结构转型在其中也发挥了重要作用。本文还基于历史趋势定量预测了未来中国分配结构的演化趋势,为实现2035年共同富裕目标提供了现实依据与政策参考。     

Getting a Good Job: Mobility in a Segmented Labor Market

This study examines the process by which men in three ethnic neighborhoods of Boston move from secondary to primary employment in a segmented labor market. Workers who successfully make this transition belong to neighborhood-based social groups that have customary linkages to particular primary jobs. Members of such groups costlessly learn how to perceive and act in the labor market in ways that faciliate their entry into the primary sector. Workers' labor market perceptions reflect objective characteristics of the primary jobs to which their social groups are linked.