科技人才政策的阶段性特征——基于浙江省“九五”到“十二五”的政策文本分析

以"九五"时期以来浙江省颁布的119份科技人才政策为研究样本,采用"政策年度"、"适用对象"、"政策类别"和"政策文种"四维度对政策文本进行计量分析。研究发现,不同时期浙江省科技人才政策与该时期的浙江省经济和社会发展战略导向密切相关,但是政策有明显的阶段性特征,其连续性和稳定性亟待提高;有关人才评价、人才激励以及人才保障类型的政策需进一步完善;已颁布政策有较强规范性和约束性,而指导性与可操作性不强。     

海外高层次人才创新创业政策研究:政策工具与创新创业过程视角

在全球人才流动加速的知识经济时代，中央和地方政府相继颁布了一系列鼓励海外高层次人才创新创业的政策。通过构建政策工具—创新创业过程二维框架，以浙江省“九五”至“十三五”期间颁布的海外人才政策为研究对象，采用内容分析法和扎根理论编码进行统计分析。研究发现：浙江省海外高层次人才政策数量增长迅速，从“十五”至“十三五”开局之年政策数量呈明显上升趋势;政策发文主体较多，但协调性较弱，浙江省财政厅是重要联合发文主体;从政策工具维度而言，供给类和环境类政策过溢、需求类政策偏少;创新创业准备阶段缺乏环境型政策，起步阶段缺乏供给型政策，发展阶段缺乏需求型政策。最后，提出优化海外高层次人才政策的对策建议。     

浙江省科技人才集聚的政策效应

通过现场访谈和问卷调查收集数据,对浙江省现有人才政策对科技人才集聚的影响进行了实证分析。结果显示:人才安全政策、人才激励政策、人才选拔和使用政策以及人才评价政策属于"强势影响政策";人才吸引政策、人才流动政策和人才培养政策属于"中势影响政策"。最后提出了浙江省进一步有效实现区域人才集聚的政策建议。     

武汉市科技人才政策效果仿真分析

制定和实施科技人才政策是武汉市引进、培养和使用科技人才的主要基础,研究各类科技人才政策执行效果可以为相关政策的制定提供借鉴。阐述了武汉市科技人才政策的总体框架和发展趋势,提出了武汉市科技人才政策的“引进-培养-使用”三维度模型,通过建立系统动力学仿真模型,对各类科技人才政策执行效果进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明,人才数量、人才质量、成果总量和科技收益等都会由于科技人才政策的执行而提高,但是,各政策的具体执行对最终结果的影响力度有差别。另外,促进科技成果转化为实际科技收益的政策也很重要。     

主要发达国家科技人才开发政策综述

发达国家一直是科技人才聚集地,凭借其优秀的科研环境和教育制度成为世界科技人才向往之地。在人才战争愈打愈烈的背景下,美国、日本、德国、法国、英国等发达国家不仅出台措施加大了对科技人才的吸引,并且更加注重通过科学奖励、产学研合作、国际交流等方式,加强本国科技人才的培养与开发,其科教人才开发政策出现侧重对青年人才、独创性人才、面向产业需求的人才及国际化人才的培养趋势。通过研究世界主要发达国家科技人才开发的政策与措施,揭示其科技人才开发的趋势及特点,以期为我国科技人才开发提供借鉴。     

我国改革开放40年来科技人才政策演变、趋势与展望——基于共词分析法

回顾与总结改革开放40年以来我国科技人才政策发展,对指导未来科技人才工作具有重要意义。采取定性和定量相结合方法,对1978—2017年我国科技人才政策进行文献计量和共词分析,梳理和探究我国科技人才政策的整体状况、发展过程及趋势。从纵向时间维度和横向国家级各部门政策文件内容两个方面,将我国科技人才政策发展分为恢复调整、深入改革、战略导向及创新发展4个时期,分析了我国科技人才政策变迁历程中的特点及各阶段政策关键词,基于政策目标、政策客体、政策工具等探讨了我国科技人才政策变化趋势,并展望了未来科技人才政策发展走向。     

我国改革开放40年来科技人才政策演变、趋势与展望

回顾与总结改革开放40年以来我国科技人才政策发展，对指导未来科技人才工作具有重要意义。采取定性和定量相结合方法，对1978-2017年我国科技人才政策进行文献计量和共词分析，梳理和探究我国科技人才政策的整体状况、发展过程及趋势。从纵向时间维度和横向国家级各部门政策文件内容两个方面，将我国科技人才政策发展分为恢复调整、深入改革、战略导向及创新发展4个时期，分析了我国科技人才政策变迁历程中的特点及各阶段政策关键词，基于政策目标、政策客体、政策工具等探讨了我国科技人才政策变化趋势，并展望了未来科技人才政策发展走向。     

台湾延揽科技人才的措施

科技人力资源的规划与运用是科技发展的核心,高品质的人才与技术市场是科学技术研究开发的要素。近十几年来台湾的产业结构已向高科技产业发展,致使部分相关科技人力有所不足。为此,台湾先后于 1983年和 1995年研订了“加强培育及延揽高科技人才方案”、“加强运用高科技人才方案”,并于 1998年 12月修订了“科技人才培训及运用方案”,有计划地延揽海外高科技人才回岛服务。　　台湾为提升基础研究及应用科学研究水准,积极延揽岛内外在学术或技术上具特殊造诣之高科技人才,制定的相关补助办法如下：　　1.补助延揽科技人才处理要点…     

科技人才向企业集聚模式与政策需求分析

现代市场经济中，技术创新能力是决定企业竞争力与竞争优势的重要因素，而科技人才是企业创新能力提升的关键因素。在企业科技人才存有量不能满足企业现实需求的情况下，存在着推动科技人才向企业集聚的必要性。本研究通过开展理论研究和实证分析，深入剖析科技人才向企业集聚的典型模式及在这些集聚模式中所需的政策支持，以期为企业科技人才队伍建设提供经验借鉴，为政府人才政策的制定提供政策依据与支持。     

改革开放30年我国科技人才战略与政策演变

研究了改革开放30年来中国科技人才战略与政策的演变历程。按照时间段的划分,中国科技人才战略与政策可分为3个阶段:1978—1991年,提出"尊重知识,尊重人才"的重要指导方针;1992—2001年,科技人事制度改革日益深化;2002年至目前,实施人才强国战略阶段。描述了每个阶段的背景、主要政策特点以及演变原因。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Simulating the Effect of Regulatory Systems in a Fishery, An Application to the French Driftnet Albacore Fleet

With a thin economic component, most bio-economic models of fisheries failto assess the effects of the regulation systems on firms. In order to analysethe short term consequences of different management schemes, a simulationmodel is applied to the French driftnet albacore fleet: licence allocation withdriftnet regulation, individual quotas, and individual transferable quotaswithout any input control. Vessel technology is estimated by using the datacollected, and groups of vessels are distinguished according to criteria ofperformance. We present the adjustment within firms and between groupsunder different scenarios (limited entry with and without driftnetregulation, individual quotas and individual transferable quotas allocation),and we compare their results in terms of quasi-rent value and otherindicators such as hake harvests or dolphin by-catches.     

Knowledge as a Path-Dependence Process

By following a new approach proposed by Cognitive and Neuroeconomics, this paper presents and extends that part of Hayek's theory concerning knowledge in path-dependent terms, and shows that this is a fertile theory, opening new lines of inquiry for contemporary economics. In his theory of knowledge Hayek shows that the dynamics of economic change is path-dependent, in a different and more profound way than in the rest of the path-dependent literature. This literature deals with an important controversy, which will be also discussed and its specific and original meaning will be highlighted. As it will emerge, knowledge as a path-dependent process is consistent with cognitive theories of perception and learning and it plays a more important role than is traditionally assumed. Path-dependence is in fact always present in the cognitive dimension of perception and in individual decision-making processes, as well as in the processes of organizational innovation, and even in the macro-dimension of institutional change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.