我国会计确认的变动及其与债券信用评级的关系——基于2006年新会计准则的思考

企业债券信用评级是资信评级机构根据独立、公正、客观的原则．对面向社会公开发行债券筹资的发债人的整体信用状况进行综合分析．据此判断发债人届时偿付债务本息的能力．进而对其违约可能性进行科学评估。企业债券信用评级在较大程度上需要借助于对企业财务会计信息的分析和判断．特别是注册会计师的审计报告及上市公司公开的市场信息。     

信用评级对债券融资成本的影响

对2014—2018年在上海证券交易所发行的公司债券进行实证分析。研究表明：国内信用评级在债券市场上是具有信息含量的,即信用评级能够在发债企业和债券投资人之间传递出具有参考价值的信息,从而减少债券市场上的信息不对称;信用评级较高的企业比评级较低的企业的债券融资成本低,同时债券的评级也会影响债券的成本,即评级越高,债券的成本越低。     

信用评级长效机制的深层思考

尽管我国信用评级事业经过了近20年的成长磨砺，但是其现状反映出信用评级市场还是自我开垦与无序开发的处女地；评级机构的市场行为能力依然脆弱，还处于蹒跚学步的孩提时期；信用评级报告等评级产品大多仍是待嫁的女儿。究其原因，缺乏信用评级长效机制是根本[编者按]     

主权信用评级

一、主权信用评级概念 主权信用评级是信用评级机构进行的对一国政府作为债务人履行偿债责任的信用意愿与信用能力的评判。主权信用评级除了要对一个国家国内生产总值增长趋势、对外贸易、国际收支情况、外汇储备、外债总量及结构、财政收支、政策实施等影响国家偿还能力的因素进行分析外，还要对金融体制改革、国企改革、社会保障体制改革所造成的财政负担进行分析。最后进行评级。根据国际惯例．国家主权等级列为该国境内单位发行外币债券的评级上限．不得超过国家主权等级。     

穆迪下调美银行债券评级

9月21日，国际评级机构穆迪下调美国银行、花旗银行和富国银行的债券评级。将美国银行的长期债券信用评级由A2下调两档至Baa1，将其短期债券信用评级由P1下调一档至P2；将富国银行的长期债券信用评级由Aa3下调一档至A1；将花期银行短期债券信用评级由P1下调一档至P2。     

五大问题制约我国信用评级产业发展

产业安全是指一国自主产业的生存和发展不受威胁的状态。信用评级业是金融体系中特殊的中介服务,是控制资本市场走向的制高点,掌握着债券发行交易的定价权。信用评级产业安全,是维护国家金融安全的重要力量。当前,我国信用评级业正处于发展的转折时期,科学分析信用评级产业安全形势,是维护我国金融安全亟待解决的问题。     

后危机时代信用评级机构监管的再思考

信用评级在资本市场中扮演着重要的角色,为投资者进行投资决策提供信息,充当债券市场看门人,当风险状况恶化时通过降低信用等级为投资者警示信用风险。我国信用评级是在20世纪80年代顺应债券市场统一管理的需要建立起来,起步比较晚,信用评级监管制度不健全,对信用评级的规范运行至关重要的市场准入制度、利益冲突防范机制和信息披露制度都等都存在一定问题。结合我国实际,本文分析我国信用评级机构监管存在的问题,提出对信用评级机构监管的建议。     

信用评级对科技型中小企业融资的影响

在科技型中小企业的融资市场引入信用评级机构，考察是否能有效缓解科技型中小企业“融资难、融资贵”的难题。构建包含投资方、科技型中小企业、信用评级机构三方的博弈模型，求解一般均衡解。分析发现：一个优质企业占比较高的市场更容易吸引投资并获得较高的融资额度；随着市场中企业质量的逐步提升，投资方的投资意愿不会立即跟上企业质量上升的脚步，存在一定滞后；信用评级机构的人力投入可能成为限制市场出清的硬约束。     

现阶段推动外部信用评级有效途径分析——以山西为例

本文选取山西信用评级发展为案例．概述了山西省2005年以来开展信用评级的基本情况和发展趋势．结合笔者对信用评级监管的实践和体会,从借贷市场信用评级、国际国内政策环境和评级机构公信力和独立性等方面提出了自2008年金融危机以来山西省信用评级发展过程中存在的主要问题,通过对人民银行规范、推动和发展信用评级的必要性的阐述,提出了现阶段进一步推动山西省资信评级工作的思路、方法和手段。     

投资者异质信念下的信用债违约风险量化研究——基于我国信用债市场的应用

信用债违约不完全依赖于企业资产负债结构,投资者无从得知企业兑付意愿,且我国市场信息披露与违约追偿机制尚不完全,市场价格与外部评级反应延迟,投资者信息认知不同,因此对违约判断存在异质信念。针对提出了适用于我国市场的信用债违约风险模型,将Giesecke（2006）中关于企业违约阈值预期的均匀分布假设拓展到一般的Beta分布,通过Beta分布的方差刻画投资者异质信念的强度,并给出条件违约概率和信用价差的一般解析表达式。数值分析指出,投资者异质信念对短中期信用债影响较大,异质信念越高,信用利差越大;在接近违约时,异质信念会造成违约风险预期的低估。通过我国市场真实信用案例的实证检验,模型可以较早预警信用事件,且精度优于已有信用风险量化模型。     

纳税信用评级制度与企业创新——“赏善”比“罚恶”更有效？

前期研究证实纳税稽查、反避税等强制性税收征管可以规范企业纳税行为,对企业产生"约束效应",而不同于以往的强制性税收征管,纳税信用评级制度具有一定的激励性。由此,文章以2014年颁布实施的纳税信用评级制度刻画了激励性税收征管,基于这一新的视角,分析了激励性税收征管对企业创新投资的影响。利用2010-2017年沪深A股上市企业研发支出数据,文章采用PSM-DID模型估计了激励性税收征管对企业创新投资影响的"净效应"。结果表明,纳税信用评级制度实施后,纳税信用等级为A的企业,其创新投资显著增加,且这一效应在媒体关注程度低的企业、非国有企业及高新技术企业中更加明显。进一步的作用机制检验发现,激励性税收征管一方面通过增加信贷融资规模进而对企业的创新投资产生积极作用,另一方面通过增加市场关注压力进而对企业的创新投资带来负面影响,但由于积极作用要远大于负面影响,从而激励性税收征管表现出对企业创新投资的"激励效应"。     

Rating the UK: the British government's sovereign credit ratings, 1976–8

The UK received its first sovereign credit ratings in 1978. Despite having required financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund only 18 months earlier, the British government managed to secure ‘triple‐A’ ratings from both Standard and Poor's and Moody's. Both assessments of creditworthiness reflected improving economic conditions but also British efforts to influence the sovereign ratings process. The Bank of England and the Treasury sought guidance from American investment banks to prepare for the ratings process and then controlled the flow of information available to the rating agencies accordingly, stressing the strengths of the national economy and downplaying the weaknesses. The British government subsequently launched its first bond issue in the New York market to high levels of investor demand. Consideration of these achievements complements the historiography concerning Britain's economic fortunes in the late 1970s. Scrutiny of events also offers a rare glimpse into the confidential sovereign ratings process. Both agencies relied on a combination of quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the UK. In addition, this article highlights the existence of a unique period in the history of sovereign credit ratings. From 1974 to 1985, the ratings industry enjoyed a cautious revival focused principally on ‘triple‐A’ borrowers.     

Deciphering Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Credit Rating Disagreements

This study investigates the role of tax avoidance in the credit‐rating process and whether differences exist in how rating agencies account for the risk relevance of tax avoidance. Using a sample of initial credit ratings assigned to public debt issuances during 1994–2013, our evidence is consistent with Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's assessing the costs and benefits associated with tax avoidance differently from one another, resulting in more frequent and pronounced rating agency disagreement. Rating agency disagreement over tax avoidance is most evident when it is accompanied by relatively high levels of uncertain tax positions, foreign activities, research and development activities, or tax footnote opacity. We also find evidence that decreases (increases) in tax avoidance or tax footnote disclosure opacity are positively (negatively) associated with the convergence of split ratings. This suggests that firms can exacerbate or mitigate rating agency disagreement subsequent to bond issuance. Our study complements prior research by examining why sophisticated information intermediaries disagree about the risk relevance of tax avoidance. It also sheds light on how firms can influence rating agencies’ understanding of tax avoidance.     

信息不对称与债券担保——基于中国债券市场的检验

担保是解决债券市场上信息不对称的有效机制。逆向选择理论强调担保能够缓解事前信息不对称;道德风险理论则强调担保有助于解决事后信息不对称。两种理论对于债务人风险程度与采取担保的可能性、担保与债务利率之间的关系给出不同的预测。文章以2008-2015年间中国债券市场的实际数据为样本对以上两类理论进行实证检验。在解决可能存在的内生性问题后,研究发现,债券发行人风险越高,越有可能采取担保;在控制其它因素的情况下,相较于同一债券信用评级的无担保债券,担保债券具有较高的发行利差。研究结果表明道德风险理论能够很好地解释我国债券发行人的担保行为。     

Credit Ratings and CEO Risk‐Taking Incentives

This study examines the sophistication of rating agencies in incorporating managerial risk‐taking incentives into their credit risk evaluation. We measure risk‐taking incentives using two proxies: the sensitivity of managerial wealth to stock return volatility (vega) and the sensitivity of managerial wealth to stock price (delta). We find that rating agencies impound managerial risk‐taking incentives in their credit risk assessments. Assuming other things equal, a one standard deviation increase in vega (delta) will lead to an approximately one‐notch (two‐notch) rating downgrade. In addition, we evaluate the significance of credit ratings in the design of CEO compensation. Our findings suggest that rating‐troubled firms will gear down managerial incentives of risk seeking. In particular, other things equal, a rating downgrade to the lower edge of the investment category (i.e., BBB?) in the immediate prior year will bring about an approximately 51 percent reduction of vega incentive from options newly granted to the CEO in the current year. However, we find no evidence that firms' rating concerns significantly affect delta. Given the significance of credit ratings in the marketplace and their close connection to accounting, the findings of the current study advance our understanding, not only of how sophisticated rating agencies are in incorporating forward‐looking information (i.e., vega and delta) into risk assessments, but of how influential the raters are in changing firms' compensation policies. The findings also have implications on the role of accounting in constraining excessive managerial risk taking with improved disclosures on managerial compensation.     

美国信用评价机制发展及对中国基金评价机制的借鉴

信用评级业作为特殊的中介行业在中国有着广阔的发展空间,近年来中国也颁布了证券投资基金信用评价的相关规范,但仍然属于起步阶段,中国基金评价机制的构建还有很多不完善的地方。通过对美国信用评价机制发展的研究,结合中国基金评价市场的现实情况,可为中国基金评价机制的完善提供多角度的借鉴,促进中国信用评级业规范健康发展。     

论信用产权与保险公司信用评级

信用是保险公司经营的基础,而我国保险公司普遍存在信用缺失的现象,其最根本的原因在于信用产权不明确。信用评级制度可以有效地明确信用产权,促进保险公司的信用建设,提高整个市场的效率。因此,加快推进我国保险公司信用评级体系建设具有重要意义。     

Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China

We study the changing landscape of credit market guarantees by examining the risk-pricing of the Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) bonds, which have experienced rising defaults across provinces from a zero record. Using primary market bond issuance data, we identify a province premium that captures the perceived local government support for local SOEs. We find that on average the perceived local government support is on the decline, while the subnational debt market has become more segmented since 2018. This evidence is found to be closely related to the divergence in local government’s fiscal space and the occurrence of SOE default incidents in the area, highlighting the adverse linkage between public debt and corporate financing costs.