Big data from dynamic pricing: A smart approach to tourism demand forecasting

Suppliers of tourist services continuously generate big data on ask prices. We suggest using this information, in the form of a price index, to forecast the occupation rates for virtually any time-space frame, provided that there are a sufficient number of decision makers “sharing” their pricing strategies on the web. Our approach guarantees great transparency and replicability, as big data from OTAs do not depend on search interfaces and can facilitate intelligent interactions between the territory and its inhabitants, thus providing a starting point for a smart decision-making process. We show that it is possible to obtain a noticeable increase in the forecasting performance by including the proposed leading indicator (price index) into the set of explanatory variables, even with very simple model specifications. Our findings offer a new research direction in the field of tourism demand forecasting leveraging on big data from the supply side.     

产品定价的排队博弈分析

产品定价是企业经营决策的重要内容之一,利用排队博弈的方法分析企业定价策略是最近几年发展起来的一种新思想。本文研究了在双寡头竞争的市场条件下,企业产品最优定价的排队博弈模型,分析了产品价格与成本、质量和交易等待成本之间的关系,推导出最优定价策略的纳什均衡解。最后给出了一家企业的产品最优定价实例。     

基于B-S模型的房地产延迟开发研究

B-S模型是实物期权中的一种重要定价模型。在考虑土地闲置费的基础上,将修正后的B-S模型应用于房地产的延迟开发研究中,以评价房地产开发项目是否适合于延迟开发以及何时开发。借助B-S定价模型来分析房地产开发项目,决定投资与否以及何时投资,可以使决策者有更多的选择权,为其提供一个更全面的视野。     

Bracing for demand shocks: An experimental investigation

We investigate inventory ordering decisions when decision makers anticipated a demand shock. Decision makers anticipating an event have been shown to brace for an uncertain negative outcome by overestimating the likelihood of that event. Decision makers faced with a spike in demand may incur increased holding costs because they may brace, exhibiting a judgment bias, and consequently a decision bias by over-ordering inventory. Three studies span conditions of uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of a demand shock: Employing three between-subjects experiments, Study 1 investigates behavior when decision makers were faced with uncertainty in timing and in magnitude of demand at the most elemental level, manipulating holding and stock out costs. The three experimental tasks feature uncertainty about the magnitude of demand (Experiment 1.1), uncertainty about the timing of demand (Experiment 1.2), and uncertainty about both the magnitude and timing of demand (Experiment 1.3). Study 2 uses a dynamic, multi-period replenishment task and a between-subjects manipulation regarding the uncertainty of timing and magnitude of a demand shock. Study 3 also employs a multi-period decision environment, but compares behavior under a demand shock condition with that in a condition featuring only random variability. The collective results from the three studies identify a bias toward over-ordering in response to a demand shock, relative to the optimal orders. The between-subjects manipulations in Study 2 points toward a possible remedy as we found that providing information concerning the timing and magnitude of a shock ameliorated the bias. The primary revelation was that decision makers had more difficulty dealing with uncertain timing than with uncertain magnitude of demand. One implication is that it is particularly critical for retailers to carefully plan and manage how they share information with upstream supply chain partners regarding when they plan to introduce store-level promotions.     

不完全信息投标报价模型

考虑现实竞标过程中投标方彼此成本信息不对称及未来市场的不确定性。利用模糊数刻画竞标方彼此成本信息不对称,并用线性风险损失刻画竞标方面临的失标风险及赢者诅咒风险,构造信息不完全背景下竞标方报价模型。通过数据模拟分析通胀风险因子对竞标方报价及期望效用的影响,得到以下结论:通胀风险因子的存在会致使竞标方报价高于传统报价,且竞标方报价与通胀风险因子呈正比;竞标方的期望效用则由于通胀风险因子相应降低,与通胀风险因子呈负相关。     

An experimental study of signaling in auctions with a flexible reserve price

This paper presents the results of an experimental study of preemptive jump bidding in English auctions with a flexible reserve price. While one of the possible explanations for jump bidding is based on signaling arguments, the ability of the seller to adjust his decision to accept an offer based on the bidding history makes the existence of a signaling equilibrium questionable. This paper shows that the seller's ability to set the reserve price after observing the opening bid reduces both jump bidding behavior and the use and interpretation of opening bids as a signaling device.     

Evidence of sophisticated voting in a committee setting: theory and experiments

This article seeks to use laboratory experimental methods in order to investigate the extent to which decision makers employ sophisticated voting strategies. Using two experimental settings that provide very different incentives for sophisticated voting behavior, the analysis turns up little evidence that participants rely on perfect foresight when confronting lengthy voting agendas. However, these experimental results point toward members using a weaker version of sophistication when anticipating complex decision settings. The findings from this article suggest that decision makers employ only limited foresight when choosing among voting strategies.     

再造成本不确定性对再造投资的效应分析

本文在一定假设条件下,对进行产品制造和再造混合生产的垄断制造商建立两期模型,研究再造成本的不确定性对制造商再造投资和最优决策的影响效应。研究表明,在某些条件下,再造成本不确定性对再造投资具有一定促进作用。制造商可以根据自身条件,适当选择再造投资,文章也为其再造投资决策提供了依据。     

Adjusting for the environment in DEA: A comparison of alternative models based on empirical data

Due to the existence of free software and pedagogical guides, the use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been further democratized in recent years. Nowadays, it is quite usual for practitioners and decision makers with no or little knowledge in operational research to run their own efficiency analysis. Within DEA, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. Four alternative models, each user-friendly and easily accessible to practitioners and decision makers, are performed using empirical data of 90 primary schools in the State of Geneva, Switzerland. Results show that the majority of alternative models deliver divergent results. From a political and a managerial standpoint, these diverging results could lead to potentially ineffective decisions. As no consensus emerges on the best model to use, practitioners and decision makers may be tempted to select the model that is right for them, in other words, the model that best reflects their own preferences. Further studies should investigate how an appropriate multi-criteria decision analysis method could help decision makers to select the right model.     

Making tough choices: A policy capturing approach to evaluating the tradeoffs in sustainable supplier development initiatives

This research explores the tradeoffs that decision makers are willing to make when implementing development initiatives to improve supplier sustainability performance. We employ a policy capturing methodology in which respondents are forced to choose between multiple potential sustainable supplier development initiatives. Data were collected from traditional and executive MBA students. The results suggest that when confronted with tradeoffs, decision makers value improvements in supplier cost savings and injury reduction equally, which was somewhat unexpected. Further, both improvements in supplier cost savings and injury reduction were valued over supplier emissions performance. Because we measure individual tradeoff preferences, multi-level regression analysis was used to better understand the impact of respondent value structure regarding sustainably developing suppliers. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of tradeoff preferences for decision makers as they pertain to sustainable supplier development. As the pressure to ensure supply chain sustainability increases, more firms will engage in sustainable supplier development. The outcomes of the choices they make when choosing between initiatives, and how managers make these choices, will be of increasing interest in both industry and academia. This research answers previous calls for further examination of decision maker tradeoff preferences in sustainable supply chain development.     

清单计价模式下招投标阶段工程造价之控制

随着工程量清单计价模式下招投标制度的推行,招投标阶段对工程建设造价控制的作用也随之凸显出来;针对建设各方对招投标阶段工程造价控制的认识偏差,以招投标对工程造价的影响为出发点,指出了招投标过程中造价控制的关键点及相关风险,并给出了相应的防范和控制措施。     

Fitting the mould: the role of employer perceptions in immigrant recruitment decision-making

Human capital theory presumes that skill-accredited immigrant professionals can access positions in the labour market to match their skills and qualifications. It implies that employers have little power to influence the labour market outcomes of immigrant professionals. Using social identity theory, we examine the influence of similarity effect in recruitment decision-making involving immigrant information technology (IT) professionals in New South Wales, Australia. We assess how decision makers (N = 331) hiring IT professionals need to associate and identify with people that resemble themselves in some way more than those that do not, can influence their perception of the immigrant candidate's fit into their organisation. Particularly, we examine how the level of exposure to diversity, the decision maker's origin and the diversity of clientele can moderate the assessment of the candidate's fit to the organisation. We also assess how attire, name, accent and any overtly expressed religious affiliations influence employer perceptions. The findings indicate decision makers with lower levels of exposure to diversity or working in organisations with mostly Anglo clients tend to be more concerned of the fit regarding the Indians, South-east Asians and the Chinese. They were also more likely to be negatively influenced by the non-Anglo personal attributes.     

The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision-Making

Abstract.  This paper surveys the research on the influence of investor feelings on equity pricing and also develops a theoretical basis with which to understand the emerging findings of this area. The theoretical basis is developed with reference to research in the fields of economic psychology and decision-making . Recent advancements in understanding how feelings affect the general decision-making of individuals, especially under conditions of risk and uncertainty [e.g. Loewenstein et al . (2001). Psychological Bulletin 127: 267–286], are covered by the review. The theoretical basis is applied to analyze the existing research on investor feelings [e.g. Kamstra et al . (2000). American Economic Review (forthcoming); Hirshleifer and Shumway (2003). Journal of Finance 58 (3): 1009–1032]. This research can be broadly described as investigating whether variations in feelings that are widely experienced by people influence investor decision-making and, consequently, lead to predictable patterns in equity pricing. The paper concludes by suggesting a number of directions for future empirical and theoretical research.     

基于成本差异的物流服务提供商动态博弈分析

文章通过建立存在成本差异的Hotelling模型，结合效用和反应函数对两厂商的定价选址策略进行分析，研究表明处于成本劣势的厂商一般会选择最小差异化的策略．而拥有成本优势的厂商则会在最小差异化和最大差异化原则之间进行权衡取舍，目的都是为了实现利润最大化或损失最小化。     

Decision making in the beer game and supply chain performance

The beer game has been used to emphasize, investigate, and analyze supply chain inefficiencies as well as the effect of decision makers’ biases. This paper investigates the short- and long-run performance in the beer distribution game by analyzing Sterman’s (Manag Sci 35(3): 321–339, 1989) model that simulates decision-making. In this model, the system may have chaotic behavior depending on the heuristics used by decision makers. We investigate how quickly the system reaches a steady state (if at all). It is known that ignoring supply line (outstanding orders) leads to the bullwhip effect in experimental research. Among other results, we show that the short-term performance of a supply chain is not a predictor of the long-term performance even when decision makers fully recognize outstanding orders. Results of the simulation and practical implications are discussed.     

Optimal Two‐part Pricing under Cost Uncertainty

This paper examines the optimal two‐part pricing under cost uncertainty. We consider a risk‐averse monopolistic firm that is subject to a cost shock to its constant marginal cost of production. The firm uses two‐part pricing to sell its output to a continuum of heterogeneous consumers. We show that the global and marginal effects of risk aversion on the firm's optimal two‐part pricing are to raise the unit price and lower the fixed payment. We further show that an increase in the fixed cost of production induces the firm to raise (lower) the unit price and lower (raise) the fixed payment under decreasing (increasing) absolute risk aversion. The firm's optimal two‐part pricing is unaffected by changes in the fixed cost under constant absolute risk aversion. Finally, we show that a mean‐preserving spread increase in cost uncertainty induces the firm to raise the unit price and lower the fixed payment under either decreasing or constant absolute risk aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于行动导向的高管团队运行机制研究

高管团队是企业的核心决策主体,关系到企业的可持续发展。高管团队运行机制的研究应该将人口统计特征与团队过程相结合,通过建立行动导向决策模型,指出团队认知是高管团队行动的基础;团队调适是高管团队决策的重要保障;高管团队成员经过决策参与、方案议定、决策执行及决策评估完成决策过程。     

全过程造价管理实施对建设项目造价管理控制的影响分析

当前,随着我国城市化建设进程的进一步加快,带动了建筑行业的迅猛发展,与此同时,也使得市场竞争更加激烈。在此背景下,建筑企业如何加强建设项目造价管理,合理配置以及利用有限的资源,在不降低建设标准、质量、规模的基础上,进一步控制建设成本,节约资金,提高企业的经济效益,是当前企业亟待解决的问题。论文主要从全过程造价管理的角度探讨建设项目造价管理控制,分析项目决策、设计、招投标、施工以及竣工阶段造价控制的要点,并提出相应的管理控制措施。     

DECISION-MAKING IN CONDITIONS OF EXTREME UNCERTAINTY

In the last few years management has been forced to take decisions in conditions of extreme uncertainty. One consequence of this has been an increase in the use of formal methods of analysis in major decision problems. This paper describes some observations on how companies were handling decision-making under uncertainty, made during a S.S.R.C. sponsored research project on the influence of computer methods in planning and decision-making, viz.

• 1 Managers were consciously handling uncertainty by evaluating their major decisions in the light of several possible alternative forecasts.
• 2 Statistical decision theory was not used because, though in theory it was ideally suited for this situation, in practice management had the following objections to the use of this technique: (a) It assumed an accuracy of subjective probability estimates which was unrealistic in real life. (b) It required the use of artificial criteria of choice which were totally unacceptable to senior management. (c) It over-simplified the decision-making process.
• 3 In the thirty-two companies visited, management was using a systems analysis approach to decision-making involving the use of decision trees to structure the decision. Thereafter, instead of carrying out a probalistic analysis, a full evaluation to determine the quantitative and qualitative results would be carried out for each feasible path though the tree. This would be followed by an iterative elimination process.
• 4 Management were also endeavouring to cope with uncertainty by being more adaptive and flexible in their decision-making and are developing contingency or ‘fall-back’ strategies. Plans were not looked on as rigid blue-prints, but more as loosely linked frameworks of decision trees with the actual path through the decision tree dependent on future events.

     

Maximizing bidder surplus in simultaneous online art auctions via dynamic forecasting

This paper presents a novel intelligent bidding system, called SOABER (Simultaneous Online Auction BiddER), which monitors simultaneous online auctions of high-value fine art items. It supports decision-making by maximizing bidders’ surpluses and their chances of winning an auction. One key element of the system is a dynamic forecasting model, which incorporates information about the speed of an auction’s price movement, as well as the level of competition both within and across auctions. Other elements include a wallet estimator, which gauges the bidders’ willingness to pay, and a bid strategizer, which embeds the forecasting model into a fully automated decision system. We illustrate the performance of our intelligent bidding system on an authentic dataset of online art auctions for Indian contemporary art. We compare our system with several simpler ad-hoc approaches, and find it to be more effective in terms of both the extracted surplus and the resulting winning percentage.