Combining LCA and RA for the integrated risk management of emerging technologies

Emerging risks of innovative technologies, like for instance nanotechnology, require proactive assessments in order to guarantee that their future materials and products will not result in adverse effects on health, safety and the environment. The combination of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Risk Assessment (RA) offers a systematic approach to identify and assess potential impacts. LCA is a well-known analytical tool, standardised in ISO 14040-14044, to assess the environmental impact of the entire life-cycle of a product or service. Its strengths are the systematic approach to analyse all life-cycle stages of complex systems. Integrated risk management can benefit in various ways from LCA. Firstly, LCA offers a new dimension to the safety paradigm, exploring the principles and synergies between LCA and RA. Secondly, LCA offers a systematic approach to analyse the risks of innovative technologies along their entire life-cycle (from design, building, maintenance, operation to decommissioning). Thirdly, LCA offers an analytical tool to quantify the environmental impact of emerging technologies. In combination with RA, LCA can provide scientifically sound information for the early assessment of potential impacts on health, safety and the environment.     

Sustainable product-service systems

The concept of sustainable product-service systems has emerged recently, and is distinct from the ideas of cleaner production, eco-design and design for the environment. The concept goes beyond the environmental optimisation of products and processes and requires radical and creative thinking to reduce environmental impacts by a factor of between four and 20 times while maintaining an acceptable quality of service. Sustainable product-services consider alternative socio-technical systems that can provide the essential end-use function, such as warmth or mobility, that an existing product offers. Four types are outlined—result services; shared utilisation services; product-life extension services; and demand side management. Sustainable product-service systems attempt to create designs that are sustainable in terms of environmental burden and resource use, whilst developing product concepts as parts of sustainable whole systems, that provide a service or function to meet essential needs.     

Risk assessment of option performance for new product and process development projects in the chemical industry: a case study

This paper presents as a case study, empirical research forming part of a large EPSRC‐funded project to decrease new product and process development times within the UK fine chemicals industry. The work aimed to design a decision support system to evaluate competing options in such development projects. Theoretical and practical contributions from academic and industrial collaborating groups were integrated using Action Research. High levels of risk when bringing new products to market or new processes on line means that risk assessment features significantly when evaluating different project options. A key research target, and the concern of this paper, is the design and use of a risk assessment tool (RAT) to fit the context of the overall decision support system. Collectively the tools enabled the options within individual projects to be evaluated on risk and other performance dimensions. Industrialists provided a number of comprehensive case studies to test the suite of tools. Theoretical and empirical implications are discussed.     

An empirical study on the drivers of management control systems' design in new product development

New product development has changed significantly over the last decade and management control systems have played an important role in this transformation. This study draws on Galbraith's concept of uncertainty and investigates the relationship between project uncertainty, product strategy and management control systems. It also explores whether these systems help or, as argued in the innovation literature, hinder product development performance. Results support the relevance of the project uncertainty and product strategy to explain the design of management control systems. They also show that better cost and design information has a positive association with performance, but that time information has a negative effect.     

On the interplay between environmental reporting and management accounting change

This paper investigates how environmental reporting (ER) and environment-related management accounting (EMA) practices may interact in the process of responding to disturbances of the natural environment (e.g., changes in environmental regulation, green consumerism, societal pressures for environmentally-responsible conduct). Based on data gathered in four Belgian case companies, we find that the emergence of an interplay between ER and EMA practices is related to the change pathways followed by these disturbances. Moreover, the strength of the environmental disturbances, top management commitment and the presence of an environmental champion are important contingent factors in understanding the development of a recursive relationship. Finally, the findings illustrate that an interplay between ER and EMA practices has the potential to foster or stifle organizational greening.     

Multi-stage product development with exploration,value-enhancing,preemptive and innovation options

We provide a real options framework for the analysis of product development that incorporates research and exploration actions, product attribute value-enhancing actions with uncertain outcome, as well as preemption and innovation options. We derive two-stage analytic formulas and propose a general multi-period solution using a numerical lattice approach. Our analysis reveals that exploration actions are more important when the project is out or at-the-money (near zero NPV) and less important for high project values. In a multi-stage setting, exploration actions are important even for in-the-money projects, when follow-on actions exist that can enhance the expected value of the project. With path-dependency, early actions are more valuable since they enhance the impact or reduce the cost of subsequent actions. Preemptive controls affecting rare event (jump) frequency and innovations that introduce positive jumps are more valuable for firms with higher frequency of competitive threats involving low volatility.     

How multi-sourcing can influence management control: Case study evidence from the electronic products supply chain

This study investigates how multi-sourcing can influence the use of management controls in the presence of varying buyer-supplier power dependencies. Multi-sourcing is an interorganizational design choice that can help buyers collect valuable information to facilitate cost and performance comparisons across multiple sources of supply. We leverage prior research to develop a conceptual framework that highlights how multi-sourcing can enable buyers to use cost management and performance management controls differently depending on the nature of buyer-supplier power dependencies. We then use case studies of three electronic product manufacturers to illustrate the framework, yielding empirically testable propositions regarding when multi-sourcing may enable cost management controls, performance management controls, and both types of control. The evidence demonstrates the importance of simultaneously considering multiple interorganizational design choices when studying management controls in supply chains. We also highlight how multi-sourcing may help supply chains promote non-financial goals, including those related to environmental and social activities.     

Calibration to American options: numerical investigation of the de-Americanization method

American options are the reference instruments for the model calibration of a large and important class of single stocks. For this task, a fast and accurate pricing algorithm is indispensable. The literature mainly discusses pricing methods for American options that are based on Monte Carlo, tree and partial differential equation methods. We present an alternative approach that has become popular under the name de-Americanization in the financial industry. The method is easy to implement and enjoys fast run-times (compared to a direct calibration to American options). Since it is based on ad hoc simplifications, however, theoretical results guaranteeing reliability are not available. To quantify the resulting methodological risk, we empirically test the performance of the de-Americanization method for calibration. We classify the scenarios in which de-Americanization performs very well. However, we also identify the cases where de-Americanization oversimplifies and can result in large errors.     

Valuing Equity-Indexed Annuities

Abstract

Equity-indexed annuities have generated a great deal of interest and excitement among both insurers and their customers since they were first introduced to the marketplace in early 1995. Because of the embedded options in these products, the insurers are presented with some challenging mathematical problems when it comes to the pricing and management of equity indexed annuities. This paper explores the pricing aspect of three of the most common product designs: the point-to-point, the cliquet, and the lookback. Based on certain assumptions, we are able to present the pricing formulas in closed form for the three product designs. The method of Esscher transforms is the fundamental tool for pricing such deferred annuities.     

Environmental work profiles—A Visionary Life Cycle Analysis of a week at the office

This study aims to set up a method to analyse the variable office work profiles of jobs such as bankers, managers, specialists, researchers, etc. A worker's profile has to be assessed from the perspective of balanced sustainability including environmental, economic and social aspects. This paper starts with a presentation of a visionary methodology by which the environmental performance of present work profiles (taken from research reports and policy strategies by Finnish ministries) is assessed. Due to this all the work profiles presented in this paper are preliminary and only serve the purpose of illustrating the methodology. In a second step an extensive survey will be carried out in larger companies to create more detailed and empirical work profiles. At the same time, further effort has to be put into analysing alternative future work profiles and possibly to include economic and social aspects.In order to determine the environmental impact of office work, two normally independent methods are combined in this paper. A futures table is used to describe a number of alternative work profiles. This table matrix serves also as the basis to establish future scenarios of probable and possible working weeks. Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the tool used for figuring out the energy and material performance according to the modelled work profiles. When used together, the two methods comprise - as we call it with respect to future-oriented work scenarios - a Visionary Life Cycle Analysis (VLCA) of Office Work.The immediate results of this methodology demonstrate which working profiles are ecologically more sustainable than others. Weaknesses in behaviour patterns are detected and space for improvement is localised. In short: this methodology enables a company or single worker to analyse present work profiles and patterns and to create new visionary and sustainable work patterns. The final goal could be to provide a tool to document anybody's work profile and to show how - by changing certain habits - the individual's (environmental) performance could be improved.     

Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Environmental Management Accounting — Links Between Business Actors and Environmental Management Accounting Tools

This article develops a comprehensive framework for environmental management accounting (EMA) linking business actors and EMA tools. The proposed framework provides structure for managers to understand and assess the variety of environmental management accounting tools that have been developed to date, with the intention of encouraging their adoption. The framework systematically integrates two major components of environmental management accounting — monetary environmental management accounting (MEMA) and physical environmental management accounting (PEMA). It highlights the past/future and short/long-term time dimensions of the different tools, and the regularity of information generation, before concluding with a brief discussion about choice of the most important EMA tools.     

Binomial Option Pricing Biases and Inconsistent Implied Volatilities

We evaluate the binomial option pricing methodology (OPM) by examining simulated portfolio strategies. A key aspect of our study involves sampling from the empirical distribution of observed equity returns. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we generate equity prices under known volatility and return parameters. We price American–style put options on the equity and evaluate the risk–adjusted performance of various strategies that require writing put options with different maturities and moneyness characteristics. The performance of these strategies is compared to an alternative strategy of investing in the underlying equity. The relative performance of the strategies allows us to identify biases in the binomial OPM leading to the well–known volatility smile . By adjusting option prices so as to rule out dominated option strategies in a mean–variance context, we are able to reduce the pricing errors of the OPM with respect to option prices obtained from the LIFFE. Our results suggest that a simple recalibration of inputs may improve binomial OPM performance.     

Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning

Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change is forcing health organizations to deal more efficiently with their real estate, and this increases the need for real estate strategies that are more flexible. In order to support managers in incorporating flexibility in their decision-making over the design of new healthcare facilities, we have developed a method that combines scenario planning and real options. Scenario planning enhances sensemaking over the consequences of future uncertainties, and real options should help in addressing flexibility in decision-making through weighing the pros and cons of flexibility measures. We illustrate the sensemaking process by applying the method to a hospital, to a forensic clinic and to a care organization for vulnerable citizens. Data collection took place through interviews and workshops. We found that the identity and characteristics of the workshop participants influenced the sensemaking process. The method proved a useful means of making sense of abstract uncertainties that influence an organization, aspects that are normally outside the scope of real estate managers. The real options approach offered a more structured way of balancing the costs and benefits of strategies in dealing with future uncertainties.     

Developing products on Internet time

The rise of the World Wide Web has provided one of the most challenging environments for product development in recent history. The market needs that a product is meant to satisfy and the technologies required to satisfy them can change radically--even as the product is under development. In response to such factors, companies have had to modify the traditional product-development process, in which design implementation begins only once a product's concept has been determined in its entirety. In place of that traditional approach, they have pioneered a flexible product-development process that allows designers to continue to define and shape products even after implementation has begun. This innovation enables Internet companies to incorporate rapidly evolving customer requirements and changing technologies into their designs until the last possible moment before a product is introduced to the market. Flexible product development has been most fully realized in the Internet environment because of the turbulence found there, but the foundations for it exist in a wide range of industries where the need for responsiveness is paramount. When technology, product features, and competitive conditions are predictable or evolve slowly, a traditional development process works well. But when new competitors and technologies appear overnight, when standards and regulations are in flux, and when a company's entire customer base can easily switch to other suppliers, businesses don't need a development process that resists change--they need one that embraces it.     

Evaluating Government Bond Fund Performance with Stochastic Discount Factors

This article shows how to evaluate the performance of managedportfolios using stochastic discount factors (SDFs) from continuous-timeterm structure models. These models imply empirical factorsthat include time averages of the underlying state variables.The approach addresses a performance measurement bias, describedby Goetzmann, Ingersoll, and Ivkovic (2000) and Ferson and Khang(2002), arising because fund managers may trade within the returnmeasurement interval or hold positions in replicable options.The empirical factors contribute explanatory power in factormodel regressions and reduce model pricing errors. We illustratethe approach on US government bond funds during 1986–2000.     

Real Options, (Dis)Investment Decision-Making and Accounting Measures of Performance

This paper suggests that a residual income-type measure of performance can be designed which supports optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework involving the options to wait before investing and to abandon. The measure has a number of advantages and disadvantages. Nonetheless, the balance of advantage versus disadvantage for the proposed measure must be set against the inadequacies of other competing measures of performance and associated organisational designs. Even if the measure of performance suggested is not regarded as practically useful, it has another general advantage – it can be used as a benchmark against which to evaluate other performance measures with regard to their support of optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework.     

Environmental management accounting in local government: Functional and institutional imperatives

The challenge of using environmental management accounting (EMA) tools such as full‐cost accounting to improve waste and recycling management has been acknowledged for over a decade. However, research on assessing and understanding local government use of EMA, especially broader levels of EMA, is lacking. This study investigates the link between the nature and drivers of EMA practice for waste and recycling services based on a survey conducted with local governments in New South Wales, Australia. The study finds that although social and organisational factors are related to the uptake of EMA, local governments are subject to stronger functional demands than institutional pressures in their use of more expansive EMA such as indirect and external costs and impacts. This implies that the use of EMA in local government is viewed more as an adaptive activity to cope with functional challenges and achieve efficiency, than as an institutional imperative to achieve social acceptance.     

Real Options, (Dis)Investment Decision-Making and Accounting Measures of Performance

This paper suggests that a residual income-type measure of performance can be designed which supports optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework involving the options to wait before investing and to abandon. The measure has a number of advantages and disadvantages. Nonetheless, the balance of advantage versus disadvantage for the proposed measure must be set against the inadequacies of other competing measures of performance and associated organisational designs. Even if the measure of performance suggested is not regarded as practically useful, it has another general advantage – it can be used as a benchmark against which to evaluate other performance measures with regard to their support of optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework.     

Stochastic volatility options pricing with wavelets and artificial neural networks

Abstract

The paper describes an alternative options pricing method which uses a binomial tree linked to an innovative stochastic volatility model. The volatility model is based on wavelets and artificial neural networks. Wavelets provide a convenient signal/noise decomposition of the volatility in the nonlinear feature space. Neural networks are used to infer future volatility from the wavelets feature space in an iterative manner. The bootstrap method provides the 95% confidence intervals for the options prices. Market options prices as quoted on the Chicago Board Options Exchange are used for performance comparison between the Black‐Scholes model and a new options pricing scheme. The proposed dynamic volatility model produces as good as and often better options prices than the conventional Black‐Scholes formulae.