知识密集型服务业的空间关联性及其影响因素——以浙江省69个县市为例

基于浙江省69个县市2004—2013年相关经济发展数据,运用探索性空间数据分析法研究其知识密集型服务业发展的空间分布特征和时空演化规律,并采用空间常系数模型分析浙江省知识密集型服务业集聚发展的影响因素。结果表明:浙江省知识密集型服务业发展存在显著的空间集聚现象,已经形成以杭州、宁波为集聚中心的空间发展格局,且处于高值簇的县市之间联系紧密,属于低值簇的县市之间相互作用较弱。空间计量分析显示,SEM模型的空间自相关系数显著为正,进一步证明浙江省知识密集型服务业发展的空间扩散效应存在。解释变量中制造业集聚、政府保护度、信息化水平、城镇化水平、人力资本对区域KIBS的发展具有不同程度的促进作用,而经济开放度尚未形成对KIBS的有效推动。     

知识密集型服务业创新与竞争战略研究

我国知识密集型服务业发展远远落后于发达国家,随着我国服务业市场的开放,如何提高竞争力成为我国知识密集型服务业应对全球化竞争所必须面对的重要问题。知识密集型服务业的研发密度高,类似专业技术提供者,接近以科学为基础的产业;服务创新是知识密集型服务业创造和维持竞争优势的重要基础;知识密集型服务业的竞争优势不是以低价格的成本领先战略获得的,而是通过提高服务创新、服务质量、服务营销和服务特性,从而依靠差异化战略或目标集聚战略来实现的。     

中国知识密集型服务业集聚及影响因素研究——基于地级市视角

知识密集型服务业是知识经济时代新的增长点,对一个国家或地区的发展和创新的构建具有重要的作用和贡献,已经成为西方国家和地区产业结构调整关注的方向,国内相关方面还研究和实践较少。通过国内外文献梳理,以2003-2012年数据为基础,以中国287个地级市的知识密集型产业为对象,构建相关模型,考察了中国知识密集型服务产业在地级市空间层面上的集聚态势等,进一步分析其相关影响因素,并给出了新时期中国今后推进知识密集型服务业发展的政策建议。     

高速铁路建设对知识密集型服务业发展的影响：一个实证

知识和创新溢出存在空间壁垒,高速铁路能打破区域空间阻隔,缩小时空距离,促进以知识和创新为显著特征的知识密集型产业发展。构建2006-2015年省级面板数据,使用固定效应模型,从区域层面和细分产业层面研究高速铁路建设对我国知识密集型服务业发展的影响。结果发现,高速铁路建设与我国知识密集型服务业从业人员数量增加呈显著正相关关系;对东部地区知识密集型服务业发展影响不够显著,但对中西部地区知识密集型服务业固定资产投资起显著促进作用。这表明,高速铁路修建改善了区域投资环境,打破了区域阻隔,有助于增进知识溢出效应、加速要素流动,对中西部地区知识密集型服务业发展和产业升级具有重要意义,进一步证实在中西部地区建设高速路具有正确性和必要性。     

产业互动外部性、生产性服务业集聚与城市创新力--对我国七大城市群的一项实证比较

城市群经济在我国经济版图中扮演越来越重要的角色,正成为创新扩散的主要载体和经济增长的新引擎。生产性服务业作为高技术含量的知识密集型产业,其分布与结构的合理性对城市及城市群形成创新竞争力有重要意义。从产业互动外部性与产业集聚外部性角度切入,将城市群作为产业集聚的空间载体,利用2003-2016年我国七大城市群127个城市的面板数据构建动态空间面板模型,考察生产性服务业相对专业化集聚及相对多样化集聚对城市创新力的影响,进而探讨这种影响在城市群之间的差异性。实证结果显示:(1)生产性服务业相对集聚具有空间溢出效应,即某一城市创新力受当地和相邻地区生产性服务业相对集聚水平的影响。(2)就全国整体而言,对城市创新力有持续性影响的主要是相对多样化集聚而非相对专业化集聚,通过生产性服务业嵌入制造业价值链形成动态比较优势来实现城市创新能力的提升。(3)考虑区域异质性的回归结果表明,生产性服务业相对集聚程度对不同发展阶段不同发展模式的城市群内城市创新产生显著的差异性影响。     

知识密集型服务业创新扩散溢出能力、效应及其网络质量评价研究

知识密集型服务业对于区域产业经济的影响已深入到产业结构内部节点互联化发展网络层面。结合网络分析,针对长三角区域知识密集型服务业进行创新溢出网络化层级与动态结构分析,测算创新扩散溢出与吸收在流程和产品维度的网络扩散结构、活动集聚程度及其层级变化态势。结果表明,结构化效益差异是创新扩散对于创新网络式转换及传播的机制作用;创新转移传播与溢出具有从多节点、多部门走向相对单一的科技服务类别的特征,且创新扩散溢出网络分布不均化特征逐渐增强,并具有层级网络扩散特征和相对均衡化的创新溢出吸收扁平化网络层级特征。     

东北地区生产性服务业集聚的空间差异研究

采用变异系数、空间基尼系数、区位商等方法,以东北地区41个城市为研究对象,测算了2007—201 2年间东北地区生产性服务业的空间差异程度和集聚程度。结果表明:东北地区生产性服务业呈现明显的圈层结构分布,北部地区为哈尔滨-长春核心,以交通物流等生产性服务业为主,南部为沈阳-大连核心,以金融商务服务业为主;生产性服务业行业内空间集聚程度差异较大,金融业集聚程度较小,房地产业,租赁和商务服务业,科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业集聚程度较大,其他产业集聚程度适中;生产性服务业整体发展水平不高,中心城市服务型经济发展不成熟。     

开放环境下根植区域的知识密集型服务企业竞争战略

该文界定了知识密集型服务业的概念,阐述了该产业特征及其向区域中心城市集聚且在地区间呈非均衡发展的特点。建立了开放环境下知识密集型服务业国际转移规律的分析框架,并提出我国知识密集型服务企业根植区域、应对全球化竞争的三阶段转换战略发展模型及战略实施原则。     

长三角区域物流空间布局及演化特征研究

现代物流业是生产性服务业的核心产业之一,其发展水平成为衡量一个国家或地区现代化程度的重要标志之一,区域物流不仅是21世纪全球城市区域产业升级的必然诉求,而且也是城市群产业空间组织的基石。以长三角为实证,利用统计分析和基于GIS的区位基尼系数、区位熵等方法剖析长三角区域物流演化过程,发现:长三角区域物流空间组织现状呈现:①区域物流呈单中心等级扩散格局,城市间差异大,并呈扩大趋势;②区域物流空间集聚特征明显,廊道效应突出;③物流园区数量呈城镇等级梯度特征,且自成体系。城市群物流就业的区位商空间演化格局呈现:①长三角区域物流呈现"一心两团多点"向"一心两极多点"的空间演化历程;②区域物流空间集聚态势趋向强劲。     

生产性服务业与制造业产业空间关系综述与展望

文章系统阐述了生产性服务业的内涵与分类,在此基础上,基于产业视角,从互动需求、分工与价值链和产业关联三个层面,综述了二者之间的互动关系和互动机理。基于空间视角,从产业集聚、协同定位等层面,分析二者之间的协同集聚关系。基于创新视角,从价值链延伸以及产业层面的知识互动,综述知识密集型服务业与制造业的交互创新。基于生态学视角,综述了二者之间的共生关系。最后,阐述了生产性服务业与制造业研究的未来方向及趋势。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.