China and international market integration: Evidence from the law of one price in the Middle East and Africa

We model market integration in the Middle East and Africa by analyzing price dispersion and testing the law of one price (LOP) on highly-comparable actual local retail prices of 135 goods and services across 23 countries in the region over the period of 1990–2016. Second-generation panel estimators are applied to four price benchmarks: Regional average, South Africa, China, and US prices. Cross-regional price dispersion diminishes considerably over time up to 2008, particularly for non-tradeables around China price. The test of LOP indicates the percentage of convergent prices is highest in China price benchmark, followed by US, South Africa, and regional average benchmarks. Direct estimation of the convergence speed confirms this order. Overall, the results show evidence of increasing market integration in Middle East and Africa but it appears to be driven by global forces and, especially, the rise of China as a new economic power. The results show that some emerging market economies, such as China, can step up and promote integration while traditional economic powerhouses, such as the USA and UK, disengage from international economic relations.     

政策不确定性、财政扩张与区域商业银行风险——基于中国地方官员变更和银行业的证据

文章利用2007-2017年我国93家区域商业银行的面板数据，并结合省级宏观经济数据和地方官员变更数据，实证考察了中国地方官员变更引起的经济政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的重要影响。研究结果表明：（1）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性增大了区域商业银行风险；（2）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性，通过提高银行的资产收益率降低了商业银行风险；而不确定性时期的财政扩张，通过降低银行资产收益率增大了商业银行风险；并且财政扩张的负面影响大于政策不确定性的正面影响；（3）各省的市委书记发生职位更替引起的政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的影响更大。文章研究为新时代背景下的金融供给侧结构性改革、政府宏观经济政策的制定以及财政体制与金融体制之间的联系提供参考。     

ECONOMIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN CHINA: AN INTERPRETATIVE SURVEY OF THE ‘TURNING POINT’ DEBATE

Has the Chinese economy approached the ‘Lewisian turning point’ that marks the ending of the initial phase of industrial transformation fuelled by surplus labour? In this paper we undertake an interpretative survey of the literature on this issue, in the context of China's labour market conditions prior to the reforms and structural change of the past three decades. The available evidence is mixed, and our assessment makes a strong case for probing institutional constraints to labour mobility from an economy‐wide perspective, going beyond the confines of the rural economy.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

入世以来两岸经贸关系发展中的问题及其影响

入世6年来,两岸经贸快速发展,但台湾在祖国大陆贸易和利用外资中的地位不断下降。两岸经贸关系至今仍未实现正常化,这对两岸经济发展均带来不利的影响。     

服务贸易对浙江经济增长影响的实证分析

本文实证检验了服务贸易对浙江GDP增长的影响,发现浙江服务贸易出口会促进经济增长,进口则会制约经济增长。而且出口、进口均是GDP增长的格兰杰原因。在尝试性地对这些结果进行相应解释的基础上,提出了发展服务贸易、促进浙江经济增长的建议。     

Assessing the growth-inducing impact of the Appalachian Development Highway System in southern Ohio: Did policy promote change?

The concept of “inducing growth” is typically considered an adverse consequence of a project on the land use system. In certain instances, however, the desire to induce growth and foster land use change is a focus of land use policy. Such is the example of the Appalachian Highway Development System (AHDS) program initiated by the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) during the late 1960s. With the goal of providing highway infrastructure to improve assess to a geographically isolated and historically impoverished region, the ADHS has added nearly 3000 miles of highway to the Appalachian landscape. The degree to which highway investment has contributed to regional growth remains a controversial point and tractable methods to quickly assess landscape change given a project of this magnitude are elusive. In this paper a portion of the AHDS trending through southern Ohio is examined using data acquired from the Landsat series of satellites. Beginning with a pre-highway condition in 1976, a 26 year time horizon, concluding in 2002, was analyzed based on a post-classification change detection methodology. Results of this investigation revealed slight, yet significant, levels of urban expansion within a 10 km corridor along the path of AHDS Corridor D/State Route 32. Beyond this buffer zone the land use system evidenced more stability, suggesting that as distance increased from Corridor D/State Route 32, reduced accessibility also reduced the attractiveness of land for urban uses. Relating these results back to the infrastructure investment policies of the ARC demonstrates that growth did result from the construction of Corridor D and supports previous findings that land development based on highway construction is extremely time-sensitive.     

论本币升值对国内物价的影响路径

本币升值可通过实体经济、虚拟经济以及货币政策三个途径影响一国的国内价格;本币升值通过国内物价影响经济稳定存在一个正反馈机制;从短期来看,人民币升值不仅不能抑制国内物价上涨,还可能推动国内物价的上涨。     

转型进程、发展战略转变与金融转型

随着经济转型从体制转型阶段进入到经济发展阶段,中国的经济发展战略也应当从比较优势转向竞争优势。而转型进程以及发展战略的转变都内在统一于经济发展的虚拟化进程当中。现代经济发展的虚拟化强化了金融在整个经济体系中的核心作用,因而随着中国成为完全市场经济国家,金融转型的成败将对中国向好的市场经济迈进起着决定性的作用。     

制约东北振兴的金融因素分析与建议

区域经济增长离不开区域金融发展的必要支持。东北地区金融发展水平的相对落后，不仅制约了金融推动经济发展功能的发挥，而且在一定程度上也阻碍经济的进一步发展。本文主要探讨了制约东北地区经济发展的金融支持因素，在此基础上有针对性地提出一些对策建议。论文指出，要促进东北地区的经济发展，就必须加强区域金融合作，要形成金融产业群，协调发展各类金融机构，合理配置区域金融资源，加强金融创新等。