Broadband penetration,financial development,and economic growth nexus: evidence from the Arab League countries

This paper examines the mutual relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth in the 22 Arab League countries for the period between 2001 and 2013. Financial development (represented by broad money supply, claims on the private sector, domestic credit to the private sector, domestic credit provided by the banking sector, market capitalization, turnover ratio, and traded stocks) is assessed both individually, and by a composite index. Our results reveal that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth. Additionally, we use a panel vector autoregression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality between the covariates. The most important insight of this study is the presence of bidirectional causality from economic growth to broadband penetration in the long run. In addition, we find that financial development together with broadband penetration Granger-cause economic growth in the long run.     

Financial development and innovation: Cross-country evidence

We examine how financial market development affects technological innovation. Using a large data set that includes 32 developed and emerging countries and a fixed effects identification strategy, we identify economic mechanisms through which the development of equity markets and credit markets affects technological innovation. We show that industries that are more dependent on external finance and that are more high-tech intensive exhibit a disproportionally higher innovation level in countries with better developed equity markets. However, the development of credit markets appears to discourage innovation in industries with these characteristics. Our paper provides new insights into the real effects of financial market development on the economy.     

Credit evaluation,information production,and financial intermediation

Financial intermediaries such as banks, saving and loan institutions, and insurance companies play a large and important role in highly developed economies. The economic significance of financial intermediaries results from their making arrangements between borrowers and lenders more efficiently than if these agents had to trade directly. The intent of this article is to provide a better understanding of the advantage that a financial institution has over an individual lender. This research treats intermediaries as producers of information in the credit evaluation process. The lender produces borrower information that revises the expected profit of the credit decision. Though the production of credit itself holds no economic advantage for institutions over individuals. The opportunity to produce information will provide economies of scale in lending and will help to explain the existence of financial intermediaries.     

Geographic diversification and firm value in the financial services industry

This paper investigates whether geographic diversification is value-enhancing or value-destroying in the financial services sector, broadly defined. Our dataset comprises approximately 3579 observations over the period from 1985 to 2004 and covers the entire range of U.S. financial intermediaries — commercial banks, investment banks, insurance companies, asset managers, and financial infrastructure services firms. We use two alternative measures of geographic diversification: (1) a dummy variable whether the firm reports more than one geographic segment and (2) the percentage of sales from non-domestic operations. Our results indicate that geographic diversification is not associated with a significant valuation discount in financial intermediaries. However, when accounting for the firms' main activity-areas, we find evidence of a significant discount associated with geographic diversification in securities firms and a premium in credit intermediaries and insurance companies. All these results are robust after taking into account functional diversification of the firms, a potential endogeneity of both functional and geographic diversification, and a potential value transfer from equity to debt holders by using estimates of the market value of debt.     

基于金融发展水平的证券市场开放对经济增长的影响

本文在索洛—斯旺框架下构建了一个分析证券市场开放对经济增长影响的理论模型,模型显示:金融开放后的经济收敛速度要大于封闭时的经济收敛速度,金融发展水平会促进金融开放带来的经济增长效应。通过金砖国家的数据对理论模型的结论进行实证检验显示:用名义的AREAER指标、实际的EW指标和资本流动指标度量的证券市场开放度的系数均显著为正,说明证券市场开放有利于经济增长;证券市场发展水平会促进该经济增长效应,而银行业发展水平对该经济增长效应的影响不显著。     

Variety expansion,preference shocks,and financial intermediaries

We investigate the effect of lifetime uncertainty on economic growth by incorporating preference shocks into a variety-expansion model and comparing financial autarky and financial intermediaries. In this economy, long-term investment facilitates the promotion of R&D investment and the creation of new differentiated goods. Our results suggest that when risk aversion is high, an increase in number of differentiated goods slows down R&D investment through a decrease in the price index. Further, if the risk of early withdrawal and the liquidation cost of long-term investment are high, financial intermediaries have significant effects on the growth of variety.     

言贷资产证券化投资者保护机制探讨

投资者的保护水平决定了信贷资产证券化的发展程度。作为一种金融创新，信贷资产证券化的投资者保护有其特殊性并开始成为证券化推广阶段的核心问题，试点时期的证券化制度已难以适应此时的投资者保护需要。应重新厘定监管者、金融中介和投资者的角色和功能，并在他们之间进行有效的证券化制度配置，以建立一个具有内在逻辑联系和价值传承的投资者保护机制，形成可持续自我发展的信贷资产证券化市场．     

What drives U.S. financial sector volatility? A Bayesian model averaging perspective

We investigate the driving forces behind the quarterly stock price volatility of firms in the U.S. financial sector over the period from 1990 to 2017. The driving forces represent a set of 28 economic indicators that are routinely used to detect financial instability and crises and correspond to the development of the financial, monetary, real, trade and fiscal sector as well as to the development of the bond and equity markets. The dimensionality and model choice uncertainty are addressed using Bayesian model averaging, which led to the identification of only seven variables that tend to systematically drive the stock price volatility of financial firms in the U.S.: housing prices, short-term interest rates, net national savings, default yield spread, and three credit market variables. We also confirm that our results are not an artefact of volatility associated with market downturns (for negative semi-volatility), as the results are similar even when market volatility is associated with market upsurge (positive semi-volatility). Given the identified drivers, our results provide supporting empirical evidence that dampening credit cycles might lead to decreased volatility in the financial sector.     

Local financial development and growth

Using unique, district-level, economic growth data, I investigate the connection between banking sector development, human capital, and economic growth in Indian districts. Disaggregate data helps avoid many of the omitted variable problems that plague similar cross-country studies. The data show districts to be financially constrained by the lack of local banking sector development, and the relationship may be non-linear. For districts in the sample, moving from the 75th percentile of credit/net domestic product to the 25th percentile implies an average loss of 4% in growth over the 1990s decade. The data also shows that human capital deepening can reduce the financial constraint. In a district at the 25th literacy percentile, the implied growth loss due to a constrained banking sector is twice as large as in a district at the 75th literacy percentile. The results are robust to the inclusion of various controls and changes in specification.     

Financial crisis,structure and reform

In this study, we examine the relationship between the structure of financial systems and financial crises. Using cross-country data on financial structures and crises, we find that there is a significant short-term reversal in development of the banking sector and the stock market during both bank crises and market crashes, with the corporate bond market moving in the same direction as bank credit. However, the results are significant for countries with market-based financial systems but not for countries with bank-based financial systems. Emerging markets have mainly bank-based financial systems, which may explain why these markets require more time to recover from economic downturns after a financial crisis. Therefore, we argue that governments should emphasize a balanced financial system structure as it helps countries to recover from financial crises more quickly compared with countries that lack such balanced structures.     

现代金融中介理论视角下的我国金融体系模式选择

现代金融中介理论表明,商业银行等金融中介与经济增长之间存在密切的相关性。金融中介在促进经济增长的同时,也面临着许多复杂问题。本文从现代金融中介理论的视角出发,对银行导向型金融体系与市场导向型金融体系进行了国际比较,并从融资关系、风险管理、信息生产、公司治理等角度进行对比分析,得出在中国现实的环境下中介与市场发挥着不同作用,但金融中介的优势明显。因此,我国应选择以金融中介为主、资本市场为辅的金融体系,并加紧推出金融机构的混业经营模式。     

Financial intermediation and economic growth: the post-liberalization Indian experience

The paper is concerned with the relationship between economic growth and financial intermediation, in particular stock market development, in post-liberalization India. It identifies three possible relationships: (a) the relationship between growth of manufacturing and growth of the stock market; (b) the relationship between growth of the stock market and growth of traditional financial intermediaries like banks; (c) the relationship between the growth of the primary stock market and that of the secondary stock market. These three relationships are empirically tested using Indian data. While the growth of turnover in the stock market is found to be positively correlated with the change in the growth of manufacturing and the growth of sales of new shares is found to positively affect the secondary market, evidence on the relationship between sales of new shares and traditional banking activities is mixed. The primary stock market is found to crowd out bank deposits, but crowd in bank credit.     

Shadow Banks and Macroeconomic Instability

We develop a macroeconomic model in which commercial banks can offload risky loans to a “shadow” banking sector, and financial intermediaries trade in securitized assets. The model can account both for the business cycle comovement between output, traditional bank, and shadow bank credit, and for the behavior of macroeconomic variables in a liquidity crisis centered on shadow banks. We find that following a liquidity shock, stabilization policy aimed solely at the market in securitized assets is relatively ineffective.     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

Phasing out the GSEs

We develop a new model of the mortgage market that emphasizes the role of the financial sector and the government. Risk tolerant savers act as intermediaries between risk averse depositors and impatient borrowers. Both borrowers and intermediaries can default. The government provides both mortgage guarantees and deposit insurance. Underpriced government mortgage guarantees lead to more and riskier mortgage originations and higher financial sector leverage. Mortgage crises occasionally turn into financial crises and government bailouts due to the fragility of the intermediaries’ balance sheets. Foreclosure crises beget fiscal uncertainty, further disrupting the optimal allocation of risk in the economy. Increasing the price of the mortgage guarantee “crowds in” the private sector, reduces financial fragility, leads to fewer but safer mortgages, lowers house prices, and raises mortgage and risk-free interest rates. Due to a more robust financial sector and less fiscal uncertainty, consumption smoothing improves and foreclosure rates fall. While borrowers are nearly indifferent to a world with or without mortgage guarantees, savers are substantially better off. While aggregate welfare increases, so does wealth inequality.     

金融错配、非金融企业影子银行化与经济“脱实向虚”

当前,我国一些非金融企业通过直接或间接的方式从事影子银行业务。本文利用2004-2015年上市公司数据研究发现,金融错配程度的提高整体上会提高企业影子银行化规模,并且这种效应仅在金融深化程度较高、经济资源市场化配置程度偏低的地区显著;僵尸企业和盈利性较差的企业,分别受到“利润追逐”和“投资替代”机制的影响,金融错配对其影子银行化趋势的正向作用更为明显。机制检验发现,金融错配水平的上升通过提高融资约束程度从而降低企业实体投资水平,这种效应在资产专用性较强的企业中更为明显;金融错配主要通过融资约束程度和实体投资规模,而非资本回报率渠道作用于企业影子银行化行为。本文研究对于提高信贷资源配置效率,防范经济“脱实向虚”具有较强的政策意义。     

The anatomy of corporate securitizations and contract design

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), intermediaries situated between investors and traditional banks, play an increasingly central role in the provision of credit to constrained corporations, holding as much as 75% of all new institutional leveraged loans. Despite their ascendancy in the risky corporate credit market, there has been little academic research on the CLO market. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the design and structure of the CLO market, describing the general macroeconomic milieu that has facilitated the rapid growth of the market, the mechanics therein, as well as recent risks that have emerged. Understanding the anatomy and dynamics of CLOs is paramount for developing insights into the role of non-bank financial intermediaries in financial markets.     

非银行金融科技与上市公司借贷成本——竞争压力还是信息溢出？

金融科技作为技术驱动的金融创新,是深化金融供给侧结构性改革、增强金融服务实体经济能力的重要引擎。基于我国A股上市公司数据,本文实证分析了针对中小微企业和个人的非银行金融科技发展对上市公司借贷成本的溢出效应。结果表明,非银行金融科技发展每提高10%,上市公司借贷成本平均下降1.6个百分点。进一步分析表明,这一结果同时受到“竞争压力”与“信息溢出”两种机制的作用:前者表现为在银行业竞争程度更高的地区,非银行金融科技的发展更能显著降低企业的借贷成本;后者表现为,非银行金融科技的发展能够显著降低商业银行不良贷款率,同时也能降低商业银行业务及管理费用开支。本文探索金融科技如何影响上市公司融资成本,为金融科技进一步增强金融服务实体经济能力提供了新的启示。     

Historical financing of small- and medium-size enterprises

We focus on the economies of the North Atlantic Core during the 19th and early 20th centuries and find that an impressive variety of local financial institutions emerged to supply the needs of SMEs wherever there was sufficient demand for their services. Although these intermediaries had significant weaknesses, they were able to tap into local information networks and so extend credit to firms that were too young or small to secure funds from large regional or national institutions. In addition, by raising the return to savings for local households, they helped to mobilize significant new resources for economic development.     

中国农村金融发展对农村经济的影响分析——基于AK理论的多变量误差修正模型

本文通过研究农村金融市场融资能力及信贷效率对农村经济的影响,来分析农村金融发展对中国农业经济的重要性。首先基于帕加诺内生经济增长理论选取与经济增长率相关的且能反映农村金融市场融资能力的金融指标,其次基于这些金融指标,通过误差修正模型,在统一的框架内综合分析金融市场的发展对农村经济的影响情况,并定量分析农村经济增长与信贷、投资间的互动过程。计量结论显示在长期信贷与优化的金融结构、完善的金融融资渠道能够促进农业经济增长,但中国农业经济增长不能内生吸引信贷资金。农业经济增长的长效机制在于发展高效农业,监管部门要通过指导意见改善农村金融结构与金融渠道、促进信贷支农特别是支持乡镇企业的投资,以此为基础实现农村产业与农村金融市场的良性互动。