当“灰犀牛”遇到“黑天鹅”——网民对邮轮旅游负面事件的风险感知变化

邮轮旅游因其内在脆弱属性,一直受到各类负面事件的影响。2020年初“钻石公主号”邮轮的新冠疫情跨境蔓延引起全球网络关注,极大地影响了公众对邮轮旅游的风险感知及消费决策。本文以知乎网站评论为数据来源,将疫情发生和全球邮轮停运为时间节点,把邮轮负面事件划分为3个阶段,运用词频分析、语义网络分析、情感分析结合空间分析等方法,探究中国网民的风险感知变化。研究发现: “灰犀牛阶段”,邮轮正常运营,网民风险感知聚焦于自然灾害和救援开展;新冠疫情初发时的“灰犀牛遇到黑天鹅阶段”,邮轮逐渐停航,网民风险感知聚焦于邮轮公共卫生安全;疫情全面爆发后的“黑天鹅阶段”,邮轮全面停航,网民风险感知包括自然灾害、火灾、疫情等多个方面,感知内容趋向分散。同时,网民的风险感知空间分布存在差异,沿海地区网民对邮轮负面事件多以正面和微弱负面情绪为主;但内陆地区网民因对邮轮旅游了解程度相对较低,其感知负面居多。当前,新冠疫情仍在全球蔓延,研究内容可为邮轮旅游的疫后市场恢复和可持续发展提供参考。     

与新冠肺炎疫情相关的旅游者行为研究——回顾与反思

旅游者行为研究一直是国内外旅游学界关注的重点和热点。在全球旅游业遭遇新冠肺炎疫情带来的巨大冲击和挑战时,英文期刊上与新冠疫情相关的旅游者行为研究也与日俱增。虽然英文学界对与新冠疫情相关的旅游研究有过零星的、整体上的批判性思考,但鲜见对旅游者行为这一具体研究领域最新进展和实质贡献的讨论。基于对8种旅游类英文SSCI期刊截至2021年8月31日所载83篇论文的分析,本文回顾了与新冠疫情相关的旅游者行为研究进展,并评价了这些研究的实质贡献。从研究主题看,现有文献集中在“风险感知与出游意向”“旅游购买决策”“实际旅游中的行为与体验”和“对技术的态度”等四个方面。从研究取向看,定量研究占主导;与之相对应的是,问卷调查是主要的数据收集渠道。虽然大部分研究明确提及使用了某种或某几种理论,但主要是应用现有理论来提出所假设的变量之间的关系,或解释新冠疫情背景下新的旅游消费现象,并未对现有理论框架、概念做出重大改变。未来的研究还应该考虑运用定性方法、大数据分析技术和实验法,挖掘、识别、验证新冠疫情作为公共健康危机的独特属性以及与之关联的独特的旅游者行为和旅游消费现象,以期更好地实现概念化、理论化,并在中国特色的疫情防控实践中,更好地实现与新冠疫情有关的旅游者行为研究的本土化。     

旅游衔接2030年可持续发展目标——文献回顾与未来议程

尽管旅游业被视为落实2030年可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals,SDGs）的重要工具,但很少有研究系统梳理相关文献,导致我们对该领域的研究进展和知识缺口不明确。文章以2015—2021年Web of Science^TM数据库收录的82篇旅游类SSCI期刊文献为样本,旨在通过梳理旅游学术共同体对2030年SDGs的研究响应,揭示研究发展脉络与学术热点,并启发未来研究方向。结果发现：（1）旅游衔接2030年SDGs研究已得到旅游学术共同体的积极响应,总体经历了初期探索和快速发展两个阶段;（2）研究热点集中在旅游与消除贫困（SDG 1）、良好健康与福祉（SDG 3）、性别平等（SDG 5）、清洁饮水和卫生设施（SDG 6）、经济适用的清洁能源（SDG 7）、体面工作和经济增长（SDG 8）、减少不平等（SDG 10）、负责任消费和生产（SDG 12）、气候行动（SDG 13）、和平正义（SDG 16）等10个方面;（3）旅游业既是落实2030年SDGs的积极贡献者,但也面临诸多潜在挑战与外部威胁;（4）未来需重点拓展旅游衔接SDGs的研究框架,审视旅游对SDGs的贡献与挑战,厘清旅游影响SDGs的权衡与协同,观照旅游衔接SDGs的情境因素。     

国家公园旅游发展对周边社区居民生活质量的影响——以黄山风景区为例

旅游发展是国家公园生态价值转化的重要路径与国家公园全民公益性的重要体现,周边社区居民是国家公园体制建设与旅游发展中的核心利益相关者之一,其生活质量影响国家公园生态保护与高质量发展。本文利用黄山风景区门户社区居民调查数据,探讨了处于探索阶段、参与阶段、发展阶段和巩固阶段等不同旅游生命周期阶段的社区居民生活质量差异及其成因。研究表明：（1）不同旅游发展阶段的社区居民生活质量差异显著,居民生活质量随社区旅游发展阶段演进而提升的现象具有滞后效应;（2）居民生计资本对不同旅游发展阶段社区居民生活质量的提升具有差异性;（3）随着社区旅游发展水平的不断提高,人力资本对居民生活质量的提升处于主导地位。     

农业文化遗产地农户区位对生计旅游转型的影响——兼论区位条件的生计资本意义

农业文化遗产地农户生计旅游转型与空间地理位置存在关联，旅游环境下区位条件已成为农户生计发展不可忽视的重要因素。遵循顺序解说型设计，该研究采用逻辑回归评估区位条件对生计旅游转型的影响，并通过质性分析探究区位条件对生计发展的作用机理，结果发现：（1）旅游视角下农户生计分化类型在空间上存在一定的分布规律，生计旅游化程度随农户与景区距离的增加而下降，农户区位对生计旅游化转型具有显著影响；（2）既靠近景区又靠近公路的住宅具有旅游经营优势，优势区位助推农户发展形成旅游经营生计，且住宅区位已呈现资本化，成为旅游经营生计中需要投入的资本要素；（3）住宅区位资本形成源于农户住宅的功能转换及外部辐射增值，游客在空间上的集聚及扩散决定了住宅位置的消费市场可达性，形成住宅区位的资本交换与极差地租；（4）景区对邻近社区具有农地、人力资源依赖性，邻近社区投入资源并参与景区旅游生产，社区农户为此获得旅游发展的制度性红利，旅游参与机会及发展福利伴随制度安排的演进而变化。研究有助于认识区位条件对农户生计的影响，对把控旅游地生计资本结构也具有重要意义。     

旅游地社会-生态系统成长模式研究——以金寨县为例

旅游引发的自然、社会、物质和人力资本等流量与流向的变化,关系着旅游地社会-生态系统运行的轨迹和可持续状态。基于循环经济相关理论,尝试构建旅游地社会-生态系统“五流”分析框架,以金寨县为案例地,使用PCA-OWA方法,分析2008—2019年旅游地社会-生态系统的资本变化、成长阶段及成长模式,并对其演化轨迹进行情景模拟。结果表明：（1）旅游业通过直接影响人口流动、商品和服务流动、信息流动以及各种资源消耗等“流”因素,使得金寨县旅游地社会-生态系统的物质和人力资本逐步增加,但社会资本仍处于较低水平,自然资本消耗较为明显;（2）12年间金寨县社会-生态系统呈现逐步好转的态势,其成长可划分为2008—2011年低水平匀速增长及2012—2019年快速成长2个阶段;（3）外生模式是金寨县目前持续的运行状态,未来在环境保护与经济发展关系的不断优化下有可能进入内生模式。随着旅游活动的扰动增强,旅游地社会-生态系统内部关系更加复杂,深入探究旅游地社会-生态系统成长的内在机理,可为区域可持续发展的政策制定提供科学参考。     

暗夜星空旅游研究进展——基于2001—2021年英文文献的综述

近几年中国星空旅游市场快速崛起,然而国内学术界对这一旅游新业态的研究明显不足。本文采用传统的文献分析方法,对国际暗夜星空旅游的发展脉络与研究进展进行了系统梳理。研究发现：（1）在全球暗夜保护运动的推动下,星空的旅游价值得到发掘,暗夜星空体验项目在西方国家已趋于成熟;（2）国际暗夜星空旅游的实证研究于2011年起步,文献数量持续上升,质性研究与量化研究同步发展,但研究主要集中在欧洲和北美等发达国家和地区;（3）通过分析与对比天文旅游,本文界定了暗夜星空旅游的概念并探讨了暗夜星空旅游的主要特征;（4）国际暗夜星空旅游研究主要集中在光污染测量与暗夜星空旅游发展、暗夜星空旅游发展效益、暗夜星空旅游体验及其影响、暗夜星空目的地的旅游发展4个方面。对于正处在萌芽成长期的中国星空旅游而言,国际研究成果为此旅游新业态的发展与管理提供了一定的理论基础,同时也促进国内学者结合本土暗夜星空旅游市场展开具体的实证研究,逐渐建立暗夜星空旅游研究的中西对话。     

旅游发展影响下农业文化遗产社区韧性感知研究——以河北宣化传统葡萄园为例

农业文化遗产作为重要的旅游资源之一,其动态保护关系到遗产地社区的生计选择、农民的生活改善和乡村的可持续发展。面对旅游活动所带来的一系列人为干扰,遗产地社区如何应对关系到农业文化遗产的可持续利用以及乡村振兴的实现。本文以河北宣化传统葡萄园为例,运用基于地方居民感知的指标测量法,针对社区居民进行旅游发展影响下农业文化遗产地社区韧性感知研究。研究结果显示：（1）旅游发展对于农业文化遗产地社区存在着较为积极的影响;（2）农业文化遗产地社区韧性各个子系统受旅游发展影响程度存在着一定的差别,由高到低分别为社会、生态、文化、经济、制度;（3）各旅游因子发挥了不同的作用,其作用程度由高到低分别为旅游设施因子、旅游形象因子、旅游产品因子和旅游规模因子。本文探究了农业文化遗产社区韧性在旅游发展中受到何种影响,分析其形成原因,以期实现农业文化遗产保护与可持续旅游的协调发展。     

新冠肺炎疫情对中国旅游业的影响及其应对探讨

新冠肺炎疫情给全球旅游业带来了巨大的冲击和挑战,深入探讨疫情对旅游业的影响及应对成为各界关注的重点。本文从居民出游意愿、场所空间容量、市场经营主体、旅游政策等供需关系方面分析了新冠肺炎疫情对中国旅游业的影响。研究表明：（1）疫情对居民出游消费信心、意愿和能力造成较大影响,但潜在出游需求仍然存在。（2）疫情对旅游地空间环境造成较大物理和心理压缩,与旅游关联紧密的文化产业、娱乐业的生产空间容量也受到了间接影响。（3）疫情对旅游产业链、旅游市场主体经营等方面造成了全面且深远的影响。（4）疫情防控常态化下旅游政策供给以“流动管制”和“行业纾困”并重为主。面对疫情的持续影响,建议着重从组织响应、空间响应和企业韧性3个方面进一步强化旅游业应对能力,即：完善业外支撑、业内驱动、业界保障的三位一体组织响应体系;构建旅游目的地（点）-连结（线）-网络结构（网络）的三级协同空间响应机制;从企业组织、产品服务、管理和营销、市场品牌、员工心理等5个方面加强旅游企业韧性建设,以增强中国旅游业恢复发展能力。     

乡村旅游聚落农户生计模式演化研究——野三坡旅游区苟各庄村案例实证

乡村旅游发展正在对乡村农户生计产生深刻的影响.文章以英国海外发展部可持续生计理论为基础,采用田野调查等多种方法,以河北野三坡旅游区苟各庄村为案例,研究了旅游影响下乡村聚落农户生计问题.研究发现:旅游业正深刻改变着乡村聚落均质化的农户生计模式,使得农户生计模式发生分层和空间极化,并形成旅游主导型和兼业型两种生计模式.对生计模式的核心组成部分生计资本、生计策略、生计后果进行比较,发现旅游主导型“专业化”生计模式远远好于非旅游农户兼业化的“多元化”生计模式.“生存型”生计和“发展型”生计模式的对比研究,对于建设小康阶段乡村农户就业和发展选择有一定的理论意义和现实价值.     

Heritage tourism and livelihood sustainability of a resettled rural community: Mount Sanqingshan World Heritage Site,China

Tourism and related development can lead to the displacement and resettlement of communities, disrupting local livelihood systems, socio-political processes and organizations. However, limited attention has been paid to community resettlement in the tourism context. Taking Yinhuwan village at Mount Sanqingshan World Heritage Site in China as an example, this study examines the results of tourism and resettlement on the livelihoods of this rural community and the extent to which tourism-related livelihood strategies contribute to community livelihood sustainability. A sustainable livelihood framework is adopted to guide the analysis. Face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted with management officials, community leaders and village residents through three field investigations in 2013. It was found that traditional livelihood methods have been largely replaced by tourism, which has become the primary livelihood strategy for the resettled community. Despite current economic benefits, high dependency on tourism-related opportunities as the single livelihood option may diminish the sustainability of local livelihoods. The current resettlement plan highlights short-term economic impacts on the affected community, overlooking their socio-cultural concerns and long-term livelihood sustainability. Possible measures are discussed to diversify livelihood options and mitigate potential challenges for the affected community so as to ensure their long-term benefits and increase future options.     

Covid-19 and tourism vulnerability

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted tourism and leisure activities worldwide, especially in the hospitality sector. This paper has a conceptual and empirical motivation based on two objectives. First, it identifies several of the primary factors behind the vulnerability of tourism to COVID-19 (tourism dependency, market structure, the supply of rural accommodation, and health incidence of the pandemic). Second, it constructs a vulnerability index to COVID-19 using Spain and its 50 provinces as case. The main results obtained indicate that tourism to the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, the provinces of the Mediterranean coast, and Madrid, in which the state capital is located, present higher vulnerability to COVID-19, yet with different underlying factors. Our methodology and results are of interest to policymakers in terms of the short- and medium-term strategic policies that can be employed to mitigate current and future shocks.     

The effects of tourism development on rural livelihoods in the Okavango Delta,Botswana

The Community-Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) program in Botswana aims to achieve biodiversity conservation and rural development in rich biodiversity areas like the Okavango Delta. CBNRM assumes that if rural communities derive benefits from natural resources, they will be obliged to use such resources sustainably. Using the sustainable livelihoods framework, this study analyzes the effects of tourism development through CBNRM on rural livelihoods at Khwai, Sankoyo and Mababe in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, using primary and secondary data sources. Results of long-term surveys and in-depth interviews indicate that the three communities have forgone traditional livelihood activities such as hunting and gathering, livestock and crop farming to participate in tourism through CBNRM. Livelihoods in these villages have been improved as a result. Basic needs such as shelter, employment and income and social services like water supply systems, transportation, scholarships and payment of funeral expenses are now provided to community members and funded with income from CBNRM. Social capital has been built up in order to agree, manage and develop the CBNRM process. These results show that tourism development in these villages is achieving its goal of improved livelihoods, contradicting claims that community development projects are failing to achieve rural development.     

农业文化遗产旅游地不同类型农户的农地利用行为演变分异——以哈尼梯田为例

农户生计多样化与维持传统农业生产之间的矛盾是当前农业文化遗产保护的核心问题,旅游发展被认为是弥合二者关系的有效路径。遗产旅游地农户生计与农地利用问题的研究,可从实践层面揭示旅游发展环境下农户生计变化对农业生产的影响。文章基于元阳县12个村寨401家农户的研究表明:(1)劳动力就业呈现非农化转移,农户生计由此分化形成务农主导、务工主导、均衡兼营、旅游参与、旅游主导5种发展类型;(2)非农化发展总体上对农地保护与利用形成负面影响,对旱地的利用变化主要表现在种植结构上,对水梯田的利用变化则表现在弃耕撂荒、农地流转、劳动力投入等多个方面;(3)不同类型农户的农地利用行为改变存在差异,生计旅游化转型的农户其传统农业生产维持不及留守务农农户,劳动力投入与省工性的物质要素投入行为改变明显,但在农地保有与劳动力投入方面优于外出务工农户;(4)旅游的弥合效应与遗产保护学界的理论构想存在差异,研究区弥合效应仅在旅游从业农户群体中有所体现,这类农户根据旅游从业特点、遗产保护要求形成了旅游化兼业模式,生计压力之下对家庭劳动力的充分利用促成了农户兼顾传统农业生产。遗产保护须多方审视旅游的正反向效应,在遗产保护基础和前提下,维持适度旅游发展规模以保持农户多产兼业才是可持续发展之路。     

Assessing the sustainability of tourism-related livelihoods in an urban World Heritage Site

The relationship between UNESCO World Heritage Sites and tourism has been described as a double-edged sword, with the benefits of tourism countered by its adverse impacts. To the extent that tourism-related livelihoods are dependent on World Heritage status, the loss of that status may have significant adverse effects, especially for poor people. The Sustainable Livelihood Framework has been used to analyse the development, or otherwise, of rural communities in poor regions of the world. This paper uses this approach to examine the urban poor of a World Heritage Site in Thailand, The Historic City of Ayutthaya. As a consequence of tourism and urban industrial development, not only has there been conflict between the urban poor and the Thai government within the designated heritage area, there is also conflict with the neighbouring industrial zones. This has resulted in fears that World Heritage status may be lost. Viewed within DFID’s Sustainable Livelihood Framework, lack of capital and little community participation are factors which contribute significantly to an unsustainable livelihood. However, this research concludes that using self-reliance as a measurement of people’s livelihood to determine ‘sustainability’ is inappropriate in an urban-tourism context because people living in urban areas rely heavily on external sources.     

Heritage Tourism in Rural Areas: Challenges for Improving Socio-economic Impacts

Many developing countries seek to utilize cultural heritage sites as resources for socio-economic development through heritage tourism. When rural area is the context of heritage tourism, effort is needed to establish linkages between tourism and the local economy by addressing the following issues: lack of skilled human resources, capital, access to credits, and other assistance; leakages; and dominance of urban players. This paper examines the impacts of heritage tourism on rural livelihoods using Borobudur in Central Java, Indonesia, as the case study. Further, it proposes rural industry promotion as one of the ways to establishing better linkages to tourism.     

The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on domestic tourism: A DEMATEL method analysis on quarantine decisions

Countries' most effective methods to reduce the impact of outbreaks are quarantine the regions during the pandemic periods. Quarantine decisions during a pandemic directly affect the hospitality industry. There is no universal guideline regarding the quarantine decision during a pandemic. There is a gap in the literature on making the right quarantine decisions to decrease the negative effect of a pandemic on the hospitality industry. To fill this gap, this study uses a decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method to help countries for quarantine decisions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the critical hospitality industry indicators is the inter-regional travel flow between regions for local tourism. Data from the household domestic tourism survey obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) is used to acquire the number of people entering and exiting among regions. This study's findings indicate that Istanbul has an essential impact on Turkey's rest. The results also demonstrate that the DEMATEL method provides convenient solutions for quarantine decisions during a pandemic. The DEMATEL application results concerning the COVID-19 pandemic effect might shed light on the hospitality industry’s prospects and challenges. This study's findings might be adopted to prepare the hospitality industry for the COVID-19 pandemic and similar pandemic.     

A tale of four futures: Tourism academia and COVID-19

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented “super-shock” for the tourism industry. How tourism academia relates to this unpredictable context is anyhow not yet evident. This study uses a qualitative scenario method to propose four possible futures for tourism academia considering the pandemic and to draw attention to key factors of these future developments. Nine interviews were held with tourism (full/ordinary) professors across Europe, America, Asia, and the Pacific Region to gain expert insights. As a result, four scenarios are proposed for tourism education, industry collaboration, research, and discipline identity. Recovery (“new sustainability” or “revenge-tourism”) for tourism academia if the pandemic impact is short-term, and Adaptancy (“bridging the gap” or “decline”) for tourism academia if the COVID-19 impact is long-lasting. Key factors for the way forward are finally discussed and contributions of our findings are highlighted.     

Protected areas,tourism and community livelihoods linkages: a comprehensive analysis approach

This study explores the linkages among protected areas, tourism and community livelihoods in a rural setting. The Chobe National Park and Chobe Enclave Community Trust, Botswana, provide the context for this study. Data were collected through a community asset mapping exercise, semi-structured interviews, and published and unpublished data sources. Data were analyzed and interpreted using the community capital framework (CCF) that provided a comprehensive approach. The study identified that protected areas, tourism and community livelihoods linkages have many inter-dependent community capitals relationships. The enhancement of community capitals was facilitated by a shift from government-controlled to multi-level governance arrangements that recognize community wildlife-based tourism potential co-exist with protected areas, have influence on community livelihoods and nurture positive linkages. Results also indicate that linkages are dependent on community capitals transformation or lack thereof; the linkages have an influential effect on the whole ecosystem on which protected areas, tourism and community livelihoods operate. The study provides a new methodological approach in understanding the changing relationships among tourism, conservation and community development by expanding community capitals framework. This study's findings also inform planners, managers, and policy makers to critically evaluate the processes of change and devise interventions accordingly.