管理者过度自信与信用融资效应的实证研究

本文从行为公司金融视角出发，以沪深两市2002—2007年期间A股上市公司为样本，考察了过度自信管理者在利用供应商提供的信用融资后经营负债杠杆对公司创值能力与成长性的影响。研究结果发现，随着管理者过度自信程度的增强，公司的经营负债杠杆效应显著降低，即管理者过度自信公司运用信用融资发挥经营负债杠杆的创值效应与成长效应均显著低于一般管理者公司。     

负债融资、财务杠杆和产品市场竞争关系实证研究

在指出负债融资产生财务杠杆效应的同时，又会导致企业产品市场竞争的压力，企业应该在财务杠杆效应和产品的市场竞争之间权衡才能确定合理的负债比例。在此基础上，选取了沪、深两地上市的117个公司作为研究对象，研究结果表明：中国上市公司财务杠杆效用应用不够合理，并针对性地提出对策。     

上市公司财务杠杆的运用对其经营效益的影响分析——以ZJ公司为例

负债筹资具有综合资本成本低,筹资风险相对低,有利于上市公司发挥杠杆作用,实现提高经营效益的目标.本文明确财务杠杆的内涵作用和影响因素,以ZJ公司为例,分析上市公司运用财务杠杆对收益的影响,在保证经营安全的基础上,结合行业特征,提出利用品牌和渠道优势,适度运用零息负债的高财务杠杆,重视现金流入,降低筹资成本,提高投资报酬率等改进建议.     

新形势下债务风险相关问题剖析

企业负债经营可产生“财务杠杆效应”和“抵税作用”，提高权益资本利润率。文章通过分析财务杠杆原理，论述了企业在负债经营过程中应该兼顾财务杠杆效应和债务风险，正确把握负债的量与度。保持合理的债务结构，并加强营运资金的管理，使企业在考虑风险与报酬的基础上实现企业价值最大化的目标。     

提升我国农业上市公司财务质量的对策

目前我国农业上市公司财务管理上存在一些不足，主要表现在资本规模偏小，收益较低，债务结构不合理，负债能力偏低等方面，为提升我国农业上市公司财务质量，建议从强化公司财务质量重要性的认识力度，加强公司体制与机制的改革，加强主经营业务力度，发展多元化经营体系，打造核心竞争力等方面入手，以促进我国农业上市公司健康持续发展。     

对上市公司融资顺序逆向选择的思考

自20世纪50年代初期马科维茨的投资组合理论诞生，到50年代末60年代初M-M资本结构理论，自梅耶斯优序融资理论到资本结构模型，不同融资方式的成本与收益比较，始终是研究公司资本结构和融资行为的基点。公司通常倾向于采用成本低、收益高的融资方式以求获得财务杠杆收益和税收节约收益。在企业融资的过程中，由于负债的抵税作用和其他投资者成熟心理预期的相关信息的影响，企业应优先安排债务融资，其次选择股权融资，     

试述财务杠杆在企业财务管理中的作用

一、财务杠杆的含义 企业负债经营，不论利润多少，债务利息是不变的。于是利润增大时，每一元利润所负担的利息就会相对地减少，从而给投资者收益带来更大幅度的提高。这种债务对投资者收益的影响称作财务杠杆。     

债务杠杆与企业投资:双重预算软约束视角

文章以我国2000~2004年的上市公司为样本,在政府、银行和企业三方的预算软约束框架内实证检验了企业投资支出和债务杠杆之间的关系。研究发现,企业投资支出整体上同债务杠杆呈负相关。但在国有绝对控股的上市公司中,企业投资支出对于负债水平不敏感,并且,随着国有股权比例的上升,企业投资支出对债务杠杆的敏感度逐渐下降。基于此,文章认为,政府对国有企业和国有商业银行同时实施的双重预算软约束是导致国有企业投资行为扭曲和债务治理机制失效的重要原因。     

零负债企业的经营业绩——基于倾向评分匹配法和双重差分法的分析

零负债公司不仅限于发达国家,在发展中国家也普遍存在.数据显示我国零负债的公司呈现逐年增长的趋势.为深入研究公司选择零负债政策的经济后果,本文选取沪深A股上市公司为样本,以2011-2015年为检验区间,采用倾向评分匹配法与双重差分模型,考察公司选择零负债政策的经济后果.研究结果显示,选择零负债公司有更好的经营业绩.本文的研究为解读"零杠杆之谜"提供了新的证据,为投资者与管理者的决策提供了指导和参考.     

"结构性"去杠杆与企业资产配置:"脱实向虚"还是"脱虚向实"

以我国2012-2019年A股非金融类国有上市公司为样本,通过双重差分析方法实证研究了"结构化"去杠杆政策对企业资产配置的影响.结果 发现:去杠杆政策会显著降低企业的金融资产配置,并能抑制过度负债企业的固定资产投资,但对企业研发投资没有显著影响;去杠杆政策还会促进正常负债企业的实体投资,财政政策与"结构化"去杠杆的政策叠加能强化企业的实体投资,且高新技术企业税收减免的政策叠加效应要优于政府补助的政策叠加效应.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.