财政分权影响地区经济增长的结构突变效应检验

本文利用1979~2009年中国省级面板数据,通过建立面板数据的门限效应模型,检验了财政分权对经济增长的影响。研究发现我国的财政分权对经济增长存在明显的结构突变效应。财政分权对低经济发展水平的省份起阻碍作用,对中等经济发展水平的省份有一定的拉动作用,而对于经济发展水平较高的省份有着较强的拉动作用。因此,应根据不同地区的经济发展水平制定相应的财政政策,以促进经济增长。     

西部自然资源对东西部经济增长的贡献——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

运用加入自然资源的CD生产函数和省际面板数据估计了西部各省自然资源的开发利用对本地区经济增长的贡献率,并以此为基础分析了西部自然资源对东部经济增长的贡献。得出结论,西部省份自然资源的开发利用对本地区经济增长的贡献率普遍偏低,而西部自然资源对东部经济增长的贡献接近或者超过8%。政策建议是需要建立东部对西部自然资源利用的补偿机制。     

省际贸易对中国经济增长的贡献研究

研究目标：考察省际贸易对经济增长的贡献。研究方法：区分结构影响与部门影响的因素分解模型。研究发现：第一,消费对中国经济增长的贡献比重在下降;省际调出因素和出口因素的贡献比重在上升。第二,1987年,省际调出仅在3个省份是经济增长的第一贡献因素;2007年,省际调出则在11个省份成为经济增长的第一贡献因素。第三,从省份视角看,尽管出口对经济增长的贡献比重在上升,但在2007年,省际调出贡献比重仍然是出口贡献比重的3.5倍;从部门视角看,省际调出的贡献比重也依然大于出口的贡献比重。第四,在将因素贡献比重变化的来源区分为结构影响与部门影响之后,不管是消费贡献比重的下降,还是省际调出和出口贡献比重的上升,部门影响均发挥着主导作用。研究创新：将省际贸易引入关于经济增长的因素分解模型。研究价值：对于目前步入“新常态”的中国经济,省际贸易可以成为未来中国经济新的增长点。     

异质性的技术俱乐部与中国地区工业增长——基于潜类别随机前沿模型的研究

本文利用中国1999~2007年30个省份工业的面板数据,以各省份的人力资本水平、对外开放程度作为类别的条件变量,通过建立潜类别随机前沿模型,考虑技术俱乐部的异质性,从而分析了我国的工业经济增长过程。结果表明,我国30个省份存在两个技术俱乐部,使用不同的技术前沿,生产函数存在巨大差异,并且俱乐部A的技术效率高于俱乐部B。技术进步是各省份工业产出变化最重要的决定因素,且B俱乐部要高于A俱乐部。投入变动起着很重要的作用,而效率变化的作用却非常小。     

中国区域资本配置效率及区域资本形成影响因素的实证分析

本文构建了32组包含中国各行业近11万个数据的大型面板数据集,分行业系统测算了我国各区域的资本配置效率,并对区域和省际资本形成影响因素进行了系统的比较分析。研究发现:从短期来看,我国各地区的资本形成更加依赖于金融机构贷款的支持;绝大多数省份的资本形成存在自我约束、收敛的机制;不同省份间金融要素对固定资本形成的影响存在较大差异,说明我国地区之间存在一定程度的资本流动障碍。     

技术效率对中国经济增长作用模式的探索--基于DEA和统计回归结合的两阶段方法

文章基于1999年~2010年的中国省际面板数据,采用Arnold等人提出的将DEA和标准的统计回归结合的方法区分有效和无效省份,在统计上无损自由度的前提下估计出代表各自水平的生产技术,探索技术效率对中国经济增长的作用模式即用技术效率区分出来的有效和无效省份,在经济增长表现上的不同。结果表明：有效省份比无效省份有着更高的资本利用率,同时表明对于中国经济而言,就业问题仍很严峻。结论反映出：中国经济增长的质量水平仍处于比较低的状态,距包容性增长的要求还有一定距离。     

关于能源利用效率影响因素的实证分析

文章利用分省面板数据,实证分析经济增长、产业结构、国际贸易等因素对能源利用效率的影响。通过建立经济模型,深入探讨了经济增长等因素对能源利用效率产生影响的机制。得出了经济增长、科技投入和国际贸易能够提高能源利用效率,而工业化水平的提高会降低能源利用效率的结论。     

中国各省份要素相对价格多锥形均衡及影响因素分析

本文利用不变替代弹性(CES)生产函数,在考虑到地区间生产技术差异和要素质量差异条件下,建立了要素相对价格均等化理论的检验框架。并使用中国1995年和2004年各省份工业细分行业截面数据,对中国省份间要素相对价格是否相等进行了实证检验。检验结果表明,要素相对价格均等化理论在中国并不成立,各省份间要素相对价格存在多锥形均衡。进一步,利用1995~2006年各省份面板数据构建Panel Date模型,对要素相对价格变动的影响因素进行分析,理论和实证分析结果均显示,人均资本存量、产业结构、经济体制改革、教育水平和基础设施等因素对各省份要素相对价格均具有不同程度的显著影响。     

交通基础设施投资对经济增长推动作用研究——基于中国省级面板数据分析

本文依据生产函数模型和我国1994-2007年度30个省级地区(重庆市包含在四川省内)面板数据分析交通基础设施投资对我国各省份经济增长推动作用,得出在规模报酬不变条件下,我国各省份交通基础设施投资产出系数,进而得出经济越发达地区,交通基础设施投资对于经济增长贡献越大的结论。     

企业家精神与中国经济增长——基于系统广义矩估计

企业家精神是经济增长的重要因素。文章通过利用包含企业家精神变量的经济增长模型,将私营部门雇佣比率和自我雇佣比率分别作为企业家精神的度量指标,使用1990-2010年中国省际面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法进行了实证检验。结果表明,在控制了人口变量和制度变量后,企业家精神对中国各省区的经济增长有显著的正面影响。因此,政府应为个人和企业的创业及其竞争提供更好的软硬环境,进一步促进经济发展。     

Impact of Islamic banking development and major macroeconomic variables on economic growth for Islamic countries: Evidence from panel smooth transition models

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development, major macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Islamic countries. Using the panel smooth transition model, the results show a positive nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development and economic growth. Moreover, the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and economic growth is asymmetric and regime-dependent. Further, by using the dynamic panel quantile model, we show that for many cases the Islamic banking variables lead economic growth across the quantiles. More specifically, foreign direct investment, oil production and inflation have a positive impact on economic growth during the normal financial development state, while government consumption, one-lag economic growth, terms of trade and financial development have a negative impact on economic growth for this state. The human capital index, education and the rule of law have an insignificant impact, regardless of the prevailing regime. The results for the separated oil-importing and oil-exporting economies are generally consistent with the combined sample regarding the Islamic banking development variables. As for the macro variables, they have a positive and significant (insignificant) effect on EG for the oil-importing (oil-exporting) economies for almost all models.     

产品内国际分工的内在动因——理论模型与基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

产品内国际分工的出现,将国与国之间基于比较优势地分工从"完整"的产品,贯彻到产品内部的工序和流程,从而极大地改变了全球经济运行方式。本文通过在传统国际分工理论中加入交易成本变量的方法,拓展了李嘉图模型,从而将传统贸易理论拓展到产品内国际分工的动因分析中,并通过中国省际面板数据的计量分析进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,产品内国际分工的完整动因应当是以比较优势的差异为基础,以交易成本的降低为条件。     

Does digital service trade boost technological innovation?: International evidence

Digital technology is profoundly changing the international economic and trade pattern, and digital service trade is increasingly becoming an important carrier of transnational knowledge spillover. This study investigates the relationship between digital service trade and technological innovation. Based on the panel data of 131 countries from 2005 to 2020, empirical results show that digital service trade significantly promotes technological innovation. This study shows that digital service trade can promote technological innovation through four mechanisms: increasing income incentives, accelerating knowledge spillover, triggering trade liberalization, and promoting financial deepening. The results of panel threshold model show that economic development, urbanization, and population aging can lead to regime changes in the innovation effect of digital service trade. In addition, the results of heterogeneity test show that national characteristics such as economic development, per capita income, industrialization, and economic freedom, influence the innovation effect of digital service trade. Our findings have implications for developing an international innovation cooperation system based on digital service trade.     

保险业发展与经济增长的多重均衡

本文在拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯框架下构建了保险业发展影响经济增长的理论模型,模型显示保险业发展与经济增长之间存在门槛效应和多重均衡现象,在保险业发达情形下,经济增长和保险业发展相互促进,保险业不发达情形中经济增长存在低水平陷阱。在理论分析的基础上,以寿险业为例,运用中国各省市1999~2010年的面板数据,通过面板数据门槛回归估计的结果显示：寿险业发展可以促进经济增长;随着人均GDP和保险密度进入更高的区制,寿险业发展对经济增长的促进作用显著提高;当相对寿险深度跨越更高的门槛值后,寿险业促进经济增长的程度降低。     

Financial innovation and the boundaries of banking

The paper analyzes the interaction of the process of international innovation and the structure of the international banking sector. The advent of new instruments of financing resulted in the growth of disintermediation. This created pressure for the liberalization of banking with the resulting international competition. The banking sector in the USA is fragmented, and offers a widely differing range of services. Innovation has resulted in a change in structure, a reshuffling of participants and a consolidation of financial centers.     

The impact of foreign trade issues on economic growth in some developing countries including Iran and Turkey

The issue of foreign trade and economic growth have been on the economic agenda for centuries. Foreign trade is a facilitator of goods and services exchange in the global marketplace and is an engine of economic growth in a country. Moreover, economic growth is a means to improve the output, employment opportunities, and welfare, which in turn could make a favorable impact on the positive foreign trade balance. Economic growth is also an essential component of country competitiveness in international markets. Yet, the objective of this study is to analyze the correlation between foreign trade and economic growth in some developing countries, including Iran and Turkey, by using econometrics applications (panel co-integration method and E-views software), also resting on credible national and international publications. Thus, it is estimated in the study that foreign trade has a positive impact on economic growth, resource allocation, energy and green energy consumption, human capital development, and physical capital consumption.     

Financial openness and Chinese regional growth imbalance: New insight from spatial spillovers

This paper uses spatial panel methods and Chinese provincial data from 2003 to 2017 to study the spatial spillovers of financial openness on economic growth. The results show, first, a positive direct effect and an overall negative spatial spillover of financial openness on provincial growth. Second, there are two spatial spillover channels: a positive growth externality and a harmful resource competition among provinces. Third, we estimate the state dependence and dynamics of spatial spillover, and find that the negative spatial spillover is smaller in provinces with high levels of financial openness and in the long term; thus, the negative spatial spillover declined over time. These results are robust to the choice of SDM and GNS spatial econometrics methods and under different spatial weight matrices.     

中国银行业绩高增长背后的风险因素分析

本文首先用一个简单的垄断竞争模型分析了各种因素对银行业绩的影响,然后用面板回归分析模 型对具有代表性的14家银行进行了回归分析,揭示了银行利润与各种因素的关系。分析表明,规模扩张和利差是中国银行利润增长决定因素,不良贷款率和存贷比对银行利润有负面作用,但利率、法定准备金率等变量与利润的关系与静态理论的预测相反,表明货币政策操作往往是顺周期的,对货币政策的滞后效应估计不足,需要加强对经济周期规律性研究,提高货币政策的前瞻性。本文还分析了当前经济增长结构性减速、利率市场化给银行带来的可能影响,从道德风险、国内外利差和汇率波动角度分析了银行和宏观经济面临的风险。     

Regional Disparities in Japanese Banking Performance

This paper investigates whether technical inefficiency in production in the Japanese banking industry exhibits regional disparities by using the stochastic frontier model and data from the fiscal year 1999. First, we find evidence of regional disparities in technical inefficiency. Second, we find that regional disparities in technical inefficiency explain some of the disparities in regional income growth. Recent collapse of the regional banking systems in Japan was responsible for regional economic slumps. Third, we find that strong competition among banks and educational improvement by banks lead to improvements in banking performance. Finally, we find that the Merger Promotion Act currently in operation in Japan undermines recovery policies for regional banking.     

The short and long-run impact of globalization if firms differ in factor input ratios

Empirical evidence has shown that exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters. Based on this evidence, I construct a two-factor general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity in factor intensities, monopolistic competition, scale economies and international trade. This setting can explain several empirical regularities on international trade, factor market competition, factor relocations and factor returns: (i) exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters, regardless of a country's relative factor endowments; (ii) finite supply of capital limits a country's export activities; (iii) trade liberalization increases the relative return to capital; (iv) new profit opportunities in export markets change the distribution of firms towards the more capital intensive ones. Finally, I extend the setting to endogenous capital accumulation and show that trade liberalization induces economic growth and, in the long-run, benefits all factors in real terms.