换汤不换药?游客满意度测量的迷思

在旅游体验研究中,游客满意度一直是个重要问题,游客满意度影响积极口碑、忠诚和重访.目前,游客满意度研究主要以期望-不一致模型为基础,认为满意是期望与不一致的函数,而没有从期望-不一致模型的适用条件、旅游产品享乐消费的特点出发,考虑使用该模型测量游客满意度的效度问题.文章通过深度访谈和参与观察发现,对游客满意度的测量并不满足期望-不一致模型的前提条件,即预测性旅游期望并不总是存在.游客满意度与在场体验阶段的互动、所得收益和所做牺牲的比较、对相似产品消费经验的比较有关,而不只是表现与预测性期望相比较的结果.尽管已有研究使用其他方法测量游客满意度,但并未触及游客满意度问题的核心.研究认为,对游客满意度的测量理应测量对体验的满意度,测量旅游者的情感体验,而不只是对产品物理属性和服务质量的测量.将使用移动技术获得的实时情感数据与访谈相结合,有助于旅游目的地或企业了解旅游者在自然情境中的情感体验和满意度,进而有效地设计、管理体验,保持竞争力,实现经济效益.     

Object detection based on visual memory: a feature learning and feature imagination process

ABSTRACT

Visual memory plays an important role for the human’s visual system to detect objects. The features of an object stored in the visual memory have much lower dimensions than the features contained within an image. We simulate the visual memory as a feature learning and feature imagination (FLFI) process to build an object detection algorithm. The method is constructed by a bottom-up feature learning and a top-down feature imagination. The proposed object detection method is tested using publicly available benchmark data sets, and the result indicates that it is fast and more robust.     

NOMINAL GDP TARGETING AND CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATIVENESS

In the literature on monetary economics, there is the ‘inflationary bias’ result which predicts that the rate of inflation will be biased towards a higher level under discretionary monetary policy than under a rule‐based policy regime. It is established that a credible nominal target can eliminate this ‘inflationary bias’. In this paper, we examine the case of nominal GDP targeting, which is a rule‐based monetary regime. Depending on the degree of conservativeness by the central bank, we show in a stylized model the choice of different combination of inflation and real GDP targets can still result in an ‘inflationary bias’, and there also exists the possibility of a ‘dis‐inflationary bias’.     

刺芪参胶囊的制备工艺研究

目的:探索刺芪参胶囊的制备工艺。方法:采用正交实验,以总皂苷质量为指标,优化提取工艺;采用单因素实验优化制剂工艺。结果:在最佳提取工艺条件下,刺芪参胶囊提取物中的总皂苷含量为12.19 mg·g-1;以糊精作为填充剂、硬脂酸镁为助流剂、95%乙醇为黏合剂制备胶囊剂。结论:刺芪参胶囊的制备工艺稳定可行。     

标志性政府运作型展览会对城市展览业发展的负面效应——以广交会为例

无论国内外,对事件影响研究均是热点课题之一,西方学者对事件社会影响关注较多,而国内较热衷于经济影响,其中又以正面效应居多。展览会是事件领域重要组成,而1957年在广州举办至今一年两届的广交会,属于典型的标志性政府运作型展览会。研究从经济视角,通过文献分析、深度访谈等方法,探讨了广交会对城市展览业发展的负面效应。结果显示:广交会通过利率实现及体系运作对广州展览业形成挤出效应,实际造成挤出效应的是后者;广交会从规模、展品及品牌三方面对其他展览会形成遮蔽效应;对城市展览业发展有重要影响的保障体系资源往广交会倾斜,造成虹吸效应。最后,构建了标志性政府运作型展览会对城市展览业发展的三重负面效应框架。     

废旧机电产品再循环模式研究

能否有效处理日益增加的废旧机电产品对我国经济的可持续发展有着重要的影响。文章从产品的角度提出基于循环经济的“3个循环”的概念，并在分析现有废旧机电产品循环模式的基础上提出第二循环模式，同时给出了相应的产品剩余寿命评价模型。     

Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields

This article develops and empirically implements an arbitrage-free,dynamic term structure model with "priced" factor and regime-shiftrisks. The risk factors are assumed to follow a discrete-timeGaussian process, and regime shifts are governed by a discrete-timeMarkov process with state-dependent transition probabilities.This model gives closed-form solutions for zero-coupon bondprices, an analytic representation of the likelihood functionfor bond yields, and a natural decomposition of expected excessreturns to components corresponding to regime-shift and factorrisks. Using monthly data on U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bondyields, we show a critical role of priced, state-dependent regime-shiftrisks in capturing the time variations in expected excess returns,and document notable differences in the behaviors of the factorrisk component of the expected returns across high and low volatilityregimes. Additionally, the state dependence of the regime-switchingprobabilities is shown to capture an interesting asymmetry inthe cyclical behavior of interest rates. The shapes of the termstructure of volatility of bond yield changes are also verydifferent across regimes, with the well-known hump being largelya low-volatility regime phenomenon.     

探赜共享经济在中小城市的"寒流"之殇

共享经济作为移动互联网时代的新商业模式,是拉动我国经济社会发展的新动能和强引擎。但近些年来,共享经济在中小城市发展遭遇"寒流"、陷入瓶颈,主要原因在于:一是共享经济模式难以在中小城市发挥规模效应,甚至出现边际成本逆向递增;二是同质化的共享经济项目在中小城市盲目扩张,"羊群效应"引发市场产能过度投放;三是共享经济在中小城市迅速挤占传统经济市场份额,造成社会不稳定;四是共享经济盈利模式不适应中小城市商业生态和资本运作现实,导致资产泡沫。为破除共享经济发展的困境,带动共享经济走出"寒冬",推动共享经济实现平稳、可持续发展,提出如下建议:一是破除束缚共享经济发展的体制瓶颈,完善共享经济在中小城市运作机制;二是构建以中小城市消费者保护为核心的立体化共享经济监管运作体系,实施全方位监管;三是引导和支持共享经济企业基于消费者实际需求打造可持续的盈利模式,构建健康的生态系统;四是促进中小城市金融服务与共享经济的深度融合和平衡发展,缓解共享经济企业融资难题。