杭嘉湖地区城乡居民家庭金融状况的调查报告

通过问卷、访谈和实地观察等调查方法,对当前杭嘉湖地区城乡居民家庭金融状况进行深度观察,从家庭存款、银行贷款、闲置资金的使用情况、民间借贷具体分析城乡居民家庭金融的状况。调查表明:教育发达程度以及社会养老保障制度健全程度影响该地居民金融资产选择、城市居民与农村居民理财方式选择不同、城市居民与农村居民对于投入股市的资金差异较大、杭嘉湖地区紧密的关系网络影响民间借贷行为、城乡居民对于互联网借贷参与度不高。     

理财建议可以作为金融素养的替代吗?北大核心CSSCISSCI

金融素养的缺乏会阻碍居民家庭做出合理的金融决策,而合格的理财建议则可以改善居民家庭的金融决策。本文使用清华大学中国金融研究中心调查的数据,研究了居民家庭金融素养与理财建议需求之间的关系。研究发现,理财建议对金融素养不能起到替代的作用,具体来说金融素养高的家庭更可能对理财建议有需求。除此之外,还发现:(1)理财建议需求与家庭收入的关系是"驼峰"型的,而与户主年龄的关系是"U"型的;(2)家庭净财富、健康状况和户主的教育程度对家庭的理财建议需求有显著的正向影响;(3)户主为女性的家庭和户主已婚的家庭更可能咨询专业人员获取理财建议。     

中国家庭借贷需求与借贷渠道的偏好分析——基于亲缘关系的视角

基于中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),本文实证分析亲缘关系对中国居民家庭借贷需求与借贷渠道偏好的影响.研究表明,以户主直系兄弟姐妹数量为代理变量的亲缘关系对家庭借贷需求有显著的正向影响;亲缘关系强(即兄弟姐妹个数多)的家庭更倾向于关系型借贷;亲缘关系弱的家庭更倾向于银行等机构为主的非关系型借贷;亲缘关系强的家庭因教育的摊薄效应和相对更低的学历水平,难取得非关系型借贷优势,从而产生更多关系型借贷.     

中国家庭借贷需求与借贷渠道的偏好分析——基于亲缘关系的视角

基于中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),本文实证分析亲缘关系对中国居民家庭借贷需求与借贷渠道偏好的影响.研究表明,以户主直系兄弟姐妹数量为代理变量的亲缘关系对家庭借贷需求有显著的正向影响;亲缘关系强(即兄弟姐妹个数多)的家庭更倾向于关系型借贷;亲缘关系弱的家庭更倾向于银行等机构为主的非关系型借贷;亲缘关系强的家庭因教育的摊薄效应和相对更低的学历水平,难取得非关系型借贷优势,从而产生更多关系型借贷.     

房价预期与城镇居民家庭股市参与——理论探讨与微观经验证据

本文基于中国家庭金融调查数据,通过构建理论模型和实证检验分析了房价预期与家庭股市参与的关系,考察了行为金融偏差在房价预期影响股市参与过程中的作用,并根据背景风险、社会网络和户主特征进行异质性分析。结果表明:(1)房价上涨预期通过降低居民家庭的股票收益率预期和增加住房资产,进而降低居民家庭的股市参与概率和参与程度;(2)“心理账户”以及“有限关注”的存在显著弱化了房价上涨预期对家庭股市参与的负向作用;(3)房价上涨预期对股市参与概率和参与程度的负向作用在收入风险更高、健康状况更差、社会网络水平较低以及受教育程度偏低的家庭中更大。因此,稳定房价预期能够通过提升家庭股市参与,进而从需求角度促进股票市场的健康发展。     

东部地区农户借贷行为影响因素的实证研究——基于山东省1440个农户的调查数据

利用山东省1440个农户的实地调研数据,通过建立二元Logit模型和计数模型分别考察了影响农户借贷可能性和实际借贷数额的因素。研究结果表明,户主的文化程度、家庭支出、家庭余钱使用、在正规金融机构办理业务的次数、借款用途均显著影响农户的借贷可能性和实际借贷数额;户主年龄与借贷可能性两者之间的关系呈现倒U形,表明受教育程度高且年富力强的户主更容易获得数额较大的借贷。此外,户主的打工经历、家庭人均收入、借贷利率和借贷规范仅对实际借贷数额有着显著的影响。     

软信息、金融借贷与农户创业北大核心

提高农户个体的主观能动性对破解农户融资困境以及助推农户创业具有重要的现实意义。本文利用中国家庭追踪调查数据,通过构建“软信息-金融借贷-农户创业”的理论框架,结合Logistic模型和逐步回归法等,从金融借贷的中介视角实证检验了软信息对农户创业的影响。实证结果表明:社会网络、人格特征和风险态度均显著正向影响农户创业,正规借贷显著促进农户创业,而民间借贷对农户创业无显著影响;社会网络、人格特征和风险态度通过影响农户正规借贷进而促进农户创业,正规借贷起到部分中介效应,而民间借贷在该路径中不存在中介效应。鉴于此,本文认为要从源头上推动农户经济发展理念更新;优化农户创业的外部金融环境;金融机构要依托金融科技将农户软信息“硬化”,完善农户信用评级,甄选潜在创业者。     

农户正规借贷行为研究

本文基于中国家庭金融调查数据,描述农户经营性的正规借贷需求并探讨农户家庭正规借贷需求可得性的决定因素,包括家庭特征、户主的年龄结构、承包的土地面积。研究结果表明：农户正规借贷需求与正规贷款可获得性均主要取决于其生产经营方面的收入水平。     

新形势下种植大户借贷行为研究——以乌鲁木齐县为例

在2013年中央一号文件首次提出“家庭农场”的背景下,本文利用对乌鲁木齐县200户种植大户资金借贷情况调查的数据,从农户资金借贷发生率、借贷金额、借贷渠道、借贷方式及借贷用途等方面描述和分析了乌鲁木齐县种植大户的借贷行为特征,并运用Logistic模型估计种植大户借贷可得性的影响因素。研究结果表明,对农户借贷可得性产生显著影响的因素有家庭耕地面积、家庭收入水平、家庭人口数、户主年龄、文化程度、对银行贷款政策的了解程度、贷款效率等。     

金融借贷、家庭创业与农户返贫防范——基于贫困脆弱性视角北大核心

本文利用中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)2012—2018年四期调查数据,通过VEP方法测算农户家庭贫困脆弱性,研究金融借贷的返贫防范作用及影响机制。实证结果表明,金融借贷能显著降低农户家庭返贫风险,但借贷渠道不同,其返贫防范效果存在明显差异,表现为仅非正规金融借贷与未来返贫概率存在“U”型关系。机制检验发现,家庭创业是正规金融借贷防范农户家庭返贫的重要机制,而非正规金融借贷不能通过创业产生收入效应和网络信息福利效应,其返贫防控作用不明显。异质性分析发现,金融借贷能明显降低非创业、弱社会资本、乡村、西部地区农户家庭未来返贫概率。     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.     

Tournament-based incentives and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between tournament-based incentives, which are proxied by the difference between a firm's CEO pay and the median pay of the senior managers, and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that tournament-based incentives are positively related to firm acquisitiveness and acquiring firms' stock and operating performance. Further analysis indicates that positive acquisition performance increases the likelihood of the CEO being promoted from inside the acquiring firm. Our evidence is consistent with the view that tournament-based incentives motivate acquiring firms' managers to make greater efforts and take more risk that result in superior acquisition performance.     

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Using a large and unique patent‐merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.     

Trust and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

A number of studies suggest that social trust matters for investment. Using different measures of trust from World Values Survey, we show that countries where people display higher levels of trust engage in more cross-border M&A activities. When they do, these acquirers pay lower premiums. To the extent that these acquirers also tend to engage in larger acquisitions as well, our findings suggest that a larger selection pool of potential targets and higher value targets enable these acquirers to negotiate for lower premiums. We do not find evidence of the significant effect for target country trust levels. Hence, trust may benefit those acquiring firms in cross-border transactions.     

Director gender and mergers and acquisitions

Does director gender influence CEO empire building? Does it affect the bid premium paid for target firms? Less overconfident female directors less overestimate merger gains. As a result, firms with female directors are less likely to make acquisitions and if they do, pay lower bid premia. Using acquisition bids by S&P 1500 companies during 1997–2009 we find that each additional female director is associated with 7.6% fewer bids, and each additional female director on a bidder board reduces the bid premium paid by 15.4%. Our findings support the notion that female directors help create shareholder value through their influence on acquisition decisions. We also discuss other possible interpretations of our findings.