我国原油市场面临的内外风险分析及相关政策建议

原油作为关系国家经济命脉的战略资源,它是现代工业倚赖的原料,与人们衣食住行密不可分,其重要性不言而喻。随着我国经济不断发展,加之国家体量大,原油消费市场极为可观,而我国自身探明储量及产量都较低,在近两年国际贸易局势复杂多变的环境下,面临的内、外部风险较为严峻。本文对我国原油市场面临的风险进行相关梳理,为抵御风险提出建议,以供参考。     

Wen''s Report: No Difficulty Can Daunt China

On March 5, China's Premier Wen Jiabao delivered a government work report to the 3,000 or so National People's Congress (NPC) deputies and more than 2,000 members of the Chinese People's Political Consulta-tive Conference (CPPCC) National Committee.     

次贷危机后中国持有的美元资产风险与对策研究

我国的外汇储备大量集中于美元和美元资产,特别是美国国债。美国次贷危机爆发后,中国外汇储备中的美元资产管理面临着更加严峻的考验。根据我国目前的外汇储备资产现状,应制定有效的应对策略,加大对外直接投资与储备资产多元化管理;加快增加黄金储备;以债权换技术、以债权换战略资源,且藏汇于民,以加速缓解人民币升值的压力,遏止资产风险的产生。     

中国稀土保卫战

长期以来,全球主要依赖中国出口稀土,中国的稀土储量已开始大幅下降。中国不仅需要对稀土出口进行限制,更应尽快建立稀土战略资源储备制度,强化稀土资源保护,夺回国际定价权。     

Anti-Monopoly Law and Its Implications for Foreign Companies in China

On August 30 2007, after more than a decade of legislative efforts, the Standing Committee of the National People＇s Congress （NPC）, China＇s top legislature, completed its third official reading of the draft Anti-monopoly Law （AML） and formally adopted it as thecountry＇s first comprehensive competition law. The Anti-monopoly Law will become effective on 1 August 2008, to guard against monopolistic conduct, safeguard competition, improve economic efficiency, protect public and consumer interests, and promote the healthy development of the socialist market economy. After 13 years of debate, the final adoption of the AML marks an important step toward an effective competition regime in China＇s move toward a market economy. This article introduces the history of China＇s Anti-monopoly Law, summarizes some of its key provisions, highlights some of the major improvements on the June 2007 draft, and discusses the major implications for foreign companies doing business in China.     

我国外汇储备与CPI波动动态传导机制研究

文章构建IS-LM-BP模型并借助1994年1月～2008年6月(174个样本)月度时间序列数据,对我国物价波动及其传导机制进行实证研究。结果发现:外汇储备、进出口贸易和物价之间存在长期协整关系;短期和长期内货币供应量和外汇储备对物价波动均产生正向冲击;进出口贸易是物价波动的格兰杰原因,但外汇储备不是物价波动的格兰杰原因;脉冲响应证实进出口贸易和货币供应量短期内减缓物价波动,但是长期内对物价波动冲击效应显著,加剧物价波动。由此可见,在开放经济发展过程中,不能忽视物价波动的外部传导机制,内外经济问题都需要高度关注。     

对我国能源和能源贸易若干问题的再思考

本文认为,能源是能够产生能量的物质,作为一个总体概念,它属于劳动资料;能源贸易是能源交换和流通的总和,不包括人才、专有技术和机器设备在国际间的流动。我国的能源消费结构以煤炭为主,产生了严重的环境问题,影响了国家的可持续发展,但即使是以石油消费为主的国家也引发了不可持续发展的问题。随着商品短缺时代的结束和资源短缺时代的到来,这就需要我国统筹利用国内、国外两种能源,实现可持续发展。     

Oil Companies and Human Rights

The chairman of Amnesty International's UK Business Group considers how oil companies must change their attitudes in a world which is changing faster. "Silence or inaction will be seen to provide comfort to oppression and may be adjudged complicity." Sir Geoffrey Chandler CBE is a former senior executive of the Royal/Dutch Shell Group and architect of Shell's first Statement of General Business Principles. This article is reprinted with permission from Oxford Energy Forum , November 1, 1997.     

China Stimuli Package to Boost the Two ＂Pillar Industries＂

After China issued a RMB 4 trillion stimulus package, the central government and local governments sped up the formulation of plans related to the implementation of this big plan last November. On January 14, 2009, China＇s State Council unveiled plans for the auto and steel industry, put together by the National Development and Reform Commission in conjunction with other departments.     

Export Rebates on Grain Finished

A ccording to the State Statistics Bureau, China＇s consumer price index（CPI） jumped by 6.9 percent year-on-year last November, approaching the high levels seen at the end of 1996, one of the largest areas of increase was the price of grain, which rose by 6.6 percent.     

Two Sessions: Hopes Fill into Trades

March in Beijing doesn't only embrace the warm spring's coming, also the two parliamentary sessions of China, the national conference in the highest level of China's parliament and top political advisory body. This year's two sessions, namely, the 2nd Session of the 11th Na-tional People's Congress (NPC) and the 2nd Session of the 11th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) lasted from March 5 to 18, and March 3 to 14, respectively. It was the first NPC & CPPCC held since international financial crisis China strongly felt last September.     

The “Oil Crisis” — a crisis for LDCs

It is the group of LDCs whose reserves of indigenous energy are so small that they desperately need sizeable imports of oil, but which do not have sufficient other resources to earn the necessary foreign currency for their oil imports, that is suffering most under the economic changes which came over the world economy as a sequel to the oil crisis. Its future destiny is now literally a difficult balancing on “a knife’s edge”.     

中国通货膨胀影响因素的实证分析——基于VAR模型的研究

通货膨胀已经影响到我国经济的稳健发展,文章对2003年1月至2011年3月间的我国外汇储备、狭义货币供应量、准货币与CPI四个指标进行了实证分析,旨在找到影响我国通货膨胀的因素。首先进行ADF检验,然后建立VAR向量自回归模型并进行协整检验,从而得出以下结论:外汇储备、狭义货币供应量、准货币与CPI之间存在长期的均衡关系,其中准货币增长对通货膨胀起反方向作用。据此,对抑制我国通货膨胀和保持经济平稳发展提出政策建议。     

出口退税政策调整对我国石材贸易的影响和对策——基于2007年数据的分析

2007年,我国的石材储量居世界首位,且石材生产加工能力及出口总量和总额已跃居世界第一。经过20年的发展,我国已成为世界首屈一指的石材生产大国、使用大国和出口国,被誉为世界石材的"加工厂"。这20年间,石材行业作为我国的朝阳产业,正以年均20%的速度高速发展着,大大超越了我国GDP的增长速度。据海关总署最新统计数据显示,2007年我国石材出口超过了34亿美元,连续两年名列世界第一。然而,2006年9月和2007年6月,国家先后对部分石材产品取消出口退税和调低出口退税率,给我国石材业带来了巨大的压力和挑战。出口退税政策的影响已于2007年我国石材进出口数据中呈现。本文将根据2007年我国石材产品进出口统计数据,分析出口退税政策对我国石材贸易的影响,并提出相应的对策建议。     

我国石油对外贸易流量分析与对策研究

石油是关系国家经济安全的重要战略物资,本文通过对我国石油进出口贸易一些流量指标的分析,发现:(1)石油净进口量过大,进口依存度偏高,并有逐年递增的趋势;(2)原油进口的地区集中度偏高,不利于石油资源供应稳定;(3)国际油价持续高企,对国内经济稳定造成威胁。并据此提出了相关政策建议。     

Impact of a Middle East Oil Export Disruption

Two ways that oil exports from the Middle East can be disrupted in the current political climate are sanctions on Iran and Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz. In considering the impact that these actions might have on the United States and other oil importers, it is important to consider such factors as characteristics of the blocked oil, how other exporters might react, and the possible release by importers of strategic reserves. The paper also provides some historical perspective on how past supply disruptions were resolved.     

RMB Appreciation in 2008

At the beginning of 2007, both foreign investment banks and domestic commercial banks all thought that last year＇s RMB appreciation would grow between 4 to 5 percent; however the realization of a 6.77 percent increase has surprised everyone. The RMB has appreciated much faster than expected, keeping pace with the rise of China＇s foreign trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves.     

Vertical integration by oil-exporting countries

Intereconomics - Most oil-producing countries have now nationalised their oil reserves and are pursuing their own pricing and marketing policies; in recent years some of them have attempted to...     

Goals： New-Energy ＆Low-Carbon

The founding conference of World Federation of Chinese Medicine Societies-Special Committee of Medicated Diet ＆ Dietotherapy （WFCMS-SCMDAD）, and the first world medicated diet and life nurturing academic seminar was held in the Great Hall of the People, Beijing, China, on August 11. A total of 400 experts and professors on medicated diet and life nurturing from 17 countries and regions including Japan, ROK, U.S., Canada, U.K., ect. Honorary President Professor Cai Guangxian delivered a welcoming speech to declare the organization＇s found.     

高新区升级能否提升制造业企业TFP?

提升制造业企业全要素生产率对中国实体经济高质量发展至关重要。研究使用国家统计局的全国创新调查企业数据库数据，构建多期双重差分模型研究省级高新区升级对制造业企业TFP的影响和机制。主要发现：第一，省级高新区升级后，制造业企业TFP平均增加约5.20%；第二，产业集聚效应和企业减税效应是省级高新区升级提升制造业企业TFP水平的重要机制；第三，相对于低效率的制造业企业，省级高新区升级对中、高效率制造业企业TFP的促进效应更加突出。政府可借助“以升代建”的国家级高新区发展战略推动中国制造业高质量发展。