基于价值投资的证券市场相关研究和回归分析以及应对策略

为了能够提高我国证券市场价值投资的应用水平,对我国证券市场价值投资进行实证研究,结果表明,我国证券市场仍是一种新兴的证券市场,处于由非有效市场向弱有效市场的转型中。随着上市公司质量的不断提升,价值投资策略将成为证券市场的主流形式。     

Is There a Favoritism Strategy in Taiwan Mutual-Fund Companies?

This paper investigates whether Taiwan mutual-fund companies actively pursue a corporate-level strategy of enhancing the performance of "high-value" funds (i.e., high fee-ratio funds or high past performers) at the expense of other "low-value" funds belonging to the same companies. The results show a significant difference between high- and low-value funds within the same fund families and that this difference favors the high past-perorming funds. The future incremental cash inflows from these high-value funds indicate that fund companies indeed benefit from the subsidized strategy. Our findings highlight the potential for agency problems and the importance of corporate and fund governance in the Taiwan asset-management industry.     

人民币汇率波动如何影响中国企业的对外直接投资?

基于2005-2017 "中国全球投资跟踪数据库"的对外投资微观数据,本文考察人民币汇率波动的不确定性对中国企业对外直接投资的影响。研究发现:人民币汇率波动的增加,不仅减少了中国企业对外直接投资的可能性,也抑制了投资规模,这一结果在考虑内生性问题、样本选择性偏差、不同的汇率波动指标等一系列问题后仍然稳健。基于手工搜集的企业年报数据,研究发现,企业前期的套期保值行为,可以有效规避汇率风险,弱化汇率波动对企业对外投资的抑制作用。进一步研究显示,汇率波动对中国企业对外投资的影响有明显的异质性,投资于不同行业、不同国家的企业以及不同投资方式的企业对人民币汇率波动的反应各异,这又与中国现阶段对外投资的一些独特特征有关。本文研究为汇率波动影响中国企业的对外直接投资行为提供了微观层面的证据。     

Corporate Governance and Investor Reaction to Reported Earnings: An Exploratory Study of Listed Chinese Companies

This study explores the determinants of listed Chinese companies’ governance practices. It also examines how these companies’ governance practices affect domestic investors’ reaction to their earnings reports. Using publicly disclosed financial information and data directly collected from 148 domestically listed Chinese companies, the findings are consistent with investors in these companies basing their valuation decisions, at least in part, on these companies’ earnings reports. This is indicated by the significant relationship between “unexpected” earnings and cumulative abnormal returns. However, the hypothesized effects of governance practice/choice are, on the whole, not supported. There also is no systematic relation between governance choice and ownership structure. We interpret these findings to imply that in the Chinese securities market, the institutional factors and infrastructure (e.g., legal liability, information intermediation, market for managers, and takeovers) are not yet sufficiently developed to permit individual domestic investors to exert significant influence via their actions in the capital markets.     

基于三方演化博弈视角的中小投资者权益保护研究

在我国证券市场的不断发展中,中小投资者一直处于弱势地位,上市公司侵害中小投资者权益的事件时有发生。本文从演化博弈的视角分析中小投资者权益保护的问题,构建由上市公司、中小投资者和监管部门构成的三方演化博弈模型,运用复制动态方程以及Matlab仿真分析,对中小投资者权益保护问题进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)博弈中任何一方的策略选择都会影响其余两方的策略选择,同时也会受到另外两方策略选择的影响;(2)在一定条件,三方演化博弈模型存在三个演化稳定策略;(3)资本市场监管制度的完善程度对演化博弈参与主体特别是上市公司的策略选择有着重要的影响;(4)监管部门对上市公司的侵害行为收取的罚金水平对上市公司的行为选择具有重要的影响。     

The hidden dragons

Most multinational corporations are fascinated with China. Carried away by the number of potential customers and the relatively cheap labor, firms seeking a presence in China have traditionally focused on selling products, setting up manufacturing facilities, or both. But they've ignored an important development: the emergence of Chinese firms as powerful rivals--in China and also in the global market. In this article, Ming Zeng and Peter Williamson describe how Chinese companies like Haier, Legend, and Pearl River Piano have quietly managed to grab market share from older, bigger, and financially stronger rivals in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Global managers tend to offer the usual explanations for why Chinese companies don't pose a threat: They aren't big enough or profitable enough to compete overseas, the managers say, and these primarily state-owned companies are ill-financed and ill-equipped for global competition. As the government's policies about the private ownership of companies changed from forbidding the practice to encouraging it, a new breed of Chinese companies evolved. The authors outline the four types of hybrid Chinese companies that are simultaneously tackling the global market. China's national champions are using their advantages as domestic leaders to build global brands. The dedicated exporters are entering foreign markets on the strength of their economies of scale. The competitive networks have taken on world markets by bringing together small, specialized companies that operate in close proximity. And the technology upstarts are using innovations developed by China's government-owned research institutes to enter emerging sectors such as biotechnology. Zeng and Williamson identify these budding multinationals, analyze their strategies, and evaluate their weaknesses.     

“Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive(large shareholder)trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66%(72.7%) of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage(e.g., executives and controlling shareholders).Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies,probably because the "quasi-official" status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading.The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.     

Lead from the center. How to manage divisions dynamically

Conventional wisdom holds that a company's divisions should be given almost total autonomy--especially under conditions of uncertainty--because they are closer to emerging technologies, customers, and competitors than corporate headquarters could ever be. But research from Michael Raynor and Joseph Bower suggests that the corporate office should be more, not less, directive in turbulent markets. Rapid changes in an industry make it difficult to predict where and when synergies among divisions might emerge. With so many possibilities and such uncertainty, companies can't afford to sacrifice their ability to flexibly execute business strategy. Corporate headquarters must play an active role in defining the scope of division-level strategy, the authors say, so that divisions do not act in ways that undermine opportunities to collaborate in the future. But neither can companies afford to sacrifice the competitiveness of their divisions as stand-alone businesses. In creating corporate-level strategic flexibility, a corporate office must balance the need for divisional autonomy now with the potential need for cooperation in the future. Through an examination of four corporations--Sprint, WPP, Teradyne, and Viacom--the authors challenge traditional approaches to diversification in which a company's divisions are either related (they share resources and collaborate) or unrelated (they compete for resources and operate as stand-alone businesses). They argue that companies should adopt a dynamic approach to cooperation among divisions, enabling varying degrees of relatedness between divisions depending on strategic circumstances. The authors offer four tactics to help executives manage divisions dynamically.     

基于Cummins-Outreville模型的中国产险业保险周期实证研究

发达市场对于保险周期的研究开展了二十多年,对于周期的存在性、影响因素及分析方法等已经形成了相对完整的理论和实证研究体系.在实证研究方面,Cummins-Outreviue模型是使用最为广泛的二阶自回归分析模型.本文利用Cummins-Outreville模型及其扩展形式,以1991年至2009年的数据为基础,研究中国产...     

上市公司投资价值分析

本文通过对中国证券市场发展过程中,投资理念逐步转变为价值投资,随着中国证券市场的逐步成熟和法律监管体系的进一步完善,越来越关注企业的内在价值以赚取分红送股。本文分析了国内外上市公司投资价值的背景和重要性,从宏观背景、产业、市场和区域因素和公司情况等方面对上市公司投资价值分析的方法进行了阐述。并重点对公司情况的基本面、财务、投资收益水平、偿债能力和获利及发展水平进行了具体的投资价值的分析,以及各指标公式的使用方法。旨在帮助投资者理性分析选择,挖掘上市公司的内在价值,并能获得较理想的收益。     

中资外资人身险公司竞争力评价比较——基于“中国保险公司竞争力评价研究报告（2011）”

随着加入世界贸易组织(WTO)和保险市场的开放,中国的保险业出现了飞速发展。机遇与挑战并存,在大量资金、先进技术流入的同时,中国保险公司的竞争力到底如何?在竞争力方面,中资、外资保险公司各自的表现如何?以"2011年保险公司竞争力研究报告"的数据为依据,通过将"中资外资"这样一个定性的概念用数学上定量的形式表现在数学模型中,进而分析定性因素"中资、外资"对人身险公司竞争力的影响。     

中国产险公司再保险决策的影响因素与调整机制研究--基于持续性与趋同性特征的分析

本文以2006~2017年中国39家产险公司的非平衡面板数据为研究样本,从产险公司再保险决策的持续性和趋同性特征入手,测度了固定效应和传统因素对再保险决策的解释能力,并首次探析了产险公司再保险决策的调整机制问题。本文运用方差分解方法量化了固定效应和传统因素对再保险决策的解释能力;采用分布滞后模型估计了传统因素对再保险决策的中长期影响;运用局部调整模型识别了固定效应和传统因素对再保险决策的影响机制。研究发现:受公司固定效应的影响,产险公司的再保险决策具有很强的持续性,每年主要是根据年份固定效应所代表的监管政策等宏观因素的变化做出迅速调整,而根据反映公司经营特征的传统因素的时间序列变化所做出的调整并不明显。基于上述结果,本文建议监管者应注重提升监管政策的针对性,引导产险公司在综合考量各项经营指标的基础上,把再保险作为全面风险管理、经营效率提升的一项中长期战略安排。     

Effect of Cross-Border E-Business Policy on the Export Trade of an Emerging Market: A Dynamic Study of Institutional Support to Cross-Border E-Business at Chinese Pilot Cities

Policies to offer institutional support to cross-border E-business are processed in the development of export at emerging markets. This research estimates the effect of institutional support to cross-border E-business on export trade in an emerging market by a difference-in-difference model. It is found that the institutional support to cross-border E-business at the pilot cities had a positive effect on export trade. Further, a decision tree of predictions to export is developed, based on the cross-border E-business policy and regional economic factors shown to have effect on export, and the complex network of interconnections across the cities in different conditions is revealed. The estimation of probability for export increase based on the effect of cross-border E-business policy is further performed by Bayesian model. This research can be helpful to policy makers and business administrators in understanding the effect of cross-border E-business policies on export at emerging markets.     

21 years of international M&As and joint ventures by Italian medium-sized listed firms: Value creation or value destruction?

This study provides evidence of the value creation of different equity entry modes in a sample of international investments performed by all Italian medium-sized listed firms in the period 1986-2006. Our research shows a positive and significant market reaction to announcements of internationalization strategies. The results are largely affected by high-equity entry modes carried out in advanced economies. Low-equity entry modes and international operations performed in emerging countries show no significant market reaction. We also find that the relative size of the deal, the firm age, the country risk, and the evolution of information disclosure regulation, matter in explaining the outcomes.     

中国上市公司市值管理研究

市值管理产生于中国股市股权分置改革完成后、逐步实现股份全流通的背景下,是西方价值管理在中国股市的发展和延伸。本文借助平衡计分卡这一战略分析工具探讨了影响上市公司内在价值创造的四个关键驱动要素——财务性价值驱动要素、公司治理价值驱动要素、客户关系管理价值驱动要素、投资者关系管理价值驱动要素;在此基础上,从市值管理三大环节——价值创造、价值经营、价值实现出发构建了中国上市公司市值管理框架;最后,提出了加强上市公司市值管理的建议。     

The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China*

China has prospered from its strategy of reserve accumulation and related export surplus. But the strategy has drawbacks. Open‐ended reserve accumulation has left the the economy exposed to an eventual devaluation of the dollar, and reliance on exports has left it exposed to a downturn in rich‐world consumption. China thus has an incentive to rethink both halves of its model—to accumulate fewer reserves, on the one hand, and to run a smaller current‐account surplus on the other. Recent steps such as faster renminbi appreciation, the new Five‐Year Plan, and announced shifts in reserve strategy will move China in this direction— and other emerging economies may well follow. This article analyzes the likely consequences of internationalization of the Chinese renminbi for the global monetary system and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. It argues that if the process proves feasible, despite the difficult hurdles along the way, the results of internationalization would be constructive, both for China and the rest of the world. If emerging‐market central banks and other reserve managers (such as sovereign wealth funds) continue overwhelmingly to favor the dollar and a small set of other developed‐market reserve currencies as a store of value, the world risks a third crisis of the global reserve system. This would be a rerun in a somewhat different guise of the well‐known paradox described by economist Robert Triffin, whereby the demand for international liquidity, when loaded onto a small set of national currencies, ends up destabilizing the system as the key reserve suppliers issue more and more assets and hence build up unsustainable debts. (Such forces, Triffin argued, were a main cause of the 1930s crisis of the gold exchange standard; and as he predicted, those forces emerged again in the 1970s to destabilize the dollar‐and goldbased Bretton Woods system.) In today's global monetary system, the emergence of the renminbi (along with other developed‐ and emerging‐market currencies) as a potential reserve currency would expand and diversify the supply of reserve assets, enabling central banks to maintain large buffers against financial shocks while allowing the United States to stop issuing a large and growing bulk of the world's safe and liquid claims, and thus bearing the burden of an everexpanding, and ultimately questionable, debt to the rest of the world.     

Are related-party transactions beneficial or detrimental in emerging markets? New evidence of financial services agreements from China

This paper examines a new and underexplored form of related-party transactions in which Chinese listed companies sign financial services agreements with affiliated finance companies within the same business group. With FSAs, listed companies can readily finance through internal capital markets. However, some concerns controlling shareholders can use FSAs to embezzle funds of listed companies legitimately, thereby expropriating the wealth of minority shareholders. Using a staggered difference-in-differences model with fixed effects, we empirically examine the economic consequences of FSAs. We document that FSAs are detrimental to listed companies' market valuation and operating performance. This phenomenon mainly concentrates on companies without financial constraints and those with lower bankruptcy risks. Further analysis shows that sound corporate governance could inhibit the signing of FSAs ex-ante. This paper contributes to the literature on the economic consequences of related-party transactions in emerging markets. It also provides empirical support that the internal capital market of business groups in China is inefficient and offers controlling shareholders opportunities for tunneling.     

创业投资网络对投资绩效的影响研究——基于投资决策的中介效应检验

依据2007-2013年中国市场创业投资数据,运用基于Bootstrap抽样的结构方程模型,考量投资决策在投资网络影响机构投资绩效过程中的中介效应。结果表明:创业投资网络可以通过投资决策影响投资绩效,具有较高网络中心性或占据丰富结构洞位置的创业投资机构可以通过采用项目后期介入策略、地域分散投资策略和行业专业化投资策略,提高机构投资绩效。     

Reporting intangible assets: Voluntary disclosure practices of top emerging market companies

This study is the first to empirically examine the applicability of the Value Chain Scoreboard™ proposed by Lev (2001) as an alternative disclosure framework for intangible assets (IA). The context of the research is the top 200 emerging market companies, which are the focus of increasing international attention. We empirically examine the extent of IA disclosures and find that emerging market companies do actively engage in voluntary disclosure practices to disseminate mainly quantitative IA information to their global stakeholders. Corporate-specific factors such as the adoption of IFRS/U.S. GAAP, industry type, and price-to-book ratio are key influences significantly associated with the level of IA voluntary disclosure. In addition, country-specific factors, including risks associated with economic policies and legal systems, are found to be significantly associated with the level of IA disclosure.     

我国上市公司股权再融资的聚集效应及其成因研究

通过设计聚集因子，并对我国上市公司股权再融资行为进行实证研究，检验了股权再融资的聚集效应的存在性，并对其成因进行了深刻的分析。发现我国上市公司的聚集效应体现为两个层次：一方面，我国上市公司股权再融资总体发行存在着聚集效应。另一方面，三种融资方式之间也存在着交替出现的选择性的聚集效应。在行为金融的视觉下分别从市场和公司两个角度来分析再融资聚集效应和再融资决策的成因，实证结果表明公司内部需求、市场时机和从众行为是聚集效应的重要因素，最后文章提出一些政策性建议。