变革型领导对个体当责行为的影响机理——一个有中介的调节效应模型

利用来自325个有效调查样本的数据,遵循中介效应和调节效应检验流程,采用层级回归法考察变革型领导对下属个体当责行为的影响,并检验组织心理所有权的中介效应和主动性人格的调节效应.研究结论如下：变革型领导对下属个体当责行为有显著的正向影响;组织心理所有权在变革型领导与下属个体当责行为之间起部分中介作用;主动性人格正向调节变革型领导与组织心理所有权的关系,即下属的主动性人格倾向越高,变革型领导对下属组织心理所有权的影响越大.     

我创新因为我是主人翁:心理所有权对创新行为影响机制的被调节中介研究

以华南地区40个制造型企业的529名员工为样本,通过构建被调节的中介模型,分析心理所有权对创新行为的影响以及该影响的具体作用机理。研究发现:心理所有权对创新行为存在显著正向影响;义务感知在心理所有权对创新行为的影响过程中具有显著中介作用;工作压力在义务感知对创新行为的影响过程中具有显著负向调节作用;工作压力对整个中介模型具有显著负向调节作用。     

不同领导风格、知识积累与组织双元性创新：能力柔性的调节作用

基于领导理论、组织学习理论和组织动态能力理论,研究变革型、交易型领导对探索性创新和应用性创新的影响,引入知识积累、能力柔性,考察其在两者间的中介作用和调节作用。层次回归分析结果表明：变革型领导对组织探索性创新具有显著正向影响,交易型领导则对应用性创新具有显著正向影响;知识积累在不同领导风格与双元性创新间起中介作用。其中,知识积累在变革型领导与探索性创新间起完全中介作用,而在交易型领导与应用性创新间起部分中介作用;最后,能力柔性在不同领导风格与双元性创新间具有调节效应。     

知识员工创新失败学习仅靠领导包容足够吗?——一个被调节的中介模型

知识员工在创新工作中的失败学习具有高价值和高阻力特征,领导的积极引导和员工自身素养是促进失败学习的良方。基于关系型领导理论和经验学习理论,引入心理资本作为中介变量,以批判性思维作为调节变量,构建被调节的中介模型,探讨包容型领导对知识员工失败学习的影响机制。对368名知识员工的样本数据进行实证分析发现:包容型领导正向影响知识员工失败学习,心理资本在该过程中起部分中介作用;批判性思维正向调节心理资本与知识员工失败学习的关系,包容型领导通过心理资本影响知识员工失败学习的间接效应。     

组织心理所有权如何影响知识隐藏行为——公民疲劳与变革型领导的作用

员工知识分享行为已经引起学术界足够重视，但对工作场所中知识隐藏行为尚缺乏深入了解。基于社会交换理论、资源保存理论，利用306名智力型企业知识员工一手数据，构建了一个带有调节的双重中介模型，检验了组织心理所有权对知识隐藏的影响机制，包括组织公民行为和公民疲劳的中介作用及变革型领导的调节效应。结果表明：组织心理所有权负向预测知识隐藏行为；组织公民行为与公民疲劳在组织心理所有权与知识隐藏之间起显著中介作用；变革型领导正向调节组织心理所有权对组织公民行为的影响，并调节组织公民行为在组织心理所有权与知识隐藏之间的中介作用，该中介作用在变革型领导水平高时更强，在变革型领导水平低时相对较弱。研究结论不仅可以丰富知识隐藏、公民疲劳等理论，还可以为企业知识管理实践提供有效参考。     

组织心理所有权如何影响知识隐藏行为——公民疲劳与变革型领导的作用

员工知识分享行为已经引起学术界足够重视，但对工作场所中知识隐藏行为尚缺乏深入了解。基于社会交换理论、资源保存理论，利用306名智力型企业知识员工一手数据，构建了一个带有调节的双重中介模型，检验了组织心理所有权对知识隐藏的影响机制，包括组织公民行为和公民疲劳的中介作用及变革型领导的调节效应。结果表明：组织心理所有权负向预测知识隐藏行为；组织公民行为与公民疲劳在组织心理所有权与知识隐藏之间起显著中介作用；变革型领导正向调节组织心理所有权对组织公民行为的影响，并调节组织公民行为在组织心理所有权与知识隐藏之间的中介作用，该中介作用在变革型领导水平高时更强，在变革型领导水平低时相对较弱。研究结论不仅可以丰富知识隐藏、公民疲劳等理论，还可以为企业知识管理实践提供有效参考。     

知识员工创新失败学习仅靠领导包容足够吗？

知识员工在创新工作中的失败学习具有高价值和高阻力特征，领导的积极引导和员工自身素养是促进失败学习的良方。基于关系型领导理论和经验学习理论，引入心理资本作为中介变量，以批判性思维作为调节变量，构建被调节的中介模型，探讨包容型领导对知识员工失败学习的影响机制。对368名知识员工的样本数据进行实证分析发现：包容型领导正向影响知识员工失败学习，心理资本在该过程中起部分中介作用；批判性思维正向调节心理资本与知识员工失败学习的关系，包容型领导通过心理资本影响知识员工失败学习的间接效应。     

授权型领导对员工建言行为的影响：心理所有权的中介作用

以221份领导-员工配对问卷为样本,从心理所有权的视角,研究了授权型领导对员工建言行为的影响及作用机制。结果发现：授权型领导通过心理所有权的中介作用正向影响员工建言行为,且组织心理所有权和工作心理所有权的中介作用不同,组织心理所有权在授权型领导对自身工作相关建言和非自身工作相关建言的影响中均有中介作用,而工作心理所有权只在授权型领导对员工自身工作相关建言的影响中有中介作用。研究结果丰富了授权型领导与建言行为的中介机制,为管理者提升员工组织和工作心理所有权、有效激发员工建言行为提供了重要的理论支持。     

差异化变革型领导对员工创新绩效的跨层次影响

基于社会信息加工理论，探讨差异化变革型领导对员工创新绩效的跨层次影响，尤其是员工心理安全感的中介作用及团队差错管理氛围的调节作用。采用配对式调查问卷，以74名领导和264名下属为样本，建立层级线性模型。结果发现:①团队一致性变革型领导对员工创新绩效具有显著正向影响，个体差异性变革型领导对员工创新绩效具有显著负向影响；②心理安全感分别在团队一致性变革型领导、个体差异性变革型领导与创新绩效间起部分中介作用；③团队差错管理氛围不仅正向调节团队一致性变革型领导与心理安全感间的正向关系，还正向调节个体差异性变革型领导与心理安全感间的负向关系。     

变革型领导对员工创新行为的影响机制:一个跨层次模型研究

以山东省两家高新技术企业251名员工为样本,以情感事件理论和计划行为理论为基础,运用结构方程模型（SEM）和多层线性模型（HLM）,验证了心理资本在变革型领导与员工创新行为间关系的中介作用以及团队情绪氛围对该关系的跨层次调节作用。结果表明：变革型领导与员工创新行为显著正相关;员工心理资本在变革型领导与员工创新行为关系中起完全中介作用;团队情绪氛围正向调节变革型领导对员工心理资本的影响,即团队情绪氛围水平越高,变革型领导与员工心理资本的正向关系越强。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.