论城市商业活动空间结构研究的几个问题

针对当前我国商业活动空间结构研究相对低靡的现状,本文对城市商业活动空间结构的概念和研究框架、评价和研究方法体系、亟待研究的重点以及中心性和城市区域关系等几个问题进行了概述,以期开创相关研究的新领域.     

商业活动的经济学方法与原理分析

商业活动的经济学方法与原理分析曹宝明商业是由处于商品交换和商品流通过程中的所有商业中介人即商人构成的一个特定产业；商业活动则是商人在这一产业内提供以“为卖而买”为核心内容的商业服务活动。商业经济学是专门以商业或商业活动为研究对象的科学①，然而，当社会...     

大连临港产业集聚与城市空间结构演变研究

港口城市的发展历程表明,临港产业的集聚对城市空间结构的演变产生极为深远的影响。为深入研究港口城市空间结构演变问题,从临港产业集聚与城市空间结构演化过程出发,以大连地区为研究对象,基于遥感分析与地理信息系统技术手段,提取城市空间利用地理信息,结合分形几何、空间重心等理论,综合考虑临港产业集聚发展过程中城市社会人口、产业经济等多方面因素,探讨了港口城市空间结构演化现象,归纳总结了港口城市空间结构演变规律。结果表明:该研究可分别从城市空间增长速率、结构形态、分型演变与重心转移角度揭示港口城市空间结构演变过程与规律,可为提高港口城市空间结构演化合理性提供了理论依据和决策支持。     

"世界遗产地苏州"城市旅游空间结构研究

城市旅游空间结构的研究是研究城市旅游的一个重要方面。苏州作为国务际公布的第一批历史文化名城，城市旅游空间结构的发展颇具代表代。更重要的是，苏州拥有先后两批申报成功的的世界遗产项目－－拙政园等九处苏州古典园林，这使得城市旅游的空间结构又呈现出了特有的规律。本文在分析苏州城市旅游空间结构的节点、通道和域面要素的基本上，提出整合苏州城市旅游空间结构的两个途径：整体整合与核心整合，探讨了城市旅游空间整合的基本原则。     

西北干旱区城镇体系空间结构及其分形——以酒泉市为例

以西北干旱区城市酒泉市为例,运用定性和定量两种方法对市域城镇体系空间结构进行分析研究.介绍了分形理论及其在城镇体系研究中的应用,对城镇空间结构进行定性分析;其次,运用分形理论中的网格维数和关联维数模型对城镇空间结构进行定量分析,结果表明该区域城镇体系空间结构具有分形特征,与定性分析结果一致;最后,在上述分析的基础上提出城镇空间结构优化建议.     

试论合理城市空间结构的构建

自古至今，城市经历了从无到有，从简单到复杂的漫长的发展过程，随着城市的演化发展，一系列的城市问题接踵而至，推动人们不断去探索和建构合理的城市空间结构与发展模式来引导城市有序健康发展。本文通过对城市空间演化经典理论的研究与思考，分析了城市空间结构集中和分散两种演化趋势的各自利弊，提出了城市空间结构演化的合理方向和有序城市空间结构的构建。     

石家庄的城市意象空间及其重塑性研究

通过城市意象来分析城市空间结构,可作为进行现代城市空间结构研究的一个途径.通过问卷调查对石家庄居民城市意象空间结构进行研究,重点分析石家庄城市意象空间结构及其重塑对策.研究表明,石家庄居民城市意象空间主要是受到年龄、文化程度、职业和所在地的影响;石家庄需要从城市文化和特色建筑方面进行城市意象空间的重塑.     

基于GIS的城市居住与商业空间结构演变相关性研究——以长沙为例

居住与商业是城市空间结构中最为重要的两个功能要素,它们的协调发展与城市空间结构优化和居民生活品质提高紧密相关。以长沙为例,应用GIS技术从居住与商业空间结构演变的角度研究了它们之间的相关性,指出了居住空间与商业空间发展不匹配和居住空间布局与商业业态布局不匹配是长沙居住与商业空间结构演变过程中的主要问题,并提出探索和建立我国城市规划评估机制等方面的思路和建议。     

吉林省城镇体系空间结构及优化研究

本文在回顾城镇体系空间结构研究的基础上，引进经过修正的重力模式和断裂点计算方法，对吉林省城市基础数据进行处理，得出吉林省9个地市（州）及2个样本市的人口经济规模排序及相互间的横向引力矩阵与纵向引力矩阵，分析了吉林省城镇体系空间结构的现状特点，并提出了相应的结构优化对策。     

烟台市城市空间结构演变分析

城市空间结构是城市要素在空间上的分布和联结状态,城市空间结构及其形态的演变与城市发展的过程、城市的地理环境等有着密切的关联性,研究城市空间结构演变的历程与特征,对城市空间的增长进行合理的引导与控制,对于阻止或减缓城市空间的无序蔓延,促进城市向合理的空间形态演化具有重要的意义.本文在分析烟台市城市空间结构演化的历程与特征的基础上,对烟台市城市空间结构演变的动力做了分析,以期对烟台市未来的城市空间结构调整与优化起到一定的指导作用.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.