乡村振兴战略背景下的乡村旅游经济发展研究

乡村旅游对农村经济发展的作用主要表现在促进农村经济持续发展、提供更多的就业机会、调整农村产业结构、有利于农村经济的可持续发展。乡村旅游促进农村经济发展面临的挑战较多，如乡村旅游管理体系不健全、乡村旅游地信息化建设水平不高、生态环境破坏严重。为此，乡村振兴战略背景下的乡村旅游经济发展可从健全人才培养体系、加大乡村旅游信息化建设力度、健全乡村旅游的政策、创新开发乡村旅游、提高乡村旅游品质等方面着手，促进乡村经济的可持续发展，从而实现乡村振兴的目标。     

区域性城乡统筹的空间特征及其形成机制——以江苏省市域城乡为例

在系统分析城乡关系演变的基础上,以指标体系的形式和层次分析方法,分析江苏13个地级市域城乡统筹的空间分布特征:①全省城乡统筹的现状布局有从南向北分区逐减的规律,城乡统筹度分布格局与经济紧密相关,呈现“U”型变化规律。②南京这类城区发挥出规模发散作用和引导周围乡村产业经济等变革,是其全省的政治、经济、文化地位的客观要求。③地区的城镇化水平与城乡统筹的发展程度并不一致,不能简单地通过提高城市化水平来促进城乡统筹的发展。④区域政府的发展政策、大城市的辐射带动、乡村内部经济的不断增长、外来投资的地区倾向、城乡居民平等的追求愈益成为区域城乡统筹水平的动力。     

城市群地区乡村旅游点空间格局演变与优化调控——以长株潭城市群为例

从多城扩张背景认知城市群地区乡村旅游空间格局演变,从城乡融合视角解析优化调控模式,这既是新时代乡村旅游融合城乡要素的新内容,也是乡村旅游助力乡村振兴战略的新思路。在遥感解译的基础上界定乡村区域,运用空间统计和函数拟合揭示长株潭城市群乡村旅游点空间格局的演变特征,构建了乡村旅游发展适宜性评价指标体系,并以格网为单元,对研究区乡村旅游发展的适宜性进行分区,并以其为基础提出城市群乡村旅游发展的优化路径及调控模式。结果表明:(1)长株潭城市群三市建成区的同步扩张对外围乡村旅游点存在跨行政区域的空间挤压现象,近城乡村旅游点逐步嵌入所属城市或相邻城市建成区;(2)乡村旅游点空间格局呈现从离散到集聚的演进过程,并形成一核独大、多核并存的空间格局;(3)乡村旅游发展的优化调控应采用分区调控和要素调控相结合的调控策略,因地制宜地构建既响应城市增长需要,又促进乡村旅游引导城乡融合的地域模式。     

铜陵市乡村旅游现状及发展对策研究

乡村旅游作为农村第三产业的重要组成部分和新兴产业,能够增加农民收入,优化农村产业结构和就业结构,对促进农村经济与社会的可持续发展,提高农村的文明程度和加快农村城镇化进程等有着重要作用,但作为一种全新的旅游形式,在其发展过程中存在一些问题是不可避免的.因此,如何规范乡村旅游管理,让乡村旅游更好地为游客服务,是一个值得重视的问题.     

乡村旅游与新农村建设的协同发展模式研究

乡村旅游已经成为振兴农村经济,带动农村相关产业发展,推进社会主义新农村建设及构建城乡统筹发展格局的重要推动力。作为乡村旅游发展的成功案例,宁波天宫庄园的乡村旅游发展和新农村建设互相融合,以工促农,以农兴旅,以旅强村,走上了乡村旅游发展与新农村建设相互促进的良性循环之路,实现了农村经济、生态及社会的协同发展,使天宫庄园成为浙江新农村建设的样板和全国农业旅游示范区。文章探讨了宁波天宫庄园"以产业集群为组织模式,以农业为产业基础,以乡村旅游为产品特色,以庄园为空间载体和依托"的新农村建设与乡村旅游协同发展模式,并对其他类似区域推进乡村旅游与新农村建设的协同发展提供经验借鉴和模式参考。     

吉林省乡村发展问题旅游业探析

当今在大中城市城乡结合部广泛兴起的"农家乐"乡村旅游模式,虽然加快了农村产业结构调整步伐,统筹了城乡发展,但也存在一些问题.本文针对这些问题,提出了相应的对策建议.     

咸宁市乡村旅游的发展现状分析

乡村旅游是目前最具有吸引力的一种旅游形式.咸宁市作为一个旅游城市,乡村旅游虽然起步较晚,但发展较快且已初具规模.本文分析咸宁乡村旅游的发展现状,找出存在的问题并提出相应的建议,有效促进咸宁市城乡一体化和新农村建设,以期为咸宁市“十三五”期间实施绿色发展、绿色崛起战略提供参考依据.     

统筹城乡背景下县域经济可持续发展研究

城乡统筹是消除二元经济结构、发展县域经济的战略之举。发展县域经济,要转变经济发展方式,统筹城乡产业发展,培育优势产业集群,推进产业结构转型升级,加快体制、机制创新,实行强县扩权,促进城乡协调发展。从而形成富有区域特色的、可持续发展的县域产业发展布局。     

武汉城市圈乡村旅游发展战略研究

武汉城市圈正处于两型社会建设的关键时期,发展乡村旅游业有利于丰富旅游产业结构,有益于两型社会建设,武汉城市圈农村经济发展基础较好,本文积极探索武汉城市圈乡村旅游发展过程、形成特点及发展模式,努力挖掘影响武汉城市圈乡村旅游发展存在的障碍性因素,提出加快武汉城市圈乡村旅游建设的对策和措施,以期促进武汉城市圈乡村旅游健康快速地发展。     

生态文明视角下我国乡村旅游的集约可持续发展之路

我国乡村旅游自20世纪80年代兴起以来,在推进我国整体经济结构改革,促进农村经济发展,转移农村剩余劳动力再就业,优化农村传统产业结构,加快城乡一体化进程,提升农民思想文化素养等方面做出了卓越的贡献.乡村旅游作为回归自然,放松身心的休闲旅游产业之一,越来越受到人们的喜爱;但同时,乡村旅游粗放、不计后果的发展方式也引发了许多环境道德伦理问题.文章在生态视角下,研究分析我国乡村旅游集约可持续发展的背景和有效途径,通过对中国目前乡村旅游的发展状况及问题的剖析,本着集约可持续发展的原则,提出一些加强我国乡村旅游的集约、可持续发展的对策和建议.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.